Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Exile and Patronage- Making Art in Cities of Refuge

Chenjerai Hove, world-renowned Zimbabwean author, presents a lecture on the subject of his experiences as an exiled author in the United States. Event held at the Graham Center, Modesto Maidique Campus, Florida International University on October 28,2013.

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Identity, Ideology, and Cinema: Making Sense of Japan's Foreign and Security Policies in the 1950s and 2000s

Japan is an important ally of the United States–the world’s third biggest economy, and one of the regional great powers in Asia. Making sense of Japan’s foreign and security policies is crucial for the future of peace and stability in Northeast Asia, where the possible sources of conflict such as territorial disputes or the disputes over Japan’s war legacy issues are observed. This dissertation explored Japan’s foreign and security policies based on Japan’s identities and unconscious ideologies. It employed an analysis of selected Japanese films from the late 1940s to the late 1950s, as well as from the late 1990s to the mid-2000s. The analysis demonstrated that Japan’s foreign and security policies could be understood in terms of a broader social narrative that was visible in Japanese popular cultural products, including films and literatures. Narratives of Japanese families from the patriarch’s point of view, for example, had constantly shaped Japan’s foreign and security policies. As a result, the world was ordered hierarchically in the eyes of the Japan Self. In the 1950s, Japan tenaciously constructed close but asymmetrical security relations with the U.S. in which Japan willingly subjugated itself to the U.S. In the 2000s, Japan again constructed close relations with the U.S. by doing its best to support American responses to the 9/11 terrorist attacks by mobilizing Japan’s SDFs in the way Japan had never done in the past. The concepts of identity and unconscious ideology are helpful in understanding how Japan’s own understanding of self, of others, and of the world have shaped its own behaviors. These concepts also enable Japan to reevaluate its own behaviors reflexively, which departs from existing alternative approaches. This study provided a critical analytical explanation of the dynamics at work in Japan’s sense of identity, particularly with regard to its foreign and security policies.

Identity, ideology, and cinema: Making sense of Japan's foreign and security policies in the 1950s and 2000s

Japan is an important ally of the United States–the world’s third biggest economy, and one of the regional great powers in Asia. Making sense of Japan’s foreign and security policies is crucial for the future of peace and stability in Northeast Asia, where the possible sources of conflict such as territorial disputes or the disputes over Japan’s war legacy issues are observed.^ This dissertation explored Japan’s foreign and security policies based on Japan’s identities and unconscious ideologies. It employed an analysis of selected Japanese films from the late 1940s to the late 1950s, as well as from the late 1990s to the mid-2000s. The analysis demonstrated that Japan’s foreign and security policies could be understood in terms of a broader social narrative that was visible in Japanese popular cultural products, including films and literatures. Narratives of Japanese families from the patriarch’s point of view, for example, had constantly shaped Japan’s foreign and security policies. As a result, the world was ordered hierarchically in the eyes of the Japan Self. In the 1950s, Japan tenaciously constructed close but asymmetrical security relations with the U.S. in which Japan willingly subjugated itself to the U.S. In the 2000s, Japan again constructed close relations with the U.S. by doing its best to support American responses to the 9/11 terrorist attacks by mobilizing Japan’s SDFs in the way Japan had never done in the past.^ The concepts of identity and unconscious ideology are helpful in understanding how Japan’s own understanding of self, of others, and of the world have shaped its own behaviors. These concepts also enable Japan to reevaluate its own behaviors reflexively, which departs from existing alternative approaches. This study provided a critical analytical explanation of the dynamics at work in Japan’s sense of identity, particularly with regard to its foreign and security policies.^

Making Life Choices Program: A psychoeducational intervention for promoting critical cognitive and affective competencies in adolescents at-risk for problem behaviors

The long term goal of the work described is to contribute to the emerging literature of prevention science in general, and to school-based psychoeducational interventions in particular. The psychoeducational intervention reported in this study used a main effects prevention intervention model. The current study focused on promoting optimal cognitive and affective functioning. The goal of this intervention was to increase potential protective factors such as critical cognitive and communicative competencies (e.g., critical problem solving and decision making) and affective competencies (e.g., personal control and responsibility) in middle adolescents who have been identified by the school system as being at-risk for problem behaviors. The current psychoeducational intervention draws on an ongoing program of theory and research (Berman, Berman, Cass Lorente, Ferrer Wreder, Arrufat, & Kurtines 1996; Ferrer Wreder, 1996; Kurtines, Berman, Ittel, & Williamson, 1995) and extends it to include Freire's (1970) concept of transformative pedagogy in developing school-based psychoeducational programs that target troubled adolescents. The results of the quantitative and qualitative analyses indicated trends that were generally encouraging with respect to the effects of the intervention on increasing critical cognitive and affective competencies. ^

A fresh look at decision making in international investment choices: Firm international coherence and home-host country relatedness

Understanding how decisions for international investments are made and how this affects the overall pattern of investments and firm’s performance is of particular importance both in strategy and international business research. This dissertation introduced first home-host country relatedness (HHCR) as the degree to which countries are efficiently combined within the investment portfolios of firms. It theorized and demonstrated that HHCR will vary with the motivation for investments along at least two key dimensions: the nature of foreign investments and the connectedness of potential host countries to the rest of the world. Drawing on cognitive psychology and decision-making research, it developed a theory of strategic decision making proposing that strategic solutions are chosen close to a convenient anchor. Building on research on memory imprinting, it also proposed that managers tend to rely on older knowledge representation. In the context of international investment decisions, managers use their home countries as an anchor and are more likely to choose as a site for foreign investments host countries that are ‘close’ to the home country. These decisions are also likely to rely more strongly on closeness to time invariant country factors of historic and geographic nature rather than time-variant institutions. Empirical tests using comprehensive investments data by all public multinational companies (MNC) worldwide, or over 15,000 MNCs with over half a million subsidiaries, support the claims. Finally, the dissertation introduced the concept of International Coherence (IC) defined as the degree to which an MNE’s network comprises countries that are related. It was hypothesized that maintaining a high level of coherence is important for firm performance and will enhance it. Also, the presence of international coherence mitigates some of the negative effects of unrelated product diversification. Empirical tests using data on foreign investments of over 20,000 public firms, while also developing a home-host country relatedness index for up to 24,300 home-host pairs, provided support for the theory advanced.

Making and Evaluating Strategy: Learning from the Military

Use of military analogy is rampant and considered an acceptable part of business vernacular. However, analogies only illustrate, and bad analogies make bad strategy. There are important lessons to be learned from military strategy, though. This article identifies "the ten principles of strategy" that corporate strategists could utilize in testing their strategic theories, concepts, and plans.

Making the grade: The perceived impact of Florida's A+ Plan on the learning environment of one elementary school

The purpose of this study was to ascertain the perceptions of educators at one elementary school regarding the changes in the teaching and learning environment and their related effects following the implementation of Florida's A+ high-stakes accountability system. This study also assessed whether these changes were identified by participants as meaningful and enduring, in terms of the definition by Lieberman and Miller (1999). Twenty-one educators, including 17 teachers and four administrators, at Blue Ribbon Elementary school were interviewed. Data were inductively coded and categorized into four major themes: (a) teaching and learning environment consistency, (b) changes in the teaching and learning environment since the implementation of A+, (c) effects of the changes, and (d) significant and enduring change. Findings fell into three categories (a) identified changes since A+ implementation, (b) effects of changes, and (c) what participants believed was significant and long term change, which included those characteristics of the school that had been identified as consistent in the teaching and learning environment. Statements of the participants explained their perceptions about what instructional decisions where made in response to the A+ Plan including the modification of curriculum, the addition or omission of subject matter taught, and the positive or negative impact these decisions had on the teaching and learning environment. It was found that study participants felt all changes and their effects were a direct result of the A+ Plan and viewed many of the changes as being neither significant nor long term Analysis of the educators' perceptions of the changes they experienced revealed the overall feeling that the changes were not indicative of what was necessary to make a school successful. For the participants, the changes lacked the characteristics that they had described as vital in what constituted success. This led to the conclusion that, by Lieberman and Miller's definition, the majority of changes and effects that were implemented at the school as a result of the mandated A+ Plan, were not meaningful and enduring for effective school reform. ^

True and false confessions to an intentional act: A novel experimental paradigm

Due to the powerful nature of confession evidence, it is imperative that we investigate the factors that affect the likelihood of obtaining true and false confessions. Previous research has been conducted with a paradigm limited to the study of false confessions to an act of negligence, thereby limiting the generalizability of the findings. The first goal of the current study was to introduce a novel paradigm involving a more serious, intentional act that can be used in the study of both true and false confessions. The second goal was to explore the effects of two police interrogation tactics, minimization and an offer of leniency, on true and false confession rates. ^ Three hundred and thirty-four undergraduates at a large southeastern university were recruited to participate in a study on problem-solving and decision-making. During the course of the laboratory experiment, participants were induced to intentionally break or not break an experimental rule, an act that was characterized as “cheating.” All participants (i.e., both innocent and guilty) were later accused of the act and interrogated. For half of the participants, the interrogator used minimization tactics, which involved downplaying the seriousness of the offense, expressing sympathy, and providing face-saving excuses, in order to encourage the participant to confess. An offer of leniency was also manipulated in which half the participants were offered a “deal” that involved the option of confessing and accepting a known punishment or not confessing and facing the threat of harsher punishment. Results indicated that guilty persons were more likely to confess than innocent persons, and that the use of minimization and an explicit offer of leniency increased both the true and false confession rates. Furthermore, a cumulative effect of techniques was observed, such that the diagnosticity of the interrogation (the ratio of true confessions to false confessions) decreased as the number of techniques used increased. Taken together, the results suggest that caution should be used when implementing these techniques in the interrogation room. ^

Multidimensional classification and diagnosis of leukemia in flow cytometry

This research is to establish new optimization methods for pattern recognition and classification of different white blood cells in actual patient data to enhance the process of diagnosis. Beckman-Coulter Corporation supplied flow cytometry data of numerous patients that are used as training sets to exploit the different physiological characteristics of the different samples provided. The methods of Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used as promising pattern classification techniques to identify different white blood cell samples and provide information to medical doctors in the form of diagnostic references for the specific disease states, leukemia. The obtained results prove that when a neural network classifier is well configured and trained with cross-validation, it can perform better than support vector classifiers alone for this type of data. Furthermore, a new unsupervised learning algorithm---Density based Adaptive Window Clustering algorithm (DAWC) was designed to process large volumes of data for finding location of high data cluster in real-time. It reduces the computational load to ∼O(N) number of computations, and thus making the algorithm more attractive and faster than current hierarchical algorithms.

Human resource development professionals' perceptions about the Academy of Human Resource Development Standards on Ethics and Integrity

Professional standards of ethics proclaim the core values of a profession, describe expected professional duties and responsibilities, and provide a framework for ethical practice and ethical decision-making. The purpose of this mixed, quantitative and qualitative, survey study was to examine HRD professionals' perceptions about the AHRD Standards on Ethics and Integrity, how HRD professionals used the Standards for research and decision-making, and the extent to which the Standards provided guidance for ethical decision-making. Through an on-line survey instrument, 182 members of AHRD were surveyed. The open-ended questions were analyzed using thematic analysis to expand on, inform, and support the quantitative findings. The close-ended questions were analyzed with frequency distributions, descriptive statistics, cross tabulations, and Spearman rank correlations. The results showed a significant relationship between (a) years of AHRD membership and level of familiarity with the Standards, (b) years of AHRD membership and use of the Standards for research, and (c) level of familiarity with the Standards and use of the Standards for research. There were no significant differences among scholars, scholar practitioners, practitioners, and students regarding their perceptions about the Standards. The results showed that the Standards were not well known or widely used. Nevertheless, the results indicated overall positive perceptions about the Standards. Seventy percent agreed that the Standards provided an appropriate set of ethical principles and reflected respondents' own standards of conduct. Seventy-eight percent believed that the Standards were important for defining HRD as a profession and 54% believed they were important for developing a sense of belonging to the HRD profession. Fifty-one percent believed the Standards should be enforceable and 61% agreed members should sign the membership application form showing willingness to adhere to the Standards. Seventy-seven percent based work-related ethical decisions on personal beliefs of right and wrong and 56% on established professional values and rules of right and wrong. The findings imply that if the professional standards of ethics are to influence the profession, they should be widely publicized and discussed among members, they should have some binding power, and their use should be encouraged.

Making Non-Career Jobs Attractive to Younger Workers

As most hospitality industry managers in the U.S. are already aware, there is a growing and persistent shortage of labor available for service-sector, non-career jobs, the very jobs so vital to the industry. In most cases, recruitment efforts for these jobs are targeted toward younger workers, those under age 25. The authors explore issues regarding the attractiveness of non-career jobs in the eyes of young persons and suggest that, in addition to factors related to the job itself (pay, hours, type of work), the type of procedures used by employers to make selection decisions are equally influential. Recommendations are made concerning how hospitality employers with non-career positions to fill can maximize the chances of successfully staffing their organizations.

Making Life More Satisfying for Hospitality Managers

Because of the considerable amount of time that hospitality managers spend at work, the relationship between life satisfaction and job satisfaction is of particular interest. Dissonance may result when the role at work conflicts with the role at home of with the family. Food service managers indicate that the top inter-role conflicts area is that work time takes up time that they would like to spend with family and others; that they are too tired to do some of the things they would like to do after work; and that the job makes it difficult to be the kind of friend, spouse, or parent that they would like to be.

Making Alan Greenspan Your Hotel Investment Partner

The author presents a capitalization model applied in hotel valuation which is then used to illustrate how an increase in interest rates result in a lower valuation for hotels. It is demonstrated that changes in hotel valuations of up to 20 percent can be directly attributed to changes in interest rates.