Socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change in South Florida

Awareness of extreme high tide flooding in coastal communities has been increasing in recent years, reflecting growing concern over accelerated sea level rise. As a low-lying, urban coastal community with high value real estate, Miami often tops the rankings of cities worldwide in terms of vulnerability to sea level rise. Understanding perceptions of these changes and how communities are dealing with the impacts reveals much about vulnerability to climate change and the challenges of adaptation. ^ This empirical study uses an innovative mixed-methods approach that combines ethnographic observations of high tide flooding, qualitative interviews and analysis of tidal data to reveal coping strategies used by residents and businesses as well as perceptions of sea level rise and climate change, and to assess the relationship between measurable sea levels and perceptions of flooding. I conduct a case study of Miami Beach's storm water master planning process which included sea level rise projections, one of the first in the nation to do so, that reveals the different and sometimes competing logics of planners, public officials, activists, residents and business interests with regards to climate change adaptation. By taking a deeply contextual account of hazards and adaptation efforts in a local area I demonstrate how this approach can be effective at shedding light on some of the challenges posed by anthropogenic climate change and accelerated rates of sea level rise. ^ The findings highlight challenges for infrastructure planning in low-lying, urban coastal areas, and for individual risk assessment in the context of rapidly evolving discourse about the threat of sea level rise. Recognition of the trade-offs and limits of incremental adaptation strategies point to transformative approaches, at the same time highlighting equity concerns in adaptation governance and planning. This new impact assessment method contributes to the integration of social and physical science approaches to climate change, resulting in improved understanding of socio-ecological vulnerability to environmental change.^

Heterogeneity in Residential Yard Care: Evidence from Boston, Miami, and Phoenix

The management of residential landscapes occurs within a complex socio-ecological system linking household decision-making with ecological properties, multi-scalar human drivers, and the legacy effects of past management. Conventional wisdom suggests that resource-intensive turf grass yards are the most common landscaping outcome, resulting in a presumed homogeneous set of residential landscaping practices throughout North America. We examine this homogenization thesis through an interview-based, cross-site study of residential landscape management in Boston, Phoenix, and Miami. Counter to the homogeneity thesis, we find that yard management practices often exhibit heterogeneity, for example, in groundcover choice or use of chemical inputs. The degree of heterogeneity in management practices varies according to the scale of analysis, and is the outcome of a range of constraints and opportunities to which households respond differently depending on their existing yard and landscaping preferences. This study highlights the importance of multi-scalar and cross-site analyses of decision-making in socio-ecological systems, and presents opportunities for longitudinal and cross-site research to examine the extent to which homogeneity is actually present in the management of residential landscapes over time and in diverse places.

Using data from an encounter sampler to model fish dispersal

A method to estimate speed of free-ranging fishes using a passive sampling device is described and illustrated with data from the Everglades, U.S.A. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) from minnow traps embedded in drift fences was treated as an encounter rate and used to estimate speed, when combined with an independent estimate of density obtained by use of throw traps that enclose 1 m2 of marsh habitat. Underwater video was used to evaluate capture efficiency and species-specific bias of minnow traps and two sampling studies were used to estimate trap saturation and diel-movement patterns; these results were used to optimize sampling and derive correction factors to adjust species-specific encounter rates for bias and capture efficiency. Sailfin mollies Poecilia latipinna displayed a high frequency of escape from traps, whereas eastern mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki were most likely to avoid a trap once they encountered it; dollar sunfish Lepomis marginatus were least likely to avoid the trap once they encountered it or to escape once they were captured. Length of sampling and time of day affected CPUE; fishes generally had a very low retention rate over a 24 h sample time and only the Everglades pygmy sunfish Elassoma evergladei were commonly captured at night. Dispersal speed of fishes in the Florida Everglades, U.S.A., was shown to vary seasonally and among species, ranging from 0· 05 to 0· 15 m s−1 for small poeciliids and fundulids to 0· 1 to 1· 8 m s−1 for L. marginatus. Speed was generally highest late in the wet season and lowest in the dry season, possibly tied to dispersal behaviours linked to finding and remaining in dry-season refuges. These speed estimates can be used to estimate the diffusive movement rate, which is commonly employed in spatial ecological models.

Maternal-Fetal Attachment and Health Behaviors among Women with HIV/AIDS

Background: Mothers with HIV often face personal and environmental risks for poor maternal health behaviors and infant neglect, even when HIV transmission to the infant was prevented. Maternal-fetal attachment (MFA), the pre-birth relationship of a woman with her fetus, may be the precursor to maternal caregiving. Using the strengths perspective in social work, which embeds MFA within a socio-ecological conceptual framework, it is hypothesized that high levels of maternal-fetal attachment may protect mothers and infants against poor maternal health behaviors. Objective: To assess whether MFA together with history of substance use, living marital status, planned pregnancy status, and timing of HIV diagnosis predict three desirable maternal health behaviors (pregnancy care, adherence to prenatal antiretroviral therapy–ART, and infant’s screening clinic care) among pregnant women with HIV/AIDS. Method: Prospective observation and hypothesis-testing multivariate analyses. Over 17 consecutive months, all eligible English- or Spanish-speaking pregnant women with HIV ( n = 110) were approached in the principal obstetric and screening clinics in Miami-Dade County, Florida at 24 weeks’ gestation; 82 agreed to enroll. During three data collection periods from enrollment until 16 weeks after childbirth (range: 16 to 32 weeks), participants reported on socio-demographic and predictor variables, MFA, and pregnancy care. Measures of adherence to ART and infant care were extracted from medical records. Findings: Sociodemographic, pregnancy, and HIV disease characteristics in this sample suggest changes in the makeup of HIV-infected pregnant women parallel to the evolution of the HIV epidemic in the USA over the past two decades. The MFA model predicted maternal health behaviors for pregnancy care (R2 = .37), with MFA, marital living status, and planned pregnancy status independently contributing ( = .50, = .28, = .23, respectively). It did not predict adherence to ART medication or infant care. Relevance: These findings provide the first focused evidence of the protective role of MFA against poor maternal health behaviors among pregnant women with HIV, in the presence of adverse life circumstances. Social desirability biases in some self-report measures may limit the findings. Suggestions are made for orienting future inquiry on maternal health behaviors during childbirth toward relationship and protection.

Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-for-time substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Space-for-Time Substitution Works in Everglades Ecological Forecasting Models

Space-for-time substitution is often used in predictive models because long-term time-series data are not available. Critics of this method suggest factors other than the target driver may affect ecosystem response and could vary spatially, producing misleading results. Monitoring data from the Florida Everglades were used to test whether spatial data can be substituted for temporal data in forecasting models. Spatial models that predicted bluefin killifish (Lucania goodei) population response to a drying event performed comparably and sometimes better than temporal models. Models worked best when results were not extrapolated beyond the range of variation encompassed by the original dataset. These results were compared to other studies to determine whether ecosystem features influence whether space-for-time substitution is feasible. Taken in the context of other studies, these results suggest space-fortime substitution may work best in ecosystems with low beta-diversity, high connectivity between sites, and small lag in organismal response to the driver variable.

Developing performance measures of mangrove wetlands using simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and community dynamics

The goal of mangrove restoration projects should be to improve community structure and ecosystem function of degraded coastal landscapes. This requires the ability to forecast how mangrove structure and function will respond to prescribed changes in site conditions including hydrology, topography, and geophysical energies. There are global, regional, and local factors that can explain gradients of regulators (e.g., salinity, sulfides), resources (nutrients, light, water), and hydroperiod (frequency, duration of flooding) that collectively account for stressors that result in diverse patterns of mangrove properties across a variety of environmental settings. Simulation models of hydrology, nutrient biogeochemistry, and vegetation dynamics have been developed to forecast patterns in mangroves in the Florida Coastal Everglades. These models provide insight to mangrove response to specific restoration alternatives, testing causal mechanisms of system degradation. We propose that these models can also assist in selecting performance measures for monitoring programs that evaluate project effectiveness. This selection process in turn improves model development and calibration for forecasting mangrove response to restoration alternatives. Hydrologic performance measures include soil regulators, particularly soil salinity, surface topography of mangrove landscape, and hydroperiod, including both the frequency and duration of flooding. Estuarine performance measures should include salinity of the bay, tidal amplitude, and conditions of fresh water discharge (included in the salinity value). The most important performance measures from the mangrove biogeochemistry model should include soil resources (bulk density, total nitrogen, and phosphorus) and soil accretion. Mangrove ecology performance measures should include forest dimension analysis (transects and/or plots), sapling recruitment, leaf area index, and faunal relationships. Estuarine ecology performance measures should include the habitat function of mangroves, which can be evaluated with growth rate of key species, habitat suitability analysis, isotope abundance of indicator species, and bird census. The list of performance measures can be modified according to the model output that is used to define the scientific goals during the restoration planning process that reflect specific goals of the project.

A conceptual ecological model to facilitate understanding the role of invasive species in large-scale ecosystem restoration

We developed a conceptual ecological model (CEM) for invasive species to help understand the role invasive exotics have in ecosystem ecology and their impacts on restoration activities. Our model, which can be applied to any invasive species, grew from the eco-regional conceptual models developed for Everglades restoration. These models identify ecological drivers, stressors, effects and attributes; we integrated the unique aspects of exotic species invasions and effects into this conceptual hierarchy. We used the model to help identify important aspects of invasion in the development of an invasive exotic plant ecological indicator, which is described a companion paper in this special issue journal. A key aspect of the CEM is that it is a general ecological model that can be tailored to specific cases and species, as the details of any invasion are unique to that invasive species. Our model encompasses the temporal and spatial changes that characterize invasion, identifying the general conditions that allow a species to become invasive in a de novo environment; it then enumerates the possible effects exotic species may have collectively and individually at varying scales and for different ecosystem properties, once a species becomes invasive. The model provides suites of characteristics and processes, as well as hypothesized causal relationships to consider when thinking about the effects or potential effects of an invasive exotic and how restoration efforts will affect these characteristics and processes. In order to illustrate how to use the model as a blueprint for applying a similar approach to other invasive species and ecosystems, we give two examples of using this conceptual model to evaluate the status of two south Florida invasive exotic plant species (melaleuca and Old World climbing fern) and consider potential impacts of these invasive species on restoration.

The influence of neighbourhood formality status and socio-economic position on self-rated health among adult men and women: a multilevel, cross sectional, population study from Aleppo, Syria

Background There is substantial evidence from high income countries that neighbourhoods have an influence on health independent of individual characteristics. However, neighbourhood characteristics are rarely taken into account in the analysis of urban health studies from developing countries. Informal urban neighbourhoods are home to about half of the population in Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria (population>2.5 million). This study aimed to examine the influence of neighbourhood socioeconomic status (SES) and formality status on self-rated health (SRH) of adult men and women residing in formal and informal urban neighbourhoods in Aleppo. Methods The study used data from 2038 survey respondents to the Aleppo Household Survey, 2004 (age 18–65 years, 54.8% women, response rate 86%). Respondents were nested in 45 neighbourhoods. Five individual-level SES measures, namely education, employment, car ownership, item ownership and household density, were aggregated to the level of neighbourhood. Multilevel regression models were used to investigate associations. Results We did not find evidence of important SRH variation between neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood average of household item ownership was associated with a greater likelihood of reporting excellent SRH in women; odds ratio (OR) for an increase of one item on average was 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.4 (versus poor SRH)) and 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.5 (versus normal SRH)), adjusted for individual characteristics and neighbourhood formality. After controlling for individual and neighbourhood SES measures, women living in informal neighbourhoods were less likely to report poor SRH than women living in formal neighbourhoods (OR= 0.4; 95% CI (0.2- 0.8) (versus poor SRH) and OR=0.5; 95%; CI (0.3-0.9) (versus normal SRH). Conclusions Findings support evidence from high income countries that certain characteristic of neighbourhoods affect men and women in different ways. Further research from similar urban settings in developing countries is needed to understand the mechanisms by which informal neighbourhoods influence women’s health.

The relationship of immigrant status to perceptions of reading and reading literacy among young Black students: A test of the Cultural -Ecological Theory of School Performance

This study tests Ogbu and Simons' Cultural-Ecological Theory of School Performance using data from the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study of 2001 (PIRLS), a large-scale international survey and reading assessment involving fourth grade students from 35 countries, including the United States. This theory argues that Black immigrant students outperform their non-immigrant counterparts, academically, and that achievement differences are attributed to stronger educational commitment in Black immigrant families. Four hypotheses are formulated to test this theory: Black immigrant students have (a) more receptive attitudes toward reading; (b) a more positive reading self-concept; and (c) a higher level of reading literacy. Furthermore, (d) the relationship of immigrant status to reading perceptions and literacy persists after including selected predictors. These hypotheses are tested separately for girls and boys, while also examining immigrant students' generational status (i.e., foreign-born or second-generation). ^ PIRLS data from a subset of Black students (N=525) in the larger U.S. sample of 3,763 are analyzed to test the hypotheses, using analysis of variance, correlation and multiple regression techniques. Findings reveal that hypotheses a and b are not confirmed (contradicting the Cultural-Ecological Theory) and c and d are partially supported (lending partial support to the theory). Specifically, immigrant and non-immigrant students did not differ in attitudes toward reading or reading self-concept; second-generation immigrant boys outperformed both non-immigrant and foreign-born immigrant boys in reading literacy, but no differences were found among girls; and, while being second-generation immigrant had a relatively stronger relationship to reading literacy for boys, among girls, selected socio-cultural predictors, number of books in the home and length of U.S. residence, had relatively stronger relationship to reading self-concept than did immigrant status. This study, therefore, indicates that future research employing the Cultural-Ecological Theory should: (a) take gender and generational status into account (b) identify additional socio-cultural predictors of Black children's academic perceptions and performance; and (c) continue to build on this body of evidence-based knowledge to better inform educational policy and school personnel in addressing needs of all children. ^

Integrated Carbon Budget Models for the Everglades Terrestrial-Coastal-Oceanic Gradient: Current Status and Needs for Inter-Site Comparisons

Recent studies suggest that coastal ecosystems can bury significantly more C than tropical forests, indicating that continued coastal development and exposure to sea level rise and storms will have global biogeochemical consequences. The Florida Coastal Everglades Long Term Ecological Research (FCE LTER) site provides an excellent subtropical system for examining carbon (C) balance because of its exposure to historical changes in freshwater distribution and sea level rise and its history of significant long-term carbon-cycling studies. FCE LTER scientists used net ecosystem C balance and net ecosystem exchange data to estimate C budgets for riverine mangrove, freshwater marsh, and seagrass meadows, providing insights into the magnitude of C accumulation and lateral aquatic C transport. Rates of net C production in the riverine mangrove forest exceeded those reported for many tropical systems, including terrestrial forests, but there are considerable uncertainties around those estimates due to the high potential for gain and loss of C through aquatic fluxes. C production was approximately balanced between gain and loss in Everglades marshes; however, the contribution of periphyton increases uncertainty in these estimates. Moreover, while the approaches used for these initial estimates were informative, a resolved approach for addressing areas of uncertainty is critically needed for coastal wetland ecosystems. Once resolved, these C balance estimates, in conjunction with an understanding of drivers and key ecosystem feedbacks, can inform cross-system studies of ecosystem response to long-term changes in climate, hydrologic management, and other land use along coastlines.

International tourism and socio-economic development in the Caribbean : are they compatible?

Plagued with poverty, the countries of the Caribbean have grappled for years with numerous development models. As in many Third World countries, tourism has been used as an economic development strategy. Criticisms of the tourism industry have frequently been severe. So much that during the formation of the Caribbean Basin Initiative, the tourism industry was intentionally avoided and other industries favored. One of the most critical questions asked of tourism is whether or not the economic gains of the industry are worth the detrimental social, political and environmental effects on the host country. It is the objective of this thesis to examine the relationship between international tourism and socio-economic development in the Caribbean, and to determine whether or not the deficiencies of the industry prevent it from being a beneficial development tool.