Metahistoria nacional y metaficcion biografica en "Historia de Mayta", de Mario Vargas Llosa

The thesis explores Mario Vargas Llosa's Historia de Mayta in light of recent studies of Latin America's new historical novel (Menton, Juan-Navarro) and in connection with contemporary literary theory (Waugh, Stonehill) and new trends in the philosophy of history (White, Foucault). In my study, I focus on three major levels of analysis: (1) significant events in Peruvian history to which the novel alludes; (2) biographical elements that strongly evoke the lives of Ernesto "Che" Guevara, Jacinto Renteria, and Vargas Llosa himself; and (3) the self-referential devices that aim at questioning the validity of empirical analysis in both fiction and history. The allegorical dimension of the novel's view of modern Peruvian politics, its biographical component, and the self-consciousness of its historiographic approach make of Historia de Mayta both a metahistory of Peru and a biographical metafiction. The thesis ultimately reveals the problematic borderline between fiction and reality, the novel and history.

A systems approach to describing the process of individual adoption of IT innovations

Research on the adoption of innovations by individuals has been criticized for focusing on various factors that lead to the adoption or rejection of an innovation while ignoring important aspects of the dynamic process that takes place. Theoretical process-based models hypothesize that individuals go through consecutive stages of information gathering and decision making but do not clearly explain the mechanisms that cause an individual to leave one stage and enter the next one. Research on the dynamics of the adoption process have lacked a structurally formal and quantitative description of the process. ^ This dissertation addresses the adoption process of technological innovations from a Systems Theory perspective and assumes that individuals roam through different, not necessarily consecutive, states, determined by the levels of quantifiable state variables. It is proposed that different levels of these state variables determine the state in which potential adopters are. Various events that alter the levels of these variables can cause individuals to migrate into different states. ^ It was believed that Systems Theory could provide the required infrastructure to model the innovation adoption process, particularly applied to information technologies, in a formal, structured fashion. This dissertation assumed that an individual progressing through an adoption process could be considered a system, where the occurrence of different events affect the system's overall behavior and ultimately the adoption outcome. The research effort aimed at identifying the various states of such system and the significant events that could lead the system from one state to another. By mapping these attributes onto an “innovation adoption state space” the adoption process could be fully modeled and used to assess the status, history, and possible outcomes of a specific adoption process. ^ A group of Executive MBA students were observed as they adopted Internet-based technological innovations. The data collected were used to identify clusters in the values of the state variables and consequently define significant system states. Additionally, events were identified across the student sample that systematically moved the system from one state to another. The compilation of identified states and change-related events enabled the definition of an innovation adoption state-space model. ^

Metahistoria nacional y metaficción biográfica en Historia de Mayta, de Mario Vargas Llosa

The thesis explores Mario Vargas Llosa's Historia de Mayta in light of recent studies of Latin America's new historical novel (Menton, Juan-Navarro) and in connection with contemporary literary theory (Waugh, Stonehill) and new trends in the philosophy of history (White, Foucault). In my study, I focus on three major levels of analysis: 1) significant events in Peruvian history to which the novel alludes; 2) biographical elements that strongly evoke the lives of Ernesto "Che" Guevara, Jacinto Rentería, and Vargas Llosa himself; and 3) the self-referential devices that aim at questioning the validity of empirical analysis in both fiction and history. The allegorical dimension of the novel's view of modern Peruvian politics, its biographical component, and the self-consciousness of its historiographic approach make of Historia de Mayta both a metahistory of Perú and a biographical metafiction. The thesis ultimately reveals the problematic borderline between fiction and reality, the novel and history.

Application of intervention analysis to evaluate the impacts of special events on freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.