Population viability analyses of Chamaecrista keyensis (Leguminosae: Caesalpinioideae), a narrowly endemic herb of the lower Florida Keys: Effects of seasonal timing of fires and the urban -wildland interface

This research first evaluated the effects of urban wildland interface on reproductive biology of the Big Pine Partridge Pea, Chamaecrista keyensis, an understory herb that is endemic to Big Pine Key, Florida. I found that C. keyensis was self-compatible, but depended on bees for seed set. Furthermore, individuals of C. keyensis in urban habitats suffered higher seed predation and therefore set fewer seeds than forest interior plants. ^ I then focused on the effects of fire at different times of the year, summer (wet) and winter (dry), on the population dynamics and population viability of C. keyensis. I found that C. keyensis population recovered faster after winter burns and early summer burns (May–June) than after late summer burns (July–September) due to better survival and seedling recruitment following former fires. Fire intensity had positive effects on reproduction of C. keyensis. In contrast, no significant fire intensity effects were found on survival, growth, and seedling recruitment. This indicated that better survival and seedling recruitment following winter and early summer burns (compared with late summer burns) were due to the reproductive phenology of the plant in relation to fires rather than differences in fire intensity. Deterministic population modeling showed that time since fire significantly affected the finite population growth rates (λ). Particularly, recently burned plots had the largest λ. In addition, effects of timing of fires on λ were most pronounced the year of burn, but not the subsequent years. The elasticity analyses suggested that maximizing survival is an effective way to minimize the reduction in finite population growth rate the year of burn. Early summer fires or dry-season fires may achieve this objective. Finally, stochastic simulations indicated that the C. keyensis population had lower extinction risk and population decline probability if burned in the winter than in the late summer. A fire frequency of approximately 7 years would create the lowest extinction probability for C. keyensis. A fire management regime including a wide range of burning seasons may be essential for the continued existence of C. keyensis and other endemic species of pine rockland on Big Pine Key. ^

Dissolved Black Carbon in Grassland Streams: Is There an Effect of Recent Fire History?

While the existence of black carbon as part of dissolved organic matter (DOM) has been confirmed, quantitative determinations of dissolved black carbon (DBC) in freshwater ecosystem and information on factors controlling its concentration are scarce. In this study, stream surface water samples from a series of watersheds subject to different burn frequencies in Konza Prairie (Kansas, USA) were collected in order to determine if recent fire history has a noticeable effect on DBC concentration. The DBC levels detected ranged from 0.04 to 0.11 mg L−1, accounting for ca. 3.32 ± 0.51% of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). No correlation was found between DBC concentration and neither fire frequency nor time since last burn. We suggest that limited DBC flux is related to high burning efficiency, possibly greater export during periods of high discharge and/or the continuous export of DBC over long time scales. A linear correlation between DOC and DBC concentrations was observed, suggesting the export mechanisms determining DOC and DBC concentrations are likely coupled. The potential influence of fire history was less than the influence of other factors controlling the DOC and DBC dynamics in this ecosystem. Assuming similar conditions and processes apply in grasslands elsewhere, extrapolation to a global scale would suggest a global grasslands flux of DBC on the order of 0.14 Mt carbon year−1.

Tree Island Response to Fire and Flooding in the Short-Hydroperiod Marl Prairie Grasslands of the Florida Everglades

Within the marl prairie grasslands of the Florida Everglades, USA, the combined effects of fire and flooding usually lead to very significant changes in tree island structure and composition. Depending on fire severity and post-fire hydroperiod, these effects vary spatially and temporally throughout the landscape, creating a patchy post-fire mosaic of tree islands with different successional states. Through the use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and three predictor variables (marsh water table elevation at the time of fire, post-fire hydroperiod, and tree island size), along with logistic regression analysis, we examined the probability of tree island burning and recovering following the Mustang Corner Fire (May to June 2008) in Everglades National Park. Our data show that hydrologic conditions during and after fire, which are under varying degrees of management control, can lead to tree island contraction or loss. More specifically, the elevation of the marsh water table at the time of the fire appears to be the most important parameter determining the severity of fire in marl prairie tree islands. Furthermore, in the post-fire recovery phase, both tree island size and hydroperiod during the first year after the fire played important roles in determining the probability of tree island recovery, contraction, or loss.

Improved estimation of postmortem interval with Cardiac Troponin T and improved analytical methods

Accurate knowledge of the time since death, or postmortem interval (PMI), has enormous legal, criminological, and psychological impact. In this study, an investigation was made to determine whether the relationship between the degradation of the human cardiac structure protein Cardiac Troponin T and PMI could be used as an indicator of time since death, thus providing a rapid, high resolution, sensitive, and automated methodology for the determination of PMI. ^ The use of Cardiac Troponin T (cTnT), a protein found in heart tissue, as a selective marker for cardiac muscle damage has shown great promise in the determination of PMI. An optimized conventional immunoassay method was developed to quantify intact and fragmented cTnT. A small sample of cardiac tissue, which is less affected than other tissues by external factors, was taken, homogenized, extracted with magnetic microparticles, separated by SDS-PAGE, and visualized with Western blot by probing with monoclonal antibody against cTnT. This step was followed by labeling and available scanners. This conventional immunoassay provides a proper detection and quantitation of cTnT protein in cardiac tissue as a complex matrix; however, this method does not provide the analyst with immediate results. Therefore, a competitive separation method using capillary electrophoresis with laser-induced fluorescence (CE-LIF) was developed to study the interaction between human cTnT protein and monoclonal anti-TroponinT antibody. ^ Analysis of the results revealed a linear relationship between the percent of degraded cTnT and the log of the PMI, indicating that intact cTnT could be detected in human heart tissue up to 10 days postmortem at room temperature and beyond two weeks at 4C. The data presented demonstrates that this technique can provide an extended time range during which PMI can be more accurately estimated as compared to currently used methods. The data demonstrates that this technique represents a major advance in time of death determination through a fast and reliable, semi-quantitative measurement of a biochemical marker from an organ protected from outside factors. ^

A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.

Understanding China's climate change mitigation policy development: Structures, processes and outcomes

Climate change is one of the most important and urgent issues of our time. Since 2006, China has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. China’s role in an international climate change solution has gained increased attention. Although much literature has addressed the functioning, performance, and implications of existing climate change mitigation policies and actions in China, there is insufficient literature that illuminates how the national climate change mitigation policies have been formulated and shaped. This research utilizes the policy network approach to explore China’s climate change mitigation policy making by examining how a variety of government, business, and civil society actors have formed networks to address environmental contexts and influence the policy outcomes and changes. The study is qualitative in nature. Three cases are selected to illustrate structural and interactive features of the specific policy network settings in shaping different policy arrangements and influencing the outcomes in the Chinese context. The three cases include the regulatory evolution of China’s climate change policy making; the country’s involvement in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activity, and China’s exploration of voluntary agreement through adopting the Top-1000 Industrial Energy Conservation Program. The historical analysis of the policy process uses both primary data from interviews and fieldwork, and secondary data from relevant literature. The study finds that the Chinese central government dominates domestic climate change policy making; however, expanded action networks that involve actors at all levels have emerged in correspondence to diverse climate mitigation policy arrangements. The improved openness and accessibility of climate change policy network have contributed to its proactive engagement in promoting mitigation outcomes. In conclusion, the research suggests that the policy network approach provides a useful tool for studying China’s climate change policy making process. The involvement of various types of state and non-state actors has shaped new relations and affected the policy outcomes and changes. In addition, through the cross-case analysis, the study challenges the “fragmented authoritarianism” model and argues that this once-influential model is not appropriate in explaining new development and changes of policy making processes in contemporary China.

Spatial and seasonal variability in elemental content, δ13C, and δ15N ofThalassia testudinum from South Florida and its implications for ecosystem studies

Elemental and isotopic composition of leaves of the seagrassThalassia testudinum was highly variable across the 10,000 km2 and 8 years of this study. The data reported herein expand the reported range in carbon:nitrogen (C:N) and carbon:phosphorus (C:P) ratios and δ13C and δ15N values reported for this species worldwide; 13.2–38.6 for C:N and 411–2,041 for C:P. The 981 determinations in this study generated a range of −13.5‰ to −5.2‰ for δ13C and −4.3‰ to 9.4‰ for δ15N. The elemental and isotope ratios displayed marked seasonality, and the seasonal patterns could be described with a simple sine wave model. C:N, C:P, δ13C, and δ15N values all had maxima in the summer and minima in the winter. Spatial patterns in the summer maxima of these quantities suggest there are large differences in the relative availability of N and P across the study area and that there are differences in the processing and the isotopic composition of C and N. This work calls into question the interpretation of studies about nutrient cycling and food webs in estuaries based on few samples collected at one time, since we document natural variability greater than the signal often used to imply changes in the structure or function of ecosystems. The data and patterns presented in this paper make it clear that there is no threshold δ15N value for marine plants that can be used as an unambiguous indicator of human sewage pollution without a thorough understanding of local temporal and spatial variability.

Temporal Population Genetic Structure of Eastern Mosquitofish in a Dynamic Aquatic Landscape

We analyzed the effect of periodic drying in the Florida Everglades on spatiotemporal population genetic structure of eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). Severe periodic drying events force individuals from disparate sources to mix in dry season relatively deep-water refuges. In 1996 (a wet year) and 1999 (a dry year), we sampled mosquitofish at 20 dry-season refuges distributed in 3 water management regions and characterized genetic variation for 10 allozyme and 3 microsatellite loci. In 1996, most of the ecosystem did not dry, whereas in 1999, many of our sampling locations were isolated by expanses of dried marsh surface. In 1996, most spatial genetic variation was attributed to heterogeneity within regions. In 1999, spatial genetic variation within regions was not significant. In both years, a small but significant amount of variation (less than 1% of the total variation) was partitioned among regions. Variance was consistently greater than zero among long-hydroperiod sites within a region, but not among short-hydroperiod sites within a region, where hydroperiod was measured as time since last marsh surface dry-down forcing fishes into local refuges. In 1996, all sites were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. In 1999, we observed fewer heterozygotes than expected for most loci and sites suggesting a Wahlund effect arising from fish leaving areas that dried and mixing in deep-water refuges.

Disturbance and recovery following catastrophic grazing: studies of a successional chronosequence in a seagrass bed

In August 1997, a large aggregation of the common sea urchin, Lytechinus variegatus, was discovered moving southward through a lush and productive seagrass monoculture of Syringodium filiforme in the Florida Keys, FL. Sea urchin densities at the grazing front were greater than 300 individuals m−2 which resulted in the overgrazing of seagrasses and a complete denuding of all vegetation from this area. The steady rate of the grazing front migration permitted the estimation of the time since disturbance for any point behind this grazing front allowing the use of a chronosequence approach to investigate the processes early on in succession of these communities. In May 1999, six north-south parallel transects were established across the disturbed seagrass communities and into the undisturbed areas south of the grazing front. Based on the measured rates of the migration of the grazing front, we grouped 60 sites into five categories (disturbed, recently grazed, active grazing front, stressed and undisturbed). The large scale loss of seagrass biomass initiated community-wide cascading effects that significantly altered resource regimes and species diversity. The loss of the seagrass canopy and subsequent death and decay of the below-ground biomass resulted in a de-stabilization of the sediments. As the sediments were eroded into the water column, turbidity significantly increased, reducing light availability and significantly reducing the sediment nitrogen pool and depleting the seed bank. The portion of the chronosequence that has had the longest period of recovery now consists of a mixed community of seagrass and macroalgae, as remnant survivors and quick colonizers coexist and jointly take advantage of the open space.

American Alligator Digestion Rate of Blue Crabs and Its Implications for Stomach Contents Analysis

Stomach contents analysis (SCA) provides a snap-shot observation of a consumer's diet. Interpretation of SCA data can be complicated by many factors, including variation in gastric residence times and digestion rates among prey taxa. Although some SCA methods are reported to efficiently remove all stomach contents, the effectiveness of these techniques has rarely been tested for large irregular shaped prey with hard exoskeletons. We used a controlled feeding trial to estimate gastric residency time and decomposition rate of a large crustacean prey item, the Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus), which is consumed by American Alligators (Alligator mississippiensis), an abundant apex predator in coastal habitats of the southeastern United States. The decomposition rate of C. sapidus in the stomachs of A. mississippiensis followed a predictable pattern, and some crab pieces remained in stomachs for at least 14 days. We also found that certain portions of C. sapidus were prone to becoming caught within the stomach or esophagus, meaning not all crab parts are consistently recovered using gastric lavage techniques. However, because the state of decomposition of crabs was predictable, it is possible to estimate time since consumption for crabs recovered from wild alligators. This information, coupled with a detailed understanding of crab distributions and alligator movement tactics could help elucidate patterns of cross-ecosystem foraging by the American Alligator in coastal habitats.

Biotic and abiotic determinants of intermediate-consumer trophic diversity in the Florida everglades

Food-web structure can shape population dynamics and ecosystem functioning and stability. We investigated the structure of a food-web fragment consisting of dominant intermediate consumers (fishes and crayfishes) in the Florida Everglades, using stable isotope analysis to quantify trophic diversity along gradients of primary production (periphyton), disturbance (marsh drying) and intermediate-consumer density (a possible indicator of competition). We predicted that trophic diversity would increase with resource availability and decrease after disturbance, and that competition could result in greater trophic diversity by favouring resource partitioning. Total trophic diversity, measured by niche area, decreased with periphyton biomass and an ordination axis representing several bluegreen algae species. Consumers’ basal resource diversity, estimated by δ13C values, was similarly related to algal community structure. The range of trophic levels (δ15N range) increased with time since the most recent drying and reflooding event, but decreased with intermediate-consumer density, and was positively related to the ordination axis reflecting increases in green algae and decreases in filamentous bluegreen algae. Our findings suggest that algal quality, independent of quantity, influences food-web structure and demonstrate an indirect role of nutrient enrichment mediated by its effects on periphyton palatability and biomass. These results reveal potential mechanisms for anthropogenic effects on Everglades communities.

Disturbance frequency and community structure in a twenty-five year intervention study

Models of community regulation commonly incorporate gradients of disturbance inversely related to the role of biotic interactions in regulating intermediate trophic levels. Higher trophic-level organisms are predicted to be more strongly limited by intermediate levels of disturbance than are the organisms they consume. We used a manipulation of the frequency of hydrological disturbance in an intervention analysis to examine its effects on small-fish communities in the Everglades, USA. From 1978 to 2002, we monitored fishes at one long-hydroperiod (average 350 days) and at one short-hydroperiod (average 259 days; monitoring started here in 1985) site. At a third site, managers intervened in 1985 to diminish the frequency and duration of marsh drying. By the late 1990s, the successional dynamics of density and relative abundance at the intervention site converged on those of the long-hydroperiod site. Community change was manifested over 3 to 5 years following a dry-down if a site remained inundated; the number of days since the most recent drying event and length of the preceding dry period were useful for predicting population dynamics. Community dissimilarity was positively correlated with the time since last dry. Community dynamics resulted from change in the relative abundance of three groups of species linked by life-history responses to drought. Drought frequency and intensity covaried in response to hydrological manipulation at the landscape scale; community-level successional dynamics converged on a relatively small range of species compositions when drought return-time extended beyond 4 years. The density of small fishes increased with diminution of drought frequency, consistent with disturbance-limited community structure; less-frequent drying than experienced in this study (i.e., longer return times) yields predator-dominated regulation of small-fish communities in some parts of the Everglades.

A preliminary analysis of the correlation of food-web characteristics with hydrology and nutrient gradients in the southern Everglades

We estimated trophic position and carbon source for three consumers (Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus; eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki; and riverine grass shrimp, Palaemonetes paludosus) from 20 sites representing gradients of productivity and hydrological disturbance in the southern Florida Everglades, U.S.A. We characterized gross primary productivity at each site using light/dark bottle incubation and stem density of emergent vascular plants. We also documented nutrient availability as total phosphorus (TP) in floc and periphyton, and the density of small fishes. Hydrological disturbance was characterized as the time since a site was last dried and the average number of days per year the sites were inundated for the previous 10 years. Food-web attributes were estimated in both the wet and dry seasons by analysis of δ15N (trophic position) and δ13C (food-web carbon source) from 702 samples of aquatic consumers. An index of carbon source was derived from a two-member mixing model with Seminole ramshorn snails (Planorbella duryi) as a basal grazing consumer and scuds (amphipods Hyallela azteca) as a basal detritivore. Snails yielded carbon isotopic values similar to green algae and diatoms, while carbon values of scuds were similar to bulk periphyton and floc; carbon isotopic values of cyanobacteria were enriched in C13compared to all consumers examined. A carbon source similar to scuds dominated at all but one study site, and though the relative contribution of scud-like and snail-like carbon sources was variable, there was no evidence that these contributions were a function of abiotic factors or season. Gar consistently displayed the highest estimated trophic position of the consumers studied, with mosquitofish feeding at a slightly lower level, and grass shrimp feeding at the lowest level. Trophic position was not correlated with any nutrient or productivity parameter, but did increase for grass shrimp and mosquitofish as the time following droughts increased. Trophic position of Florida gar was positively correlated with emergent plant stem density.

Race Relations & Politics in Venezuela during Punto Fijo (1958 – 1998)

In 1998, Hugo Chávez Frías’ presidential candidacy brought race to national discussion in Venezuela for first time since 1945. For long, the country’s politics had abided by the myth of racial harmony and racial democracy. This approach pointed to institutional separation in the United States and Africa as examples of true racism. Latin America was largely void of such atrocities. Nonetheless, Chávez claimed the present political parties (Acción Democrática, Copei and Unión Republicana Democrática) disenfranchised the common, colored Venezuelan. He continued to assert the opposition’s racism during his presidency. And his political fanbase agrees. A variety of scholars have studied the break from Punto Fijo politics to the Bolivarian Revolution. Yet, few have linked the obvious class struggle to race. Here, I seek to explain how racial identity has shaped class identity in Venezuela by closely examining the Punto Fijo era (1958-1998). The essay begins with an overview of historical race relations, moving to the period in focus. Then, I examine systematic and institutional exclusion under Punto Fijo politics. The object is to understand the merit of Chávez’s racial claims since 1998. Hence, the study also sees democracy in action and the consequences of racial exclusion. The study will be accomplished through secondary research, considering the limitations brought by working abroad. In the end, this study serves as first step in analyzing the fall of what was once considered Latin America’s most durable democracy.

Race Relations & Politics in Venezuela during Punto Fijo (1958 – 1998)

In 1998, Hugo Chávez Frías’ presidential candidacy brought race to national discussion in Venezuela for first time since 1945. For long, the country’s politics had abided by the myth of racial harmony and racial democracy. This approach pointed to institutional separation in the United States and Africa as examples of true racism. Latin America was largely void of such atrocities. Nonetheless, Chávez claimed the present political parties (Acción Democrática, Copei and Unión Republicana Democrática) disenfranchised the common, colored Venezuelan. He continued to assert the opposition’s racism during his presidency. And his political fanbase agrees. A variety of scholars have studied the break from Punto Fijo politics to the Bolivarian Revolution. Yet, few have linked the obvious class struggle to race. Here, I seek to explain how racial identity has shaped class identity in Venezuela by closely examining the Punto Fijo era (1958-1998). The essay begins with an overview of historical race relations, moving to the period in focus. Then, I examine systematic and institutional exclusion under Punto Fijo politics. The object is to understand the merit of Chávez’s racial claims since 1998. Hence, the study also sees democracy in action and the consequences of racial exclusion. The study will be accomplished through secondary research, considering the limitations brought by working abroad. In the end, this study serves as first step in analyzing the fall of what was once considered Latin America’s most durable democracy.