10 resultados para Welfare costs of business cycles

em Digital Commons at Florida International University


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In compliance with the economic internationalization movement and the development of Asia-Pacific Regional Operation Center (APROC) in Taiwan, international business has become more and more important. To sustain favorable trade balances every year and the promotion of APROC in Taiwan, more and more talent with knowledge and skills of Business English are needed. As a consequence, it is necessary to make Business English curriculum appropriate to meet the emerging needs.^ Two groups, experimental and control, received the revised or traditional Business English course to answer the question, "Does the Business English curriculum at Tainan Woman's College of Arts & Technology (TWCAT) meet the needs of students?" Ninety-five subjects were randomly selected from the commercial departments at TWCAT and then randomly assigned to the two groups. In addition, the Business English scores of the subjects' previous semester were collected and analyzed to justify the random selection and assignment. The finding was that their initial equivalence was proved.^ A questionnaire for students and another one for the business community were administered to facilitate data collection and analysis. The results of the questionnaires were used to modify the curriculum content of Business English.^ A final-term examination was given to the subjects at the end of the pilot study of Business English in early May of 1998. The resulting scores of the examination were used to determine if there was a significant difference in learning achievement between the students of the two groups.^ Using Independent Samples Test, significant results indicated that the experimental group had higher level of learning Business English than the control group. The finding supports the hypothesis of this study.^ Recommendations based on these results are that the revised curriculum be adapted and used by TWCAT because it better meets student needs. ^

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Coordination of business processes is the management of dependencies where dependencies constrain how the tasks are performed. It has been traditionally done in an intuitive fashion, without paying much attention to the coordination load. Coordination load is being defined as the ratio between the time spent on coordination activities and the total task time. Previous efforts to understand and analyze coordination have resulted in mostly qualitative approaches to categorize and recommend coordination strategies. This research seeks to answer two questions: (1) How can we analyze process coordination problems to improve overall performance? (2) What guidance can we provide to reduce the coordination load of the process and consequently improve the organization's performance? Thus, this effort developed a quantitative measure for coordination load of business processes and a methodology to apply such measure. ^ This effort used a management simulation game to have a controlled laboratory environment enabling the manipulation of the task factors variability, analyzability, and interdependence to measure their impact on coordination load. The hypothesis was that the more variable, non-analyzable, and interdependent a process, the higher the coordination load, and that a higher coordination load would have a negative impact on performance. Coordination load was measured via the surrogate coordination time, and performance via profit. ^ A 22 x 31 full factorial design, with two replicates, was run to observe the impact on the variables coordination time and profit. Properly validated spreadsheets and questionnaires were used as data collection instruments for each scenario. The experimental results indicate that lower task analyzability (ρ=0.036) and higher task interdependence (ρ=0.000) lead to higher coordination load, and higher levels of task variability (ρ=0.049) lead to lower performance. However, contrary to the hypotheses postulated by this work, coordination load did not prove to be strong predictor of performance (correlation of -0.086). ^ These findings from the laboratory experiment and other lessons learned were incorporated to develop a quantitative measure, a tool (survey) to use to gather data for the variables in the measures, and a methodology to quantify coordination load of production business processes. The practicality of the methodology is demonstrated with an example.^

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This dissertation explored the capacity of business group diversification to generate value to their affiliates in an institutional environment characterized by the adoption of structural pro-market reforms. In particular, the three empirical essays explored the impact of business group diversification on the internationalization process of their affiliates. ^ The first essay examined the direct effect of business group diversification on firm performance and its moderating effect on the multinationality-performance relationship. It further explored whether such moderating effect varies depending upon whether the focal affiliate is a manufacturing or service firm. The findings suggested that the benefits of business group diversification on firm performance have a threshold, that those benefits are significant at earlier stages of internationalization and that these benefits are stronger for service firms. ^ The second essay studied the capacity of business group diversification to ameliorate the negative effects of the added complexity faced by its affiliates when they internationalized. The essay explored this capacity in different dimensions of international complexity. The results indicated that business group diversification effectively ameliorated the effects of the added international complexity. This positive effect is stronger in the institutional voids rather than the societal complexity dimension. In the former dimension, diversified business groups can use both their non-market resources and previous experience to ameliorate the effects of complexity on firm performance. ^ The last essay explored whether the benefits of business group diversification on the scope-performance relationship varies depending on the level of development of the network of subsidiaries and the region of operation of the focal firm. The results suggested that the benefits of business group diversification are location bound within the region but that they are not related to the level of development of the targeted countries. ^ The three essays use longitudinal analyses on a sample of Latin American firms to test the hypotheses. While the first essay used multilevel models and fix effects models, the last two essays used exclusively fix effects models to assess the impact of business group diversification. In conclusion, this dissertation aimed to explain the capacity of business group diversification to generate value under conditions of institutional change.^

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This dissertation focused on the longitudinal analysis of business start-ups using three waves of data from the Kauffman Firm Survey. ^ The first essay used the data from years 2004-2008, and examined the simultaneous relationship between a firm's capital structure, human resource policies, and its impact on the level of innovation. The firm leverage was calculated as, debt divided by total financial resources. Index of employee well-being was determined by a set of nine dichotomous questions asked in the survey. A negative binomial fixed effects model was used to analyze the effect of employee well-being and leverage on the count data of patents and copyrights, which were used as a proxy for innovation. The paper demonstrated that employee well-being positively affects the firm's innovation, while a higher leverage ratio had a negative impact on the innovation. No significant relation was found between leverage and employee well-being.^ The second essay used the data from years 2004-2009, and inquired whether a higher entrepreneurial speed of learning is desirable, and whether there is a linkage between the speed of learning and growth rate of the firm. The change in the speed of learning was measured using a pooled OLS estimator in repeated cross-sections. There was evidence of a declining speed of learning over time, and it was concluded that a higher speed of learning is not necessarily a good thing, because speed of learning is contingent on the entrepreneur's initial knowledge, and the precision of the signals he receives from the market. Also, there was no reason to expect speed of learning to be related to the growth of the firm in one direction over another.^ The third essay used the data from years 2004-2010, and determined the timing of diversification activities by the business start-ups. It captured when a start-up diversified for the first time, and explored the association between an early diversification strategy adopted by a firm, and its survival rate. A semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the survival pattern. The results demonstrated that firms diversifying at an early stage in their lives show a higher survival rate; however, this effect fades over time.^

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In his study - File Control: The Heart Of Business Computer Management - William G. O'Brien, Assistant Professor, The School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, initially informs you: “Even though computers are an everyday part of the hospitality industry, many managers lack the knowledge and experience to control and protect the files in these systems. The author offers guidelines which can minimize or prevent damage to the business as a whole.” Our author initially opens this study with some anecdotal instances illustrating the failure of hospitality managers to exercise due caution with regard to computer supported information systems inside their restaurants and hotels. “Of the three components that make up any business computer system (data files, programs, and hard-ware), it is files that are most important, perhaps irreplaceable, to the business,” O’Brien informs you. O’Brien breaks down the noun, files, into two distinct categories. They are, the files of extrinsic value, and its counterpart the files of intrinsic value. An example of extrinsic value files would be a restaurant’s wine inventory. “As sales are made and new shipments are received, the computer updates the file,” says O’Brien. “This information might come directly from a point-of-sale terminal or might be entered manually by an employee,” he further explains. On the intrinsic side of the equation, O’Brien wants you to know that the information itself is the valuable part of this type of file. Its value is over and above the file’s informational purpose as a pragmatic business tool, as it is in inventory control. “The information is money in the legal sense For instance, figures moved about in banking system computers do not represent dollars; they are dollars,” O’Brien explains. “If the record of a dollar amount is erased from all computer files, then that money ceases to exist,” he warns. This type of information can also be bought and sold, such as it is in customer lists to advertisers. Files must be protected O’Brien stresses. “File security requires a systematic approach,” he discloses. O’Brien goes on to explain important elements to consider when evaluating file information. File back-up is also an important factor to think about, along with file storage/safety concerns. “Sooner or later, every property will have its fire, flood, careless mistake, or disgruntled employee,” O’Brien closes. “…good file control can minimize or prevent damage to the business as a whole.”

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This dissertation focused on the longitudinal analysis of business start-ups using three waves of data from the Kauffman Firm Survey. The first essay used the data from years 2004-2008, and examined the simultaneous relationship between a firm’s capital structure, human resource policies, and its impact on the level of innovation. The firm leverage was calculated as, debt divided by total financial resources. Index of employee well-being was determined by a set of nine dichotomous questions asked in the survey. A negative binomial fixed effects model was used to analyze the effect of employee well-being and leverage on the count data of patents and copyrights, which were used as a proxy for innovation. The paper demonstrated that employee well-being positively affects the firm's innovation, while a higher leverage ratio had a negative impact on the innovation. No significant relation was found between leverage and employee well-being. The second essay used the data from years 2004-2009, and inquired whether a higher entrepreneurial speed of learning is desirable, and whether there is a linkage between the speed of learning and growth rate of the firm. The change in the speed of learning was measured using a pooled OLS estimator in repeated cross-sections. There was evidence of a declining speed of learning over time, and it was concluded that a higher speed of learning is not necessarily a good thing, because speed of learning is contingent on the entrepreneur's initial knowledge, and the precision of the signals he receives from the market. Also, there was no reason to expect speed of learning to be related to the growth of the firm in one direction over another. The third essay used the data from years 2004-2010, and determined the timing of diversification activities by the business start-ups. It captured when a start-up diversified for the first time, and explored the association between an early diversification strategy adopted by a firm, and its survival rate. A semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the survival pattern. The results demonstrated that firms diversifying at an early stage in their lives show a higher survival rate; however, this effect fades over time.

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Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

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The current study applies a two-state switching regression model to examine the behavior of a hypothetical portfolio of ten socially responsible (SRI) equity mutual funds during the expansion and contraction phases of US business cycles between April 1991 and June 2009, based on the Carhart four-factor model, using monthly data. The model identified a business cycle effect on the performance of SRI equity mutual funds. Fund returns were less volatile during expansion/peaks than during contraction/troughs, as indicated by the standard deviation of returns. During contraction/troughs, fund excess returns were explained by the differential in returns between small and large companies, the difference between the returns on stocks trading at high and low Book-to-Market Value, the market excess return over the risk-free rate, and fund objective. During contraction/troughs, smaller companies offered higher returns than larger companies (ci = 0.26, p = 0.01), undervalued stocks out-performed high growth stocks (h i = 0.39, p <0.0001), and funds with growth objectives out-performed funds with other objectives (oi = 0.01, p = 0.02). The hypothetical SRI portfolio was less risky than the market (bi = 0.74, p <0.0001). During expansion/peaks, fund excess returns were explained by the market excess return over the risk-free rate, and fund objective. Funds with other objectives, such as balanced funds and income funds out-performed funds with growth objectives (oi = −0.01, p = 0.03). The hypothetical SRI portfolio exhibited similar risk as the market (bi = 0.93, p <0.0001). The SRI investor adds a third criterion to the risk and return trade-off of traditional portfolio theory. This constraint is social performance. The research suggests that managers of SRI equity mutual funds may diminish value by using social and ethical criteria to select stocks, but add value by superior stock selection. The result is that the performance of SRI mutual funds is very similar to that of the market. There was no difference in the value added among secular SRI, religious SRI, and vice screens.

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Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.