Estimation of global systematic risk for securities listed in multiple markets

The market model is the most frequently estimated model in financial economics and has proven extremely useful in the estimation of systematic risk. In this era of rapid globalization of financial markets there has been a substantial increase in cross listings of stocks in foreign and regional capital markets. As many as a third to a half of the stocks in some major exchanges are foreign listed. The multiple listings of stocks has major implications for the estimation of systematic risk. The traditiona1 method of estimating the market model by using data from only one market will lead to misleading estimates of beta. This study demonstrates that the estimator for systematic risk and the methodology itself changes when stocks are listed in multiple markets. General expressions are developed to obtain the estimator of global beta under a variety of assumptions about the error terms of the market models for different capital markets. The assumptions pertain both to the volatilities of the abnormal returns in each market, and to the relationship between the markets. ^ Explicit expressions are derived for the estimation of global systematic risk beta when the returns are homoscedastic and also under different heteroscedastic conditions both within and/or between markets. These results for the estimation of global beta are further extended when return generating process follows an autoregressive scheme.^

Three essays on market depth in futures markets

Liquidity is an important market characteristic for participants in every financial market. One of the three components of liquidity is market depth. Prior literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of depth in U.S. futures markets due to past limitations on the availability of data. However, recent innovations in data collection and dissemination provide new opportunities to investigate the depth dimension of liquidity. In this dissertation, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group proprietary database on depth is employed to study the dynamics of depth in the U.S. futures markets. This database allows for the analysis of depth along the entire limit order book rather than just at the first level. The first essay examines the characteristics of depth within the context of the five-deep limit order book. Results show that a large amount of depth is present in the book beyond the best level. Furthermore, the findings show that the characteristics of five-deep depth between day and night trading vary and that depth is unequal across levels within the limit order book. The second essay examines the link between the five-deep market depth and the bid-ask spread. The results suggest an inverse relation between the spread and the depth after adjusting for control factors. The third essay explores transitory volatility in relation to depth in the limit order book. Evidence supports the relation between an increase in volatility and a subsequent decrease in market depth. Overall, the results of this dissertation are consistent with limit order traders actively managing depth along the limit order book in electronic U.S. futures markets.

Three Essays on Market Depth in Futures Markets

Liquidity is an important market characteristic for participants in every financial market. One of the three components of liquidity is market depth. Prior literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of depth in U.S. futures markets due to past limitations on the availability of data. However, recent innovations in data collection and dissemination provide new opportunities to investigate the depth dimension of liquidity. In this dissertation, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group proprietary database on depth is employed to study the dynamics of depth in the U.S. futures markets. This database allows for the analysis of depth along the entire limit order book rather than just at the first level. The first essay examines the characteristics of depth within the context of the five-deep limit order book. Results show that a large amount of depth is present in the book beyond the best level. Furthermore, the findings show that the characteristics of five-deep depth between day and night trading vary and that depth is unequal across levels within the limit order book. The second essay examines the link between the five-deep market depth and the bid-ask spread. The results suggest an inverse relation between the spread and the depth after adjusting for control factors. The third essay explores transitory volatility in relation to depth in the limit order book. Evidence supports the relation between an increase in volatility and a subsequent decrease in market depth. Overall, the results of this dissertation are consistent with limit order traders actively managing depth along the limit order book in electronic U.S. futures markets.

Academic performance of college students in financial management and related prerequisite courses: A comparison of senior high school and commercial high school graduates attending Tamsui Oxford University College in Taiwan

In Taiwan, the college freshmen are recruited graduates of both senior high school and senior vocational school. The Ministry of Education (MOE) of the Republic of China prescribes the standards of curriculum and equipment for schools at all levels and categories. There exists a considerably different curriculum arrangement for senior high schools and vocational high schools in Taiwan at the present time. The present study used a causal-comparative research design to identify the influences of different post-secondary educational background on specialized course performance of college business majors. ^ The students involved in this study were limited to the students of four business-related departments at Tamsui Oxford University College in Taiwan. Students were assigned to comparison groups based on their post-secondary educational background as senior high school graduates and commercial high school graduates. The analysis of this study included a comparison of students' performance on lower level courses and a comparison of students' performance in financial management. The analysis also considered the relationship between the students' performance in financial management and its related prerequisite courses. The Kolb Learning Style Inventory (LSI) survey was administered to categorize subjects' learning styles and to compare the learning styles between the two groups in this study. The applied statistical methods included t-test, correlation, multiple regression, and Chi-square. ^ The findings of this study indicated that there were significant differences between the commercial high school graduates and the senior high school graduates on academic performances in specialized courses but not in general courses. There were no significant differences in learning styles between the two groups. These findings lead to the conclusion that business majors' academic performance in specialized courses were influenced by their post-secondary educational background. ^

On the fundamentals of research and development (R&D) spillovers in competitive markets

Rivals may voluntarily share Research and Development (R&D) results even in the absence of any binding agreements or collusion. In a model where rival firms engage in non-cooperative independent R&D process, we used optimization and game theory analysis to study the equilibrium strategy of the firms. Our work showed that, while minimal spillover is always equilibrium, there may be another equilibrium where firms may reciprocally choose high, sometimes perfect, spillover rates. The incentive for sharing R&D output is based on firms' expectations of learning from their rivals' R&D progress in the future. This leads to strategic complementarities between the firms' choices of spillover rates and thus policy implication follows. ^ Public research agencies can contribute more to social welfare by providing research as public goods. In a non-cooperative public-private research relationship where parallel R&D is conducted, by making its R&D results accessible, the public research agency can stimulate private spillovers, even if there exists rivalry among the private firms who can benefit from such spillovers. ^

Entrepreneur's Dilemma: Hotel Investments in Emerging Markets

Estimating the required rate of return for hotel properties is a daunting task because a lodging property is considered a hybrid between a real estate asset, and a revenue-generating enterprise affiliated with a hotel brand. Computing the expected rate of return for a hotel becomes even more complicated when a third party foreign investor/entrepreneur is the one performing the computation for an investment hotel in an emerging country. This clinical case illustrates the challenges surrounding the estimation of a project’s cost of equity in the multinational hotel industry. The results reveal that estimating cost of equity in emerging markets for hotel investments continues to be a conundrum. Future investors should make multiple adjustments and use several models when making their capital investment decisions.

Market definition in industrial high-technology markets

This dissertation analyzes how marketers define markets in technology-based industries. One of the most important strategic decisions marketers face is determining the optimal market for their products. Market definition is critical in dynamic high technology markets characterized by high levels of market and technological uncertainty. Building on literature from marketing and related disciplines, this research is the first in-depth study of market definition in industrial markets. Using a national, probability sample stratified by firm size, 1,000 marketing executives in nine industries (automation, biotechnology, computers, medical equipment and instrumentation, pharmaceuticals, photonics, software, subassemblies and components, and telecommunications) were surveyed via a mail questionnaire. A 20.8% net response rate yielding 203 surveys was achieved. The market structure-conduct-performance (SCP) paradigm from industrial organization provided a conceptual basis for testing a causal market definition model via LISREL. A latent exogenous variable (competitive intensity) and four latent endogenous variables (marketing orientation, technological orientation, market definition criteria, and market definition success) were used to develop and test hypothesized relationships among constructs. Research questions relating to market redefinition, market definition characteristics, and internal (within the firm) and external (competitive) market definition were also investigated. Market definition success was found to be positively associated with a marketing orientation and the use of market definition criteria. Technological orientation was not significantly related to market definition success. Customer needs were the key market definition characteristic to high-tech firms (technology, competition, customer groups, and products were also important). Market redefinition based on changing customer needs was the most effective of seven strategies tested. A majority of firms regularly defined their market at the corporate and product-line level within the firm. From a competitive perspective, industry, industry sector, and product-market definitions were used most frequently.

Essays in open economy macroeconomics

Research macroeconomists have witnessed remarkable methodological developments in mathematical, statistical, and computational tools during the last two decades. The three essays in this dissertation took advantage of these advances to analyze important macroeconomic issues. ^ The first essay, “ Habit Formation, Adjustments Costs, and International Business Cycle Puzzles” analyzes the extent to which incorporating habit formation and adjustment costs in investment in a one-good two-country general equilibrium model would help overcome some of the international business cycle puzzles. Unlike standard results in the literature, the model generates persistent, cyclical adjustment paths in response to shocks. It also yields positive cross-country correlations in consumption, employment, investment, and output. Cross-country correlations in output are higher than the ones in consumption. This is qualitatively consistent with the stylized facts. These results are particularly striking given the predicted negative correlations in investment, employment, and output that are typically found in the literature. ^ The second essay, “Comparison Utility, Endogenous Time Preference, and Economic Growth,” uses World War II as a natural experiment to analyze the degree to which a model where consumers' preferences exhibit comparison-based utility and endogenous discounting is able to improve upon existing models in mimicking the transitional dynamics of an economy after a shock that destroys part of its capital stock. The model outperforms existing ones in replicating the behavior of the saving rate (both on impact and along the transient paths) after this historical event. This result brings additional support to the endogenous rate of time preference being a crucial element in growth models. ^ The last essay, “Monetary Policy under Fear of Floating: Modeling the Dominican Economy,” presents a small scale macroeconomic model for a country (Dominican Republic) characterized by a strong presence of fear of floating (reluctance to have a flexible exchange rate regime) in the conduct of monetary policy. The dynamic responses of this economy to external shocks that are of interest for monetary policy purposes are analyzed under two alternative interest rate policy rules: One being the standard Taylor rule and another that responds explicitly to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to its long-term trend. ^

Measuring effectiveness in international financial crime prevention: Can we agree on a performance metric?

The attempts at carrying out terrorist attacks have become more prevalent. As a result, an increasing number of countries have become particularly vigilant against the means by which terrorists raise funds to finance their draconian acts against human life and property. Among the many counter-terrorism agencies in operation, governments have set up financial intelligence units (FIUs) within their borders for the purpose of tracking down terrorists’ funds. By investigating reported suspicious transactions, FIUs attempt to weed out financial criminals who use these illegal funds to finance terrorist activity. The prominent role played by FIUs means that their performance is always under the spotlight. By interviewing experts and conducting surveys of those associated with the fight against financial crime, this study investigated perceptions of FIU performance on a comparative basis between American and non-American FIUs. The target group of experts included financial institution personnel, civilian agents, law enforcement personnel, academicians, and consultants. Questions for the interview and surveys were based on the Kaplan and Norton’s Balanced Scorecard (BSC) methodology. One of the objectives of this study was to help determine the suitability of the BSC to this arena. While FIUs in this study have concentrated on performance by measuring outputs such as the number of suspicious transaction reports investigated, this study calls for a focus on outcomes involving all the parties responsible for financial criminal investigations. It is only through such an integrated approach that these various entities will be able to improve performance in solving financial crime. Experts in financial intelligence strongly believed that the quality and timeliness of intelligence was more important than keeping track of the number of suspicious transaction reports. Finally, this study concluded that the BSC could be appropriately applied to the arena of financial crime prevention even though the emphasis is markedly different from that in the private sector. While priority in the private sector is given to financial outcomes, in this arena employee growth and internal processes were perceived as most important in achieving a satisfactory outcome.

The effect of domestic credit in the economic *development process

A commonly held view is that creation of excessive domestic credit may lead to inflation problems, however, many economists uphold the possibility that, generous domestic credit under appropriate conditions will result in increases of output. This hypothesis is examined for Japan and Colombia for the period 1950-1993.^ Domestic credit theories are reviewed since the times of Thornton and Smith, until the recent times of Lewis, McKinnon, Stiglitz and of Japanese economists like K. Emi, Tachi R. and others. It is found that in Japan of the Post-War period, efficient financial markets and the decisive role of the government in orienting investment decisions seem to have influenced positively the effectiveness of domestic credit as an output-stimulating variable. On the contrary, in Colombia the absence of the above features seems to explain why domestic credit is not very effective as an output-stimulating variable.^ Multiple regression analyses show that domestic credit is a strong explanatory variable for output increases in Japan and a weak one for Colombia's case in the studied period. For Japan the correlation depicts a positive relationship between the two variables with a decreasing rate very similar to a typical production function. Moreover, the positive decreasing rate is confirmed if net domestic credit is used in the correlations. For Colombia a positive relationship is also found when accumulated domestic credit is used, but, if net domestic credit is the source of correlations, the positive decreasing rate is not obtained.^ Granger causality tests determined causality from domestic credit to output for Japan and no-causality for Colombia at the 1% significance level; the differences are explained by: (1) The low development level of the financial system in Colombia. (2) The nonexistence of consistent domestic credit policy to foster economic development. (3) The lack of an authoritative orientation in the allocation of financial resources and the nonexistence of long range industrialization programs in Colombia that could channel productively credit resources. For the system of equations relating domestic credit and exports, the Granger causality tests determined no-causality between domestic credit and exports for both Japan and Colombia also at the 1% significance level. ^

Essays in Open Economy Macroeconomics

Research macroeconomists have witnessed remarkable methodological developments in mathematical, statistical, and computational tools during the last two decades. The three essays in this dissertation took advantage of these advances to analyze important macroeconomic issues. The first essay, “ Habit Formation, Adjustments Costs, and International Business Cycle Puzzles” analyzes the extent to which incorporating habit formation and adjustment costs in investment in a one-good two-country general equilibrium model would help overcome some of the international business cycle puzzles. Unlike standard results in the literature, the model generates persistent, cyclical adjustment paths in response to shocks. It also yields positive cross-country correlations in consumption, employment, investment, and output. Cross-country correlations in output are higher than the ones in consumption. This is qualitatively consistent with the stylized facts. These results are particularly striking given the predicted negative correlations in investment, employment, and output that are typically found in the literature. The second essay, “Comparison Utility, Endogenous Time Preference, and Economic Growth,” uses World War II as a natural experiment to analyze the degree to which a model where consumers' preferences exhibit comparison-based utility and endogenous discounting is able to improve upon existing models in mimicking the transitional dynamics of an economy after a shock that destroys part of its capital stock. The model outperforms existing ones in replicating the behavior of the saving rate (both on impact and along the transient paths) after this historical event. This result brings additional support to the endogenous rate of time preference being a crucial element in growth models. The last essay, “Monetary Policy under Fear of Floating: Modeling the Dominican Economy,” presents a small scale macroeconomic model for a country (Dominican Republic) characterized by a strong presence of fear of floating (reluctance to have a flexible exchange rate regime) in the conduct of monetary policy. The dynamic responses of this economy to external shocks that are of interest for monetary policy purposes are analyzed under two alternative interest rate policy rules: One being the standard Taylor rule and another that responds explicitly to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to its long-term trend.

Microstructure Characteristics of U.S. Futures Markets

Prior finance literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of microstructure characteristics of U.S. futures markets due to the lack of data availability. Utilizing a unique data set for five different futures contract this dissertation fills this gap in the finance literature. In three essays price discovery, resiliency and the components of bid-ask spreads in electronic futures markets are examined. In order to provide comprehensive and robust analysis, both moderately volatile pre-crisis and volatile crisis periods are included in the analysis. The first essay entitled “Price Discovery and Liquidity Characteristics for U.S. Electronic Futures and ETF Markets” explores the price discovery process in U.S. futures and ETF markets. Hasbrouck’s information share method is applied to futures and ETF instruments. The information share results show that futures markets dominate the price discovery process. The results on the factors that affect the price discovery process show that when volatility increases, the price leadership of futures markets declines. Furthermore, when the relative size of bid-ask spread in one market increases, its information share decreases. The second essay, entitled “The Resiliency of Large Trades for U.S. Electronic Futures Markets,“ examines the effects of large trades in futures markets. How quickly prices and liquidity recovers after large trades is an important characteristic of financial markets. The price effects of large trades are greater during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Furthermore, relative to the pre-crisis period, during the crisis period it takes more trades until liquidity returns to the pre-block trade levels. The third essay, entitled “Components of Quoted Bid-Ask Spreads in U.S. Electronic Futures Markets,” investigates the bid-ask spread components in futures market. The components of bid-ask spreads is one of the most important subjects of microstructure studies. Utilizing Huang and Stoll’s (1997) method the third essay of this dissertation provides the first analysis of the components of quoted bid-ask spreads in U.S. electronic futures markets. The results show that order processing cost is the largest component of bid-ask spreads, followed by inventory holding costs. During the crisis period market makers increase bid-ask spreads due to increasing inventory holding and adverse selection risks.