Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

Estimation of average annual daily traffic (AADT) using geographically weighted regression (GWR) method and geographic information system (GIS)

Annual average daily traffic (AADT) is important information for many transportation planning, design, operation, and maintenance activities, as well as for the allocation of highway funds. Many studies have attempted AADT estimation using factor approach, regression analysis, time series, and artificial neural networks. However, these methods are unable to account for spatially variable influence of independent variables on the dependent variable even though it is well known that to many transportation problems, including AADT estimation, spatial context is important. ^ In this study, applications of geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods to estimating AADT were investigated. The GWR based methods considered the influence of correlations among the variables over space and the spatially non-stationarity of the variables. A GWR model allows different relationships between the dependent and independent variables to exist at different points in space. In other words, model parameters vary from location to location and the locally linear regression parameters at a point are affected more by observations near that point than observations further away. ^ The study area was Broward County, Florida. Broward County lies on the Atlantic coast between Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. In this study, a total of 67 variables were considered as potential AADT predictors, and six variables (lanes, speed, regional accessibility, direct access, density of roadway length, and density of seasonal household) were selected to develop the models. ^ To investigate the predictive powers of various AADT predictors over the space, the statistics including local r-square, local parameter estimates, and local errors were examined and mapped. The local variations in relationships among parameters were investigated, measured, and mapped to assess the usefulness of GWR methods. ^ The results indicated that the GWR models were able to better explain the variation in the data and to predict AADT with smaller errors than the ordinary linear regression models for the same dataset. Additionally, GWR was able to model the spatial non-stationarity in the data, i.e., the spatially varying relationship between AADT and predictors, which cannot be modeled in ordinary linear regression. ^

Capacity-based cost modeling for light rail and bus rapid transit systems

Choosing between Light Rail Transit (LRT) and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems is often controversial and not an easy task for transportation planners who are contemplating the upgrade of their public transportation services. These two transit systems provide comparable services for medium-sized cities from the suburban neighborhood to the Central Business District (CBD) and utilize similar right-of-way (ROW) categories. The research is aimed at developing a method to assist transportation planners and decision makers in determining the most feasible system between LRT and BRT. ^ Cost estimation is a major factor when evaluating a transit system. Typically, LRT is more expensive to build and implement than BRT, but has significantly lower Operating and Maintenance (OM) costs than BRT. This dissertation examines the factors impacting capacity and costs, and develops cost models, which are a capacity-based cost estimate for the LRT and BRT systems. Various ROW categories and alignment configurations of the systems are also considered in the developed cost models. Kikuchi's fleet size model (1985) and cost allocation method are used to develop the cost models to estimate the capacity and costs. ^ The comparison between LRT and BRT are complicated due to many possible transportation planning and operation scenarios. In the end, a user-friendly computer interface integrated with the established capacity-based cost models, the LRT and BRT Cost Estimator (LBCostor), was developed by using Microsoft Visual Basic language to facilitate the process and will guide the users throughout the comparison operations. The cost models and the LBCostor can be used to analyze transit volumes, alignments, ROW configurations, number of stops and stations, headway, size of vehicle, and traffic signal timing at the intersections. The planners can make the necessary changes and adjustments depending on their operating practices. ^

A static traffic assignment model combined with an artificial neural network delay model

As traffic congestion continues to worsen in large urban areas, solutions are urgently sought. However, transportation planning models, which estimate traffic volumes on transportation network links, are often unable to realistically consider travel time delays at intersections. Introducing signal controls in models often result in significant and unstable changes in network attributes, which, in turn, leads to instability of models. Ignoring the effect of delays at intersections makes the model output inaccurate and unable to predict travel time. To represent traffic conditions in a network more accurately, planning models should be capable of arriving at a network solution based on travel costs that are consistent with the intersection delays due to signal controls. This research attempts to achieve this goal by optimizing signal controls and estimating intersection delays accordingly, which are then used in traffic assignment. Simultaneous optimization of traffic routing and signal controls has not been accomplished in real-world applications of traffic assignment. To this end, a delay model dealing with five major types of intersections has been developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs). An ANN architecture consists of interconnecting artificial neurons. The architecture may either be used to gain an understanding of biological neural networks, or for solving artificial intelligence problems without necessarily creating a model of a real biological system. The ANN delay model has been trained using extensive simulations based on TRANSYT-7F signal optimizations. The delay estimates by the ANN delay model have percentage root-mean-squared errors (%RMSE) that are less than 25.6%, which is satisfactory for planning purposes. Larger prediction errors are typically associated with severely oversaturated conditions. A combined system has also been developed that includes the artificial neural network (ANN) delay estimating model and a user-equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment model. The combined system employs the Frank-Wolfe method to achieve a convergent solution. Because the ANN delay model provides no derivatives of the delay function, a Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) method is applied to assist in and expedite the iterative process of the Frank-Wolfe method. The performance of the combined system confirms that the convergence of the solution is achieved, although the global optimum may not be guaranteed.

Application of intervention analysis to evaluate the impacts of special events on freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

A Static Traffic Assignment Model Combined with an Artificial Neural Network Delay Model

As traffic congestion continues to worsen in large urban areas, solutions are urgently sought. However, transportation planning models, which estimate traffic volumes on transportation network links, are often unable to realistically consider travel time delays at intersections. Introducing signal controls in models often result in significant and unstable changes in network attributes, which, in turn, leads to instability of models. Ignoring the effect of delays at intersections makes the model output inaccurate and unable to predict travel time. To represent traffic conditions in a network more accurately, planning models should be capable of arriving at a network solution based on travel costs that are consistent with the intersection delays due to signal controls. This research attempts to achieve this goal by optimizing signal controls and estimating intersection delays accordingly, which are then used in traffic assignment. Simultaneous optimization of traffic routing and signal controls has not been accomplished in real-world applications of traffic assignment. To this end, a delay model dealing with five major types of intersections has been developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs). An ANN architecture consists of interconnecting artificial neurons. The architecture may either be used to gain an understanding of biological neural networks, or for solving artificial intelligence problems without necessarily creating a model of a real biological system. The ANN delay model has been trained using extensive simulations based on TRANSYT-7F signal optimizations. The delay estimates by the ANN delay model have percentage root-mean-squared errors (%RMSE) that are less than 25.6%, which is satisfactory for planning purposes. Larger prediction errors are typically associated with severely oversaturated conditions. A combined system has also been developed that includes the artificial neural network (ANN) delay estimating model and a user-equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment model. The combined system employs the Frank-Wolfe method to achieve a convergent solution. Because the ANN delay model provides no derivatives of the delay function, a Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) method is applied to assist in and expedite the iterative process of the Frank-Wolfe method. The performance of the combined system confirms that the convergence of the solution is achieved, although the global optimum may not be guaranteed.

Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Performance accountability in the federal-state transportation program: Factors affecting successful implementation

Governmental accountability is the requirement of government entities to be accountable to the citizenry in order to justify the raising and expenditure of public resources. The concept of service efforts and accomplishments measurement for government programs was introduced by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) in Service Efforts and Accomplishments Reporting: Its Time Has Come (1990). This research tested the feasibility of implementing the concept for the Federal-aid highway construction program and identified factors affecting implementation with a case study of the District of Columbia. Changes in condition and performance ratings for specific highway segments in 15 projects, before and after construction expenditures, were evaluated using data provided by the Federal Highway Administration. The results of the evaluation indicated difficulty in drawing conclusions on the state program performance, as a whole. The state program reflects problems within the Federally administered program that severely limit implementation of outcome-oriented performance measurement. Major problems identified with data acquisition are: data reliability, availability, compatibility and consistency among states. Other significant factors affecting implementation are institutional barriers and political barriers. Institutional issues in the Federal Highway Administration include the lack of integration of the fiscal project specific database with the Highway Performance Monitoring System database. The Federal Highway Administration has the ability to resolve both of the data problems, however interviews with key Federal informants indicate this will not occur without external directives and changes to the Federal “stewardship” approach to program administration. ^ The findings indicate many issues must be resolved for successful implementation of outcome-oriented performance measures in the Federal-aid construction program. The issues are organizational and political in nature, however in the current environment resolution is possible. Additional research is desirable and would be useful in overcoming the obstacles to successful implementation. ^

Fiscal and organizational determinants of transportation outcomes: A quantitative and qualitative analysis of sustainability factors

Federal transportation legislation in effect since 1991 was examined to determine outcomes in two areas: (1) The effect of organizational and fiscal structures on the implementation of multimodal transportation infrastructure, and (2) The effect of multimodal transportation infrastructure on sustainability. Triangulation of methods was employed through qualitative analysis (including key informant interviews, focus groups and case studies), as well as quantitative analysis (including one-sample t-tests, regression analysis and factor analysis). ^ Four hypotheses were directly tested: (1) Regions with consolidated government structures will build more multimodal transportation miles: The results of the qualitative analysis do not lend support while the results of the quantitative findings support this hypothesis, possibly due to differences in the definitions of agencies/jurisdictions between the two methods. (2) Regions in which more locally dedicated or flexed funding is applied to the transportation system will build a greater number of multimodal transportation miles: Both quantitative and qualitative research clearly support this hypothesis. (3) Cooperation and coordination, or, conversely, competition will determine the number of multimodal transportation miles: Participants tended to agree that cooperation, coordination and leadership are imperative to achieving transportation goals and objectives, including targeted multimodal miles, but also stressed the importance of political and financial elements in determining what ultimately will be funded and implemented. (4) The modal outcomes of transportation systems will affect the overall health of a region in terms of sustainability/quality of life indicators: Both the qualitative and the quantitative analyses provide evidence that they do. ^ This study finds that federal legislation has had an effect on the modal outcomes of transportation infrastructure and that there are links between these modal outcomes and the sustainability of a region. It is recommended that agencies further consider consolidation and strengthen cooperation efforts and that fiscal regulations are modified to reflect the problems cited in qualitative analysis. Limitations of this legislation especially include the inability to measure sustainability; several measures are recommended. ^

Temporal analysis of land use and transportation investments with geographic information system

Land use and transportation interaction has been a research topic for several decades. There have been efforts to identify impacts of transportation on land use from several different perspectives. One focus has been the role of transportation improvements in encouraging new land developments or relocation of activities due to improved accessibility. The impacts studied have included property values and increased development. Another focus has been on the changes in travel behavior due to better mobility and accessibility. Most studies to date have been conducted in metropolitan level, thus unable to account for interactions spatially and temporally at smaller geographic scales. ^ In this study, a framework for studying the temporal interactions between transportation and land use was proposed and applied to three selected corridor areas in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The framework consists of two parts: one is developing of temporal data and the other is applying time series analysis to this temporal data to identify their dynamic interactions. Temporal GIS databases were constructed and used to compile building permit data and transportation improvement projects. Two types of time series analysis approaches were utilized: univariate models and multivariate models. Time series analysis is designed to describe the dynamic consequences of time series by developing models and forecasting the future of the system based on historical trends. Model estimation results from the selected corridors were then compared. ^ It was found that the time series models predicted residential development better than commercial development. It was also found that results from three study corridors varied in terms of the magnitude of impacts, length of lags, significance of the variables, and the model structure. Long-run effect or cumulated impact of transportation improvement on land developments was also measured with time series techniques. The study offered evidence that congestion negatively impacted development and transportation investments encouraged land development. ^

Spatial-temporal mining of archived automatic vehicle location (AVL) data for transit service planning applications

An Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) system is a computer-based vehicle tracking system that is capable of determining a vehicle's location in real time. As a major technology of the Advanced Public Transportation System (APTS), AVL systems have been widely deployed by transit agencies for purposes such as real-time operation monitoring, computer-aided dispatching, and arrival time prediction. AVL systems make a large amount of transit performance data available that are valuable for transit performance management and planning purposes. However, the difficulties of extracting useful information from the huge spatial-temporal database have hindered off-line applications of the AVL data. ^ In this study, a data mining process, including data integration, cluster analysis, and multiple regression, is proposed. The AVL-generated data are first integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. The model-based cluster method is employed to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of transit travel speeds, which may be easily translated into travel time. The transit speed variations along the route segments are identified. Transit service periods such as morning peak, mid-day, afternoon peak, and evening periods are determined based on analyses of transit travel speed variations for different times of day. The seasonal patterns of transit performance are investigated by using the analysis of variance (ANOVA). Travel speed models based on the clustered time-of-day intervals are developed using important factors identified as having significant effects on speed for different time-of-day periods. ^ It has been found that transit performance varied from different seasons and different time-of-day periods. The geographic location of a transit route segment also plays a role in the variation of the transit performance. The results of this research indicate that advanced data mining techniques have good potential in providing automated techniques of assisting transit agencies in service planning, scheduling, and operations control. ^

Development of a medium-capacity guideway transit planning guide

Rapid population increase and booming economic growth have caused a significant escalation in car ownership in many cities, leading to additional or, multiple traffic problems on congested roadways. The increase of automobiles is generating a significant amount of congestion and pollution in many cities. It has become necessary to find a solution to the ever worsening traffic problems in our cities. Building more roadways is nearly impossible due to the limitations of right-of-way in cities. Studies have shown that guideway transit could provide effective transportation and could stimulate land development. The Medium-Capacity Guideway Transit (MCGT) is one of the alternatives to solve this problem. The objective of this research was to better understand the characteristics of MCGT systems, to investigate the existing MCGT systems around the world and determine the main factors behind the planning of successful systems, and to develop a MCGT planning guide. The factors utilized in this study were determined and were analyzed using Excel. A MCGT Planning Guide was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic. ^ A MCGT was defined as a transit system whose capacity can carry up to 20,000 passengers per hour per direction (pphpd). The results shown that Light Rail Transit (LRT) is favored when peak hour demand is less than 13,000 pphpd. Automated People Mover (APM) is favored when the peak hour demand is more than 18,000 pphpd. APM systems could save up to three times the waiting time cost compared to that of the LRT. If comfort and convenience are important, then using an APM does make sense. However, if cost is the critical factor, then LRT will make more sense because it is reasonable service at a reasonable price. If travel time and safety (accident/crush) costs were included in calculating life-cycle “total” costs, the capital cost advantage of LRT disappeared and APM could become very competitive. The results also included a range of cost-performance criteria for MCGT systems that help planners, engineers, and decision-makers to select the most feasible system for their respective areas. ^

Web Based Bicycle Trip Planning for Broward County, Florida

To promote the use of bicycle transportation mode in times of increasing urban traffic congestion, Broward County Metropolitan Planning Organization funded the development of a Web-based trip planner for cyclists. This presentation demonstrates the integration of the ArcGIS Server 9.3 environment with the ArcGIS JavaScript Extension for Google Maps API and the Google Local Search Control for Maps API. This allows the use of Google mashup GIS functionality, i.e., Google local search for selection of trip start, trip destination, and intermediate waypoints, and the integration of Google Maps base layers. The ArcGIS Network Analyst extension is used for the route search, where algorithms for fastest, safest, simplest, most scenic, and shortest routes are imbedded. This presentation also describes how attributes of the underlying network sources have been combined to facilitate the search for optimized routes.

Web Based Bicycle Trip Planning for Broward County, Florida

To promote the use of bicycle transportation mode in times of increasing urban traffic congestion, Broward County Metropolitan Planning Organization funded the development of a Web-based trip planner for cyclists. This presentation demonstrates the integration of the ArcGIS Server 9.3 environment with the ArcGIS JavaScript Extension for Google Maps API and the Google Local Search Control for Maps API. This allows the use of Google mashup GIS functionality, i.e., Google local search for selection of trip start, trip destination, and intermediate waypoints, and the integration of Google Maps base layers. The ArcGIS Network Analyst extension is used for the route search, where algorithms for fastest, safest, simplest, most scenic, and shortest routes are imbedded. This presentation also describes how attributes of the underlying network sources have been combined to facilitate the search for optimized routes.

Transportation Outreach Planner

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) September 2003 Certification Report recommended that the Miami-Dade Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) incorporate 'Sociocultural Effect' features in its planning process to ensure community values and concerns receive proper attention throughout the entire transportation development process. In response, the Miami-Dade MPO created the Community Characteristics Project (CCP) in order to review the social, economic, and geographic characteristics of an area before public involvement (PI) efforts are initiated. In 2010 the Broward and Palm Beach MPOs joined the program, and the CCP was renamed the "Transportation Outreach Planner".