A diagnostic framework for demand amplification problems in supply chains

This dissertation delivers a framework to diagnose the Bull-Whip Effect (BWE) in supply chains and then identify methods to minimize it. Such a framework is needed because in spite of the significant amount of literature discussing the bull-whip effect, many companies continue to experience the wide variations in demand that are indicative of the bull-whip effect. While the theory and knowledge of the bull-whip effect is well established, there still is the lack of an engineering framework and method to systematically identify the problem, diagnose its causes, and identify remedies. ^ The present work seeks to fill this gap by providing a holistic, systems perspective to bull-whip identification and diagnosis. The framework employs the SCOR reference model to examine the supply chain processes with a baseline measure of demand amplification. Then, research of the supply chain structural and behavioral features is conducted by means of the system dynamics modeling method. ^ The contribution of the diagnostic framework, is called Demand Amplification Protocol (DAMP), relies not only on the improvement of existent methods but also contributes with original developments introduced to accomplish successful diagnosis. DAMP contributes a comprehensive methodology that captures the dynamic complexities of supply chain processes. The method also contributes a BWE measurement method that is suitable for actual supply chains because of its low data requirements, and introduces a BWE scorecard for relating established causes to a central BWE metric. In addition, the dissertation makes a methodological contribution to the analysis of system dynamic models with a technique for statistical screening called SS-Opt, which determines the inputs with the greatest impact on the bull-whip effect by means of perturbation analysis and subsequent multivariate optimization. The dissertation describes the implementation of the DAMP framework in an actual case study that exposes the approach, analysis, results and conclusions. The case study suggests a balanced solution between costs and demand amplification can better serve both firms and supply chain interests. Insights pinpoint to supplier network redesign, postponement in manufacturing operations and collaborative forecasting agreements with main distributors.^

Anti-diarrheal plants of central Anatolia: Do they inhibit diarrhea-causing bacteria?

Infectious diarrhea results in 2 to 5 million deaths worldwide per year, and treatments that are safe, effective, and readily available are under investigation. The field of medicinal ethnobotany focuses on plants that are used by different cultural groups for treating various diseases and evaluates these plants for efficacy and cytotoxicity. In the present study, ethnobotanical research was conducted with Central Anatolian villagers in Turkey. Folk concepts and etiologies surrounding diarrhea were analyzed, as were salient plant-based remedies for diarrhea. Reviewing the literature, 91 plant species were described as anti-diarrheal in all of Turkey. In Central Anatolia, villagers described 35 species. For continued research via bactericidal and bacteriostatic bioassays, 15 plants were selected. Methanolic and aqueous extracts of medicinally used plant parts were evaluated for inhibitory properties against 10 diarrhea-causing bacteria in the first bioassay, and later 21 bacteria in a second assay utilizing spectrophotometry. The cytotoxic properties were also evaluated in an Alamar Blue Assay using HepG-2, PC-3, and SkMEL-5 human cell lines. While several extracts showed bactericidal and bacteriostatic properties, the methanolic extract of R. canina galls inhibited the most bacteria at the lowest concentrations. They were not cytotoxic. Thus, R. canina methanolic gall extracts were selected for bio-assay guided fractionation. Antibacterial activity was maintained in the third fraction which was composed of almost pure ellagic acid. The bioassay was repeated with standard ellagic acid, and the polyphenol retained potency in inhibiting multiple bacterial strains. Several other extracts showed promise for safe, effective anti-bacterial remedies for diarrhea.

Development and verification of control and protection strategies in hybrid AC/DC power systems for smart grid applications

Modern power networks incorporate communications and information technology infrastructure into the electrical power system to create a smart grid in terms of control and operation. The smart grid enables real-time communication and control between consumers and utility companies allowing suppliers to optimize energy usage based on price preference and system technical issues. The smart grid design aims to provide overall power system monitoring, create protection and control strategies to maintain system performance, stability and security. This dissertation contributed to the development of a unique and novel smart grid test-bed laboratory with integrated monitoring, protection and control systems. This test-bed was used as a platform to test the smart grid operational ideas developed here. The implementation of this system in the real-time software creates an environment for studying, implementing and verifying novel control and protection schemes developed in this dissertation. Phasor measurement techniques were developed using the available Data Acquisition (DAQ) devices in order to monitor all points in the power system in real time. This provides a practical view of system parameter changes, system abnormal conditions and its stability and security information system. These developments provide valuable measurements for technical power system operators in the energy control centers. Phasor Measurement technology is an excellent solution for improving system planning, operation and energy trading in addition to enabling advanced applications in Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC). Moreover, a virtual protection system was developed and implemented in the smart grid laboratory with integrated functionality for wide area applications. Experiments and procedures were developed in the system in order to detect the system abnormal conditions and apply proper remedies to heal the system. A design for DC microgrid was developed to integrate it to the AC system with appropriate control capability. This system represents realistic hybrid AC/DC microgrids connectivity to the AC side to study the use of such architecture in system operation to help remedy system abnormal conditions. In addition, this dissertation explored the challenges and feasibility of the implementation of real-time system analysis features in order to monitor the system security and stability measures. These indices are measured experimentally during the operation of the developed hybrid AC/DC microgrids. Furthermore, a real-time optimal power flow system was implemented to optimally manage the power sharing between AC generators and DC side resources. A study relating to real-time energy management algorithm in hybrid microgrids was performed to evaluate the effects of using energy storage resources and their use in mitigating heavy load impacts on system stability and operational security.

An ethnopharmacological approach to multidrug -resistant Staphylococcus aureus: Evaluation of Italian plants used in the traditional healing of skin disease

One-third of botanical remedies from southern Italy are used to treat skin and soft tissue infections (SST's). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), a common cause of SSTIs, is responsible for increased morbidity and mortality from infections. Therapeutic options are limited by antibiotic resistance. Many plants possess potent antimicrobial compounds for these disorders. Validation of traditional medical practices is important for the people who rely on medicinal plants. Moreover, identification of novel antibiotics and anti-pathogenic agents for MRSA is important to global healthcare.^ I took an ethnopharmacological approach to understand how Italian medicinal plants used for the treatment of SSTIs affect MRSA growth and virulence. My hypothesis was that plants used in folk remedies for SSTI would exhibit lower cytotoxicity and greater inhibition of bacterial growth, biofilm formation and toxin production in MRSA than plants used for remedies unrelated to the skin or for plants with no ethnomedical application. The field portion of my research was conducted in the Vulture-Alto Bradano area of southern Italy. I collected 104 plant species and created 168 crude extracts. In the lab, I screened samples for activity against MRSA in a battery of bioassays. Growth inhibition was analyzed using broth microtiter assays for determination of the minimum inhibitory concentration. Interference with quorum-sensing (QS) processes, which mediate pathogenicity, was quantified through RP-HPLC of δ-toxin production. Interference with biofilm formation and adherence was assessed using staining methods. The mammalian cytotoxicity of natural products was analyzed using MTT cell proliferation assay techniques.^ Although bacteriostatic activity was limited, extracts from six plants used in Italian folk medicine (Arundo donax, Ballota nigra, Juglans regia, Leopoldia comosa, Marrubium vulgare, and Rubus ulmifolius ) significantly inhibited biofilm formation and adherence. Moreover, plants used to treat SSTI demonstrated significantly greater anti-biofilm activity when compared to plants with no ethnomedical application. QSI activity was evident in 90% of the extracts tested and extracts from four plants ( Ballota nigra, Castanea saliva, Rosmarinus officinalis, and Sambucus ebulus) exhibited a significant dose-dependent response. Some of the plant remedies for SSTI identified in this study can be validated due to anti-MRSA activity.^

Development and Verification of Control and Protection Strategies in Hybrid AC/DC Power Systems for Smart Grid Applications

Modern power networks incorporate communications and information technology infrastructure into the electrical power system to create a smart grid in terms of control and operation. The smart grid enables real-time communication and control between consumers and utility companies allowing suppliers to optimize energy usage based on price preference and system technical issues. The smart grid design aims to provide overall power system monitoring, create protection and control strategies to maintain system performance, stability and security. This dissertation contributed to the development of a unique and novel smart grid test-bed laboratory with integrated monitoring, protection and control systems. This test-bed was used as a platform to test the smart grid operational ideas developed here. The implementation of this system in the real-time software creates an environment for studying, implementing and verifying novel control and protection schemes developed in this dissertation. Phasor measurement techniques were developed using the available Data Acquisition (DAQ) devices in order to monitor all points in the power system in real time. This provides a practical view of system parameter changes, system abnormal conditions and its stability and security information system. These developments provide valuable measurements for technical power system operators in the energy control centers. Phasor Measurement technology is an excellent solution for improving system planning, operation and energy trading in addition to enabling advanced applications in Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC). Moreover, a virtual protection system was developed and implemented in the smart grid laboratory with integrated functionality for wide area applications. Experiments and procedures were developed in the system in order to detect the system abnormal conditions and apply proper remedies to heal the system. A design for DC microgrid was developed to integrate it to the AC system with appropriate control capability. This system represents realistic hybrid AC/DC microgrids connectivity to the AC side to study the use of such architecture in system operation to help remedy system abnormal conditions. In addition, this dissertation explored the challenges and feasibility of the implementation of real-time system analysis features in order to monitor the system security and stability measures. These indices are measured experimentally during the operation of the developed hybrid AC/DC microgrids. Furthermore, a real-time optimal power flow system was implemented to optimally manage the power sharing between AC generators and DC side resources. A study relating to real-time energy management algorithm in hybrid microgrids was performed to evaluate the effects of using energy storage resources and their use in mitigating heavy load impacts on system stability and operational security.