Principal component and second generation wavelet analysis of Treasury yield curve evolution

Prices of U.S. Treasury securities vary over time and across maturities. When the market in Treasurys is sufficiently complete and frictionless, these prices may be modeled by a function time and maturity. A cross-section of this function for time held fixed is called the yield curve; the aggregate of these sections is the evolution of the yield curve. This dissertation studies aspects of this evolution. ^ There are two complementary approaches to the study of yield curve evolution here. The first is principal components analysis; the second is wavelet analysis. In both approaches both the time and maturity variables are discretized. In principal components analysis the vectors of yield curve shifts are viewed as observations of a multivariate normal distribution. The resulting covariance matrix is diagonalized; the resulting eigenvalues and eigenvectors (the principal components) are used to draw inferences about the yield curve evolution. ^ In wavelet analysis, the vectors of shifts are resolved into hierarchies of localized fundamental shifts (wavelets) that leave specified global properties invariant (average change and duration change). The hierarchies relate to the degree of localization with movements restricted to a single maturity at the base and general movements at the apex. Second generation wavelet techniques allow better adaptation of the model to economic observables. Statistically, the wavelet approach is inherently nonparametric while the wavelets themselves are better adapted to describing a complete market. ^ Principal components analysis provides information on the dimension of the yield curve process. While there is no clear demarkation between operative factors and noise, the top six principal components pick up 99% of total interest rate variation 95% of the time. An economically justified basis of this process is hard to find; for example a simple linear model will not suffice for the first principal component and the shape of this component is nonstationary. ^ Wavelet analysis works more directly with yield curve observations than principal components analysis. In fact the complete process from bond data to multiresolution is presented, including the dedicated Perl programs and the details of the portfolio metrics and specially adapted wavelet construction. The result is more robust statistics which provide balance to the more fragile principal components analysis. ^

Electrocardiogram breathing: A study of electrocardiogram derived respiration plus multiresolution wavelet analysis of heartbeat interval variability in sleep study patients

This dissertation presents a unique research opportunity by using recordings which provide electrocardiogram (ECG) plus a reference breathing signal (RBS). ECG derived breathing (EDR) is measured and correlated against RBS. Standard deviations of multiresolution wavelet analysis coefficients (SDMW) are obtained from heart rate and classified using RBS. Prior works by others used select patients for sleep apnea scoring with EDR but no RBS. Another prior work classified select heart disease patients with SDMW but no RBS. This study used randomly chosen sleep disorder patient recordings; central and obstructive apneas, with and without heart disease.^ Implementation required creating an application because existing systems were limited in power and scope. A review survey was created to choose a development environment. The survey is presented as a learning tool and teaching resource. Development objectives were rapid development using limited resources (manpower and money). Open Source resources were used exclusively for implementation. ^ Results show: (1) Three groups of patients exist in the study. Grouping RBS correlations shows a response with either ECG interval or amplitude variation. A third group exists where neither ECG intervals nor amplitude variation correlate with breathing. (2) Previous work done by other groups analyzed SDMW. Similar results were found in this study but some subjects had higher SDMW, attributed to a large number of apneas, arousals and/or disconnects. SDMW does not need RBS to show apneic conditions exist within ECG recordings. (3) Results in this study support the assertion that autonomic nervous system variation was measured with SDMW. Measurements using RBS are not corrupted due to breathing even though respiration overlaps the same frequency band.^ Overall, this work becomes an Open Source resource which can be reused, modified and/or expanded. It might fast track additional research. In the future the system could also be used for public domain data. Prerecorded data exist in similar formats in public databases which could provide additional research opportunities. ^

Evidence of the heterogeneous market hypothesis using wavelet multi -resolution analysis

In finance literature many economic theories and models have been proposed to explain and estimate the relationship between risk and return. Assuming risk averseness and rational behavior on part of the investor, the models are developed which are supposed to help in forming efficient portfolios that either maximize (minimize) the expected rate of return (risk) for a given level of risk (rates of return). One of the most used models to form these efficient portfolios is the Sharpe's Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the development of this model it is assumed that the investors have homogeneous expectations about the future probability distribution of the rates of return. That is, every investor assumes the same values of the parameters of the probability distribution. Likewise financial volatility homogeneity is commonly assumed, where volatility is taken as investment risk which is usually measured by the variance of the rates of return. Typically the square root of the variance is used to define financial volatility, furthermore it is also often assumed that the data generating process is made of independent and identically distributed random variables. This again implies that financial volatility is measured from homogeneous time series with stationary parameters. In this dissertation, we investigate the assumptions of homogeneity of market agents and provide evidence for the case of heterogeneity in market participants' information, objectives, and expectations about the parameters of the probability distribution of prices as given by the differences in the empirical distributions corresponding to different time scales, which in this study are associated with different classes of investors, as well as demonstrate that statistical properties of the underlying data generating processes including the volatility in the rates of return are quite heterogeneous. In other words, we provide empirical evidence against the traditional views about homogeneity using non-parametric wavelet analysis on trading data, The results show heterogeneity of financial volatility at different time scales, and time-scale is one of the most important aspects in which trading behavior differs. In fact we conclude that heterogeneity as posited by the Heterogeneous Markets Hypothesis is the norm and not the exception.

The nature of microvariability in blazar 0716+714

We organized an international campaign to observe the blazar 0716+714 in the optical band. The observations took place from February 24, 2009 to February 26, 2009. The global campaign was carried out by observers from more that sixteen countries and resulted in an extended light curve nearly seventy-eight hours long. The analysis and the modeling of this light curve form the main work of this dissertation project. In the first part of this work, we present the time series and noise analyses of the data. The time series analysis utilizes discrete Fourier transform and wavelet analysis routines to search for periods in the light curve. We then present results of the noise analysis which is based on the idea that each microvariability curve is the realization of the same underlying stochastic noise processes in the blazar jet. ^ Neither reoccuring periods nor random noise can successfully explain the observed optical fluctuations. Hence in the second part, we propose and develop a new model to account for the microvariability we see in blazar 0716+714. We propose that the microvariability is due to the emission from turbulent regions in the jet that are energized by the passage of relativistic shocks. Emission from each turbulent cell forms a pulse of emission, and when convolved with other pulses, yields the observed light curve. We use the model to obtain estimates of the physical parameters of the emission regions in the jet.^

The Nature of Microvariability in Blazar 0716+714

We organized an international campaign to observe the blazar 0716+714 in the optical band. The observations took place from February 24, 2009 to February 26, 2009. The global campaign was carried out by observers from more that sixteen countries and resulted in an extended light curve nearly seventy-eight hours long. The analysis and the modeling of this light curve form the main work of this dissertation project. In the first part of this work, we present the time series and noise analyses of the data. The time series analysis utilizes discrete Fourier transform and wavelet analysis routines to search for periods in the light curve. We then present results of the noise analysis which is based on the idea that each microvariability curve is the realization of the same underlying stochastic noise processes in the blazar jet. Neither reoccuring periods nor random noise can successfully explain the observed optical fluctuations. Hence in the second part, we propose and develop a new model to account for the microvariability we see in blazar 0716+714. We propose that the microvariability is due to the emission from turbulent regions in the jet that are energized by the passage of relativistic shocks. Emission from each turbulent cell forms a pulse of emission, and when convolved with other pulses, yields the observed light curve. We use the model to obtain estimates of the physical parameters of the emission regions in the jet.

A fresh look at decision making in international investment choices: Firm international coherence and home-host country relatedness

Understanding how decisions for international investments are made and how this affects the overall pattern of investments and firm’s performance is of particular importance both in strategy and international business research. This dissertation introduced first home-host country relatedness (HHCR) as the degree to which countries are efficiently combined within the investment portfolios of firms. It theorized and demonstrated that HHCR will vary with the motivation for investments along at least two key dimensions: the nature of foreign investments and the connectedness of potential host countries to the rest of the world. Drawing on cognitive psychology and decision-making research, it developed a theory of strategic decision making proposing that strategic solutions are chosen close to a convenient anchor. Building on research on memory imprinting, it also proposed that managers tend to rely on older knowledge representation. In the context of international investment decisions, managers use their home countries as an anchor and are more likely to choose as a site for foreign investments host countries that are ‘close’ to the home country. These decisions are also likely to rely more strongly on closeness to time invariant country factors of historic and geographic nature rather than time-variant institutions. Empirical tests using comprehensive investments data by all public multinational companies (MNC) worldwide, or over 15,000 MNCs with over half a million subsidiaries, support the claims. Finally, the dissertation introduced the concept of International Coherence (IC) defined as the degree to which an MNE’s network comprises countries that are related. It was hypothesized that maintaining a high level of coherence is important for firm performance and will enhance it. Also, the presence of international coherence mitigates some of the negative effects of unrelated product diversification. Empirical tests using data on foreign investments of over 20,000 public firms, while also developing a home-host country relatedness index for up to 24,300 home-host pairs, provided support for the theory advanced.

A novel method for rapid and selective extraction of male DNA from rape kits using alkaline lysis and pressure cycling technology (PCT)

There is an increasing demand for DNA analysis because of the sensitivity of the method and the ability to uniquely identify and distinguish individuals with a high degree of certainty. But this demand has led to huge backlogs in evidence lockers since the current DNA extraction protocols require long processing time. The DNA analysis procedure becomes more complicated when analyzing sexual assault casework samples where the evidence contains more than one contributor. Additional processing to separate different cell types in order to simplify the final data interpretation further contributes to the existing cumbersome protocols. The goal of the present project is to develop a rapid and efficient extraction method that permits selective digestion of mixtures. ^ Selective recovery of male DNA was achieved with as little as 15 minutes lysis time upon exposure to high pressure under alkaline conditions. Pressure cycling technology (PCT) is carried out in a barocycler that has a small footprint and is semi-automated. Typically less than 10% male DNA is recovered using the standard extraction protocol for rape kits, almost seven times more male DNA was recovered from swabs using this novel method. Various parameters including instrument setting and buffer composition were optimized to achieve selective recovery of sperm DNA. Some developmental validation studies were also done to determine the efficiency of this method in processing samples exposed to various conditions that can affect the quality of the extraction and the final DNA profile. ^ Easy to use interface, minimal manual interference and the ability to achieve high yields with simple reagents in a relatively short time make this an ideal method for potential application in analyzing sexual assault samples.^

A Case-Only Genome-wide Association Study of Gender- and Age-specific Risk Markers for Childhood Leukemia

Males and age group 1 to 5 years show a much higher risk for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We performed a case-only genome-wide association study (GWAS), using the Illumina Infinium HumanCoreExome Chip, to unmask gender- and age-specific risk variants in 240 non-Hispanic white children with ALL recruited at Texas Children’s Cancer Center, Houston, Texas. Besides statistically most significant results, we also considered results that yielded the highest effect sizes. Existing experimental data and bioinformatic predictions were used to complement results, and to examine the biological significance of statistical results. Our study identified novel risk variants for childhood ALL. The SNP, rs4813720 (RASSF2), showed the statistically most significant gender-specific associations (P < 2 x 10-6). Likewise, rs10505918 (SOX5) yielded the lowest P value (P < 1 x 10-5) for age-specific associations, and also showed the statistically most significant association with age-at-onset (P < 1 x 10-4). Two SNPs, rs12722042 and 12722039, from the HLA-DQA1 region yielded the highest effect sizes (odds ratio (OR) = 15.7; P = 0.002) for gender-specific results, and the SNP, rs17109582 (OR = 12.5; P = 0.006), showed the highest effect size for age-specific results. Sex chromosome variants did not appear to be involved in gender-specific associations. The HLA-DQA1 SNPs belong to DQA1*01:07and confirmed previously reported male-specific association with DQA1*01:07. Twenty one of the SNPs identified as risk markers for gender- or age-specific associations were located in the transcription factor binding sites and 56 SNPs were non-synonymous variants, likely to alter protein function. Although bioinformatic analysis did not implicate a particular mechanism for gender- and age-specific associations, RASSF2 has an estrogen receptor-alpha binding site in its promoter. The unknown mechanisms may be due to lack of interest in gender- and age-specificity in associations. These results provide a foundation for further studies to examine the gender- and age-differential in childhood ALL risk. Following replication and mechanistic studies, risk factors for one gender or age group may have a potential to be used as biomarkers for targeted intervention for prevention and maybe also for treatment.

A Novel Method for Rapid and Selective Extraction of Male DNA from Rape Kits using Alkaline Lysis and Pressure Cycling Technology (PCT)

There is an increasing demand for DNA analysis because of the sensitivity of the method and the ability to uniquely identify and distinguish individuals with a high degree of certainty. But this demand has led to huge backlogs in evidence lockers since the current DNA extraction protocols require long processing time. The DNA analysis procedure becomes more complicated when analyzing sexual assault casework samples where the evidence contains more than one contributor. Additional processing to separate different cell types in order to simplify the final data interpretation further contributes to the existing cumbersome protocols. The goal of the present project is to develop a rapid and efficient extraction method that permits selective digestion of mixtures. Selective recovery of male DNA was achieved with as little as 15 minutes lysis time upon exposure to high pressure under alkaline conditions. Pressure cycling technology (PCT) is carried out in a barocycler that has a small footprint and is semi-automated. Typically less than 10% male DNA is recovered using the standard extraction protocol for rape kits, almost seven times more male DNA was recovered from swabs using this novel method. Various parameters including instrument setting and buffer composition were optimized to achieve selective recovery of sperm DNA. Some developmental validation studies were also done to determine the efficiency of this method in processing samples exposed to various conditions that can affect the quality of the extraction and the final DNA profile. Easy to use interface, minimal manual interference and the ability to achieve high yields with simple reagents in a relatively short time make this an ideal method for potential application in analyzing sexual assault samples.