Characterizing Internet worm spatial-temporal infection structures

Since the Morris worm was released in 1988, Internet worms continue to be one of top security threats. For example, the Conficker worm infected 9 to 15 million machines in early 2009 and shut down the service of some critical government and medical networks. Moreover, it constructed a massive peer-to-peer (P2P) botnet. Botnets are zombie networks controlled by attackers setting out coordinated attacks. In recent years, botnets have become the number one threat to the Internet. The objective of this research is to characterize spatial-temporal infection structures of Internet worms, and apply the observations to study P2P-based botnets formed by worm infection. First, we infer temporal characteristics of the Internet worm infection structure, i.e., the host infection time and the worm infection sequence, and thus pinpoint patient zero or initially infected hosts. Specifically, we apply statistical estimation techniques on Darknet observations. We show analytically and empirically that our proposed estimators can significantly improve the inference accuracy. Second, we reveal two key spatial characteristics of the Internet worm infection structure, i.e., the number of children and the generation of the underlying tree topology formed by worm infection. Specifically, we apply probabilistic modeling methods and a sequential growth model. We show analytically and empirically that the number of children has asymptotically a geometric distribution with parameter 0.5, and the generation follows closely a Poisson distribution. Finally, we evaluate bot detection strategies and effects of user defenses in P2P-based botnets formed by worm infection. Specifically, we apply the observations of the number of children and demonstrate analytically and empirically that targeted detection that focuses on the nodes with the largest number of children is an efficient way to expose bots. However, we also point out that future botnets may self-stop scanning to weaken targeted detection, without greatly slowing down the speed of worm infection. We then extend the worm spatial infection structure and show empirically that user defenses, e.g. , patching or cleaning, can significantly mitigate the robustness and the effectiveness of P2P-based botnets. To counterattack, we evaluate a simple measure by future botnets that enhances topology robustness through worm re-infection.

Experimental nutrient enrichment causes complex changes in seagrass, microalgae, and macroalgae community structure in Florida Bay

We evaluated how changes in nutrient supply altered the composition of epiphytic and benthic microalgal communities in a Thalassia testudinum (turtle grass) bed in Florida Bay. We established study plots at four sites in the bay and added nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the sediments in a factorial design. After 18, 24, and 30 months of fertilization we measured the pigment concentrations in the epiphytic and benthic microalgal assemblages using high performance liquid chromatography. Overall, the epiphytic assemblage was P-limited in the eastern portion of the bay, but each phototrophic group displayed unique spatial and temporal responses to N and P addition. Epiphytic chlorophyll a, an indicator of total microalgal load, and epiphytic fucoxanthin, an indicator of diatoms, increased in response to P addition at one eastern bay site, decreased at another eastern bay site, and were not affected by P or N addition at two western bay sites. Epiphytic zeaxanthin, an indicator of the cyanobacteria/coralline red algae complex, and epiphytic chlorophyll b, an indicator of green algae, generally increased in response to P addition at both eastern bay sites but did not respond to P or N addition in the western bay. Benthic chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, fucoxanthin, and zeaxanthin showed complex responses to N and P addition in the eastern bay, suggesting that the benthic assemblage is limited by both N and P. Benthic assemblages in the western bay were variable over time and displayed few responses to N or P addition. The contrasting nutrient limitation patterns between the epiphytic and benthic communities in the eastern bay suggest that altering nutrient input to the bay, as might occur during Everglades restoration, can shift microalgal community structure, which may subsequently alter food web support for upper trophic levels.

Spatial scale and abundance patterns of large fish communities in freshwater marshes of the Florida Everglades

Anthropogenic habitat alterations and water-management practices have imposed an artificial spatial scale onto the once contiguous freshwater marshes of the Florida Everglades. To gain insight into how these changes may affect biotic communities, we examined whether variation in the abundance and community structure of large fishes (SL . 8 cm) in Everglades marshes varied more at regional or intraregional scales, and whether this variation was related to hydroperiod, water depth, floating mat volume, and vegetation density. From October 1997 to October 2002, we used an airboat electrofisher to sample large fishes at sites within three regions of the Everglades. Each of these regions is subject to unique watermanagement schedules. Dry-down events (water depth , 10 cm) occurred at several sites during spring in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002. The 2001 dry-down event was the most severe and widespread. Abundance of several fishes decreased significantly through time, and the number of days post-dry-down covaried significantly with abundance for several species. Processes operating at the regional scale appear to play important roles in regulating large fishes. The most pronounced patterns in abundance and community structure occurred at the regional scale, and the effect size for region was greater than the effect size for sites nested within region for abundance of all species combined, all predators combined, and each of the seven most abundant species. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling revealed distinct groupings of sites corresponding to the three regions. We also found significant variation in community structure through time that correlated with the number of days post-dry-down. Our results suggest that hydroperiod and water management at the regional scale influence large fish communities of Everglades marshes.

Population structure of spotted sunfish (Lepomis punctatus) in the Florida Everglades as revealed by DNA microsatellite analysis

Genetic diversity can be used to describe patterns of gene flow within and between local and regional populations. The Florida Everglades experiences seasonal fluctuations in water level that can influence local population extinction and recolonization dynamics. In addition, this expansive wetland has been divided into water management regions by canals and levees. These combined factors can affect genetic diversity and population structure of aquatic organisms in the Everglades. We analyzed allelic variation at six DNA microsatellite loci to examine the population structure of spotted sunfish (Lepomis punctatus) from the Everglades. We tested the hypothesis that recurrent local extinction and recent regional divisions have had an effect on patterns of genetic diversity. No marked differences were observed in comparisons of the heterozygosity values of sites within and among water management units. No evidence of isolation by distance was detected in a gene flow and distance correlation between subpopulations. Confidence intervals for the estimated F-statistic values crossed zero, indicating that there was no significant genetic difference between subpopulations within a region or between regions. Notably, the genetic variation among subpopulations in a water conservation area was greater than variation among regions (Fsp>FPT). These data indicate that the spatial scale of recolonization following local extinction appears to be most important within water management units.

Nutrient effects on seagrass epiphyte community structure in Florida Bay

A field experiment was employed in Florida Bay investigating the response of seagrass epiphyte communities to nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) additions. While most of the variability in epiphyte community structure was related to uncontrolled temporal and spatial environmental heterogeneity, P additions increased the relative abundance of the red algae–cyanobacterial complex and green algae, with a concomitant decrease in diatoms. When N was added along with P, the observed changes to the diatoms and the red algae–cyanobacterial complex were in the same direction as P-only treatments, but the responses were decreased in magnitude. Within the diatom community, species relative abundances, species richness, and diversity responded weakly to nutrient addition. P additions produced changes in diatom community structure that were limited to summer and were stronger in eastern Florida Bay than in the western bay. These changes were consistent with well-established temporal and spatial patterns of P limitation. Despite the significant change in community structure resulting from P addition, diatom communities from the same site and time, regardless of nutrient treatment, remained more similar to one another than to the diatom communities subject to identical nutrient treatments from different sites and times. Overall, epiphyte communities exhibited responses to P addition that were most evident at the division level.

Spatial and seasonal variability in elemental content, δ13C, and δ15N ofThalassia testudinum from South Florida and its implications for ecosystem studies

Elemental and isotopic composition of leaves of the seagrassThalassia testudinum was highly variable across the 10,000 km2 and 8 years of this study. The data reported herein expand the reported range in carbon:nitrogen (C:N) and carbon:phosphorus (C:P) ratios and δ13C and δ15N values reported for this species worldwide; 13.2–38.6 for C:N and 411–2,041 for C:P. The 981 determinations in this study generated a range of −13.5‰ to −5.2‰ for δ13C and −4.3‰ to 9.4‰ for δ15N. The elemental and isotope ratios displayed marked seasonality, and the seasonal patterns could be described with a simple sine wave model. C:N, C:P, δ13C, and δ15N values all had maxima in the summer and minima in the winter. Spatial patterns in the summer maxima of these quantities suggest there are large differences in the relative availability of N and P across the study area and that there are differences in the processing and the isotopic composition of C and N. This work calls into question the interpretation of studies about nutrient cycling and food webs in estuaries based on few samples collected at one time, since we document natural variability greater than the signal often used to imply changes in the structure or function of ecosystems. The data and patterns presented in this paper make it clear that there is no threshold δ15N value for marine plants that can be used as an unambiguous indicator of human sewage pollution without a thorough understanding of local temporal and spatial variability.

Spatial patterns of fish communities along two estuarine gradients in southern Florida

In tropical and subtropical estuaries, gradients of primary productivity and salinity are generally invoked to explain patterns in community structure and standing crops of fishes. We documented spatial and temporal patterns in fish community structure and standing crops along salinity and nutrient gradients in two subtropical drainages of Everglades National Park, USA. The Shark River drains into the Gulf of Mexico and experiences diurnal tides carrying relatively nutrient enriched waters, while Taylor River is more hydrologically isolated by the oligohaline Florida Bay and experiences no discernable lunar tides. We hypothesized that the more nutrient enriched system would support higher standing crops of fishes in its mangrove zone. We collected 50 species of fish from January 2000 to April 2004 at six sampling sites spanning fresh to brackish salinities in both the Shark and Taylor River drainages. Contrary to expectations, we observed lower standing crops and density of fishes in the more nutrient rich tidal mangrove forest of the Shark River than in the less nutrient rich mangrove habitats bordering the Taylor River. Tidal mangrove habitats in the Shark River were dominated by salt-tolerant fish and displayed lower species richness than mangrove communities in the Taylor River, which included more freshwater taxa and yielded relatively higher richness. These differences were maintained even after controlling for salinity at the time of sampling. Small-scale topographic relief differs between these two systems, possibly created by tidal action in the Shark River. We propose that this difference in topography limits movement of fishes from upstream marshes into the fringing mangrove forest in the Shark River system, but not the Taylor River system. Understanding the influence of habitat structure, including connectivity, on aquatic communities is important to anticipate effects of construction and operational alternatives associated with restoration of the Everglades ecosystem.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Mesozooplankton in a Shallow Sub-Tropical Bay: Influence of Top-Down Control

Quantifying the relationship between mesozooplankton and water quality parameters identifies the factors that structure the mesozooplankton community and can be used to generate hypotheses regarding the mechanisms that control the mesozooplankton population and potentially the trophic network. To investigate this relationship, mesozooplankton and water quality data were collected in Florida Bay from 1994 to 2004. Three key characteristics were found in the mesozooplankton community structure: (1) there are significant differences between the four sub-regions of Florida Bay; (2) there is a break in May of 1997 with significant differences before and after this date; and (3) there is a positive correlation between mesozooplankton abundance and salinity. The latter two characteristics are closely correlated with predator abundance, indicating the importance of top-down control. Hypersaline periods appear to provide a refuge from predators, allowing mesozooplankton to increase in abundance despite the increased physiological stress.

Spatiotemporal patterns in community structure of macroinvertebrates inhabiting calcareous periphyton mats

Calcareous floating periphyton mats in the southern Everglades provide habitat for a diverse macroinvertebrate community that has not been well characterized. Our study described this community in an oligotrophic marsh, compared it with the macroinvertebrate community associated with adjacent epiphytic algae attached to macrophytes in the water column, and detected spatial patterns in density and community structure. The floating periphyton mat (floating mat) and epiphytic algae in the water column (submerged epiphyton) were sampled at 4 sites (1 km apart) in northern Shark River Slough, Everglades National Park (ENP), in the early (July) and late (November) wet season. Two perpendicular 90-m transects were established at each site and 100 samples were taken in a nested design. Sites were located in wet-prairie spikerush-dominated sloughs with similar water depths and emergent macrophyte communities. Floating mats were sampled by taking cores (6-cm diameter) that were sorted under magnification to enumerate infauna retained on a 250-μm-mesh sieve and with a maximum dimension >1 mm. Our results showed that floating mats provide habitat for a macroinvertebrate community with higher densities (no. animals/g ash-free dry mass) of Hyalella azteca, Dasyhelea spp., and Cladocera, and lower densities of Chironomidae and Planorbella spp. than communities associated with submerged epiphyton. Densities of the most common taxa increased 3× to 15× from early to late wet season, and community differences between the 2 habitat types became more pronounced. Floating-mat coverage and estimated floating-mat biomass increased 20 to 30% and 30 to 110%, respectively, at most sites in the late wet season. Some intersite variation was observed in individual taxa, but no consistent spatial pattern in any taxon was detected at any scale (from 0.2 m to 3 km). Floating mats and their resident macroinvertebrate communities are important components in the Everglades food web. This community should be included in environmental monitoring programs because degradation and eventual loss of the calcareous periphyton mat is associated with P enrichment in this ecosystem.

Temporal Population Genetic Structure of Eastern Mosquitofish in a Dynamic Aquatic Landscape

We analyzed the effect of periodic drying in the Florida Everglades on spatiotemporal population genetic structure of eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki). Severe periodic drying events force individuals from disparate sources to mix in dry season relatively deep-water refuges. In 1996 (a wet year) and 1999 (a dry year), we sampled mosquitofish at 20 dry-season refuges distributed in 3 water management regions and characterized genetic variation for 10 allozyme and 3 microsatellite loci. In 1996, most of the ecosystem did not dry, whereas in 1999, many of our sampling locations were isolated by expanses of dried marsh surface. In 1996, most spatial genetic variation was attributed to heterogeneity within regions. In 1999, spatial genetic variation within regions was not significant. In both years, a small but significant amount of variation (less than 1% of the total variation) was partitioned among regions. Variance was consistently greater than zero among long-hydroperiod sites within a region, but not among short-hydroperiod sites within a region, where hydroperiod was measured as time since last marsh surface dry-down forcing fishes into local refuges. In 1996, all sites were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. In 1999, we observed fewer heterozygotes than expected for most loci and sites suggesting a Wahlund effect arising from fish leaving areas that dried and mixing in deep-water refuges.

Regional processes in mangrove ecosystems: spatial scaling relationships, biomass, and turnover rates following catastrophic disturbance

Physiological processes and local-scale structural dynamics of mangroves are relatively well studied. Regional-scale processes, however, are not as well understood. Here we provide long-term data on trends in structure and forest turnover at a large scale, following hurricane damage in mangrove ecosystems of South Florida, U.S.A. Twelve mangrove vegetation plots were monitored at periodic intervals, between October 1992 and March 2005. Mangrove forests of this region are defined by a −1.5 scaling relationship between mean stem diameter and stem density, mirroring self-thinning theory for mono-specific stands. This relationship is reflected in tree size frequency scaling exponents which, through time, have exhibited trends toward a community average that is indicative of full spatial resource utilization. These trends, together with an asymptotic standing biomass accumulation, indicate that coastal mangrove ecosystems do adhere to size-structured organizing principles as described for upland tree communities. Regenerative dynamics are different between areas inside and outside of the primary wind-path of Hurricane Andrew which occurred in 1992. Forest dynamic turnover rates, however, are steady through time. This suggests that ecological, more-so than structural factors, control forest productivity. In agreement, the relative mean rate of biomass growth exhibits an inverse relationship with the seasonal range of porewater salinities. The ecosystem average in forest scaling relationships may provide a useful investigative tool of mangrove community biomass relationships, as well as offer a robust indicator of general ecosystem health for use in mangrove forest ecosystem management and restoration.

Effects of an extreme temperature event on the behavior and age structure of an estuarine top predator, Carcharhinus leucas

The frequency of extreme environmental events is predicted to increase in the future. Understanding the short- and long-term impacts of these extreme events on large-bodied predators will provide insight into the spatial and temporal scales at which acute environmental disturbances in top-down processes may persist within and across ecosystems. Here, we use long-term studies of movements and age structure of an estuarine top predator—juvenile bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas—to identify the effects of an extreme ‘cold snap’ from 2 to 13 January 2010 over short (weeks) to intermediate (months) time scales. Juvenile bull sharks are typically year-round residents of the Shark River Estuary until they reach 3 to 5 yr of age. However, acoustic telemetry revealed that almost all sharks either permanently left the system or died during the cold snap. For 116 d after the cold snap, no sharks were detected in the system with telemetry or captured during longline sampling. Once sharks returned, both the size structure and abundance of the individuals present in the nursery had changed considerably. During 2010, individual longlines were 70% less likely to capture any sharks, and catch rates on successful longlines were 40% lower than during 2006−2009. Also, all sharks caught after the cold snap were young-of-the-year or neonates, suggesting that the majority of sharks in the estuary were new recruits and several cohorts had been largely lost from the nursery. The longer-term impacts of this change in bull shark abundance to the trophic dynamics of the estuary and the importance of episodic disturbances to bull shark population dynamics will require continued monitoring, but are of considerable interest because of the ecological roles of bull sharks within coastal estuaries and oceans.

Metacommunity Structure Along Resource and Disturbance Gradients in Everglades Wetlands

We evaluated metacommunity hypotheses of landscape arrangement (indicative of dispersal limitation) and environmental gradients (hydroperiod and nutrients) in structuring macroinvertebrate and fish communities in the southern Everglades. We used samples collected at sites from the eastern boundary of the southern Everglades and from Shark River Slough, to evaluate the role of these factors in metacommunity structure. We used eigenfunction spatial analysis to model community structure among sites and distance-based redundancy analysis to partition the variability in communities between spatial and environmental filters. For most animal communities, hydrological parameters had a greater influence on structure than nutrient enrichment, however both had large effects. The influence of spatial effects indicative of dispersal limitation was weak and only periphyton infauna appeared to be limited by regional dispersal. At the landscape scale, communities were well-mixed, but strongly influenced by hydrology. Local-scale species dominance was influenced by water-permanence and nutrient enrichment. Nutrient enrichment is limited to water inflow points associated with canals, which may explain its impact in this data set. Hydroperiod and nutrient enrichment are controlled by water managers; our analysis indicates that the decisions they make have strong effects on the communities at the base of the Everglades food web.

Land-cover detection and landscape structure analysis in the Pachitea Basin, Peruvian Amazon

Classification procedures, including atmospheric correction satellite images as well as classification performance utilizing calibration and validation at different levels, have been investigated in the context of a coarse land-cover classification scheme for the Pachitea Basin. Two different correction methods were tested against no correction in terms of reflectance correction towards a common response for pseudo-invariant features (PIF). The accuracy of classifications derived from each of the three methods was then assessed in a discriminant analysis using crossvalidation at pixel, polygon, region, and image levels. Results indicate that only regression adjusted images using PIFs show no significant difference between images in any of the bands. A comparison of classifications at different levels suggests though that at pixel, polygon, and region levels the accuracy of the classifications do not significantly differ between corrected and uncorrected images. Spatial patterns of land-cover were analyzed in terms of colonization history, infrastructure, suitability of the land, and landownership. The actual use of the land is driven mainly by the ability to access the land and markets as is obvious in the distribution of land cover as a function of distance to rivers and roads. When considering all rivers and roads a threshold distance at which disproportional agro-pastoral land cover switches from over represented to under represented is at about 1km. Best land use suggestions seem not to affect the choice of land use. Differences in abundance of land cover between watersheds are more prevailing than differences between colonist and indigenous groups.