Essays on the determinants of private investment: The effects of relative price uncertainty and political instability

The objective of this study was to provide empirical evidence on the effects of relative price uncertainty and political instability on private investment. My effort is expressed in a single-equation model using macroeconomic and socio-political data from eight Latin American countries for the period 1970–1996. Relative price uncertainty is measured by the implied volatility of the exchange rate and political instability is measured by using indicators of social unrest and political violence. ^ I found that, after controlling for other variables, relative price uncertainty and political instability are negatively associated with private investment. Macroeconomic and political stability are key ingredients for the achievement of a strong investment response. This highlights the need to develop the state and build a civil society in which citizens can participate in decision-making and express consent without generating social turmoil. At the same time the government needs to implement structural policies along with relative price adjustments to eliminate excess volatility in price movements in order to provide a stable environment for investment. ^

Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

The interactive effects of predators, resources, and disturbance on freshwater snail populations from the Everglades

The origins of population dynamics depend on interplay between abiotic and biotic factors; the relative importance of each changing across space and time. Predation is a central feature of ecological communities that removes individuals (consumption) and alters prey traits (non-consumptive). Resource quality mitigates non-consumptive predator effects by stimulating growth and reproduction. Disturbance resets predator-prey interactions by removing both. I integrate experiments, time-series analysis, and performance trials to examine the relative importance of these on the population dynamics of a snail species by studying a variety of their traits. A review of ninety-three published articles revealed that snail abundance was much less in the Everglades and similar ecosystems compared to all other freshwater ecosystems considered. Separating consumptive from non-consumptive (cues) predator effects at different phosphorous levels with an experiment determined that phosphorous stimulated, but predator cues inhibited snail growth (34% vs. 23%), activity (38% vs. 53%), and reproductive effort (99% vs. 90%) compared to controls. Cues induced taller shells and smaller openings and moved to refugia where they reduced periphyton by 8%. Consumptive predator effects were minor in comparison. In a reciprocal transplant cage experiment along a predator cue and phosphorous gradient created by a canal, snails grew 10% faster and produced 37% more eggs far from the canal (fewer cues) when fed phosphorous-enriched periphyton from near the canal. Time-series analysis at four sites and predator performance trials reveal that phosphorous-enriched regions support larger snail populations, seasonal drying removes snails at all sites, crayfish negatively affect populations in enriched regions, and molluscivorous fish consume snails in the wet season. Combining these studies reveals interplay between resources, predators, and seasonality that limit snail populations in the Everglades and lead to their low abundance compared to other freshwater ecosystems. Resource quality is emerging as the critical factor because improving resources profoundly improved growth and reproduction; seasonal drying and predation become important at times and places. This work contributes to the general understanding in ecology of the relative importance of different factors that structure populations and provides evidence that bolsters monitoring efforts to assess the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan that show phosphorous enrichment is a major driver of ecosystem change.

Metacommunity Structure Along Resource and Disturbance Gradients in Everglades Wetlands

We evaluated metacommunity hypotheses of landscape arrangement (indicative of dispersal limitation) and environmental gradients (hydroperiod and nutrients) in structuring macroinvertebrate and fish communities in the southern Everglades. We used samples collected at sites from the eastern boundary of the southern Everglades and from Shark River Slough, to evaluate the role of these factors in metacommunity structure. We used eigenfunction spatial analysis to model community structure among sites and distance-based redundancy analysis to partition the variability in communities between spatial and environmental filters. For most animal communities, hydrological parameters had a greater influence on structure than nutrient enrichment, however both had large effects. The influence of spatial effects indicative of dispersal limitation was weak and only periphyton infauna appeared to be limited by regional dispersal. At the landscape scale, communities were well-mixed, but strongly influenced by hydrology. Local-scale species dominance was influenced by water-permanence and nutrient enrichment. Nutrient enrichment is limited to water inflow points associated with canals, which may explain its impact in this data set. Hydroperiod and nutrient enrichment are controlled by water managers; our analysis indicates that the decisions they make have strong effects on the communities at the base of the Everglades food web.

The role of disturbance and resource availability in structuring plant communities

Disturbances alter competitive hierarchies by reducing populations and altering resource regimes. The interaction between disturbance and resource availability may strongly influence the structure of plant communities, as observed in the recolonization of seagrass beds in outer Florida Bay that were denuded by sea-urchin overgrazing. There is no consensus concerning the interaction between disturbance and resource availability on competition intensity (CI). On the other hand, species diversity is dependent on both factors. Peaks in species diversity have been observed to occur when both resource availability and disturbance intensity are high, thus implying that CI is low. Based on this supposition of previous models, I presented the resource-disturbance hypothesis as a graphical model to make predictions of CI as a function of both disturbance intensity and the availability of a limiting resource. The predictions of this model were tested in two experiments within a seagrass community in south Florida, in which transplants of Halodule wrightii were placed into near-monocultures of Syringodium filiforme in a full-factorial array. In the first experiment, two measures of relative CI were calculated based on the changes in the short-shoot number (SS) and of rhizome length (RHL) on the transplants. Both light and disturbance were identified as important factors, though the interaction between light * disturbance was not significant. Relative CISS ranged between 0.2 and 1.0 for the high light and high disturbance treatments and the relative CIRHL < 0 for the same treatments, though results were not significantly different due to high variability and low sample size. These results, including a contour schematic using six data points from the different treatment combinations, preliminarily suggests that the resource-disturbance hypothesis may be used may be used as a next step in developing our understanding of the mechanisms involved in structuring plant communities. Furthermore, the focus of the model is on the outcome of CI, which may be a useful predictor of changes in species diversity. Further study is needed to confirm the results of this study and validate the usefulness of this model in other systems. ^

Integrated Performance Assessment of Engineering Projects at the Interface of Emergent Properties and Uncertainty

Investigation of the performance of engineering project organizations is critical for understanding and eliminating inefficiencies in today’s dynamic global markets. The existing theoretical frameworks consider project organizations as monolithic systems and attribute the performance of project organizations to the characteristics of the constituents. However, project organizations consist of complex interdependent networks of agents, information, and resources whose interactions give rise to emergent properties that affect the overall performance of project organizations. Yet, our understanding of the emergent properties in project organizations and their impact on project performance is rather limited. This limitation is one of the major barriers towards creation of integrated theories of performance assessment in project organizations. The objective of this paper is to investigate the emergent properties that affect the ability of project organization to cope with uncertainty. Based on the theories of complex systems, we propose and test a novel framework in which the likelihood of performance variations in project organizations could be investigated based on the environment of uncertainty (i.e., static complexity, dynamic complexity, and external source of disruption) as well as the emergent properties (i.e., absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, and restorative capacity) of project organizations. The existence and significance of different dimensions of the environment of uncertainty and emergent properties in the proposed framework are tested based on the analysis of the information collected from interviews with senior project managers in the construction industry. The outcomes of this study provide a novel theoretical lens for proactive bottom-up investigation of performance in project organizations at the interface of emergent properties and uncertainty

Strategic positioning of Taiwan in the outsourcing market: Evidence from information technology services and electronic manufacturing outsourcing to China

In outsourcing relationships with China, the Electronic Manufacturing (EM) and Information Technology Services (ITS) industry in Taiwan may possess such advantages as the continuing growth of its production value, complete manufacturing supply chain, low production cost and a large-scale Chinese market, and language and culture similarity compared to outsourcing to other countries. Nevertheless, the Council for Economic Planning and Development of Executive Yuan (CEPD) found that Taiwan's IT services outsourcing to China is subject to certain constraints and might not be as successful as the EM outsourcing (Aggarwal, 2003; CEPD, 2004a; CIER, 2003; Einhorn and Kriplani, 2003; Kumar and Zhu, 2006; Li and Gao, 2003; MIC, 2006). Some studies examined this issue, but failed to (1) provide statistical evidence about lower prevalence rates of IT services outsourcing, and (2) clearly explain the lower prevalence rates of IT services outsourcing by identifying similarities and differences between both types of outsourcing contexts. This research seeks to fill that gap and possibly provide potential strategic guidelines to ITS firms in Taiwan. This study adopts Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) as the theoretical basis. The basic premise is that different types of outsourcing activities may incur differing transaction costs and realize varying degrees of outsourcing success due to differential attributes of the transactions in the outsourcing process. Using primary data gathered from questionnaire surveys of ninety two firms, the results from exploratory analysis and binary logistic regression indicated that (1) when outsourcing to China, Taiwanese firms' ITS outsourcing tends to have higher level of asset specificity, uncertainty and technical skills relative to EM outsourcing, and these features indirectly reduce firms' outsourcing prevalence rates via their direct positive impacts on transaction costs; (2) Taiwanese firms' ITS outsourcing tends to have lower level of transaction structurability relative to EM outsourcing, and this feature indirectly increases firms' outsourcing prevalence rates via its direct negative impacts on transaction costs; (3) frequency does influence firms' transaction costs in ITS outsourcing positively, but does not bring impacts into their outsourcing prevalence rates, (4) relatedness does influence firms' transaction costs positively and prevalence rates negatively in ITS outsourcing, but its impacts on the prevalence rates are not caused by the mediation effects of transaction costs, and (5) firm size of outsourcing provider does not affect firms' transaction costs, but does affect their outsourcing prevalence rates in ITS outsourcing directly and positively. Using primary data gathered from face-to-face interviews of executives from seven firms, the results from inductive analysis indicated that (1) IT services outsourcing has lower prevalence rates than EM outsourcing, and (2) this result is mainly attributed to Taiwan's core competence in manufacturing and management and higher overall transaction costs of IT services outsourcing. Specifically, there is not much difference between both types of outsourcing context in the transaction characteristics of reputation and most aspects of overall comparison. Although there are some differences in the feature of firm size of the outsourcing provider, the difference doesn't cause apparent impacts on firms' overall transaction costs. The medium or above medium difference in the transaction characteristics of asset specificity, uncertainty, frequency, technical skills, transaction structurability, and relatedness has caused higher overall transaction costs for IT services outsourcing. This higher cost might cause lower prevalence rates for ITS outsourcing relative to EM outsourcing. Overall, the interview results are consistent with the statistical analyses and provide support to my expectation that in outsourcing to China, Taiwan's electronic manufacturing firms do have lower prevalence rates of IT services outsourcing relative to EM outsourcing due to higher transaction costs caused by certain attributes. To solve this problem, firms' management should aim at identifying alternative strategies and strive to reduce their overall transaction costs of IT services outsourcing by initiating appropriate strategies which fit their environment and needs.

Paleoenvironmental change in wetlands of the Florida Everglades, southeast USA

In this special issue, we report on efforts to reconstruct paleoclimate/paleolimnology of the Florida Everglades, applying a wide range of techniques including sedimentological, micropaleontological and biogeochemical approaches. The papers included here describe results obtained by studies conducted in Everglades National Park and the greater South Florida Everglades by Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research Program (FCE LTER) collaborators. This multi-investigator project contrasts nutrient dynamics in two inland-to-marine transects aligned along separate drainages in southern Florida that differ in their susceptibility to coastal pressures and in volume of freshwater delivery. This effort focuses on the paleoecological aspects of FCE LTER research that address scales of ecosystem transformations driven by climate variability and change and human activities. The central question addressed by this body of work is “How is the shape of the freshwater-to-marine gradient in the Florida coastal Everglades controlled by changes in climate, freshwater inflow (i.e. through human activities), and disturbance (i.e. sea level rise, hurricanes, fire)?”

Human disturbance and forest diversity in the Tansa Valley, India

We assessed the diversity of woody plants at 15 forested sites in the Tansa Valley of Thane District, in Maharashtra, India. The fewest species (11) were seen at a degraded mangrove site near the river mouth, and the greatest number (150) in the rich semi-evergreen forest on Tungar Hill. For all sites there were 141 tree, 25 shrub and 15 liana species, a total of 181 species. Excluding the mangrove site, which had no species in common with the other 14 sites, we analyzed the species distributions in detail. 2 These sites ranged in area from 4 to 30 km each, had woody floras of 89 6 6 species, and varied in intensity of human impact. Despite a history of exploitation and substantial reduction in biomass from firewood collecting, set fires and illicit tree felling, considerable plant diversity remains in the area.We found a modest increase in species richness in transects away from two villages. We observed the exploitation of the forest by the principal users, primarily of the Warli Tribe. They exploited a wide variety of forest resources (92 species), for medicines, foods, construction materials, household goods, manure and other purposes. They collected 15 items for sale. By far the single most important item collected was firewood, which dramatically reduced forest biomass within 2 km of villages. The species distributions in these forest remnants are strongly nested, mostly due to varying degrees of disturbance at individual sites. The high species diversity on Tungar Hill is most likely a relict of the earlier character of forests throughout much of the valley. It merits the highest priorities for preservation, as a refuge for Western Ghat species at the northern limits of their distributions.

A comparative analysis of school satisfaction and dropout risk of middle school students attending programs for students with emotional handicaps, severe emotional disturbance and general education students attending center schools and satellite schools

This study evaluated school satisfaction as an indicator of dropout risk of students with Emotional Handicaps (EH) and students with Severe Emotional Disturbance (SED). The students attended two different kinds of middle schools in a largely urban school district in South Florida. One hundred eight students in grade 8 (ages 13-16) participated in this study. Participants were administered the National Dropout Prevention Assessment (NDPA). Forty participants with EH and SED attended a special center school. Thirty-one participants with EH and SED attended satellite programs in a regular middle school. Thirty-seven general education participants attended the same regular middle school. Overall school satisfaction scores were generated, as well as three primary factors (school, environment and personal) and 16 subscales (school atmosphere, future income, difficulty level of classwork, teacher relationships, peer relationships, intrinsic interest in classwork, school hours, classwork stress, general attitude towards school, family influence, perceived opportunity for career, future goals, travel distance, leisure time, self-appraisal of performance, and self-esteem).^ Comparison of students with EH and SED revealed that both groups of students were rated at "low risk" of becoming dropouts on the Environmental factor and the Difficulty of Schoolwork subscale. Students with EH were rated at "caution risk" risk on the Travel Distance subscale. Students with SED were rated at "high risk" on this subscale.^ There were no significant differences in school satisfaction and dropout risk between different program delivery models. There were also no significant differences for category of students (EH, SED) by school type (center school, satellite program). All students were rated at "low risk" of dropping out of school.^ There were significant differences between general education students and students with EH and SED attending satellite programs. Students with EH and SED were rated at "caution risk" for dropping out on the Travel Distance and the Leisure Time subscales. Discussion of results, implications for practice and recommendations for further research are included. ^

Hurricane disturbance and recovery of energy balance, CO2 fluxes and canopy structure in a mangrove forest of the Florida Everglades

Eddy covariance (EC) estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and energy balance are examined to investigate the functional responses of a mature mangrove forest to a disturbance generated by Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005 in the Florida Everglades. At the EC site, high winds from the hurricane caused nearly 100% defoliation in the upper canopy and widespread tree mortality. Soil temperatures down to -50 cm increased, and air temperature lapse rates within the forest canopy switched from statically stable to statically unstable conditions following the disturbance. Unstable conditions allowed more efficient transport of water vapor and CO2 from the surface up to the upper canopy layer. Significant increases in latent heat fluxes (LE) and nighttime net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were also observed and sensible heat fluxes (H) as a proportion of net radiation decreased significantly in response to the disturbance. Many of these impacts persisted through much of the study period through 2009. However, local albedo and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer) data (the Enhanced Vegetation Index) indicated a substantial proportion of active leaf area recovered before the EC measurements began 1 year after the storm. Observed changes in the vertical distribution and the degree of clumping in newly emerged leaves may have affected the energy balance. Direct comparisons of daytime NEE values from before the storm and after our measurements resumed did not show substantial or consistent differences that could be attributed to the disturbance. Regression analyses on seasonal time scales were required to differentiate the storm's impact on monthly average daytime NEE from the changes caused by interannual variability in other environmental drivers. The effects of the storm were apparent on annual time scales, and CO2 uptake remained approximately 250 g C m-2 yr-1 lower in 2009 compared to the average annual values measured in 2004-2005. Dry season CO2 uptake was relatively more affected by the disturbance than wet season values. Complex leaf regeneration dynamics on damaged trees during ecosystem recovery are hypothesized to lead to the variable dry versus wet season impacts on daytime NEE. In contrast, nighttime CO2 release (i.e., nighttime respiration) was consistently and significantly greater, possibly as a result of the enhanced decomposition of litter and coarse woody debris generated by the storm, and this effect was most apparent in the wet seasons compared to the dry seasons. The largest pre- and post-storm differences in NEE coincided roughly with the delayed peak in cumulative mortality of stems in 2007-2008. Across the hurricane-impacted region, cumulative tree mortality rates were also closely correlated with declines in peat surface elevation. Mangrove forest-atmosphere interactions are interpreted with respect to the damage and recovery of stand dynamics and soil accretion processes following the hurricane.

An assessment of natural and human disturbance effects on Mexican ecosystems: current trends and research gaps

Mexico harbors more than 10% of the planet’s endemic species. However, the integrity and biodiversity of many ecosystems is experiencing rapid transformation under the influence of a wide array of human and natural disturbances. In order to disentangle the effects of human and natural disturbance regimes at different spatial and temporal scales, we selected six terrestrial (temperate montane forests, montane cloud forests, tropical rain forests, tropical semi-deciduous forests, tropical dry forests, and deserts) and four aquatic (coral reefs, mangrove forests, kelp forests and saline lakes) ecosystems. We used semiquantitative statistical methods to assess (1) the most important agents of disturbance affecting the ecosystems, (2) the vulnerability of each ecosystem to anthropogenic and natural disturbance, and (3) the differences in ecosystem disturbance regimes and their resilience. Our analysis indicates a significant variation in ecological responses, recovery capacity, and resilience among ecosystems. The constant and widespread presence of human impacts on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is reflected either in reduced area coverage for most systems, or reduced productivity and biodiversity, particularly in the case of fragile ecosystems (e.g., rain forests, coral reefs). In all cases, the interaction between historical human impacts and episodic high intensity natural disturbance (e.g., hurricanes, fires) has triggered a reduction in species diversity and induced significant changes in habitat distribution or species dominance. The lack of monitoring programs assessing before/after effects of major disturbances in Mexico is one of the major limitations to quantifying the commonalities and differences of disturbance effects on ecosystem properties.

Disturbance and the rising tide: the challenge of biodiversity management on low-island ecosystems

Sea-level rise presents an imminent threat to freshwater-dependent ecosystems on small oceanic islands, which often harbor rare and endemic taxa. Conservation of these assemblages is complicated by feedbacks between sea level and recurring pulse disturbances (eg hurricanes, fire). Once sea level reaches a critical level, the transition from a landscape characterized by mesophytic upland forests and freshwater wetlands to one dominated by mangroves can occur suddenly, following a single storm-surge event. We document such a trajectory, unfolding today in the Florida Keys. With sea level projected to rise substantially during the next century, ex-situ actions may be needed to conserve individual species of special concern. However, within existing public conservation units, managers have a responsibility to conserve extant biodiversity. We propose a strategy that combines the identification and intensive management of the most defensible core sites within a broader reserve system, in which refugia for biota facing local extirpation may be sought.

Variation and Uncertainty in Evaporation from a Subtropical Estuary: Florida Bay

Variation and uncertainty in estimated evaporation was determined over time and between two locations in Florida Bay, a subtropical estuary. Meteorological data were collected from September 2001 to August 2002 at Rabbit Key and Butternut Key within the Bay. Evaporation was estimated using both vapor flux and energy budget methods. The results were placed into a long-term context using 33 years of temperature and rainfall data collected in south Florida. Evaporation also was estimated from this long-term data using an empirical formula relating evaporation to clear sky solar radiation and air temperature. Evaporation estimates for the 12-mo period ranged from 144 to 175 cm yr21, depending on location and method, with an average of 163 cm yr21 (6 9%). Monthly values ranged from 9.2 to 18.5 cm, with the highest value observed in May, corresponding with the maximum in measured net radiation. Uncertainty estimates derived from measurement errors in the data were as much as 10%, and were large enough to obscure differences in evaporation between the two sites. Differences among all estimates for any month indicate the overall uncertainty in monthly evaporation, and ranged from 9% to 26%. Over a 33-yr period (1970–2002), estimated annual evaporation from Florida Bay ranged from 148 to 181 cm yr21, with an average of 166 cm yr21. Rainfall was consistently lower in Florida Bay than evaporation, with a long-term average of 106 cm yr21. Rainfall considered alone was uncorrelated with evaporation at both monthly and annual time scales; when the seasonal variation in clear sky radiation was also taken into account both net radiation and evaporation were significantly suppressed in months with high rainfall.

Application of excitation emission matrix fluorescence monitoring in the assessment of spatial and seasonal drivers of dissolved organic matter composition: Sources and physical disturbance controls

The environmental dynamics of dissolved organic matter (DOM) were characterized for a shallow, subtropical, seagrass-dominated estuarine bay, namely Florida Bay, USA. Large spatial and seasonal variations in DOM quantity and quality were assessed using dissolved organic C (DOC) measurements and spectrophotometric properties including excitation emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence with parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC). Surface water samples were collected monthly for 2 years across the bay. DOM characteristics were statistically different across the bay, and the bay was spatially characterized into four basins based on chemical characteristics of DOM as determined by EEM-PARAFAC. Differences between zones were explained based on hydrology, geomorphology, and primary productivity of the local seagrass community. In addition, potential disturbance effects from a very active hurricane season were identified. Although the overall seasonal patterns of DOM variations were not significantly affected on a bay-wide scale by this disturbance, enhanced freshwater delivery and associated P and DOM inputs (both quantity and quality) were suggested as potential drivers for the appearance of algal blooms in high impact areas. The application of EEM-PARAFAC proved to be ideally suited for studies requiring high sample throughput methods to assess spatial and temporal ecological drivers and to determine disturbance-induced impacts in aquatic ecosystems.