Decision-making under extreme *uncertainty: Rethinking hazard -related perceptions and action

Understanding who evacuates and who does not has been one of the cornerstones of research on the pre-impact phase of both natural and technological hazards. Its history is rich in descriptive illustrations focusing on lists of characteristics of those who flee to safety. Early models of evacuation focused almost exclusively on the relationship between whether warnings were heard and ultimately believed and evacuation behavior. How people came to believe these warnings and even how they interpreted the warnings were not incorporated. In fact, the individual seemed almost removed from the picture with analysis focusing exclusively on external measures. ^ This study built and tested a more comprehensive model of evacuation that centers on the decision-making process, rather than decision outcomes. The model focused on three important factors that alter and shape the evacuation decision-making landscape. These factors are: individual level indicators which exist independently of the hazard itself and act as cultural lenses through which information is heard, processed and interpreted; hazard specific variables that directly relate to the specific hazard threat; and risk perception. The ultimate goal is to determine what factors influence the evacuation decision-making process. Using data collected for 1998's Hurricane Georges, logistic regression models were used to evaluate how well the three main factors help our understanding of how individuals come to their decisions to either flee to safety during a hurricane or remain in their homes. ^ The results of the logistic regression were significant emphasizing that the three broad types of factors tested in the model influence the decision making process. Conclusions drawn from the data analysis focus on how decision-making frames are different for those who can be designated “evacuators” and for those in evacuation zones. ^

Personal autonomy in discharge planning decision -making in mentally alert hospitalized elderly individuals: The social workers' perspective

This study was conducted to understand (a) hospital social workers' perspectives about patients' personal autonomy and self-determination, (b) their experiences, and (c) their beliefs and behaviors. The study used the maximum variation sampling strategy to select hospitals and hospital social work respondents. Individual interviews were conducted with 31 medical/surgical and mental health hospital social workers who worked in 13 hospitals. The data suggest the following four points. First, the hospital setting as an outside influence as it relates to illness and safety, and its four categories, mentally alert patients, family members, health care professionals, and social work respondents, seems to enhance or diminish patients' autonomy in discharge planning decision making. Second, respondents report they believe patients must be safe both inside and outside the hospital. In theory, respondents support autonomy and self-determination, respect patients' wishes, and believe patients are the decision makers. However, in practice, respondents respect autonomy and self-determination to a point. Third, a model, The Patient's Decision in Discharge Planning: A Continuum, is presented where a safe discharge plan is at one end of a continuum, while an unsafe discharge plan is at the other end. Respondents respect personal autonomy and the patient's self-determination to a point. This point is likely to be located in a gray area where the patient's decision crosses from one end of the continuum to the other. When patients decide on an unsafe discharge plan, workers' interventions range from autonomy to paternalism. And fourth, the hospital setting as an outside influence may not offer the best opportunity for patients to make decisions (a) because of beliefs family members and health care professionals hold about the value of patient self-determination, and (b) because patients may not feel free to make decisions in an environment where they are surrounded by family members, health care professionals, and social work respondents who have power and who think they know best. Workers need to continue to educate elderly patients about their right to self-determination in the hospital setting. ^

Effects of inconsistencies in eyewitness testimony on mock-juror decision-making

In attempting to impeach eyewitnesses, attorneys often highlight inconsistencies in the eyewitness's recall. This study examined the differential impact of types of inconsistent testimony on mock-juror decisions. Each of 100 community members and 200 undergraduates viewed one of four versions of a videotaped trial in which the primary evidence against the defendant was the testimony of the eyewitness. I manipulated the types of inconsistent statements given by the eyewitness in the four versions: (1) consistent testimony, (2) information given on-the-stand but not given during the pre-trial investigation, (3) contradictions between on-the-stand and pre-trial statements, and (4) contradictions made on the witness stand. Subjects exposed to any form of inconsistent testimony were less likely to convict and found the defendant less culpable and the eyewitness less effective. These effects were larger for contradictions than for information given on the stand but not during pre-trial investigations. ^

The National Institute of Justice guide for eyewitness identification evidence: Can it improve juror decision-making?

Mistaken eyewitness identifications of innocent lead to more false convictions in the United States than any other cause. In response to concerns about the reliability of eyewitness evidence, the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) in 1999 published a Guide for the gathering and preservation of eyewitness evidence by law enforcement personnel. Previous research has shown that eyewitness identifications are more accurate when obtained using procedures recommended in the NIJ Guide. This experiment assessed whether informing jurors about the Guide can improve their ability to discriminate between eyewitness identifications likely to be accurate and those likely to be inaccurate and, if so, how to most effectively provide jurors with such information. ^ Seven hundred sixteen U.S. citizens who reported for criminal jury duty participated. Half of the participant jurors read a summary of an armed robbery trial in which the police followed the NIJ Guide when obtaining an eyewitness identification of the defendant. The other half read about an identical case in which the police did not follow the Guide. Jurors received information about the Guide from a court-appointed expert witness, one of the attorneys in the case, the trial judge, the judge in combination with one of the attorneys, or from no one (in the control groups). Jurors then rendered a verdict in the case and answered questions about the evidence in the case. ^ When an expert witness or the judge (either alone or in combination with one of the attorneys) informed jurors about the Guide, the jurors voted to convict defendants likely to be guilty and to acquit defendants likely to be innocent more often than did uninformed jurors assigned to a control group. These data suggest that informing jurors about the NIJ Guide using expert testimony or instructions from a judge will improve the quality and accuracy of jurors' verdict decisions in cases involving eyewitness identification evidence. However, more research is needed to determine whether the judge will remain an effective source of information about the Guide in a longer, more detailed trial scenario and to learn more about the underlying psychological processes governing the effects observed in this experiment. ^

Improving civil jury decision-making: Evidentiary and procedural issues

The civil jury has been under attack in recent years for being unreliable and incompetent. Considering the myriad causes for poor civil juror decision-making, the current investigation explores both procedural and evidentiary issues that impact juror's decisions. Specifically, the first phase of this dissertation examines how jurors (mis)use evidence pertaining to the litigants when determining liability and awarding damages. After investigating how jurors utilize evidence, the focus shifts to exploring the utility of procedural reforms designed to improve decision-making (specifically revising the instructions on the laws in the case and bifurcating the damage phases of the trial). Using the results from the first two phases of the research, the final study involves manipulating pieces of evidence related to the litigants while exploring the effects that revising the judicial instructions have on the utilization of evidence in particular and on decision-making in general. ^ This dissertation was run on-line, allowing participants to access the study materials at their convenience. After giving consent, participants read the scenario of a fictitious product liability case with the litigant manipulations incorporated into the summary. Participants answered several attitudinal, case-specific, and comprehension questions, and were instructed to find in favor of one side and award any damages they felt warranted. Exploratory factor analyses, Probit and linear regressions, and path analyses were used to analyze the data (M-plus and SPSS were the software packages used to conduct the analyses). Results indicated that misuse of evidence was fairly frequent, though the mock jurors also utilized evidence appropriately. Although the results did not support bifurcation as a viable procedural reform, revising the judicial instructions did significantly increase comprehension rates. Trends in the data suggested that better decision-making occurred when the revised instructions were used, thus providing empirical support for this procedural reform as a means of improving civil jury decision-making. Implications for actual trials and attorneys are discussed. ^

Jury decision making and the Story Model: How do deliberation style and evidence order influence the story that juries create?

This study investigated the utility of the Story Model for decision making at the jury level by examining the influence of evidence order and deliberation style on story consistency and guilt. Participants were shown a video-taped trial stimulus and then provided case perceptions including a guilt judgment and a narrative about what occurred during the incident. Participants then deliberated for approximately thirty minutes using either an evidence-driven or verdict-driven deliberation style before again providing case perceptions, including a guilt determination, a narrative about what happened during the incident, and an evidence recognition test. Multi-level regression analyses revealed that evidence order, deliberation style and sample interacted to influence both story consistency measures and guilt. Among students, participants in the verdict-driven deliberation condition formed more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the prosecution presented their case in story-order, while participants in the evidence-driven deliberation condition formed more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the defense's case was presented in story-order. Findings were the opposite among community members, with participants in the verdict-driven deliberation condition forming more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the defense's case was presented in story-order, and participants in the evidence-driven deliberation condition forming more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the prosecution's case was presented in story-order. Additionally several story consistency measures influenced guilt decisions. Thus there is some support for the hypothesis that story consistency mediates the influence of evidence order and deliberation style on guilt decisions.

Age differences and conformity in juror decision -making

The purpose of this experiment was to investigate whether older adults conform more than young and middle-aged adults on a juror decision making task. Degree of group pressure, personality characteristics, gender, and social influence processes were also examined.^ Registered voters (208 participants) completed a personality questionnaire. Several weeks later, groups of six participants listened to a robbery case that portrayed the defendant as guilty. Afterwards, participants completed the first of two ballots. On the first, participants rated the defendant's degree of guilt and scored their degree of certainty in this verdict rating. They also indicated in writing which piece of information (a statement of evidence) from the robbery case supported their verdict ratings. Next, participants reviewed photocopies of five contrived first ballots. Then participants completed second ballots, in which they again rated the defendant's degree of guilt and scored their degree of certainty in this verdict rating. Finally, participants rated the importance of the five contrived first ballot verdict ratings (normative social influence) and statements of evidence (informational social influence) in reaching their second ballot verdict ratings.^ The results demonstrated that not only did older adults conform as expected, but all age groups conformed; that is, all age groups changed their verdict ratings. After reviewing the other jurors' contrived first ballots (group pressure), participants rated the defendant as less guilty on their second ballot than on their first. However, only older adults significantly changed their level of certainty in their verdict ratings from first to second ballot compared to young and middle-aged adults. With regard to personality characteristics, only rigidity predicted conformity in young and middle-aged adults but not in older adults. It was also found that females conformed more than males. Finally, all three age groups reported that different social influence processes (normative vs. informational) were important in reaching their second ballot verdict ratings. The results of this research indicate that various factors can influence young, middle-aged, and older adults as they reach verdicts. Knowledge of these factors may help alter stereotypes of older adults in terms of conformity, rigidity, and desirability as jurors. ^

The differential effects of *American and British trial proceedings on juror decision-making

Seven basic elements differentiate British from American trial procedures: confining attorneys to their tables; dealing with objections outside the presence of the jury; resolving disagreements between attorneys prior to objections being made; presenting the defense opening statement at the close of the prosecution case; the judge directly questions witnesses and has a wider latitude in controlling the evidence; and the judge gives a summation of all the evidence presented to the jury (Fulero & Turner, 1997). The present experiment examined the influence of these different courtroom procedures, judges' non-verbal behavior, and evidence strength on juror decision-making. Using models of persuasion to understand how the varying elements may effect juror decision-making, it was predicted that trials following American courtroom procedures would be more distracting for jurors and as such, they would be more likely to rely on the peripheral cue of the judge's expectations for trial outcome as expressed in his nonverbal behavior. In trials following British procedures jurors should be less distracted and better able to scrutinize the strength of the evidence that in turn should minimize the influence of the judge's nonverbal behavior. Two hundred forty-five participants viewed a mock civil trial in which courtroom procedure, judge's nonverbal behavior, and evidence strength were varied. Analyses suggest that courtroom procedure and evidence strength influenced the direction of participants' verdicts, but that judge's nonverbal behavior did not have a direct impact on verdict preference. Judge's nonverbal behavior appeared to influence other measures related to verdict. Participants were more confident in their verdicts when they agreed with judge's nonverbal behavior and when they viewed British courtroom procedures. Participants were more likely to return estimates of the defendant's liability that reflected judge's nonverbal behavior and a congruency with evidence strength. Participants also recalled more facts in the British conditions than in the American conditions. These findings are interpreted as indicating the importance of the impact of trial procedures and of nonverbal influence. ^

Modeling the role of investigator bias, interrogation techniques, and suspect decision -making on the likelihood of confession

The purpose of the current study was to attempt to model various cognitive and social processes that are believed to lead to false confessions. More specifically, this study manipulated the variables of experimenter expectancy, guilt-innocence of the suspect, and interrogation techniques using the Russano et al. (2005) paradigm. The primary measure of interest was the likelihood of the participant signing the confession statement. By manipulating experimenter expectancy, the current study sought to further explore the social interactions that may occur in the interrogation room. In addition, in past experiments, the interrogator has typically been restricted to the use of one or two interrogation techniques. In the present study, interrogators were permitted to select from 15 different interrogation techniques when attempting to solicit a confession from participants. ^ Consistent with Rusanno et al. (2005), guilty participants (94%) were more likely to confess to the act of cheating than innocent participants (31%). The variable of experimenter expectancy did not effect confessions rates, length of interrogation, or the type of interrogation techniques used. Path analysis revealed feelings of pressure and the weighing of consequences on the part of the participant were associated with the signing of the confession statement. The findings suggest the guilt/innocence of the participant, the participant's perceptions of the interrogation situation, and length of interrogation play a pivotal role in the signing of the confession statement. Further examination of these variables may provide researchers with a better understanding of the relationship between interrogations and confessions. ^

Deprofessionalization of curriculum decision -making

The purpose of this study was to analyze the evolution of Florida state level policy efforts and to assess the responding educational policy development and implementation at the local school district level. The focus of this study was the secondary language arts curriculum in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. ^ Data was collected using document analysis as a source of meaning making out of the language sets proffered by agencies at each level. A matrix was created based on Klein's levels of curriculum decision-making and Functional Process Theory categories of policy formation. The matrix allowed the researcher to code and classify specific information in terms accountability/high-stakes testing; authority; outside influences; and operational/structural organization. ^ Federal policy documents provided a background and impetus for much of what originated at the State level. The State then produced policy directives which were accepted by the District and specific policy directives and guidelines for practice. No evidence was found indicating the involvement of any other agencies in the development, transmission or implementation of the State level initiated policies. ^ After analyzing the evolutionary process, it became clear that state policy directives were never challenged or discussed. Rather, they were accepted as standards to be met and as such, school districts complied. Policy implementation is shown to be a top-down phenomenon. No evidence was found indicating a dialogue between state and local systems, rather the state, as the source of authority, issued specifically worded policy directives and the district complied. Finally, this study recognizes that outside influences play an important role in shaping the education reform policy in the state of Florida. The federal government, through NCLB and other initiatives created a climate which led almost naturally to the creation of the Florida A+ Plan. Similarly, the concern of the business community, always interested in the production of competent workers, continued to support efforts at raising the minimum skill level of Florida high school graduates. ^ Suggestions are made for future research including the examination of local school sites in order to assess the overall nature of the school experience rather than rely upon performance indicators mandated by state policy. ^

Deprofessionalization of curriculum decision-making

The purpose of this study was to analyze the evolution of Florida state level policy efforts and to assess the responding educational policy development and implementation at the local school district level. The focus of this study was the secondary language arts curriculum in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. Data was collected using document analysis as a source of meaning making out of the language sets proffered by agencies at each level. A matrix was created based on Klein's levels of curriculum decision-making and Functional Process Theory categories of policy formation. The matrix allowed the researcher to code and classify specific information in terms accountability/high-stakes testing; authority; outside influences; and operational/structural organization. Federal policy documents provided a background and impetus for much of what originated at the State level. The State then produced policy directives which were accepted by the District and specific policy directives and guidelines for practice. No evidence was found indicating the involvement of any other agencies in the development, transmission or implementation of the State level initiated policies. After analyzing the evolutionary process, it became clear that state policy directives were never challenged or discussed. Rather, they were accepted as standards to be met and as such, school districts complied. Policy implementation is shown to be a top-down phenomenon. No evidence was found indicating a dialogue between state and local systems, rather the state, as the source of authority, issued specifically worded policy directives and the district complied. Finally, this study recognizes that outside influences play an important role in shaping the education reform policy in the state of Florida. The federal government, through NCLB and other initiatives created a climate which led almost naturally to the creation of the Florida A+ Plan. Similarly, the concern of the business community, always interested in the production of competent workers, continued to support efforts at raising the minimum skill level of Florida high school graduates. Suggestions are made for future research including the examination of local school sites in order to assess the overall nature of the school experience rather than rely upon performance indicators mandated by state policy.

Valuation of Ecosystem Services for Environmental Decision Making in South Florida

The Greater Everglades system imparts vital ecosystem services (ES) to South Florida residents including high quality drinking water supplies and a habitat for threatened and endangered species. As a result of the altered Everglades system and regional dynamics, restoration may either improve the provision of these services or impose a tradeoff between enhanced environmental goods and services and competing societal demands. The current study aims at understanding public preferences for restoration and generating willingness to pay (WTP) values for restored ES through the implementation of a discrete choice experiment. A previous study (Milon et al., 1999) generated WTP values amongst Floridians of up to $3.42 -$4.07 billion for full restoration over a 10-year period. We have collected data from 2,905 respondents taken from two samples who participated in an online survey designed to elicit the WTP values for selected ecological and social attributes included in the earlier study (Milon et al. 1999). We estimate that the Florida general public is willing to pay up to $854.1- $954.1 million over 10 years to avoid restrictions on their water usage and up to $90.8- $183.7 million over 10 years to restore the hydrological flow within the Water Conservation Area.