Forecasting Responses of Seagrass Distributions to Changing Water Quality Using Monitoring Data

Extensive data sets on water quality and seagrass distributions in Florida Bay have been assembled under complementary, but independent, monitoring programs. This paper presents the landscape-scale results from these monitoring programs and outlines a method for exploring the relationships between two such data sets. Seagrass species occurrence and abundance data were used to define eight benthic habitat classes from 677 sampling locations in Florida Bay. Water quality data from 28 monitoring stations spread across the Bay were used to construct a discriminant function model that assigned a probability of a given benthic habitat class occurring for a given combination of water quality variables. Mean salinity, salinity variability, the amount of light reaching the benthos, sediment depth, and mean nutrient concentrations were important predictor variables in the discriminant function model. Using a cross-validated classification scheme, this discriminant function identified the most likely benthic habitat type as the actual habitat type in most cases. The model predicted that the distribution of benthic habitat types in Florida Bay would likely change if water quality and water delivery were changed by human engineering of freshwater discharge from the Everglades. Specifically, an increase in the seasonal delivery of freshwater to Florida Bay should cause an expansion of seagrass beds dominated by Ruppia maritima and Halodule wrightii at the expense of the Thalassia testudinum-dominated community that now occurs in northeast Florida Bay. These statistical techniques should prove useful for predicting landscape-scale changes in community composition in diverse systems where communities are in quasi-equilibrium with environmental drivers.

Recent Fish Introductions Into Everglades National Park: An Unforeseen Consequence of Water Management?

Non-native fishes present a management challenge to maintaining Everglades National Park (ENP) in a natural state. We summarized data from long-term fish monitoring studies in ENP and reviewed the timing of introductions relative to water-management changes. Beginning in the early 1950s, management actions have added canals, altered wetland habitats by flooding and drainage, and changed inflows into ENP, particularly in the Taylor Slough/C-111 basin and Rocky Glades. The first non-native fishes likely entered ENP by the late 1960s, but species numbers increased sharply in the early 1980s when new water-management actions were implemented. After 1999, eight non-native species and three native species, all previously recorded outside of Park boundaries, were found for the first time in ENP. Several of these incursions occurred following structural and operational changes that redirected water deliveries to wetlands open to the eastern boundary canals. Once established, control non-native fishes in Everglades wetlands is difficult; therefore, preventing introductions is key to their management. Integrating actions that minimize the spread of non-native species into protected natural areas into the adaptive management process for planning, development, and operation of water-management features may help to achieve the full suite of objectives for Everglades restoration.