Development of prediction models for freeway incident durations using data mining techniques

The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^

Algebraic theory of minimal nondeterministic finite automata with applications

Since the 1950s, the theory of deterministic and nondeterministic finite automata (DFAs and NFAs, respectively) has been a cornerstone of theoretical computer science. In this dissertation, our main object of study is minimal NFAs. In contrast with minimal DFAs, minimal NFAs are computationally challenging: first, there can be more than one minimal NFA recognizing a given language; second, the problem of converting an NFA to a minimal equivalent NFA is NP-hard, even for NFAs over a unary alphabet. Our study is based on the development of two main theories, inductive bases and partials, which in combination form the foundation for an incremental algorithm, ibas, to find minimal NFAs. An inductive basis is a collection of languages with the property that it can generate (through union) each of the left quotients of its elements. We prove a fundamental characterization theorem which says that a language can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element inductive basis. A partial is an incompletely-specified language. We say that an NFA recognizes a partial if its language extends the partial, meaning that the NFA’s behavior is unconstrained on unspecified strings; it follows that a minimal NFA for a partial is also minimal for its language. We therefore direct our attention to minimal NFAs recognizing a given partial. Combining inductive bases and partials, we generalize our characterization theorem, showing that a partial can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element partial inductive basis. We apply our theory to develop and implement ibas, an incremental algorithm that finds minimal partial inductive bases generating a given partial. In the case of unary languages, ibas can often find minimal NFAs of up to 10 states in about an hour of computing time; with brute-force search this would require many trillions of years.

Algebraic Theory of Minimal Nondeterministic Finite Automata with Applications

Since the 1950s, the theory of deterministic and nondeterministic finite automata (DFAs and NFAs, respectively) has been a cornerstone of theoretical computer science. In this dissertation, our main object of study is minimal NFAs. In contrast with minimal DFAs, minimal NFAs are computationally challenging: first, there can be more than one minimal NFA recognizing a given language; second, the problem of converting an NFA to a minimal equivalent NFA is NP-hard, even for NFAs over a unary alphabet. Our study is based on the development of two main theories, inductive bases and partials, which in combination form the foundation for an incremental algorithm, ibas, to find minimal NFAs. An inductive basis is a collection of languages with the property that it can generate (through union) each of the left quotients of its elements. We prove a fundamental characterization theorem which says that a language can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element inductive basis. A partial is an incompletely-specified language. We say that an NFA recognizes a partial if its language extends the partial, meaning that the NFA's behavior is unconstrained on unspecified strings; it follows that a minimal NFA for a partial is also minimal for its language. We therefore direct our attention to minimal NFAs recognizing a given partial. Combining inductive bases and partials, we generalize our characterization theorem, showing that a partial can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element partial inductive basis. We apply our theory to develop and implement ibas, an incremental algorithm that finds minimal partial inductive bases generating a given partial. In the case of unary languages, ibas can often find minimal NFAs of up to 10 states in about an hour of computing time; with brute-force search this would require many trillions of years.