Development of safety performance functions for empirical Bayes estimation of crash reduction factors

Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used to estimate the potential number of traffic crashes expected to be prevented from investment in safety improvement projects. The method used to develop CRFs in Florida has been based on the commonly used before-and-after approach. This approach suffers from a widely recognized problem known as regression-to-the-mean (RTM). The Empirical Bayes (EB) method has been introduced as a means to addressing the RTM problem. This method requires the information from both the treatment and reference sites in order to predict the expected number of crashes had the safety improvement projects at the treatment sites not been implemented. The information from the reference sites is estimated from a safety performance function (SPF), which is a mathematical relationship that links crashes to traffic exposure. The objective of this dissertation was to develop the SPFs for different functional classes of the Florida State Highway System. Crash data from years 2001 through 2003 along with traffic and geometric data were used in the SPF model development. SPFs for both rural and urban roadway categories were developed. The modeling data used were based on one-mile segments that contain homogeneous traffic and geometric conditions within each segment. Segments involving intersections were excluded. The scatter plots of data show that the relationships between crashes and traffic exposure are nonlinear, that crashes increase with traffic exposure in an increasing rate. Four regression models, namely, Poisson (PRM), Negative Binomial (NBRM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), were fitted to the one-mile segment records for individual roadway categories. The best model was selected for each category based on a combination of the Likelihood Ratio test, the Vuong statistical test, and the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The NBRM model was found to be appropriate for only one category and the ZINB model was found to be more appropriate for six other categories. The overall results show that the Negative Binomial distribution model generally provides a better fit for the data than the Poisson distribution model. In addition, the ZINB model was found to give the best fit when the count data exhibit excess zeros and over-dispersion for most of the roadway categories. While model validation shows that most data points fall within the 95% prediction intervals of the models developed, the Pearson goodness-of-fit measure does not show statistical significance. This is expected as traffic volume is only one of the many factors contributing to the overall crash experience, and that the SPFs are to be applied in conjunction with Accident Modification Factors (AMFs) to further account for the safety impacts of major geometric features before arriving at the final crash prediction. However, with improved traffic and crash data quality, the crash prediction power of SPF models may be further improved.

An evaluation of coping ability as a guide to the treatment of persons diagnosed with schizophrenia and substance abuse

This dissertation introduced substance abuse to the Dynamic Vulnerability Formulation (DVF) and the social competence model to determine if the relationship between schizophrenic symptomatology and coping ability in the DVF applied also to the dually diagnosed schizophrenic or if these variables needed to be modified. It compared the coping abilities of dually and singly diagnosed clients in day treatment and identified, examined, and assessed the relative influence of relevant mediating variables on two dimensions of coping ability of the dually diagnosed: coping skills and coping effort. These variables were: presence of negative and nonnegative symptoms, duration of mental illness, type of substance used, and age of first substance use.^ A priori effect sizes based on previous empirical research were used to interpret the results related to the comparison of demographic, socioeconomic, and treatment characteristics between the singly and dually diagnosed study samples. The data suggested that the singly diagnosed group had higher coping skills than the dually diagnosed group, particularly in the areas of housing stability, work affect, and total social adjustment. The dually diagnosed group had lower scores on one aspect of coping effort--agency or self-efficacy. The data supported the presence of an inverse relationship between symptom severity and coping skills, particularly for the dually diagnosed group. The data did not support the presence of an inverse relationship between symptom severity and coping effort, but did suggest a positive relationship between symptom severity and one measure of coping effort, agency, for the dually diagnosed group. Regression equations using each summary measure of coping skill--social adjustment and role functioning--yielded statistically significant F-ratios. Thirty-six percent of the variance in social adjustment and thirty-one percent of the variance in role functioning were explained by the relative influence of the relevant variables. Both negative and non-negative symptoms were the only significant predictors of social adjustment. The non-negative symptoms variable was the sole significant predictor of role functioning. The results of this study provided partial support for the use of the Dynamic Vulnerability Formulation (DVF) with the dually diagnosed. ^

Reverse Engineering of Modified Genes by Bayesian Network Analysis Defines Molecular Determinants Critical to the Development of Glioblastoma

In this study we have identified key genes that are critical in development of astrocytic tumors. Meta-analysis of microarray studies which compared normal tissue to astrocytoma revealed a set of 646 differentially expressed genes in the majority of astrocytoma. Reverse engineering of these 646 genes using Bayesian network analysis produced a gene network for each grade of astrocytoma (Grade I–IV), and ‘key genes’ within each grade were identified. Genes found to be most influential to development of the highest grade of astrocytoma, Glioblastoma multiforme were: COL4A1, EGFR, BTF3, MPP2, RAB31, CDK4, CD99, ANXA2, TOP2A, and SERBP1. All of these genes were up-regulated, except MPP2 (down regulated). These 10 genes were able to predict tumor status with 96–100% confidence when using logistic regression, cross validation, and the support vector machine analysis. Markov genes interact with NFkβ, ERK, MAPK, VEGF, growth hormone and collagen to produce a network whose top biological functions are cancer, neurological disease, and cellular movement. Three of the 10 genes - EGFR, COL4A1, and CDK4, in particular, seemed to be potential ‘hubs of activity’. Modified expression of these 10 Markov Blanket genes increases lifetime risk of developing glioblastoma compared to the normal population. The glioblastoma risk estimates were dramatically increased with joint effects of 4 or more than 4 Markov Blanket genes. Joint interaction effects of 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10 Markov Blanket genes produced 9, 13, 20.9, 26.7, 52.8, 53.2, 78.1 or 85.9%, respectively, increase in lifetime risk of developing glioblastoma compared to normal population. In summary, it appears that modified expression of several ‘key genes’ may be required for the development of glioblastoma. Further studies are needed to validate these ‘key genes’ as useful tools for early detection and novel therapeutic options for these tumors.

The relationship of instructor technical literacy to the academic performance of students in career academies

Career Academy instructors' technical literacy is vital to the academic success of students. This nonexperimental ex post facto study examined the relationships between the level of technical literacy of instructors in career academies and student academic performance. It was also undertaken to explore the relationship between the pedagogical training of instructors and the academic performance of students. ^ Out of a heterogeneous population of 564 teachers in six targeted schools, 136 teachers (26.0 %) responded to an online survey. The survey was designed to gather demographic and teaching experience data. Each demographic item was linked by researchers to teachers' technology use in the classroom. Student achievement was measured by student learning gains as assessed by the reading section of the FCAT from the previous to the present school year. ^ Linear and hierarchical regressions were conducted to examine the research questions. To clarify the possibility of teacher gender and teacher race/ethnic group differences by research variable, a series of one-way ANOVAs were conducted. As revealed by the ANOVA results, there were not statistically significant group differences in any of the research variables by teacher gender or teacher race/ethnicity. Greater student learning gains were associated with greater teacher technical expertise integrating computers and technology into the classroom, even after controlling for teacher attitude towards computers. Neither teacher attitude toward technology integration nor years of experience in integrating computers into the curriculum significantly predicted student learning gains in the regression models. ^ Implications for HRD theory, research, and practice suggest that identifying teacher levels of technical literacy may help improve student academic performance by facilitating professional development strategies and new parameters for defining highly qualified instructors with 21st century skills. District professional development programs can benefit by increasing their offerings to include more computer and information communication technology courses. Teacher preparation programs can benefit by including technical literacy as part of their curriculum. State certification requirements could be expanded to include formal surveys to assess teacher use of technology.^

Small sample confidence intervals for the mean of a positively skewed distribution

This thesis proposes some confidence intervals for the mean of a positively skewed distribution. The following confidence intervals are considered: Student-t, Johnson-t, median-t, mad-t, bootstrap-t, BCA, T1 , T3 and six new confidence intervals, the median bootstrap-t, mad bootstrap-t, median T1, mad T1 , median T3 and the mad T3. A simulation study has been conducted and average widths, coefficient of variation of widths, and coverage probabilities were recorded and compared across confidence intervals. To compare confidence intervals, the width and coverage probabilities were compared so that smaller widths indicated a better confidence interval when coverage probabilities were the same. Results showed that the median T1 and median T3 outperformed other confidence intervals in terms of coverage probability and the mad bootstrap-t, mad-t, and mad T3 outperformed others in terms of width. Some real life data are considered to illustrate the findings of the thesis.

Relevance of the community college curriculum to the international student

The purpose of this study was to ascertain the perception of the level of satisfaction that international students have regarding the services and the relevance of the curriculum offered at Miami-Dade Community College. Trends and issues at universities and community colleges in providing services and an international curriculum for foreign students are outlined. Focus is on characteristics, personal and career needs as well as needs of national development for the students' countries. A sample of students from four developing nations was selected to qualitatively and quantitatively determine their level of satisfaction. The nations are the Bahamas, Colombia, Haiti and Pakistan. Students responses were recorded through group interviews, four personal interviews, an open ended questionnaire and a Likert scaled survey questionnaire. Matrix charts, mean calculations and one way analysis of variance were used to analyze data collected. Country of origin and major program of study were the variables used for statistical analysis. Information gathered through qualitative research presented a variety of perspectives and responses, both positive and negative. Students supplied specific examples of experiences and insights to help explain their various perceptions. Statistically, there were no significant differences between the variables of country of origin and major program of study regarding program services and relevance of the curriculum. Implications and recommendations for community college programs were outlined.

Factors influencing university performance of associate in arts graduates transferring to the state university system

The purpose of this study was to examine the factorsbehind the failure rates of Associate in Arts (AA)graduates from Miami-Dade Community College (M-DCC) transferring to the Florida State University System (SUS). In M-DCC's largest disciplines, the university failure rate was 13% for Business & Management, 13% for Computer Science, and 14% for Engineering. Hypotheses tested were: Hypothesis 1 (H1): The lower division (LD) overall cumulative GPA and/or the LD major field GPA for AA graduates are predictive of the SUS GPA for the Business Management, Computer Science, and Engineering disciplines. Hypothesis 2 (H2): Demographic variables (age, race, gender) are predictive of performance at the university among M-DCC AA graduates in Engineering, Business & Management, and Computer Science. Hypothesis 3 (H3): Administrative variables (CLAST -College Level Academic Skills Test subtests) are predictive of university performance (GPA) for the Business/Management, Engineering, and Computer Science disciplines. Hypothesis 4 (H4): LD curriculum variables (course credits, course quality points) are predictive of SUS performance for the Engineering, Business/Management and Computer Science disciplines. Multiple Regression was the inferential procedureselected for predictions. Descriptive statistics weregenerated on the predictors. Results for H1 identified the LD GPA as the most significant variable in accounting for the variability of the university GPA for the Business & Management, Computer Science, and Engineering disciplines. For H2, no significant results were obtained for theage and gender variables, but the ethnic subgroups indicated significance at the .0001 level. However, differentials in GPA may not have been due directly to the race factor but, rather, to curriculum choices and performance outcomes while in the LD. The CLAST computation variable (H3) was a significant predictor of the SUS GPA. This is most likely due to the mathematics structure pervasive in these disciplines. For H4, there were two curriculum variables significant in explaining the variability of the university GPA (number of required critical major credits completed and quality of the student's performance for these credits). Descriptive statistics on the predictors indicated that 78% of those failing in the State University System had a LD major GPA (calculated with the critical required university credits earned and quality points of these credits) of less than 3.0; and 83% of those failing at the university had an overall community college GPA of less than 3.0.

The Relationship of Instructor Technical Literacy to the Academic Performance of Students in Career Academies

Career Academy instructors’ technical literacy is vital to the academic success of students. This nonexperimental ex post facto study examined the relationships between the level of technical literacy of instructors in career academies and student academic performance. It was also undertaken to explore the relationship between the pedagogical training of instructors and the academic performance of students. Out of a heterogeneous population of 564 teachers in six targeted schools, 136 teachers (26.0 %) responded to an online survey. The survey was designed to gather demographic and teaching experience data. Each demographic item was linked by researchers to teachers’ technology use in the classroom. Student achievement was measured by student learning gains as assessed by the reading section of the FCAT from the previous to the present school year. Linear and hierarchical regressions were conducted to examine the research questions. To clarify the possibility of teacher gender and teacher race/ethnic group differences by research variable, a series of one-way ANOVAs were conducted. As revealed by the ANOVA results, there were not statistically significant group differences in any of the research variables by teacher gender or teacher race/ethnicity. Greater student learning gains were associated with greater teacher technical expertise integrating computers and technology into the classroom, even after controlling for teacher attitude towards computers. Neither teacher attitude toward technology integration nor years of experience in integrating computers into the curriculum significantly predicted student learning gains in the regression models. Implications for HRD theory, research, and practice suggest that identifying teacher levels of technical literacy may help improve student academic performance by facilitating professional development strategies and new parameters for defining highly qualified instructors with 21st century skills. District professional development programs can benefit by increasing their offerings to include more computer and information communication technology courses. Teacher preparation programs can benefit by including technical literacy as part of their curriculum. State certification requirements could be expanded to include formal surveys to assess teacher use of technology.