Investigation of the causes of serious injury and fatal crashes: An analysis using econometric models

The rate of fatal crashes in Florida has remained significantly higher than the national average for the last several years. The 2003 statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the latest available, show a fatality rate in Florida of 1.71 per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled compared to the national average of 1.48 per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled. The objective of this research is to better understand the driver, environmental, and roadway factors that affect the probability of injury severity in Florida. ^ In this research, the ordered logit model was used to develop six injury severity models; single-vehicle and two-vehicle crashes on urban freeways and urban principal arterials and two-vehicle crashes at urban signalized and unsignalized intersections. The data used in this research included all crashes that occurred on the state highway system for the period from 2001 to 2003 in the Southeast Florida region, which includes the Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties.^ The results of the analysis indicate that the age group and gender of the driver at fault were significant factors of injury severity risk across all models. The greatest risk of severe injury was observed for the age groups 55 to 65 and 66 and older. A positive association between injury severity and the race of the driver at fault was also found. Driver at fault of Hispanic origin was associated with a higher risk of severe injury for both freeway models and for the two-vehicle crash model on arterial roads. A higher risk of more severe injury crash involvement was also found when an African-American was the at fault driver on two-vehicle crashes on freeways. In addition, the arterial class was also found to be positively associated with a higher risk of severe crashes. Six-lane divided arterials exhibited the highest injury severity risk of all arterial classes. The lowest severe injury risk was found for one way roads. Alcohol involvement by the driver at fault was also found to be a significant risk of severe injury for the single-vehicle crash model on freeways. ^

The effect of the business cycle on the performance of socially responsible equity mutual funds

The current study applies a two-state switching regression model to examine the behavior of a hypothetical portfolio of ten socially responsible (SRI) equity mutual funds during the expansion and contraction phases of US business cycles between April 1991 and June 2009, based on the Carhart four-factor model, using monthly data. The model identified a business cycle effect on the performance of SRI equity mutual funds. Fund returns were less volatile during expansion/peaks than during contraction/troughs, as indicated by the standard deviation of returns. During contraction/troughs, fund excess returns were explained by the differential in returns between small and large companies, the difference between the returns on stocks trading at high and low Book-to-Market Value, the market excess return over the risk-free rate, and fund objective. During contraction/troughs, smaller companies offered higher returns than larger companies (ci = 0.26, p = 0.01), undervalued stocks out-performed high growth stocks (h i = 0.39, p <0.0001), and funds with growth objectives out-performed funds with other objectives (oi = 0.01, p = 0.02). The hypothetical SRI portfolio was less risky than the market (bi = 0.74, p <0.0001). During expansion/peaks, fund excess returns were explained by the market excess return over the risk-free rate, and fund objective. Funds with other objectives, such as balanced funds and income funds out-performed funds with growth objectives (oi = −0.01, p = 0.03). The hypothetical SRI portfolio exhibited similar risk as the market (bi = 0.93, p <0.0001). The SRI investor adds a third criterion to the risk and return trade-off of traditional portfolio theory. This constraint is social performance. The research suggests that managers of SRI equity mutual funds may diminish value by using social and ethical criteria to select stocks, but add value by superior stock selection. The result is that the performance of SRI mutual funds is very similar to that of the market. There was no difference in the value added among secular SRI, religious SRI, and vice screens.

A systems approach to describing the process of individual adoption of IT innovations

Research on the adoption of innovations by individuals has been criticized for focusing on various factors that lead to the adoption or rejection of an innovation while ignoring important aspects of the dynamic process that takes place. Theoretical process-based models hypothesize that individuals go through consecutive stages of information gathering and decision making but do not clearly explain the mechanisms that cause an individual to leave one stage and enter the next one. Research on the dynamics of the adoption process have lacked a structurally formal and quantitative description of the process. ^ This dissertation addresses the adoption process of technological innovations from a Systems Theory perspective and assumes that individuals roam through different, not necessarily consecutive, states, determined by the levels of quantifiable state variables. It is proposed that different levels of these state variables determine the state in which potential adopters are. Various events that alter the levels of these variables can cause individuals to migrate into different states. ^ It was believed that Systems Theory could provide the required infrastructure to model the innovation adoption process, particularly applied to information technologies, in a formal, structured fashion. This dissertation assumed that an individual progressing through an adoption process could be considered a system, where the occurrence of different events affect the system's overall behavior and ultimately the adoption outcome. The research effort aimed at identifying the various states of such system and the significant events that could lead the system from one state to another. By mapping these attributes onto an “innovation adoption state space” the adoption process could be fully modeled and used to assess the status, history, and possible outcomes of a specific adoption process. ^ A group of Executive MBA students were observed as they adopted Internet-based technological innovations. The data collected were used to identify clusters in the values of the state variables and consequently define significant system states. Additionally, events were identified across the student sample that systematically moved the system from one state to another. The compilation of identified states and change-related events enabled the definition of an innovation adoption state-space model. ^

Hydrological dynamics between a coastal aquifer and the adjacent estuarine system, Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Geochemical and geophysical approaches have been used to investigate the freshwater and saltwater dynamics in the coastal Biscayne Aquifer and Biscayne Bay. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, and concentrations of Sr2+ and Ca2+ were combined in two geochemical mixing models to provide estimates of the various freshwater inputs (precipitation, canal water, and groundwater) to Biscayne Bay and the coastal canal system in South Florida. Shallow geophysical electromagnetic and direct current resistivity surveys were used to image the geometry and stratification of the saltwater mixing zone in the near coastal (less than 1km inland) Biscayne Aquifer. The combined stable isotope and trace metal models suggest a ratio of canal input-precipitation-groundwater of 38%–52%–10% in the wet season and 37%–58%–5% in the dry season with an error of 25%, where most (20%) of the error was attributed to the isotope regression model, while the remaining 5% error was attributed to the Sr2+/Ca2+ mixing model. These models suggest rainfall is the dominate source of freshwater to Biscayne Bay. For a bay-wide water budget that includes saltwater and freshwater mixing, fresh groundwater accounts for less than 2% of the total input. A similar Sr 2+/Ca2+ tracer model indicates precipitation is the dominate source in 9 out of 10 canals that discharge into Biscayne Bay. The two-component mixing model converged for 100% of the freshwater canal samples in this study with 63% of the water contributed to the canals coming from precipitation and 37% from groundwater inputs ±4%. There was a seasonal shift from 63% precipitation input in the dry season to 55% precipitation input in the wet season. The three end-member mixing model converged for only 60% of the saline canal samples possibly due to non-conservative behavior of Sr2+ and Ca2+ in saline groundwater discharging into the canal system. Electromagnetic and Direct Current resistivity surveys were successful at locating and estimating the geometry and depth of the freshwater/saltwater interface in the Biscayne Aquifer at two near coastal sites. A saltwater interface that deepened as the survey moved inland was detected with a maximum interpreted depth to the interface of 15 meters, approximately 0.33 km inland from the shoreline. ^

A preliminary analysis of the correlation of food-web characteristics with hydrology and nutrient gradients in the southern Everglades

We estimated trophic position and carbon source for three consumers (Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus; eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki; and riverine grass shrimp, Palaemonetes paludosus) from 20 sites representing gradients of productivity and hydrological disturbance in the southern Florida Everglades, U.S.A. We characterized gross primary productivity at each site using light/dark bottle incubation and stem density of emergent vascular plants. We also documented nutrient availability as total phosphorus (TP) in floc and periphyton, and the density of small fishes. Hydrological disturbance was characterized as the time since a site was last dried and the average number of days per year the sites were inundated for the previous 10 years. Food-web attributes were estimated in both the wet and dry seasons by analysis of δ15N (trophic position) and δ13C (food-web carbon source) from 702 samples of aquatic consumers. An index of carbon source was derived from a two-member mixing model with Seminole ramshorn snails (Planorbella duryi) as a basal grazing consumer and scuds (amphipods Hyallela azteca) as a basal detritivore. Snails yielded carbon isotopic values similar to green algae and diatoms, while carbon values of scuds were similar to bulk periphyton and floc; carbon isotopic values of cyanobacteria were enriched in C13compared to all consumers examined. A carbon source similar to scuds dominated at all but one study site, and though the relative contribution of scud-like and snail-like carbon sources was variable, there was no evidence that these contributions were a function of abiotic factors or season. Gar consistently displayed the highest estimated trophic position of the consumers studied, with mosquitofish feeding at a slightly lower level, and grass shrimp feeding at the lowest level. Trophic position was not correlated with any nutrient or productivity parameter, but did increase for grass shrimp and mosquitofish as the time following droughts increased. Trophic position of Florida gar was positively correlated with emergent plant stem density.

Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003–2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country’s own data. Methods Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003–2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). Results According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25–34 years age group. Conclusions The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM.

Essays on intergenerational and regional aspects of water management

This dissertation consists of three essays on different aspects of water management. The first essay focuses on the sustainability of freshwater use by introducing the notion that altruistic parents do bequeath economic assets for their offspring. Constructing a two-period, over-lapping generational model, an optimal ratio of consumption and pollution for old and young generations in each period is determined. Optimal levels of water consumption and pollution change according to different parameters, such as, altruistic degree, natural recharge rate, and population growth. The second essay concerns water sharing between countries in the case of trans-boundary river basins. The paper recognizes that side payments fail to forge water-sharing agreement among the international community and that downstream countries have weak bargaining power. An interconnected game approach is developed by linking the water allocation issue with other non-water issues such as trade or border security problems, creating symmetry between countries in bargaining power. An interconnected game forces two countries to at least partially cooperate under some circumstances. The third essay introduces the concept of virtual water (VW) into a traditional international trade model in order to estimate water savings for a water scarce country. A two country, two products and two factors trade model is developed, which includes not only consumers and producer's surplus, but also environmental externality of water use. The model shows that VW trade saves water and increases global and local welfare. This study should help policy makers to design appropriate subsidy or tax policy to promote water savings especially in water scarce countries.^

Consulting Services to Determine the Effectiveness of Vegetation Classification Using WorldView 2 Satellite Data for the Greater Everglades

The purpose of this project was to evaluate the use of remote sensing 1) to detect and map Everglades wetland plant communities at different scales; and 2) to compare map products delineated and resampled at various scales with the intent to quantify and describe the quantitative and qualitative differences between such products. We evaluated data provided by Digital Globe’s WorldView 2 (WV2) sensor with a spatial resolution of 2m and data from Landsat’s Thematic and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (TM and ETM+) sensors with a spatial resolution of 30m. We were also interested in the comparability and scalability of products derived from these data sources. The adequacy of each data set to map wetland plant communities was evaluated utilizing two metrics: 1) model-based accuracy estimates of the classification procedures; and 2) design-based post-classification accuracy estimates of derived maps.

Essays on Intergenerational and Regional Aspects of Water Management

This dissertation consists of three essays on different aspects of water management. The first essay focuses on the sustainability of freshwater use by introducing the notion that altruistic parents do bequeath economic assets for their offspring. Constructing a two-period, over-lapping generational model, an optimal ratio of consumption and pollution for old and young generations in each period is determined. Optimal levels of water consumption and pollution change according to different parameters, such as, altruistic degree, natural recharge rate, and population growth. The second essay concerns water sharing between countries in the case of trans-boundary river basins. The paper recognizes that side payments fail to forge water-sharing agreement among the international community and that downstream countries have weak bargaining power. An interconnected game approach is developed by linking the water allocation issue with other non-water issues such as trade or border security problems, creating symmetry between countries in bargaining power. An interconnected game forces two countries to at least partially cooperate under some circumstances. The third essay introduces the concept of virtual water (VW) into a traditional international trade model in order to estimate water savings for a water scarce country. A two country, two products and two factors trade model is developed, which includes not only consumers and producer’s surplus, but also environmental externality of water use. The model shows that VW trade saves water and increases global and local welfare. This study should help policy makers to design appropriate subsidy or tax policy to promote water savings especially in water scarce countries.