The influence of perception of forgetting and gender, ethnicity, and closeness on likelihood of caregiving

As life expectancy increases, the population of older adults is increasing rapidly. The caregiving of older parents by adult children has become a normative experience. Much of the gerontological literature has examined the caregiving experience, particularly in terms of the stresses involved. However, research is only beginning to examine the factors which motivate adult children to begin caregiving. The research described here examined how an elderly parent's memory behavior might influence caregiving decisions. In addition, gender, ethnicity, and parent-adult child closeness were examined to explore how these individual difference variables might influence those caregiving decisions.^ Participants read one of two vignettes describing a social visit with an elderly widow (target). In the vignette, the elderly target experiences several instances of forgetting. The vignettes depicted forgetting behavior established in pilot work as normal or serious. The normal forgetting vignette did not arouse concern and the serious forgetting vignette did arouse concern when the middle-aged participants imagined their mothers in the role of the vignette target. Participants rated their likelihood of engaging in eight caregiving behaviors if their mothers behaved like the vignette target. They also rated their closeness with their own mothers.^ Multivariate analyses of variance indicated main effects for vignette type, gender, ethnicity, and attachment. The likelihood of caregiving was higher when forgetting was more serious and when participants were female, Hispanic, and were highly attached to their mothers. Interaction effects showed that gender differences decreased with increased seriousness of forgetting, and ethnic differences were only significant for the normal forgetting condition.^ Multiple regression analyses indicated that attachment was the most significant predictor of likelihood of caregiving. Gender and ethnicity predicted specific caregiving behaviors. Females were more likely to engage in phoning and cooking, and Hispanics were more likely to engage in visiting and suggesting mother move in. ^

An autoregressive conditional filtering process to remove intraday seasonal volatility and its application to testing the noisy rational expectations model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Effect of performance feedback on perceived knowledge and likelihood to pursue continuing education

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of performance feedback on Athletic Trainers’ (ATs) perceived knowledge (PK) and likelihood to pursue continuing education (CE). The investigation was grounded in the theories of “the definition of the situation” (Thomas & Thomas, 1928) and the “illusion of knowing,” (Glenberg, Wilkinson, & Epstein, 1982) suggesting that PK drives behavior. This investigation measured the degree to which knowledge gap predicted CE seeking behavior by providing performance feedback designed to change PK. A pre-test post-test control-group design was used to measure PK and likelihood to pursue CE before and after assessing actual knowledge. ATs (n=103) were randomly sampled and assigned to two groups, with and without performance feedback. Two independent samples t-tests were used to compare groups on the difference scores of the dependent variables. Likelihood to pursue CE was predicted by three variables using multiple linear regression: perceived knowledge, pre-test likelihood to pursue CE, and knowledge gap. There was a 68.4% significant difference (t101=2.72, p=0.01, ES=0.45) between groups in the change scores for likelihood to pursue CE because of the performance feedback (Experimental group=13.7% increase; Control group=4.3% increase). The strongest relationship among the dependent variables was between pre-test and post-test measures of likelihood to pursue CE (F2,102=56.80, p<0.01, r=0.73, R2=0.53). The pre- and post-test predictive relationship was enhanced when group was included in the model. In this model [YCEpost=0.76XCEpre-0.34 Xgroup+2.24+E], group accounted for a significant amount of unique variance in predicting CE while the pre-test likelihood to pursue CE variable was held constant (F3,102=40.28, p<0.01, r=0.74, R2=0.55). Pre-test knowledge gap, regardless of group allocation, was a linear predictor of the likelihood to pursue CE (F1,102=10.90, p=.01, r=.31, R2=.10). In this investigation, performance feedback significantly increased participants’ likelihood to pursue CE. Pre-test knowledge gap was a significant predictor of likelihood to pursue CE, regardless if performance feedback was provided. ATs may have self-assessed and engaged in internal feedback as a result of their test-taking experience. These findings indicate that feedback, both internal and external, may be necessary to trigger CE seeking behavior.

Essays on durable goods consumption and firm innovation

This dissertation comprises three individual chapters. Chapter Two examines how free riding across neighbors influenced the diffusion of color television sets in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors concerning its patent output. Chapter Four discusses how knowledge stocks influence a patenting firm’s later diversification. Chapter Two documents the existence of a type of network effects—free riding across neighbors—in the consumption of color television sets in rural China, which reduces the propensity of non-owners to purchase. I construct a model of the timing of the purchase of a durable good in the presence of free riding, and test its key implications using household survey data in rural China. Chapter Three tests for asymmetric information between a firm’s management and other investors about its patent output by examining insider trading patterns and stock price changes in R&D intensive firms. It demonstrates that management has considerable information about its patent output beyond what is known to investors. It also shows that the predictive power of insider trading patterns on patent output comes from purchases rather than sales. Chapter Four discusses two sequential channels through which knowledge stocks may influence a firm’s later diversification. One is that firms with more knowledge are more likely to enter a new industry. The other is that firms’ businesses have a better chance of surviving, conditional on being formed. By examining U.S. public patenting firms in manufacturing sectors for 1984-1996, I find that knowledge stocks predict the likelihood of new industry entry when controlling for firm size. However, this predictive power is weakened when diversification effects are included. On the other hand, a survival study of newly established segments shows that initial knowledge stocks have significant positive effects on segment survival, whereas diversification effects are insignificant.

A study of stock market linkages between the US and frontier countries

My dissertation investigates the financial linkages and transmission of economic shocks between the US and the smallest emerging markets (frontier markets). The first chapter sets up an empirical model that examines the impact of US market returns and conditional volatility on the returns and conditional volatilities of twenty-one frontier markets. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood; utilizes the GARCH model of errors, and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. We find limited, but statistically significant exposure of Frontier markets to shocks from the US. Our results suggest that it is not the lagged US market returns that have impact; rather it is the expected US market returns that influence frontier market returns The second chapter sets up an empirical time-varying parameter (TVP) model to explore the time-variation in the impact of mean US returns on mean Frontier market returns. The model utilizes the Kalman filter algorithm as well as the GARCH model of errors and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. The TVP model detects statistically significant time-variation in the impact of US returns and low, but statistically and quantitatively important impact of US market conditional volatility. The third chapter studies the risk-return relationship in twenty Frontier country stock markets by setting up an international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The systematic risk in this model comes from covariance of Frontier market stock index returns with world returns. Both the systematic risk and risk premium are time-varying in our model. We also incorporate own country variances as additional determinants of Frontier country returns. Our results suggest statistically significant impact of both world and own country risk in explaining Frontier country returns. Time-variation in the world risk premium is also found to be statistically significant for most Frontier market returns. However, own country risk is found to be quantitatively more important.

Modeling the role of investigator bias, interrogation techniques, and suspect decision -making on the likelihood of confession

The purpose of the current study was to attempt to model various cognitive and social processes that are believed to lead to false confessions. More specifically, this study manipulated the variables of experimenter expectancy, guilt-innocence of the suspect, and interrogation techniques using the Russano et al. (2005) paradigm. The primary measure of interest was the likelihood of the participant signing the confession statement. By manipulating experimenter expectancy, the current study sought to further explore the social interactions that may occur in the interrogation room. In addition, in past experiments, the interrogator has typically been restricted to the use of one or two interrogation techniques. In the present study, interrogators were permitted to select from 15 different interrogation techniques when attempting to solicit a confession from participants. ^ Consistent with Rusanno et al. (2005), guilty participants (94%) were more likely to confess to the act of cheating than innocent participants (31%). The variable of experimenter expectancy did not effect confessions rates, length of interrogation, or the type of interrogation techniques used. Path analysis revealed feelings of pressure and the weighing of consequences on the part of the participant were associated with the signing of the confession statement. The findings suggest the guilt/innocence of the participant, the participant's perceptions of the interrogation situation, and length of interrogation play a pivotal role in the signing of the confession statement. Further examination of these variables may provide researchers with a better understanding of the relationship between interrogations and confessions. ^

On the Existence and Uniqueness of the Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Normal and Lognormal Population Parameters with Grouped Data

Lognormal distribution has abundant applications in various fields. In literature, most inferences on the two parameters of the lognormal distribution are based on Type-I censored sample data. However, exact measurements are not always attainable especially when the observation is below or above the detection limits, and only the numbers of measurements falling into predetermined intervals can be recorded instead. This is the so-called grouped data. In this paper, we will show the existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators of the two parameters of the underlying lognormal distribution with Type-I censored data and grouped data. The proof was first established under the case of normal distribution and extended to the lognormal distribution through invariance property. The results are applied to estimate the median and mean of the lognormal population.

An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Effect of Performance Feedback on Perceived Knowledge and Likelihood to Pursue Continuing Education

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of performance feedback on Athletic Trainers’ (ATs) perceived knowledge (PK) and likelihood to pursue continuing education (CE). The investigation was grounded in the theories of “the definition of the situation” (Thomas & Thomas, 1928) and the “illusion of knowing,” (Glenberg, Wilkinson, & Epstein, 1982) suggesting that PK drives behavior. This investigation measured the degree to which knowledge gap predicted CE seeking behavior by providing performance feedback designed to change PK. A pre-test post-test control-group design was used to measure PK and likelihood to pursue CE before and after assessing actual knowledge. ATs (n=103) were randomly sampled and assigned to two groups, with and without performance feedback. Two independent samples t-tests were used to compare groups on the difference scores of the dependent variables. Likelihood to pursue CE was predicted by three variables using multiple linear regression: perceived knowledge, pre-test likelihood to pursue CE, and knowledge gap. There was a 68.4% significant difference (t101= 2.72, p=0.01, ES=0.45) between groups in the change scores for likelihood to pursue CE because of the performance feedback (Experimental group=13.7% increase; Control group= 4.3% increase). The strongest relationship among the dependent variables was between pre-test and post-test measures of likelihood to pursue CE (F2,102=56.80, p<0.01, r=0.73, R2=0.53). The pre- and post-test predictive relationship was enhanced when group was included in the model. In this model [YCEpost=0.76XCEpre-0.34 Xgroup+2.24+E], group accounted for a significant amount of unique variance in predicting CE while the pre-test likelihood to pursue CE variable was held constant (F3,102=40.28, p<0.01,: r=0.74, R2=0.55). Pre-test knowledge gap, regardless of group allocation, was a linear predictor of the likelihood to pursue CE (F1,102=10.90, p=.01, r=.31, R2=.10). In this investigation, performance feedback significantly increased participants’ likelihood to pursue CE. Pre-test knowledge gap was a significant predictor of likelihood to pursue CE, regardless if performance feedback was provided. ATs may have self-assessed and engaged in internal feedback as a result of their test-taking experience. These findings indicate that feedback, both internal and external, may be necessary to trigger CE seeking behavior.