Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.

Seasonal plant water uptake patterns in the saline southeast Everglades ecotone

The purpose of this study was to determine the seasonal water use patterns of dominant macrophytes coexisting in the coastal Everglades ecotone. We measured the stable isotope signatures in plant xylem water of Rhizophora mangle, Cladium jamaicense, and Sesuvium portulacastrum during the dry (DS) and wet (WS) seasons in the estuarine ecotone along Taylor River in Everglades National Park, FL, USA. Shallow soilwater and deeper groundwater salinity was also measured to extrapolate the salinity encountered by plants at their rooting zone. Average soil water oxygen isotope ratios (δ 18O) was enriched (4.8 ± 0.2‰) in the DS relative to the WS (0.0 ± 0.1‰), but groundwater δ 18O remained constant between seasons (DS: 2.2 ± 0.4‰; WS: 2.1 ± 0.1‰). There was an inversion in interstitial salinity patterns across the soil profile between seasons. In the DS, shallow water was euhaline [i.e., 43 practical salinity units (PSU)] while groundwater was less saline (18 PSU). In the WS, however, shallow water was fresh (i.e., 0 PSU) but groundwater remained brackish (14 PSU). All plants utilized 100% (shallow) freshwater during the WS, but in the DS R. mangle switched to a soil–groundwater mix (δ 55% groundwater) while C. jamaicense and S. portulacastrum continued to use euhaline shallow water. In the DS, based on δ 18O data, the roots of R. mangle roots were exposed to salinities of 25.4 ± 1.4 PSU, less saline than either C. jamaicense(39.1 ± 2.2 PSU) or S. portulacastrum (38.6 ± 2.5 PSU). Although the salinity tolerance of C. jamaicense is not known, it is unlikely that long-term exposure to high salinity is conducive to the persistence of this freshwater marsh sedge. This study increases our ecological understanding of how water uptake patterns of individual plants can contribute to ecosystem levels changes, not only in the southeast saline Everglades, but also in estuaries in general in response to global sea level rise and human-induced changes in freshwater flows.

Integrated assessment of water conservation practices for sustainable management strategies

Miami-Dade County implemented a series of water conservation programs, which included rebate/exchange incentives to encourage the use of high efficiency aerators (AR), showerheads (SH), toilets (HET) and clothes washers (HEW), to respond to the environmental sustainability issue in urban areas. This study first used panel data analysis of water consumption to evaluate the performance and actual water savings of individual programs. Integrated water demand model has also been developed for incorporating property’s physical characteristics into the water consumption profiles. Life cycle assessment (with emphasis on end-use stage in water system) of water intense appliances was conducted to determine the environmental impacts brought by each practice. Approximately 6 to 10 % of water has been saved in the first and second year of implementation of high efficiency appliances, and with continuing savings in the third and fourth years. Water savings (gallons per household per day) for water efficiency appliances were observed at 28 (11.1%) for SH, 34.7 (13.3%) for HET, and 39.7 (14.5%) for HEW. Furthermore, the estimated contributions of high efficiency appliances for reducing water demand in the integrated water demand model were between 5 and 19% (highest in the AR program). Results indicated that adoption of more than one type of water efficiency appliance could significantly reduce residential water demand. For the sustainable water management strategies, the appropriate water conservation rate was projected to be 1 to 2 million gallons per day (MGD) through 2030. With 2 MGD of water savings, the estimated per capita water use (GPCD) could be reduced from approximately 140 to 122 GPCD. Additional efforts are needed to reduce the water demand to US EPA’s “Water Sense” conservation levels of 70 GPCD by 2030. Life cycle assessment results showed that environmental impacts (water and energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions) from end-use and demand phases are most significant within the water system, particularly due to water heating (73% for clothes washer and 93% for showerhead). Estimations of optimal lifespan for appliances (8 to 21 years) implied that earlier replacement with efficiency models is encouraged in order to minimize the environmental impacts brought by current practice.

Hydro-Meteorology and Water Budget of the Mara River Basin Under Land Use Change Scenarios

Mara is a transboundary river located in Kenya and Tanzania and considered to be an important life line to the inhabitants of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. It is also a source of water for domestic water supply, irrigation, livestock and wildlife. The alarming increase of water demand as well as the decline in the river flow in recent years has been a major challenge for water resource managers and stakeholders. This has necessitated the knowledge of the available water resources in the basin at different times of the year. Historical rainfall, minimum and maximum stream flows were analyzed. Inter and intra-annual variability of trends in streamflow are discussed. Landsat imagery was utilized in order to analyze the land use land cover in the upper Mara River basin. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the basin water balance and understand the hydrologic effect of the recent land use changes from forest-to-agriculture. The results of this study provided the potential hydrological impacts of three land use change scenarios in the upper Mara River basin. It also adds to the existing literature and knowledge base with a view of promoting better land use management practices in the basin.

Analysis of Land Use Change as a Method of Predicting Water Demands in an Urbanizing Environment: Redland, Miami-Dade County, Florida

The fluctuation in water demand in the Redland community of Miami-Dade County was examined using land use data from 2001 and 2011 and water estimation techniques provided by local and state agencies. The data was converted to 30 m mosaicked raster grids that indicated land use change, and associated water demand measured in gallons per day per acre. The results indicate that, first, despite an increase in population, water demand decreased overall in Redland from 2001 to 2011. Second, conversion of agricultural lands to residential lands actually caused a decrease in water demand in most cases while acquisition of farmland by public agencies also caused a sharp decline. Third, conversion of row crops and groves to nurseries was substantial and resulted in a significant increase in water demand in all such areas converted. Finally, estimating water demand based on land use, rather than population, is a more accurate approach.

Dynamics of ecosystem metabolism and flocculent detritus transport in estuarine Taylor River

Estuaries and estuarine wetlands are ecologically and societally important systems, exhibiting high rates of primary production that fuel offshore secondary production. Hydrological processes play a central role in shaping estuarine ecosystem structure and function by controlling nutrient loading and the relative contributions of marine and terrestrial influences on the estuary. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan includes plans to restore freshwater delivery to Taylor Slough, a shallow drainage basin in the southern Everglades, ultimately resulting in increased freshwater flow to the downstream Taylor River estuary. The existing seasonal and inter-annual variability of water flow and source in Taylor River affords the opportunity to investigate relationships between ecosystem function and hydrologic forcing. Estimates of aquatic ecosystem metabolism, derived from free-water, diel changes in dissolved oxygen, were combined with assessments of wetland flocculent detritus quality and transport within the context of seasonal changes in Everglades hydrology. Variation in ecosystem gross primary production and respiration were linked to seasonal changes in estuarine water quality using multiple autoregression models. Furthermore, Taylor River was observed to be net heterotrophic, indicating that an allochthonous source of carbon maintained ecosystem respiration in excess of autochthonous primary production. Wetland-derived detritus appears to be an important vector of energy and nutrients across the Everglades landscape; and in Taylor River, is seasonally flushed into ponded segments of the river where it is then respired. Lastly, seasonal water delivery appears to govern feedbacks regulating water column phosphorus availability in the Taylor River estuary.

Ecohydrology, evapotranspiration and hydrogeochemistry of carbonate mangrove wetlands

Coastal environments can be highly susceptible to environmental changes caused by anthropogenic pressures and natural events. Both anthropogenic and natural perturbations may directly affect the amount and the quality of water flowing through the ecosystem, both in the surface and subsurface and can subsequently, alter ecological communities and functions. The Florida Everglades and the Sian Ka'an Biosphere Reserve (Mexico) are two large ecosystems with an extensive coastal mangrove ecotone that represent a historically altered and pristine environment, respectively. Rising sea levels, climate change, increased water demand, and salt water intrusion are growing concerns in these regions and underlies the need for a better understanding of the present conditions. The goal of my research was to better understand various ecohydrological, environmental, and hydrogeochemical interactions and relationships in carbonate mangrove wetlands. A combination of aqueous geochemical analyses and visible and near-infrared reflectance data were employed to explore relationships between surface and subsurface water chemistry and spectral biophysical stress in mangroves. Optical satellite imagery and field collected meteorological data were used to estimate surface energy and evapotranspiration and measure variability associated with hurricanes and restoration efforts. Furthermore, major ionic and nutrient concentrations, and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen were used to distinguish water sources and infer coastal groundwater discharge by applying the data to a combined principal component analysis-end member mixing model. Spectral reflectance measured at the field and satellite scales were successfully used to estimate surface and subsurface water chemistry and model chloride concentrations along the southern Everglades. Satellite imagery indicated that mangrove sites that have less tidal flushing and hydrogeomorphic heterogeneity tend to have more variable evapotranspiration and soil heat flux in response to storms and restoration. Lastly, water chemistry and multivariate analyses indicated two distinct fresh groundwater sources that discharge to the phosphorus-limited estuaries and bays of the Sian Ka'an Biopshere Reserve; and that coastal groundwater discharge was an important source for phosphorus. The results of the study give us a better understanding of the ecohydrological and hydrogeological processes in carbonate mangrove environments that can be then be extrapolated to similar coastal ecosystems in the Caribbean.