Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^

Spatial variability in Florida Bay particulate organic matter composition: combining flow cytometry with stable isotope analyses

Long-term management plans for restoration of natural flow conditions through the Everglades increase the importance of understanding potential nutrient impacts of increased freshwater delivery on Florida Bay biogeochemistry. Planktonic communities respond quickly to changes in water quality, thus spatial variability in community composition and relationships to nutrient parameters must be understood in order to evaluate future downstream impacts of modifications to Everglades hydrology. Here we present initial results combining flow cytometry analyses of phytoplankton and bacterial populations (0.1–50 μm size fraction) with measurements of δ13C and δ15N composition and dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations to explore proxies for planktonic species assemblage compositions and nutrient cycling. Particulate organic material in the 0.1–50 μm size fraction was collected from five stations in Northeastern and Western Florida Bay to characterize spatial variability in species assemblage and stable isotopic composition. A dense bloom of the picocyanobacterium, Synechococcus elongatus, was observed at Western Florida Bay sites. Smaller Synechococcus sp. were present at Northeast sites in much lower abundance. Bacteria and detrital particles were also more abundant at Western Florida Bay stations than in the northeast region. The highest abundance of detritus occurred at Trout Creek, which receives freshwater discharge from the Everglades through Taylor Slough. In terms of nutrient availability and stable isotopic values, the S. elongatus population in the Western bay corresponded to low DIN (0.5 μM NH 4 + ; 0.2 μM NO 3 − ) concentrations and depleted δ15N signatures ranging from +0.3 to +0.8‰, suggesting that the bloom supported high productivity levels through N2-fixation. δ15N values from the Northeast bay were more enriched (+2.0 to +3.0‰), characteristic of N-recycling. δ13C values were similar for all marine Florida Bay stations, ranging from −17.6 to −14.4‰, however were more depleted at the mangrove ecotone station (−25.5 to −22.3‰). The difference in the isotopic values reflects differences in carbon sources. These findings imply that variations in resource availability and nutrient sources exert significant control over planktonic community composition, which is reflected by stable isotopic signatures.