Projected Reorganization of Florida Bay Seagrass Communities in Response to the Increased Freshwater Inflow of Everglades Restoration

Historic changes in water-use management in the Florida Everglades have caused the quantity of freshwater inflow to Florida Bay to decline by approximately 60% while altering its timing and spatial distribution. Two consequences have been (1) increased salinity throughout the bay, including occurrences of hypersalinity, coupled with a decrease in salinity variability, and (2) change in benthic habitat structure. Restoration goals have been proposed to return the salinity climates (salinity and its variability) of Florida Bay to more estuarine conditions through changes in upstream water management, thereby returning seagrass species cover to a more historic state. To assess the potential for meeting those goals, we used two modeling approaches and long-term monitoring data. First, we applied the hydrological mass balance model FATHOM to predict salinity climate changes in sub-basins throughout the bay in response to a broad range of freshwater inflow from the Everglades. Second, because seagrass species exhibit different sensitivities to salinity climates, we used the FATHOM-modeled salinity climates as input to a statistical discriminant function model that associates eight seagrass community types with water quality variables including salinity, salinity variability, total organic carbon, total phosphorus, nitrate, and ammonium, as well as sediment depth and light reaching the benthos. Salinity climates in the western sub-basins bordering the Gulf of Mexico were insensitive to even the largest (5-fold) modeled increases in freshwater inflow. However, the north, northeastern, and eastern sub-basins were highly sensitive to freshwater inflow and responded to comparatively small increases with decreased salinity and increased salinity variability. The discriminant function model predicted increased occurrences ofHalodule wrightii communities and decreased occurrences of Thalassia testudinum communities in response to the more estuarine salinity climates. The shift in community composition represents a return to the historically observed state and suggests that restoration goals for Florida Bay can be achieved through restoration of freshwater inflow from the Everglades.

Forecasting Responses of Seagrass Distributions to Changing Water Quality Using Monitoring Data

Extensive data sets on water quality and seagrass distributions in Florida Bay have been assembled under complementary, but independent, monitoring programs. This paper presents the landscape-scale results from these monitoring programs and outlines a method for exploring the relationships between two such data sets. Seagrass species occurrence and abundance data were used to define eight benthic habitat classes from 677 sampling locations in Florida Bay. Water quality data from 28 monitoring stations spread across the Bay were used to construct a discriminant function model that assigned a probability of a given benthic habitat class occurring for a given combination of water quality variables. Mean salinity, salinity variability, the amount of light reaching the benthos, sediment depth, and mean nutrient concentrations were important predictor variables in the discriminant function model. Using a cross-validated classification scheme, this discriminant function identified the most likely benthic habitat type as the actual habitat type in most cases. The model predicted that the distribution of benthic habitat types in Florida Bay would likely change if water quality and water delivery were changed by human engineering of freshwater discharge from the Everglades. Specifically, an increase in the seasonal delivery of freshwater to Florida Bay should cause an expansion of seagrass beds dominated by Ruppia maritima and Halodule wrightii at the expense of the Thalassia testudinum-dominated community that now occurs in northeast Florida Bay. These statistical techniques should prove useful for predicting landscape-scale changes in community composition in diverse systems where communities are in quasi-equilibrium with environmental drivers.

Correspondence of historic salinity fluctuations in Florida Bay, USA, to atmospheric variability and anthropogenic changes

Florida Bay is a highly dynamic estuary that exhibits wide natural fluctuations in salinity due to changes in the balance of precipitation, evaporation and freshwater runoff from the mainland. Rapid and large-scale modification of freshwater flow and construction of transportation conduits throughout the Florida Keys during the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries reshaped water circulation and salinity patterns across the ecosystem. In order to determine long-term patterns in salinity variation across the Florida Bay estuary, we used a diatom-based salinity transfer function to infer salinity within 3.27 ppt root mean square error of prediction from diatom assemblages from four ~130 year old sediment records. Sites were distributed along a gradient of exposure to anthropogenic shifts in the watershed and salinity. Precipitation was found to be the primary driver influencing salinity fluctuations over the entire record, but watershed modifications on the mainland and in the Florida Keys during the late-1800s and 1900s were the most likely cause of significant shifts in baseline salinity. The timing of these shifts in the salinity baseline varies across the Bay: that of the northeastern coring location coincides with the construction of the Florida Overseas Railway (AD 1906–1916), while that of the east-central coring location coincides with the drainage of Lake Okeechobee (AD 1881–1894). Subsequent decreases occurring after the 1960s (east-central region) and early 1980s (southwestern region) correspond to increases in freshwater delivered through water control structures in the 1950s–1970s and again in the 1980s. Concomitant increases in salinity in the northeastern and south-central regions of the Bay in the mid-1960s correspond to an extensive drought period and the occurrence of three major hurricanes, while the drop in the early 1970s could not be related to any natural event. This paper provides information about major factors influencing salinity conditions in Florida Bay in the past and quantitative estimates of the pre- and post-South Florida watershed modification salinity levels in different regions of the Bay. This information should be useful for environmental managers in setting restoration goals for the marine ecosystems in South Florida, especially for Florida Bay.

Responses of sawgrass and spikerush to variation in hydrologic drivers and salinity in Southern Everglades marshes

Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) by the dominant macrophyte and plant community composition are related to the changing hydrologic environment and to salinity in the southern Everglades, FL, USA. We present a new non-destructive ANPP technique that is applicable to any continuously growing herbaceous system. Data from 16 sites, collected from 1998 to 2004, were used to investigate how hydrology and salinity controlled sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense Crantz.) ANPP. Sawgrass live biomass showed little seasonal variation and annual means ranged from 89 to 639 gdw m)2. Mortality rates were 20–35% of live biomass per 2 month sampling interval, for biomass turnover rates of 1.3–2.5 per year. Production by C. jamaicense was manifest primarily as biomass turnover, not as biomass accumulation. Rates typically ranged from 300 to 750 gdw m)2 year)1, but exceeded 1000 gdw m)2 year)1 at one site and were as high as 750 gdw m)2 year)1 at estuarine ecotone sites. Production was negatively related to mean annual water depth, hydroperiod, and to a variable combining the two (depth-days). As water depths and hydroperiods increased in our southern Everglades study area, sawgrass ANPP declined. Because a primary restoration goal is to increase water depths and hydroperiods for some regions of the Everglades, we investigated how the plant community responded to this decline in sawgrass ANPP. Spikerush (Eleocharis sp.) was the next most prominent component of this community at our sites, and 39% of the variability in sawgrass ANPP was explained by a negative relationship with mean annual water depth, hydroperiod, and Eleocharis sp. density the following year. Sawgrass ANPP at estuarine ecotone sites responded negatively to salinity, and rates of production were slow to recover after high salinity years. Our results suggest that ecologists, managers, and the public should not necessarily interpret a decline in sawgrass that may result from hydrologic restoration as a negative phenomenon.

Phosphorus Availability and Salinity Control Productivity and Demography of the Seagrass Thalassia testudinum in Florida Bay

Biomass, net primary productivity (NPP), foliar elemental content, and demography of Thalassia testudinum were monitored in populations from five sites across Florida Bay beginning in January 2001. Sites were selected to take advantage of the spatial variability in phosphorus (P) availability and salinity climates across the bay. Aboveground biomass and NPP of T. testudinum were determined five to six times annually. Short-shoot demography, belowground biomass, and belowground NPP were assessed from a single destructive harvest at each site and short-shoot cohorts were estimated from leaf scar counts multiplied by site-specific leaf production rates. Biomass, relative growth rate (RGR), and overall NPP were positively correlated with P availability. Additionally, a positive correlation between P availability and the ratio of photosynthetic to non-photosynthetic biomass suggests that T. testudinum increases allocation to aboveground biomass as P availability increases. Population turnover increased with P availability, evident in positive correlations of recruitment and mortality rates with P availability. Departures from seasonally modeled estimates of RGR were found to be influenced by salinity, which depressed RGR when below 20 psu or above 40 psu. Freshwater management in the headwaters of Florida Bay will alter salinity and nutrient climates. It is becoming clear that such changes will affect T. testudinum, with likely feedbacks on ecosystem structure, function, and habitat quality.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Mesozooplankton in a Shallow Sub-Tropical Bay: Influence of Top-Down Control

Quantifying the relationship between mesozooplankton and water quality parameters identifies the factors that structure the mesozooplankton community and can be used to generate hypotheses regarding the mechanisms that control the mesozooplankton population and potentially the trophic network. To investigate this relationship, mesozooplankton and water quality data were collected in Florida Bay from 1994 to 2004. Three key characteristics were found in the mesozooplankton community structure: (1) there are significant differences between the four sub-regions of Florida Bay; (2) there is a break in May of 1997 with significant differences before and after this date; and (3) there is a positive correlation between mesozooplankton abundance and salinity. The latter two characteristics are closely correlated with predator abundance, indicating the importance of top-down control. Hypersaline periods appear to provide a refuge from predators, allowing mesozooplankton to increase in abundance despite the increased physiological stress.

Impact of Late Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence from diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Impact of Late Holocene Climate Variability and Anthropogenic Activities on Biscayne Bay (Florida, U.S.A.): Evidence From Diatoms

Shallow marine ecosystems are experiencing significant environmental alterations as a result of changing climate and increasing human activities along coasts. Intensive urbanization of the southeast Florida coast and intensification of climate change over the last few centuries changed the character of coastal ecosystems in the semi-enclosed Biscayne Bay, Florida. In order to develop management policies for the Bay, it is vital to obtain reliable scientific evidence of past ecological conditions. The long-term records of subfossil diatoms obtained from No Name Bank and Featherbed Bank in the Central Biscayne Bay, and from the Card Sound Bank in the neighboring Card Sound, were used to study the magnitude of the environmental change caused by climate variability and water management over the last ~ 600 yr. Analyses of these records revealed that the major shifts in the diatom assemblage structures at No Name Bank occurred in 1956, at Featherbed Bank in 1966, and at Card Sound Bank in 1957. Smaller magnitude shifts were also recorded at Featherbed Bank in 1893, 1942, 1974 and 1983. Most of these changes coincided with severe drought periods that developed during the cold phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), or when AMO was in warm phase and PDO was in the cold phase. Only the 1983 change coincided with an unusually wet period that developed during the warm phases of ENSO and PDO. Quantitative reconstructions of salinity using the weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) diatom-based salinity model revealed a gradual increase in salinity at the three coring locations over the last ~ 600 yr, which was primarily caused by continuously rising sea level and in the last several decades also by the reduction of the amount of freshwater inflow from the mainland. Concentration of sediment total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) increased in the second half of the 20th century, which coincided with the construction of canals, landfills, marinas and water treatment plants along the western margin of Biscayne Bay. Increased magnitude and rate of the diatom assemblage restructuring in the mid- and late-1900s, suggest that large environmental changes are occurring more rapidly now than in the past.

Evidence of climate variability and tropical cyclone activity from diatom assemblage dynamics in coastal southwest Florida

Estuaries are dynamic on many spatial and temporal scales. Distinguishing effects of unpredictable events from cyclical patterns can be challenging but important to predict the influence of press and pulse drivers in the face of climate change. Diatom assemblages respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions and characterize change on multiple time scales. The goals of this research were to 1) characterize diatom assemblages in the Charlotte Harbor watershed, their relationships with water quality parameters, and how they change in response to climate; and 2) use assemblages in sediment cores to interpret past climate changes and tropical cyclone activity. ^ Diatom assemblages had strong relationships with salinity and nutrient concentrations, and a quantitative tool was developed to reconstruct past values of these parameters. Assemblages were stable between the wet and dry seasons, and were more similar to each other than to assemblages found following a tropical cyclone. Diatom assemblages following the storm showed a decrease in dispersion among sites, a pattern that was consistent on different spatial scales but may depend on hydrological management regimes. ^ Analysis of sediment cores from two southwest Florida estuaries showed that locally-developed diatom inference models can be applied with caution on regional scales. Large-scale climate changes were suggested by environmental reconstructions in both estuaries, but with slightly different temporal pacing. Estimates of salinity and nutrient concentrations suggested that major hydrological patterns changed at approximately 5.5 and 3 kyrs BP. A highly temporally-resolved sediment core from Charlotte Harbor provided evidence for past changes that correspond with known climate records. Diatom assemblages had significant relationships with the three-year average index values of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Assemblages that predicted low salinity and high total phosphorus also had the lowest dispersion and corresponded with some major storms in the known record, which together may provide a proxy for evidence of severe storms in the paleoecological record. ^