Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Trends in Water Quality within the Broward County Portion of the Biscayne Aquifer

Continuous and reliable monitoring of contaminants in drinking water, which adversely affect human health, is the main goal of the Broward County Well Field Protection Program. In this study the individual monitoring station locations were used in a yearly and quarterly spatiotemporal Ordinary Kriging interpolation to create a raster network of contaminant detections. In the final analysis, the raster spatiotemporal nitrate concentration trends were overlaid with a pollution vulnerability index to determine if the concentrations are influenced by a set of independent variables. The pollution vulnerability factors are depth to water, recharge, aquifer media, soil, impact to vadose zone, and conductivity. The creation of the nitrate raster dataset had an average RMS Standardized error close to 1 at 0.98. The greatest frequency of detections and the highest concentrations are found in the months of April, May, June, July, August, and September. An average of 76.4% of the nitrate intersected with cells of the pollution vulnerability index over 100.

Hydrological dynamics between a coastal aquifer and the adjacent estuarine system, Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Geochemical and geophysical approaches have been used to investigate the freshwater and saltwater dynamics in the coastal Biscayne Aquifer and Biscayne Bay. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, and concentrations of Sr2+ and Ca2+ were combined in two geochemical mixing models to provide estimates of the various freshwater inputs (precipitation, canal water, and groundwater) to Biscayne Bay and the coastal canal system in South Florida. Shallow geophysical electromagnetic and direct current resistivity surveys were used to image the geometry and stratification of the saltwater mixing zone in the near coastal (less than 1km inland) Biscayne Aquifer. The combined stable isotope and trace metal models suggest a ratio of canal input-precipitation-groundwater of 38%–52%–10% in the wet season and 37%–58%–5% in the dry season with an error of 25%, where most (20%) of the error was attributed to the isotope regression model, while the remaining 5% error was attributed to the Sr2+/Ca2+ mixing model. These models suggest rainfall is the dominate source of freshwater to Biscayne Bay. For a bay-wide water budget that includes saltwater and freshwater mixing, fresh groundwater accounts for less than 2% of the total input. A similar Sr 2+/Ca2+ tracer model indicates precipitation is the dominate source in 9 out of 10 canals that discharge into Biscayne Bay. The two-component mixing model converged for 100% of the freshwater canal samples in this study with 63% of the water contributed to the canals coming from precipitation and 37% from groundwater inputs ±4%. There was a seasonal shift from 63% precipitation input in the dry season to 55% precipitation input in the wet season. The three end-member mixing model converged for only 60% of the saline canal samples possibly due to non-conservative behavior of Sr2+ and Ca2+ in saline groundwater discharging into the canal system. Electromagnetic and Direct Current resistivity surveys were successful at locating and estimating the geometry and depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface in the Biscayne Aquifer at two near coastal sites. A saltwater interface that deepened as the survey moved inland was detected with a maximum interpreted depth to the interface of 15 meters, approximately 0.33 km inland from the shoreline. ^

Water resources assessment and geographic information system (GIS)-based stormwater runoff estimates for artificial recharge of freshwater aquifers in New Providence, Bahamas

The Bahamas is a small island nation that is dealing with the problem of freshwater shortage. All of the country’s freshwater is contained in shallow lens aquifers that are recharged solely by rainfall. The country has been struggling to meet the water demands by employing a combination of over-pumping of aquifers, transport of water by barge between islands, and desalination of sea water. In recent decades, new development on New Providence, where the capital city of Nassau is located, has created a large area of impervious surfaces and thereby a substantial amount of runoff with the result that several of the aquifers are not being recharged. A geodatabase was assembled to assess and estimate the quantity of runoff from these impervious surfaces and potential recharge locations were identified using a combination of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing. This study showed that runoff from impervious surfaces in New Providence represents a large freshwater resource that could potentially be used to recharge the lens aquifers on New Providence.

Identification of a hydrodynamic threshold in karst rocks from the Biscayne Aquifer, south Florida, USA

A hydrodynamic threshold between Darcian and non-Darcian flow conditions was found to occur in cubes of Key Largo Limestone from Florida, USA (one cube measuring 0.2 m on each side, the other 0.3 m) at an effective porosity of 33% and a hydraulic conductivity of 10 m/day. Below these values, flow was laminar and could be described as Darcian. Above these values, hydraulic conductivity increased greatly and flow was non-laminar. Reynolds numbers (Re) for these experiments ranged from

Geochemical determination of the fate and transport of injected fresh wastewater to a deep saline aquifer

Deep well injection into non-potable saline aquifers of treated domestic wastewater has been used in Florida for decades as a safe and effective alternative to ocean outfall disposal. The objectives of this study were to determine the fate and transport of injected wastewater at two deep well injection sites in Miami Dade County, Florida, USA. Detection of ammonium in the Middle Confining units of the Floridan aquifer above the injection zone at both sites has been interpreted as evidence of upward migration of injected wastewater, posing a risk to underground sources of drinking water. Historical water quality data, including ammonia, chloride, temperature, and pH from existing monitoring wells at both sites from 1983 to 2008, major ions collected monthly from 2006 and 2008, and a synoptic sampling event for stable isotopes, tritium, and dissolved gases in 2008, were used to determine the source of ammonium in groundwater and possible migration pathways. Geochemical modeling was used to determine possible effects of injected wastewater on native water and aquifer matrix geochemistry. Injected wastewater was determined to be the source of elevated ammonium concentrations above ambient water levels, based on the results of major ion concentrations, tritium, dissolved noble gases and 15N isotopes analyses. Various possible fluid migration pathways were identified at the sites. Data for the south site suggest buoyancy-driven vertical pathways to overlying aquifers bypassing the confining units, with little mixing of injected wastewater with native water as it migrated upward. Once it is introduced into an aquifer, the injectate appeared to migrate advectively with the regional groundwater flow. Geochemical modeling indicated that CO 2-enriched injected wastewater allowed for carbonate dissolution along the vertical pathways, enhancing permeability along these flowpaths. At the north site, diffusive upward flow through the confining units or offsite vertical pathways were determined to be possible, however no evidence was detected for any on-site confining unit bypass pathway. No evidence was observed at either site of injected wastewater migration to the Upper Floridan aquifer, which is used as a municipal water supply and for aquifer storage and recovery.

The role of recharge and evapotranspiration as hydraulic drivers of ion concentrations in shallow groundwater on Everglades tree islands, Florida (USA)

Recently, evapotranspiration has been hypothesized to promote the secondary formation of calcium carbonate year-round on tree islands in the Everglades by influencing groundwater ions concentrations. However, the role of recharge and evapotranspiration as drivers of shallow groundwater ion accumulation has not been investigated. The goal of this study is to develop a hydrologic model that predicts the chloride concentrations of shallow tree island groundwater and to determine the influence of overlying biomass and underlying geologic material on these concentrations. Groundwater and surface water levels and chloride concentrations were monitored on eight constructed tree islands at the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA) from 2007 to 2010. The tree islands at LILA were constructed predominately of peat, or of peat and limestone, and were planted with saplings of native tree species in 2006 and 2007. The model predicted low shallow groundwater chloride concentrations when inputs of regional groundwater and evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates were elevated, while low evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates resulted in a substantial increase of the chloride concentrations of the shallow groundwater. Modeling results indicated that evapotranspiration typically exceeded recharge on the older tree islands and those with a limestone lithology, which resulted in greater inputs of regional groundwater. A sensitivity analysis indicated the shallow groundwater chloride concentrations were most sensitive to alterations in specific yield during the wet season and hydraulic conductivity in the dry season. In conclusion, the inputs of rainfall, underlying hydrologic properties of tree islands sediments and forest structure may explain the variation in ion concentration seen across Everglades tree islands.

Determination of vertical and horizontal pathways of injected fresh wastewater into a deep saline aquifer (Florida, USA) using natural chemical tracers

Two deep-well injection sites in south Florida, USA, inject an average of 430 million liters per day (MLD) of treated domestic fresh wastewater into a deep saline aquifer 900 m below land surface. Elevated levels of NH3 (highest concentration 939 µmol) in the overlying aquifer above ambient concentrations (concentration less than 30 µmol) were evidence of the upward migration of injected fluids. Three pathways were distinguished based on ammonium, chloride and bromide ratios, and temperature. At the South District Wastewater Treatment Plant, the tracer ratios showed that the injectate remained chemically distinct as it migrated upwards through rapid vertical pathways via density-driven buoyancy. The warmer injectate (mean 28°C) retained the temperature signal as it vertically migrated upwards; however, the temperature signal did not persist as the injectate moved horizontally into the overlying aquifers. Once introduced, the injectate moved slowly horizontally through the aquifer and mixed with ambient water. At the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant, data provide strong evidence of a one-time pulse of injectate into the overlying aquifers due to improper well construction. No evidence of rapid vertical pathways was observed at the North District Wastewater Treatment Plant.

Hydrogeophysical characterization of anisotropy in the Biscayne Aquifer using geophysical methods

The anisotropy of the Biscayne Aquifer which serves as the source of potable water for Miami-Dade County was investigated by applying geophysical methods. Electrical resistivity imaging, self potential and ground penetration radar techniques were employed in both regional and site specific studies. In the regional study, electrical anisotropy and resistivity variation with depth were investigated with azimuthal square array measurements at 13 sites. The observed coefficient of electrical anisotropy ranged from 1.01 to 1.36. The general direction of measured anisotropy is uniform for most sites and trends W-E or SE-NW irrespective of depth. Measured electrical properties were used to estimate anisotropic component of the secondary porosity and hydraulic anisotropy which ranged from 1 to 11% and 1.18 to 2.83 respectively. 1-D sounding analysis was used to models the variation of formation resistivity with depth. Resistivities decreased from NW (close to the margins of the everglades) to SE on the shores of Biscayne Bay. Porosity calculated from Archie's law, ranged from 18 to 61% with higher values found along the ridge. Higher anisotropy, porosities and hydraulic conductivities were on the Atlantic Coastal Ridge and lower values at low lying areas west of the ridge. The cause of higher anisotropy and porosity is attributed to higher dissolution rates of the oolitic facies of the Miami Formation composing the ridge. The direction of minimum resistivity from this study is similar to the predevelopment groundwater flow direction indicated in published modeling studies. Detailed investigations were carried out to evaluate higher anisotropy at West Perrine Park located on the ridge and Snapper Creek Municipal well field where the anisotropy trend changes with depth. The higher anisotropy is attributed to the presence of solution cavities oriented in the E-SE direction on the ridge. Similarly, the change in hydraulic anisotropy at the well field might be related to solution cavities, the surface canal and groundwater extraction wells.^

The Role of Recharge and Evapotranspiration as Hydraulic Drivers of Ion Concentrations in Shallow Groundwater on Everglades Tree Islands, Florida (USA)

Recently, evapotranspiration has been hypothesized to promote the secondary formation of calcium carbonate year-round on tree islands in the Everglades by influencing groundwater ions concentrations. However, the role of recharge and evapotranspiration as drivers of shallow groundwater ion accumulation has not been investigated. The goal of this study is to develop a hydrologic model that predicts the chloride concentrations of shallow tree island groundwater and to determine the influence of overlying biomass and underlying geologic material on these concentrations. Groundwater and surface water levels and chloride concentrations were monitored on eight constructed tree islands at the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA) from 2007 to 2010. The tree islands at LILA were constructed predominately of peat, or of peat and limestone, and were planted with saplings of native tree species in 2006 and 2007. The model predicted low shallow groundwater chloride concentrations when inputs of regional groundwater and evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates were elevated, while low evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates resulted in a substantial increase of the chloride concentrations of the shallow groundwater. Modeling results indicated that evapotranspiration typically exceeded recharge on the older tree islands and those with a limestone lithology, which resulted in greater inputs of regional groundwater. A sensitivity analysis indicated the shallow groundwater chloride concentrations were most sensitive to alterations in specific yield during the wet season and hydraulic conductivity in the dry season. In conclusion, the inputs of rainfall, underlying hydrologic properties of tree islands sediments and forest structure may explain the variation in ion concentration seen across Everglades tree islands.

Investigation of spatial patterns of ground-water exchange with lakes, using a three-dimensional numerical model

Hydrogeologic variables controlling groundwater exchange with inflow and flow-through lakes were simulated using a three-dimensional numerical model (MODFLOW) to investigate and quantify spatial patterns of lake bed seepage and hydraulic head distributions in the porous medium surrounding the lakes. Also, the total annual inflow and outflow were calculated as a percentage of lake volume for flow-through lake simulations. The general exponential decline of seepage rates with distance offshore was best demonstrated at lower anisotropy ratio (i.e., Kh/Kv = 1, 10), with increasing deviation from the exponential pattern as anisotropy was increased to 100 and 1000. 2-D vertical section models constructed for comparison with 3-D models showed that groundwater heads and seepages were higher in 3-D simulations. Addition of low conductivity lake sediments decreased seepage rates nearshore and increased seepage rates offshore in inflow lakes, and increased the area of groundwater inseepage on the beds of flow-through lakes. Introduction of heterogeneity into the medium decreased the water table and seepage ratesnearshore, and increased seepage rates offshore in inflow lakes. A laterally restricted aquifer located at the downgradient side of the flow-through lake increased the area of outseepage. Recharge rate, lake depth and lake bed slope had relatively little effect on the spatial patterns of seepage rates and groundwater exchange with lakes.

Numerical groundwater flow modeling in the Wakal River basin, India

Increasing dependence on groundwater in the Wakal River basin, India, jeopardizes water supply sustainability. A numerical groundwater model was developed to better understand the aquifer system and to evaluate its potential in terms of quantity and replenishment. Potential artificial recharge areas were delineated using landscape and hydrogeologic parameters, Geographic Information System (GIS), and remote sensing. Groundwater models are powerful tools for recharge estimation when transmissivity is known. Proper recharge must be applied to reproduce field-measured heads. The model showed that groundwater levels could decline significantly if there are two drought years in every four years that result in reduced recharge, and groundwater withdrawal is increased by 15%. The effect of such drought is currently uncertain however, because runoff from the basin is unknown. Remote sensing and GIS revealed areas with slopes less than 5%, forest cover, and Normalized Difference Vegetative Index greater than 0.5 that are suitable recharge sites.

Hydrogeophysical Characterization of Anisotropy in the Biscayne Aquifer Using Geophysical Methods

The anisotropy of the Biscayne Aquifer which serves as the source of potable water for Miami-Dade County was investigated by applying geophysical methods. Electrical resistivity imaging, self potential and ground penetration radar techniques were employed in both regional and site specific studies. In the regional study, electrical anisotropy and resistivity variation with depth were investigated with azimuthal square array measurements at 13 sites. The observed coefficient of electrical anisotropy ranged from 1.01 to 1.36. The general direction of measured anisotropy is uniform for most sites and trends W-E or SE-NW irrespective of depth. Measured electrical properties were used to estimate anisotropic component of the secondary porosity and hydraulic anisotropy which ranged from 1 to 11% and 1.18 to 2.83 respectively. 1-D sounding analysis was used to models the variation of formation resistivity with depth. Resistivities decreased from NW (close to the margins of the everglades) to SE on the shores of Biscayne Bay. Porosity calculated from Archie's law, ranged from 18 to 61% with higher values found along the ridge. Higher anisotropy, porosities and hydraulic conductivities were on the Atlantic Coastal Ridge and lower values at low lying areas west of the ridge. The cause of higher anisotropy and porosity is attributed to higher dissolution rates of the oolitic facies of the Miami Formation composing the ridge. The direction of minimum resistivity from this study is similar to the predevelopment groundwater flow direction indicated in published modeling studies. Detailed investigations were carried out to evaluate higher anisotropy at West Perrine Park located on the ridge and Snapper Creek Municipal well field where the anisotropy trend changes with depth. The higher anisotropy is attributed to the presence of solution cavities oriented in the E-SE direction on the ridge. Similarly, the change in hydraulic anisotropy at the well field might be related to solution cavities, the surface canal and groundwater extraction wells.

Flow and water budgets in the C-111 and L-31W canals near the Everglades National Park, Dade County, Florida

Acoustic velocity meter (AVM) sites, located both distant and adjacent to canal water control structures, were constructed and calibrated in L-31W borrow canal and Canal 111 (C-111) to measure canal water velocity. Data were used to compute monthly discharge volumes and overall water budgets for several canal reaches from August 1994 to May 1996. The water budgets indicated extensive aquifer inflows in L-31W associated, in part, with S-332 pump station return flows. Canal and groundwater piezometer data showed 5 distinct hydrologic scenarios (distinguished by the direction and magnitude of hydraulic gradients) in the important Frog Pond area on the eastern boundary of the Everglades National Park. Most of the water lost from C-111 was via surface water losses near the outlet of the system, close to Florida Bay. The distribution of flows during the study suggest an alteration of the present South Dade Conveyance System modification plan to improve water deliveries to Taylor Slough and the Eastern Panhandle of the Everglades National Park. ^

Natural organic matter and colloid-facilitated arsenic transport and transformation in porous soil media

Prediction of arsenic transport and transformation in soil environment requires understanding the transport mechanisms and proper estimation of arsenic partitioning tong all three phases in soil/aquifer systems: mobile colloids, mobile soil solution, and immobile soil solids. The primary purpose of this research is to study natural dissolved organic matter (DOM)/colloid-facilitated transport of arsenic and understand the role of soil derived carriers in the transport and transformation of both inorganic and organoarsenicals in soils. ^ DOM/colloid facilitated arsenic transport and transformation in porous soil media were investigated using a set of experimental approaches including batch experiment, equilibrium membrane dialysis experiment and column experiment. Soil batch experiment was applied to investigate arsenic adsorption on a variety of soils with different characteristics; Equilibrium membrane dialysis was employed to determine the 'free' and 'colloid-bound/complexed' arsenic in water extracts of chosen soils; Column experiments were also set up in the laboratory to simulate arsenic transport and transformation through golf course soils in the presence and absence of soil-derived dissolved substances. ^ The experimental results revealed that organic matter amendments effectively reduced soil arsenic adsorption. The majority of arsenic present in the soil extracts was associated with small substances of molecular weight (MW) between 500 and 3,500 Da, Only a small fraction of arsenic was associated with higher MW substances (MW > 3,500 Da), which was operationally defined as colloidal part in this study. The association of arsenic and DOM in the soil extracts strongly affected arsenic bioavailability, arsenic transport and transformation in soils. The results of column experiments revealed arsenic complicated behavior with various processes occurring in soils studied, including: soil arsenic' adsorption, facilitated arsenic transportation by dissolved substances presented in soil extracts and microorganisms involved arsenic species transformation. ^ Soil organic matter amendments effectively reduce soil arsenic adsorption capability either by scavenging 'soil arsenic adsorption sites or by interactions between arsenic species and dissolved organic chemicals in soil solution. Close attention must be paid for facilitated arsenic transport by dissolved substances presented in soil solution and microorganisms involved arsenic species transformation in arsenic-contaminated soils.^