Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

The knowledge and use of critical thinking teaching strategies of faculty in associate degree nursing education programs

The purpose of this study was to determine the knowledge and use of critical thinking teaching strategies by full-time and part-time faculty in Associate Degree Nursing (ADN) programs. ^ Sanders CTI (1992) instrument was adapted for this study and pilot-tested prior to the general administration to ADN faculty in Southeast Florida. This modified instrument, now termed the Burroughs Teaching Strategy Inventory (BTSI), returned reliability estimates (Cronbach alphas of .71, .74, and .82 for the three constructs) comparable to the original instrument. The BTSI was administered to 113 full-time and part-time nursing faculty in three community college nursing programs. The response rate was 92% for full-time faculty (n = 58) and 61% for part-time faculty (n = 55). ^ The majority of participants supported a combined definition of critical thinking in nursing which represented a composite of thinking skills that included reflective thinking, assessing alternative viewpoints, and the use of problem-solving. Full-time and part-time faculty used different teaching strategies. Full-time faculty most often used multiple-choice exams and lecture while part-time faculty most frequently used discussion within their classes. One possible explanation for specific strategy choices and differences might be that full-time faculty taught predominately in theory classes where certain strategies would be more appropriate and part-time faculty taught predominately clinical classes. Both faculty types selected written nursing care plans as the second most effective critical thinking strategy. ^ Faculty identified several strategies as being effective in teaching critical thinking. These strategies included discussion, case studies, higher order questioning, and concept analysis. These however, were not always the strategies that were used in either the classroom or clinical setting. ^ Based on this study, the author recommends that if the profession continues to stress critical thinking as a vital component of practice, nursing faculty should receive education in appropriate critical teaching strategies. Both in-service seminars and workshops could be used to further the knowledge and use of critical thinking strategies by faculty. Qualitative research should be done to determine why nursing faculty use self-selected teaching strategies. ^

The use of computing technology in highway construction contractor companies as a Total Jobsite Management Tool (TJMT)

The integration of automation (specifically Global Positioning Systems (GPS)) and Information and Communications Technology (ICT) through the creation of a Total Jobsite Management Tool (TJMT) in construction contractor companies can revolutionize the way contractors do business. The key to this integration is the collection and processing of real-time GPS data that is produced on the jobsite for use in project management applications. This research study established the need for an effective planning and implementation framework to assist construction contractor companies in navigating the terrain of GPS and ICT use. An Implementation Framework was developed using the Action Research approach. The framework consists of three components, as follows: (i) ICT Infrastructure Model, (ii) Organizational Restructuring Model, and (iii) Cost/Benefit Analysis. The conceptual ICT infrastructure model was developed for the purpose of showing decision makers within highway construction companies how to collect, process, and use GPS data for project management applications. The organizational restructuring model was developed to assist companies in the analysis and redesign of business processes, data flows, core job responsibilities, and their organizational structure in order to obtain the maximum benefit at the least cost in implementing GPS as a TJMT. A cost-benefit analysis which identifies and quantifies the cost and benefits (both direct and indirect) was performed in the study to clearly demonstrate the advantages of using GPS as a TJMT. Finally, the study revealed that in order to successfully implement a program to utilize GPS data as a TJMT, it is important for construction companies to understand the various implementation and transitioning issues that arise when implementing this new technology and business strategy. In the study, Factors for Success were identified and ranked to allow a construction company to understand the factors that may contribute to or detract from the prospect for success during implementation. The Implementation Framework developed as a result of this study will serve to guide highway construction companies in the successful integration of GPS and ICT technologies for use as a TJMT.

Demographic effects of thatch harvest and implications for sustainable use of irapai palm (Lepidocaryum tenue, Mart.), by riverine communities in the Peruvian Amazon

Lepidocaryum tenue Mart. (Arecaceae) is a small, understory palm of terra firme forests of the western and central Amazon basin. Known as irapai, it is used for roof thatch by Amazonian peoples who collect its leaves from the wild and generate income from its fronds and articles fabricated from them. Increasing demand has caused local concern that populations are declining. Cultivation attempts have been unsuccessful. The purpose of this study was to investigate market conditions and quantify population dynamics and demographic responses of harvested and unharvested irapai growing near Iquitos, Peru. ^ Ethnobotanical research included participant surveys to determine movement of thatch tiles, called crisnejas, through Moronacocha Port. I also conducted a seed germination trial, and for four years studied five populations growing in communities with similar topography and soils but different land tenure and management strategies. Stage, survival, leaf production, and reproductive transitions were used to calculate ramet demographic rates and develop population projection matrices. ^ Weavers made an average of 20–30 crisnejas per day (90–130 leaves each), and earned US$0.09 to 0.70 each (US$1.80 to 21.00 per day). Average crisnejas per month sold per vendor was 2,955 with a profit range of US$0.05 to 0.32 per crisneja. Wholesalers worked with capital outlay from US$100 to 400, and an estimated ten to twenty vendors could be found at a given time. Consumers paid between US$0.23 to 1.20 per crisneja. Although differences in demographic rates by location existed, most were not significant enough to attribute to management. ^ After 60 months, mean seed germination rate was 19.5% in all media (37.9% in peat). Seedling survival was less than two percent after twelve months. Annual palm mortality was three percent, and occurred disproportionately in small (<50 cm) palms. Small palms grew more in height. Unharvested palms grew less than harvested palms. Large palms (≥50 cm) produced more leaves, were more likely to reproduce, and collectors harvested them more frequently. Reproductive potentials (sexual and asexual) were low. Population growth rates were greater than or not significantly different from 1.0, indicating populations maintained or increased in size. Current levels of irapai harvest appear sustainable. DNA analysis of stems and recruits is recommended to understand population composition and stage-specific asexual fecundity. ^

The use of a computer graphic organizer for persuasive composition writing by Hispanic students with specific learning disabilities

Many culturally and linguistically diverse (CLD) students with specific learning disabilities (SLD) struggle with the writing process. Particularly, they have difficulties developing and expanding ideas, organizing and elaborating sentences, and revising and editing their compositions (Graham, Harris, & Larsen, 2001; Myles, 2002). Computer graphic organizers offer a possible solution to assist them in their writing. This study investigated the effects of a computer graphic organizer on the persuasive writing compositions of Hispanic middle school students with SLD. A multiple baseline design across subjects was used to examine its effects on six dependent variables: number of arguments and supporting details, number and percentage of transferred arguments and supporting details, planning time, writing fluency, syntactical maturity (measured by T-units, the shortest grammatical sentence without fragments), and overall organization. Data were collected and analyzed throughout baseline and intervention. Participants were taught persuasive writing and the writing process prior to baseline. During baseline, participants were given a prompt and asked to use paper and pencil to plan their compositions. A computer was used for typing and editing. Intervention required participants to use a computer graphic organizer for planning and then a computer for typing and editing. The planning sheets and written composition were printed and analyzed daily along with the time each participant spent on planning. The use of computer graphic organizers had a positive effect on the planning and persuasive writing compositions. Increases were noted in the number of supporting details planned, percentage of supporting details transferred, planning time, writing fluency, syntactical maturity in number of T-units, and overall organization of the composition. Minimal to negligible increases were noted in the mean number of arguments planned and written. Varying effects were noted in the percent of transferred arguments and there was a decrease in the T-unit mean length. This study extends the limited literature on the effects of computer graphic organizers as a prewriting strategy for Hispanic students with SLD. In order to fully gauge the potential of this intervention, future research should investigate the use of different features of computer graphic organizer programs, its effects with other writing genres, and different populations.

Use of structural equation modeling to examine the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat screening mammography among United States women

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in United States women, estimated to be diagnosed in 1 out of 8 women in their lifetime. Screening mammography detects breast cancer in its pre-clinical stages when treatment strategies have the greatest chance of success, and is currently the only population-wide prevention method proven to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with breast cancer. Research has shown that the majority of women are not screened annually, with estimates ranging front 6% - 30% of eligible women receiving all available annual mammograms over a 5-year or greater time frame. Health behavior theorists believe that perception of risk/susceptibility to a disease influences preventive health behavior, in this case, screening mammography The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat screening mammography using a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. A series of SEM multivariate regressions were conducted using self-reported, nationally representative data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey. Interaction contrasts were tested to measure the potential moderating effects of variables which have been shown to be predictive of mammography use (physician recommendation, economic barriers, structural barriers, race/ethnicity) on the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat mammography, while controlling for the covariates of age, income, region, nativity, and educational level. Of the variables tested for moderation, results of the SEM analyses identify physician recommendation as the only moderator of the relationship between risk perception and repeat mammography, thus the potentially most effective point of intervention to increase mammography screening, and decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with breast cancer. These findings expand the role of the physician from recommendation to one of attenuating the effect of risk perception and increasing repeat screening. The long range application of the research is the use of the SEM methodology to identify specific points of intervention most likely to increase preventive behavior in population-wide research, allowing for the most effective use of intervention funds.^

The use of computer graphic organizers for narrative writing by elementary school students with Specific Learning Disabilities

Writing is an academic skill critical to students in today's schools as it serves as a predominant means for demonstrating knowledge during school years (Graham, 2008). However, for many students with Specific Learning Disabilities (SLD), learning to write is a challenging, complex process (Lane, Graham, Harris, & Weisenbach, 2006). Students SLD have substantial writing challenges related to the nature of their disability (Mayes & Calhoun, 2005). ^ This study investigated the effects of computer graphic organizer software on the narrative writing compositions of four, fourth- and fifth-grade, elementary-level boys with SLD. A multiple baseline design across subjects was used to explore the effects of the computer graphic organizer software on four dependent variables: total number of words, total planning time, number of common story elements, and overall organization. ^ Prior to baseline, participants were taught the fundamentals of narrative writing. Throughout baseline and intervention, participants were read a narrative writing prompt and were allowed up to 10 minutes to plan their writing, followed by 15 minutes for writing, and 5 minutes of editing. During baseline, all planning was done using paper and pencil. During intervention, planning was done on the computer using a graphic organizer developed from the software program Kidspiration 3.0 (2011). All compositions were written and editing was done using paper and pencil during baseline and intervention. ^ The results of this study indicated that to varying degrees computer graphic organizers had a positive effect on the narrative writing abilities of elementary aged students with SLD. Participants wrote more words (from 54.74 to 96.60 more), planned for longer periods of time (from 4.50 to 9.50 more minutes), and included more story elements in their compositions (from 2.00 to 5.10 more out of a possible 6). There were nominal to no improvements in overall organization across the 4 participants. ^ The results suggest that teachers of students with SLD should considering use computer graphic organizers in their narrative writing instruction, perhaps in conjunction with remedial writing strategies. Future investigations can include other types of writing genres, other stages of writing, participants with varied demographics and their use combined with remedial writing instruction. ^

The possible selves method in evaluating youth development interventions: The use of Integrated Qualitative /Quantitative Data Analytic Strategies (IQ -DAS)

This study investigated the feasibility of using qualitative methods to provide empirical documentation of the long-term qualitative change in the life course trajectories of “at risk” youth in a school based positive youth development program (the Changing Lives Program—CLP). This work draws from life course theory for a developmental framework and from recent advances in the use of qualitative methods in general and a grounded theory approach in particular. Grounded theory provided a methodological framework for conceptualizing the use of qualitative methods for assessing qualitative life change. The study investigated the feasibility of using the Possible Selves Questionnaire-Qualitative Extension (PSQ-QE) for evaluating the impact of the program on qualitative change in participants' life trajectory relative to a non-intervention control group. Integrated Qualitative/Quantitative Data Analytic Strategies (IQ-DAS) that we have been developing a part of our program of research provided the data analytic framework for the study. ^ Change was evaluated in 85 at risk high school students in CLP high school counseling groups over three assessment periods (pre, post, and follow-up), and a non-intervention control group of 23 students over two assessment periods (pre and post). Intervention gains and maintenance and the extent to which these patterns of change were moderated by gender and ethnicity were evaluated using a mixed design Repeated Measures Multivariate Analysis of Variance (RMANOVA) in which Time (pre, post) was the within (repeated) factor and Condition, Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors. The trends for the direction of qualitative change were positive from pre to post and maintained at the year-end follow-up. More important, the 3-way interaction for Time x Gender x Ethnicity was significant, Roy's Θ =. 205, F(2, 37) = 3.80, p <.032, indicating that the overall pattern of positive change was significantly moderated by gender and ethnicity. Thus, the findings also provided preliminary evidence for a positive impact of the youth development program on long-term change in life course trajectory, and were suggestive with respect to the issue of amenability to treatment, i.e., the identification of subgroups of individuals in a target population who are likely to be the most amenable or responsive to a treatment. ^

The practice and use of picuristes (lay injectionists) among Haitian immigrants in Miami -Dade County, Florida

This exploratory study examined use of picuristes among Haitian immigrants in Miami-Dade County, Florida. It describes how this health-seeking behavior is socially constructed among Haitian immigrants in terms of benefits. (b) risks, (c) sex, (d) gender, (e) acculturation proxies, and (f) transnational influences. It is conducted within the frameworks of Symbolic Interactionism, the Health Belief Model and the Explanatory Model of Illness. ^ Purposive sampling and a mixed-method design were used to obtain semistructured interviews of 10 picuristes and 25 users. The same methods were employed to select survey respondents so as to obtain a descriptive estimate of picuriste use and covariates of picuriste use within the sample. ATLAS.ti 5.0 and SPSS 14.0 were used to analyze the data. ^ The findings indicate an interconnection of elements from Vodou, traditional Haitian health beliefs and picuriste practice and use. ^ Rekonnèt, a relationship based on a history of trust with individuals related by blood or who share close personal and social ties was identified as a sufficient and necessary reason for picuriste practice and use. ^ Benefits reported are that the picuriste injections directly impact the blood, and that they represent affordable and convenient access to health care. Risks include rashes, abscesses and fevers. The reuse of injection equipment, routine injection of antibiotics and unknown substances and the improper discard of syringes and needles were reported, implying unrecognized risks of preventable infectious disease. No participant described a process that adheres to established international standards for safe injections. ^ There is no clear evidence that biological sex, gender, length of time in U.S. or language of interview influence picuriste practice or use. Transnational ties facilitate transport of substances from Haiti and the practice and use of picuristes locally. ^ Recommendation by a relative or trusted friend and believing that the benefits of picures outweigh risks were covariates of picuriste use. ^ This study highlights values and priorities of Haitian immigrants seeking healthcare, and cultural forces that shape their decisions about wellness and treatment. Future studies should test the application of Symbolic Interactionism to picuriste use in larger epidemiological studies that examine picuriste use in relation to health status.^

Vocabulary learning through use of the picture-word inductive model for young English learners in China: A mixed methods examination using Cognitive Load Theory

English has been taught as a core and compulsory subject in China for decades. Recently, the demand for English in China has increased dramatically. China now has the world's largest English-learning population. The traditional English-teaching method cannot continue to be the only approach because it merely focuses on reading, grammar and translation, which cannot meet English learners and users' needs (i.e., communicative competence and skills in speaking and writing). ^ This study was conducted to investigate if the Picture-Word Inductive Model (PWIM), a new pedagogical method using pictures and inductive thinking, would benefit English learners in China in terms of potential higher output in speaking and writing. With the gauge of Cognitive Load Theory (CLT), specifically, its redundancy effect, I investigated whether processing words and a picture concurrently would present a cognitive overload for English learners in China. ^ I conducted a mixed methods research study. A quasi-experiment (pretest, intervention for seven weeks, and posttest) was conducted using 234 students in four groups in Lianyungang, China (58 fourth graders and 57 seventh graders as an experimental group with PWIM and 59 fourth graders and 60 seventh graders as a control group with the traditional method). No significant difference in the effects of PWIM was found on vocabulary acquisition based on grade levels. Observations, questionnaires with open-ended questions, and interviews were deployed to answer the three remaining research questions. A few students felt cognitively overloaded when they encountered too many writing samples, too many new words at one time, repeated words, mismatches between words and pictures, and so on. Many students listed and exemplified numerous strengths of PWIM, but a few mentioned weaknesses of PWIM. The students expressed the idea that PWIM had a positive effect on their English teaching. ^ As integrated inferences, qualitative findings were used to explain the quantitative results that there were no significant differences of the effects of the PWIM between the experimental and control groups in both grade levels, from four contextual aspects: time constraints on PWIM implementation, teachers' resistance, how to use PWIM and PWIM implemented in a classroom over 55 students.^

The knowledge and use of critical thinking teaching strategies of faculty in associate degree nursing education programs

The purpose of this study was to determine the knowledge and use of critical thinking teaching strategies by full-time and part-time faculty in Associate Degree Nursing (ADN) programs. Sander's CTI (1992) instrument was adapted for this study and pilottested prior to the general administration to ADN faculty in Southeast Florida. This modified instrument, now termed the Burroughs Teaching Strategy Inventory (BTSI), returned reliability estimates (Cronbach alphas of .71, .74, and .82 for the three constructs) comparable to the original instrument. The BTSI was administered to 113 full-time and part-time nursing faculty in three community college nursing programs. The response rate was 92% for full-time faculty (n = 58) and 61 % for part-time faculty (n = 55). The majority of participants supported a combined definition of critical thinking in nursing which represented a composite of thinking skills that included reflective thinking, assessing alternative viewpoints, and the use of problem-solving. Full-time and part-time faculty used different teaching strategies. Fulltime faculty most often used multiple-choice exams and lecture while part-time faculty most frequently used discussion within their classes. One possible explanation for specific strategy choices and differences might be that full-time faculty taught predominately in theory classes where certain strategies would be more appropriate and part-time faculty taught predominately clinical classes. Both faculty types selected written nursing care plans as the second most effective critical thinking strategy. Faculty identified several strategies as being effective in teaching critical thinking. These strategies included discussion, case studies, higher order questioning, and concept analysis. These however, were not always the strategies that were used in either the classroom or clinical setting. Based on this study, the author recommends that if the profession continues to stress critical thinking as a vital component of practice, nursing faculty should receive education in appropriate critical teaching strategies. Both in-service seminars and workshops could be used to further the knowledge and use of critical thinking strategies by faculty. Qualitative research should be done to determine why nursing faculty use self-selected teaching strategies.

The Use of a Computer Graphic Organizer for Persuasive Composition Writing by Hispanic Students with Specific Learning Disabilities

Many culturally and linguistically diverse (CLD) students with specific learning disabilities (SLD) struggle with the writing process. Particularly, they have difficulties developing and expanding ideas, organizing and elaborating sentences, and revising and editing their compositions (Graham, Harris, & Larsen, 2001; Myles, 2002). Computer graphic organizers offer a possible solution to assist them in their writing. This study investigated the effects of a computer graphic organizer on the persuasive writing compositions of Hispanic middle school students with SLD. A multiple baseline design across subjects was used to examine its effects on six dependent variables: number of arguments and supporting details, number and percentage of transferred arguments and supporting details, planning time, writing fluency, syntactical maturity (measured by T-units, the shortest grammatical sentence without fragments), and overall organization. Data were collected and analyzed throughout baseline and intervention. Participants were taught persuasive writing and the writing process prior to baseline. During baseline, participants were given a prompt and asked to use paper and pencil to plan their compositions. A computer was used for typing and editing. Intervention required participants to use a computer graphic organizer for planning and then a computer for typing and editing. The planning sheets and written composition were printed and analyzed daily along with the time each participant spent on planning. The use of computer graphic organizers had a positive effect on the planning and persuasive writing compositions. Increases were noted in the number of supporting details planned, percentage of supporting details transferred, planning time, writing fluency, syntactical maturity in number of T-units, and overall organization of the composition. Minimal to negligible increases were noted in the mean number of arguments planned and written. Varying effects were noted in the percent of transferred arguments and there was a decrease in the T-unit mean length. This study extends the limited literature on the effects of computer graphic organizers as a prewriting strategy for Hispanic students with SLD. In order to fully gauge the potential of this intervention, future research should investigate the use of different features of computer graphic organizer programs, its effects with other writing genres, and different populations.

Vocabulary Learning through Use of the Picture-Word Inductive Model for Young English Learners in China: A Mixed Methods Examination Using Cognitive Load Theory

English has been taught as a core and compulsory subject in China for decades. Recently, the demand for English in China has increased dramatically. China now has the world’s largest English-learning population. The traditional English-teaching method cannot continue to be the only approach because it merely focuses on reading, grammar and translation, which cannot meet English learners and users’ needs (i.e., communicative competence and skills in speaking and writing). This study was conducted to investigate if the Picture-Word Inductive Model (PWIM), a new pedagogical method using pictures and inductive thinking, would benefit English learners in China in terms of potential higher output in speaking and writing. With the gauge of Cognitive Load Theory (CLT), specifically, its redundancy effect, I investigated whether processing words and a picture concurrently would present a cognitive overload for English learners in China. I conducted a mixed methods research study. A quasi-experiment (pretest, intervention for seven weeks, and posttest) was conducted using 234 students in four groups in Lianyungang, China (58 fourth graders and 57 seventh graders as an experimental group with PWIM and 59 fourth graders and 60 seventh graders as a control group with the traditional method). No significant difference in the effects of PWIM was found on vocabulary acquisition based on grade levels. Observations, questionnaires with open-ended questions, and interviews were deployed to answer the three remaining research questions. A few students felt cognitively overloaded when they encountered too many writing samples, too many new words at one time, repeated words, mismatches between words and pictures, and so on. Many students listed and exemplified numerous strengths of PWIM, but a few mentioned weaknesses of PWIM. The students expressed the idea that PWIM had a positive effect on their English teaching. As integrated inferences, qualitative findings were used to explain the quantitative results that there were no significant differences of the effects of the PWIM between the experimental and control groups in both grade levels, from four contextual aspects: time constraints on PWIM implementation, teachers’ resistance, how to use PWIM and PWIM implemented in a classroom over 55 students.