Decision-making under extreme *uncertainty: Rethinking hazard -related perceptions and action

Understanding who evacuates and who does not has been one of the cornerstones of research on the pre-impact phase of both natural and technological hazards. Its history is rich in descriptive illustrations focusing on lists of characteristics of those who flee to safety. Early models of evacuation focused almost exclusively on the relationship between whether warnings were heard and ultimately believed and evacuation behavior. How people came to believe these warnings and even how they interpreted the warnings were not incorporated. In fact, the individual seemed almost removed from the picture with analysis focusing exclusively on external measures. ^ This study built and tested a more comprehensive model of evacuation that centers on the decision-making process, rather than decision outcomes. The model focused on three important factors that alter and shape the evacuation decision-making landscape. These factors are: individual level indicators which exist independently of the hazard itself and act as cultural lenses through which information is heard, processed and interpreted; hazard specific variables that directly relate to the specific hazard threat; and risk perception. The ultimate goal is to determine what factors influence the evacuation decision-making process. Using data collected for 1998's Hurricane Georges, logistic regression models were used to evaluate how well the three main factors help our understanding of how individuals come to their decisions to either flee to safety during a hurricane or remain in their homes. ^ The results of the logistic regression were significant emphasizing that the three broad types of factors tested in the model influence the decision making process. Conclusions drawn from the data analysis focus on how decision-making frames are different for those who can be designated “evacuators” and for those in evacuation zones. ^

Structural Health Monitoring using Index Based Reasoning for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) may develop cracks, erosion, delamination or other damages due to aging, fatigue or extreme loads. Identifying these damages is critical for the safe and reliable operation of the systems. ^ Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is capable of determining the conditions of systems automatically and continually through processing and interpreting the data collected from a network of sensors embedded into the systems. With the desired awareness of the systems’ health conditions, SHM can greatly reduce operational cost and speed up maintenance processes. ^ The purpose of this study is to develop an effective, low-cost, flexible and fault tolerant structural health monitoring system. The proposed Index Based Reasoning (IBR) system started as a simple look-up-table based diagnostic system. Later, Fast Fourier Transformation analysis and neural network diagnosis with self-learning capabilities were added. The current version is capable of classifying different health conditions with the learned characteristic patterns, after training with the sensory data acquired from the operating system under different status. ^ The proposed IBR systems are hierarchy and distributed networks deployed into systems to monitor their health conditions. Each IBR node processes the sensory data to extract the features of the signal. Classifying tools are then used to evaluate the local conditions with health index (HI) values. The HI values will be carried to other IBR nodes in the next level of the structured network. The overall health condition of the system can be obtained by evaluating all the local health conditions. ^ The performance of IBR systems has been evaluated by both simulation and experimental studies. The IBR system has been proven successful on simulated cases of a turbojet engine, a high displacement actuator, and a quad rotor helicopter. For its application on experimental data of a four rotor helicopter, IBR also performed acceptably accurate. The proposed IBR system is a perfect fit for the low-cost UAVs to be the onboard structural health management system. It can also be a backup system for aircraft and advanced Space Utility Vehicles. ^