Does the Pareto Distribution of Hurricane Damage Inherit its Fat Tail from a Zipf Distribution of Assets at Hazard?

Tropical Cyclones are a continuing threat to life and property. Willoughby (2012) found that a Pareto (power-law) cumulative distribution fitted to the most damaging 10% of US hurricane seasons fit their impacts well. Here, we find that damage follows a Pareto distribution because the assets at hazard follow a Zipf distribution, which can be thought of as a Pareto distribution with exponent 1. The Z-CAT model is an idealized hurricane catastrophe model that represents a coastline where populated places with Zipf- distributed assets are randomly scattered and damaged by virtual hurricanes with sizes and intensities generated through a Monte-Carlo process. Results produce realistic Pareto exponents. The ability of the Z-CAT model to simulate different climate scenarios allowed testing of sensitivities to Maximum Potential Intensity, landfall rates and building structure vulnerability. The Z-CAT model results demonstrate that a statistical significant difference in damage is found when only changes in the parameters create a doubling of damage.

Essays on the selection of securities: Decision on acquisition and issuance perspectives and decision rules

This dissertation is a discourse on the capital market and its interactive framework of acquisition and issuance of financial assets that drive the economy from both sides—investors/lenders and issuers/users of capital assets. My work consists of four essays in financial economics that offer a spectrum of revisions to this significant area of study. The first essay is a delineation of the capital market over the past half a century and major developments on capital markets on issues that pertain to the investor's opportunity set and the corporation's capital-raising availability set. This chapter should have merits on two counts: (i) a comprehensive account of capital markets and return-generating assets and (ii) a backdrop against which I present my findings in Chapters 2 through 4. ^ In Chapter 2, I rework on the Markowitz-Roy-Tobin structure of the efficient frontier and of the Separation Theorem. Starting off with a 2-asset portfolio and extending the paradigm to an n-asset portfolio, I bring out the optimal choice of assets for an investor under constrained utility maximization. In this chapter, I analyze the selection and revision-theoretic construct and bring out optimum choices. The effect of a change in perceived risk or return in the mind of an investor is ascertained on the portfolio composition. ^ Chapter 3 takes a look into corporations that issue market securities. The question of how a corporation decides what kinds of securities it should issue in the marketplace to raise funds brings out the classic value invariance proposition of Modigliani and Miller and fills the gap that existed in the literature for almost half a century. I question the general validity in the classic results of Modigliani and Miller and modify the existing literature on the celebrated value invariance proposition. ^ Chapter 4 takes the Modigliani-Miller regime to its correct prescription in the presence of corporate and personal taxes. I show that Modigliani-Miller's age-old proposition needs corrections and extensions, which I derive. ^ My dissertation overall brings all of these corrections and extensions to the existing literature as my findings, showing that capital markets are in an ever-changing state of necessary revision. ^

Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors’ sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, “ Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices”, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, “Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm”, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, “Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection”, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

The market value implications of pension asset allocation

Pension funds have been part of the private sector since the 1850's. Defined Benefit pension plans [DB], where a company promises to make regular contributions to investment accounts held for participating employees in order to pay a promised lifelong annuity, are significant capital markets participants, amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2010 (Federal Reserve Board, 2013). In 2006, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.158 (SFAS 158), Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postemployment Plans, shifted information concerning funding status and pension asset/liability composition from disclosure in the footnotes to recognition in the financial statements. I add to the literature by being the first to examine the effect of recent pension reform during the financial crisis of 2008-09. This dissertation is comprised of three related essays. In my first essay, I investigate whether investors assign different pricing multiples to the various classes of pension assets when valuing firms. The pricing multiples on all classes of assets are significantly different from each other, but only investments in bonds and equities were value-relevant during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with investors viewing pension liabilities as liabilities of the firm, the pricing multiples on pension liabilities are significantly larger than those on non-pension liabilities. The only pension costs significantly associated with firm value are actual rate of return and interest expense. In my second essay, I investigate the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows, extending the Barth et al. (2001a) model of the accrual process. Using market value of equity as a proxy for cash flows, the results of this study suggest that aggregate accounting amounts mask how the components of earnings affect investors' ability to predict future cash flows. Disaggregating pension earnings components and accruals results in an increase in predictive power. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, however, investors placed a greater (and negative) weight on the incremental information contained in the individual components of accruals. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications of accruals. Finally, in my third essay I investigate how investors view under-funded plans. On average, investors: view deficits arising from under-funded plans as belonging to the firm; reward firms with fully or over-funded pension plans; and encourage those funds with unfunded pension plans to become funded. Investors also encourage conservative pension asset allocations to mitigate firm risk, and smaller firms are perceived as being better able to handle the risk associated with underfunded plans. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009 underfunded status had a lower negative association with market value. In all three models, there are significant differences in pre- and post- SFAS 158 periods. These results are robust to various scenarios of the timing of the financial crisis and an alternative measure of funding.

A comprehensive portfolio construction under stochastic environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. ^ A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: (a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, (b) implement large-scale optimizations, and (c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. ^ The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. ^ The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH). ^

Liquidity, governance and adverse selection in asset pricing

A plethora of recent literature on asset pricing provides plenty of empirical evidence on the importance of liquidity, governance and adverse selection of equity on pricing of assets together with more traditional factors such as market beta and the Fama-French factors. However, literature has usually stressed that these factors are priced individually. In this dissertation we argue that these factors may be related to each other, hence not only individual but also joint tests of their significance is called for. ^ In the three related essays, we examine the liquidity premium in the context of the finer three-digit SIC industry classification, joint importance of liquidity and governance factors as well as governance and adverse selection. Recent studies by Core, Guay and Rusticus (2006) and Ben-Rephael, Kadan and Wohl (2010) find that governance and liquidity premiums are dwindling in the last few years. One reason could be that liquidity is very unevenly distributed across industries. This could affect the interpretation of prior liquidity studies. Thus, in the first chapter we analyze the relation of industry clustering and liquidity risk following a finer industry classification suggested by Johnson, Moorman and Sorescu (2009). In the second chapter, we examine the dwindling influence of the governance factor if taken simultaneously with liquidity. We argue that this happens since governance characteristics are potentially a proxy for information asymmetry that may be better captured by market liquidity of a company's shares. Hence, we jointly examine both the factors, namely, governance and liquidity - in a series of standard asset pricing tests. Our results reconfirm the importance of governance and liquidity in explaining stock returns thus independently corroborating the findings of Amihud (2002) and Gompers, Ishii and Metrick (2003). Moreover, governance is not subsumed by liquidity. Lastly, we analyze the relation of governance and adverse selection, and again corroborate previous findings of a priced governance factor. Furthermore, we ascertain the importance of microstructure measures in asset pricing by employing Huang and Stoll's (1997) method to extract an adverse selection variable and finding evidence for its explanatory power in four-factor regressions.^

A Comprehensive Portfolio Construction Under Stochastic Environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, b) implement large-scale optimizations, and c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH).

Liquidity, Governance and Adverse Selection in Asset Pricing

A plethora of recent literature on asset pricing provides plenty of empirical evidence on the importance of liquidity, governance and adverse selection of equity on pricing of assets together with more traditional factors such as market beta and the Fama-French factors. However, literature has usually stressed that these factors are priced individually. In this dissertation we argue that these factors may be related to each other, hence not only individual but also joint tests of their significance is called for. In the three related essays, we examine the liquidity premium in the context of the finer three-digit SIC industry classification, joint importance of liquidity and governance factors as well as governance and adverse selection. Recent studies by Core, Guay and Rusticus (2006) and Ben-Rephael, Kadan and Wohl (2010) find that governance and liquidity premiums are dwindling in the last few years. One reason could be that liquidity is very unevenly distributed across industries. This could affect the interpretation of prior liquidity studies. Thus, in the first chapter we analyze the relation of industry clustering and liquidity risk following a finer industry classification suggested by Johnson, Moorman and Sorescu (2009). In the second chapter, we examine the dwindling influence of the governance factor if taken simultaneously with liquidity. We argue that this happens since governance characteristics are potentially a proxy for information asymmetry that may be better captured by market liquidity of a company’s shares. Hence, we jointly examine both the factors, namely, governance and liquidity – in a series of standard asset pricing tests. Our results reconfirm the importance of governance and liquidity in explaining stock returns thus independently corroborating the findings of Amihud (2002) and Gompers, Ishii and Metrick (2003). Moreover, governance is not subsumed by liquidity. Lastly, we analyze the relation of governance and adverse selection, and again corroborate previous findings of a priced governance factor. Furthermore, we ascertain the importance of microstructure measures in asset pricing by employing Huang and Stoll’s (1997) method to extract an adverse selection variable and finding evidence for its explanatory power in four-factor regressions.

Exchange rate overvaluation under hyperinflation: The case of Peru

This dissertation examines the behavior of the exchange rate under two different scenarios. The first one is characterized by, relatively, low inflation or a situation where prices adjust sluggishly. The second is a high inflation economy where prices respond very rapidly even to unanticipated shocks. In the first one, following a monetary expansion, the exchange rate overshoots, i.e. the nominal exchange rate depreciates at a faster pace than the price level. Under high levels of inflation, prices change faster than the exchange rate so the exchange rate undershoots its long run equilibrium value.^ The standard work in this area, Dornbusch (1976), explains the overshooting process in the context of perfect capital mobility and sluggish adjustment in the goods market. A monetary expansion will make the exchange rate increase beyond its long run equilibrium value. This dissertation expands on Dornbusch's model and provides an analysis of the exchange rate under conditions of currency substitution and price flexibility, characteristics of the Peruvian economy during the hyper inflation process that took place at the end of the 1980's. The results of the modified Dornbusch model reveal that, given a monetary expansion, the change in the price level will be larger than the change in the exchange rate if prices react more than proportionally to the monetary shock.^ We will expect this over-reaction in circumstances of high inflation when the velocity of money is increasing very rapidly. Increasing velocity of money, gives rise to a higher relative price variability which in turn contributes to the appearance of new financial (and also non-financial) instruments that report a higher return than the exchange rate, causing people to switch their demand for foreign exchange to this new assets. In the context of currency substitution, economic agents hoard and use foreign exchange as a store of value. The big decline in output originated by hyper inflation induces people to sell this hoarded money to finance current expenses, increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Both, the decrease in demand and the increase in supply reduce the price of foreign exchange i.e. the real exchange rate. The findings mentioned above are tested using Peruvian data for the period January 1985-July 1990, the results of the econometric estimation confirm our findings in the theoretical model. ^

Theory of foreign portfolio investment

This dissertation examines one category of international capital flows, private portfolio investments (private refers to the source of capital). There is an overall lack of a coherent and consistent definition of foreign portfolio investment. We clarify these definitional issues.^ Two main questions that pertain to private foreign portfolio investments (FPI) are explored. The first problem is the phenomenon of home preference, often referred to as home bias. Related to this are the observed cross-investment flows between countries that seem to contradict the textbook rendition of private FPI. A description of the theories purporting to resolve the home preference puzzle (and the cross-investment one) are summarized and evaluated. Most of this literature considers investors from major developed countries. I consider--as well--whether investors in less developed countries have home preference.^ The dissertation shows that home preference is indeed pervasive and profound across countries, in both developed and emerging markets. For the U.S., I examine home bias in both equity and bond holdings as well. I find that home bias is greater when we look at equity and bond holdings than equity holdings solely.^ In this dissertation a model is developed to explain home bias. This model is original and fills a gap in the literature as there have been no satisfactory models that handle at the same time both home preference and cross-border holdings in the context of information asymmetries. This model reflects what we see in the data and permits us to reach certain results by the use of comparative statics methods. The model suggests, counter-intuitively, that as the rate of return in a country relative to the world rate of return increases, home preference decreases. In the context of our relatively simple model we ascribe this result to the higher variance of the now higher return for home assets. We also find, this time as intended, that as risk aversion increases, investors diversify further so that home preference decreases.^ The second question that the dissertation deals with is the volatility of private foreign portfolio investment. Countries that are recipients of these flows have been wary of such flows because of their perceived volatility. Often the contrast is made with the perceived absence of volatility in foreign direct investment flows. I analyze the validity of these concerns using first net flow data and then gross flow data. The results show that FPI is not, in relative terms, more volatile than other flows in our sample of eight countries (half were developed countries and the rest were emerging markets).^ The implication therefore is that restricting FPI flows may be harmful in the sense that private capital may not be allocated efficiently worldwide to the detriment of capital poor economies. More to the point, any such restrictions would in fact be misguided. ^

Earnings management using estimates and the timing of adoption of accounting standards: An empirical examination of pensions

This study investigates the relationship between adoption timing of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 87 and earnings management after adoption. Earnings management, defined consistent with Schipper (1989), is tested through hypotheses using (1) a portfolio approach and (2) pension rates. One Hypothesis uses a Modified Jones (1991) Model as a proxy for discretionary accruals and the other uses pension rate estimates.^ Statistically significant relationships are found between adoption timing and (1) discretionary accruals and (2) estimated rate-of-return (ROR) on pension plan assets. Early adopting firms tend to have lower discretionary accruals after adoption than on-time adopters. They also tend to use higher ROR estimates which are not supported by higher actual returns. Thus, while early adopters may be using ROR to manage income, this tends to not result in higher discretionary accruals. ^

Rebirth of a neighborhood: In streetscape design

This study involves one of the eight neighborhoods in the City of Miami named Little Havana. Little Havana, once a flourishing Hispanic community during the 1960s through the 1980s, is now experiencing housing deterioration, economic disinvestment, and increased social needs. ^ Although the City developed a Community Development Plan for the neighborhood addressing the neighborhood problems, needs, and objectives, it failed to address and take advantage of the area's prominent commercial street, Calle Ocho, as a cultural catalyst for the revitalization of the neighborhood. With an urban study and understanding of the area's needs for transit system improvements, program analysis, and a valuable architectural inventory, an intervention project can be developed. The project will capitalize on the area's historical and cultural assets and serve as a step towards altering the area's decline and revitalizing the street and community to recapture the energy present during the early years of the massive Cuban migration. ^

Rich and poor, white and black, free and slave: The social history of Cuba's tobacco farmers, 1763--1817

Tobacco was of primary importance to Spain, and its impact on Cuba's economy and society was greater than just the numbers of farms, workers, or production, demonstrated by the Spanish crown's outlay of monies for capital assets, bureaucrats' salaries, and payments to farmers for their crop. This study is a micro- and macro-level study of rural life in colonial Cuba and the interconnected relationships among society, agricultural production, state control, and the island's economic development. ^ By placing Cuba's tobacco farmers at the forefront of this social history, this work revisits and offers alternatives to two prevailing historiographical views of rural Cuba from 1763 (the year Havana returned to Spanish control following the Seven Years' War) to 1817 (the final year of the 100-year royal monopoly on Cuban tobacco). Firstly, it argues against the primacy of sugar over other agricultural crops, a view that has shaped decades of scholarship, and challenges the thesis which maintains the Cuban tobacco farmer was almost exclusively poor, white, and employed free labor, rather than slaves, in the production of their crop. ^ This study establishes the importance of tobacco as an agricultural product, and argues that Cuban tobacco growers were a heterogeneous group, revealing the role that its cultivation may have played in helping some slaves earn their freedom. ^

Secondary stakeholders as agents of influence: Three essays on political risk, reputation, and multinational performance

Organizational researchers have recently taken an interest in the ways in which social movements, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other secondary stakeholders attempt to influence corporate behavior. Scholars, however, have yet to carefully probe the link between secondary stakeholder legal action and target firm stock market performance. This is puzzling given the sharp rise in NGO-initiated civil lawsuits against corporations in recent years for alleged overseas human rights abuses and environmental misconduct. Furthermore, few studies have considered how such lawsuits impact a target firm’s intangible assets, namely its image and reputation. Structured in the form of three essays, this dissertation examined the antecedents and consequences of secondary stakeholder legal activism in both conceptual and empirical settings. ^ Essay One argued that conventional approaches to understanding political risk fail to account for the reputational risks to multinational enterprises (MNEs) posed by transnational networks of human rights NGOs employing litigation-based strategies. It offered a new framework for understanding this emerging challenge to multinational corporate activity. Essay Two empirically tested the relationship between the filing of human rights-related civil lawsuits and corporate stock market performance using an event study methodology and regression analysis. The statistical analysis performed showed that target firms experience a significant decline in share price upon filing and that both industry and nature of the lawsuit are significantly and negatively related to shareholder wealth. Essay Three drew upon social movement and social identity theories to develop and test a set of hypotheses on how secondary stakeholder groups select their targets for human rights-related civil lawsuits. The results of a logistic regression model offered support for the proposition that MNE targets are chosen based on both interest and identity factors. The results of these essays suggest that legal action initiated by secondary stakeholder groups is a new and salient threat to multinational business and that firms doing business in countries with weak political institutions should factor this into corporate planning and take steps to mitigate their exposure to such risks.^