Regional growth, structural change, and natural disaster

Hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and other serious natural hazards have been attributed with causing changes in regional economic growth, income, employment, and wealth. Natural disasters are said to cause; (1) an acceleration of existing economic trends; (2) an expansion of employment and income, due to recovery operations (the so-called silver lining); and (3) an alteration in the structure of regional economic activity due to changes in "intra" and "inter" regional trading patterns, and technological change.^ Theoretical and stylized disaster simulations (Cochrane 1975; Haas, Cochrane, and Kates 1977; Petak et al. 1982; Ellson et al. 1983, 1984; Boisvert 1992; Brookshire and McKee 1992) point towards a wide scope of possible negative and long lasting impacts upon economic activity and structure. This work examines the consequences of Hurricane Andrew on Dade County's economy. Following the work of Ellson et al. (1984), Guimaraes et al. (1993), and West and Lenze (1993; 1994), a regional econometric forecasting model (DCEFM) using a framework of "with" and "without" the hurricane is constructed and utilized to assess Hurricane Andrew's impact on the structure and level of economic activity in Dade County, Florida.^ The results of the simulation exercises show that the direct economic impact associated with Hurricane Andrew on Dade County is of short duration, and of isolated sectoral impact, with impact generally limited to construction, TCP (transportation, communications, and public utilities), and agricultural sectors. Regional growth, and changes in income and employment reacted directly to, and within the range and direction set by national economic activity. The simulations also lead to the conclusion that areal extent, infrastructure, and sector specific damages or impacts, as opposed to monetary losses, are the primary determinants of a disaster's effects upon employment, income, growth, and economic structure. ^

An assessment of natural and human disturbance effects on Mexican ecosystems: current trends and research gaps

Mexico harbors more than 10% of the planet’s endemic species. However, the integrity and biodiversity of many ecosystems is experiencing rapid transformation under the influence of a wide array of human and natural disturbances. In order to disentangle the effects of human and natural disturbance regimes at different spatial and temporal scales, we selected six terrestrial (temperate montane forests, montane cloud forests, tropical rain forests, tropical semi-deciduous forests, tropical dry forests, and deserts) and four aquatic (coral reefs, mangrove forests, kelp forests and saline lakes) ecosystems. We used semiquantitative statistical methods to assess (1) the most important agents of disturbance affecting the ecosystems, (2) the vulnerability of each ecosystem to anthropogenic and natural disturbance, and (3) the differences in ecosystem disturbance regimes and their resilience. Our analysis indicates a significant variation in ecological responses, recovery capacity, and resilience among ecosystems. The constant and widespread presence of human impacts on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is reflected either in reduced area coverage for most systems, or reduced productivity and biodiversity, particularly in the case of fragile ecosystems (e.g., rain forests, coral reefs). In all cases, the interaction between historical human impacts and episodic high intensity natural disturbance (e.g., hurricanes, fires) has triggered a reduction in species diversity and induced significant changes in habitat distribution or species dominance. The lack of monitoring programs assessing before/after effects of major disturbances in Mexico is one of the major limitations to quantifying the commonalities and differences of disturbance effects on ecosystem properties.

Natural Disasters and Comparative State-Formation and Nation-Building: Earthquakes in Argentina and Chile (1822-1939)

Natural disasters in Argentina and Chile played a significant role in the state-formation and nation-building process (1822-1939). This dissertation explores state and society responses to earthquakes by studying public and private relief efforts reconstruction plans, crime and disorder, religious interpretations of catastrophes, national and transnational cultures of disaster, science and technology, and popular politics. Although Argentina and Chile share a political border and geological boundary, the two countries provide contrasting examples of state formation. Most disaster relief and reconstruction efforts emanated from the centralized Chilean state in Santiago. In Argentina, provincial officials made the majority of decisions in a catastrophe’s aftermath. Patriotic citizens raised money and collected clothing for survivors that helped to weave divergent regions together into a nation. The shared experience of earthquakes in all regions of Chile created a national disaster culture. Similarly, common disaster experiences, reciprocal relief efforts, and aid commissions linked Chileans with Western Argentine societies and generated a transnational disaster culture. Political leaders viewed reconstruction as opportunities to implement their visions for the nation on the urban landscape. These rebuilding projects threatened existing social hierarchies and often failed to come to fruition. Rebuilding brought new technologies from Europe to the Southern Cone. New building materials and systems, however, had to be adapted to the South American economic and natural environment. In a catastrophe’s aftermath, newspapers projected images of disorder and the authorities feared lawlessness and social unrest. Judicial and criminal records, however, show that crime often decreased after a disaster. Finally, nineteenth-century earthquakes heightened antagonism and conflict between the Catholic Church and the state. Conservative clergy asserted that disasters were divine punishments for the state’s anti-clerical measures and later railed against scientific explanations of earthquakes.