Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment: A prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. ^ The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. ^ Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. ^ The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior. ^

The development of an optimized system of narcotic and explosive contraband mimics for calibration and training of biological detectors

Current commercially available mimics contain varying amounts of either the actual explosive/drug or the chemical compound of suspected interest by biological detectors. As a result, there is significant interest in determining the dominant chemical odor signatures of the mimics, often referred to as pseudos, particularly when compared to the genuine contraband material. This dissertation discusses results obtained from the analysis of drug and explosive headspace related to the odor profiles as recognized by trained detection canines. Analysis was performed through the use of headspace solid phase microextraction in conjunction with gas chromatography mass spectrometry (HS-SPME-GC-MS). Upon determination of specific odors, field trials were held using a combination of the target odors with COMPS. Piperonal was shown to be a dominant odor compound in the headspace of some ecstasy samples and a recognizable odor mimic by trained detection canines. It was also shown that detection canines could be imprinted on piperonal COMPS and correctly identify ecstasy samples at a threshold level of approximately 100ng/s. Isosafrole and/or MDP-2-POH show potential as training aid mimics for non-piperonal based MDMA. Acetic acid was shown to be dominant in the headspace of heroin samples and verified as a dominant odor in commercial vinegar samples; however, no common, secondary compound was detected in the headspace of either. Because of the similarities detected within respective explosive classes, several compounds were chosen for explosive mimics. A single based smokeless powder with a detectable level of 2,4-dinitrotoluene, a double based smokeless powder with a detectable level of nitroglycerine, 2-ethyl-1-hexanol, DMNB, ethyl centralite and diphenylamine were shown to be accurate mimics for TNT-based explosives, NG-based explosives, plastic explosives, tagged explosives, and smokeless powders, respectively. The combination of these six odors represents a comprehensive explosive odor kit with positive results for imprint on detection canines. As a proof of concept, the chemical compound PFTBA showed promise as a possible universal, non-target odor compound for comparison and calibration of detection canines and instrumentation. In a comparison study of shape versus vibration odor theory, the detection of d-methyl benzoate and methyl benzoate was explored using canine detectors. While results did not overwhelmingly substantiate either theory, shape odor theory provides a better explanation of the canine and human subject responses.

The relationship of immigrant status to perceptions of reading and reading literacy among young Black students: A test of the Cultural -Ecological Theory of School Performance

This study tests Ogbu and Simons' Cultural-Ecological Theory of School Performance using data from the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study of 2001 (PIRLS), a large-scale international survey and reading assessment involving fourth grade students from 35 countries, including the United States. This theory argues that Black immigrant students outperform their non-immigrant counterparts, academically, and that achievement differences are attributed to stronger educational commitment in Black immigrant families. Four hypotheses are formulated to test this theory: Black immigrant students have (a) more receptive attitudes toward reading; (b) a more positive reading self-concept; and (c) a higher level of reading literacy. Furthermore, (d) the relationship of immigrant status to reading perceptions and literacy persists after including selected predictors. These hypotheses are tested separately for girls and boys, while also examining immigrant students' generational status (i.e., foreign-born or second-generation). ^ PIRLS data from a subset of Black students (N=525) in the larger U.S. sample of 3,763 are analyzed to test the hypotheses, using analysis of variance, correlation and multiple regression techniques. Findings reveal that hypotheses a and b are not confirmed (contradicting the Cultural-Ecological Theory) and c and d are partially supported (lending partial support to the theory). Specifically, immigrant and non-immigrant students did not differ in attitudes toward reading or reading self-concept; second-generation immigrant boys outperformed both non-immigrant and foreign-born immigrant boys in reading literacy, but no differences were found among girls; and, while being second-generation immigrant had a relatively stronger relationship to reading literacy for boys, among girls, selected socio-cultural predictors, number of books in the home and length of U.S. residence, had relatively stronger relationship to reading self-concept than did immigrant status. This study, therefore, indicates that future research employing the Cultural-Ecological Theory should: (a) take gender and generational status into account (b) identify additional socio-cultural predictors of Black children's academic perceptions and performance; and (c) continue to build on this body of evidence-based knowledge to better inform educational policy and school personnel in addressing needs of all children. ^

Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

The Development of an Optimized System of Narcotic and Explosive Contraband Mimics for Calibration and Training of Biological Detectors

Current commercially available mimics contain varying amounts of either the actual explosive/drug or the chemical compound of suspected interest by biological detectors. As a result, there is significant interest in determining the dominant chemical odor signatures of the mimics, often referred to as pseudos, particularly when compared to the genuine contraband material. This dissertation discusses results obtained from the analysis of drug and explosive headspace related to the odor profiles as recognized by trained detection canines. Analysis was performed through the use of headspace solid phase microextraction in conjunction with gas chromatography mass spectrometry (HS-SPME-GC-MS). Upon determination of specific odors, field trials were held using a combination of the target odors with COMPS. Piperonal was shown to be a dominant odor compound in the headspace of some ecstasy samples and a recognizable odor mimic by trained detection canines. It was also shown that detection canines could be imprinted on piperonal COMPS and correctly identify ecstasy samples at a threshold level of approximately 100ng/s. Isosafrole and/or MDP-2-POH show potential as training aid mimics for non-piperonal based MDMA. Acetic acid was shown to be dominant in the headspace of heroin samples and verified as a dominant odor in commercial vinegar samples; however, no common, secondary compound was detected in the headspace of either. Because of the similarities detected within respective explosive classes, several compounds were chosen for explosive mimics. A single based smokeless powder with a detectable level of 2,4-dinitrotoluene, a double based smokeless powder with a detectable level of nitroglycerine, 2-ethyl-1-hexanol, DMNB, ethyl centralite and diphenylamine were shown to be accurate mimics for TNT-based explosives, NG-based explosives, plastic explosives, tagged explosives, and smokeless powders, respectively. The combination of these six odors represents a comprehensive explosive odor kit with positive results for imprint on detection canines. As a proof of concept, the chemical compound PFTBA showed promise as a possible universal, non-target odor compound for comparison and calibration of detection canines and instrumentation. In a comparison study of shape versus vibration odor theory, the detection of d-methyl benzoate and methyl benzoate was explored using canine detectors. While results did not overwhelmingly substantiate either theory, shape odor theory provides a better explanation of the canine and human subject responses.