An autoregressive conditional filtering process to remove intraday seasonal volatility and its application to testing the noisy rational expectations model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Power and influence in joint venture relationships and their impact on performance

The purpose of this research was to apply the concepts of power and influence tactics to the joint venture context by examining how they relate to venture performance. In addition, culture and the expectations of future cooperation were examined for their association with influence tactic use and joint venture performance. Data were collected from 58 parent firms of U.S.-based domestic and international joint ventures about their relationships with their partners.^ Under the theories of social exchange and power dependence, a parent's level of power is based on its partner's dependence on the relationship. The statistical results indicated that: (1) the greater the total of power of both parents in an equal power relationship, the greater the joint venture's performance; and (2) the greater the inequality between each parent's level of power, the lower the joint venture's performance. It was also found that the way in which a parent firm tried to influence its partner was related to joint venture performance. Specifically, the use of references to a partner's legitimate authority was negatively related to performance, while the use of rational arguments and compromises was positively related.^ Contrary to expectations, the cultural backgrounds of the parents were not shown to have a relationship to influence tactic use or joint venture's performance. On the other hand, greater expectation of future cooperation had a positive association with performance, and a significant relationship with influence tactic use. The greater the expectation, the less partners used more confrontational tactics such as pressure or legitimate authority. ^

Implementing aspects of Blueprint 2000: Investigating readiness expectations in selected elementary schools in Broward County, Florida

The purpose of this research study was to investigate if the determination of school readiness as it was evaluated by Broward County kindergarten teachers on the Florida's Expectations of School Readiness checklist can be attributed to the effects of gender, chronological age on school entry, racial or ethnic background, attending public preschool, native language other than English, or socioeconomic status.^ This is a descriptive study in which the number of expectations passed or failed for each of the identifier categories was compared. The Chi-squared distribution was used to evaluate the null hypothesis that "chronological age at entry to school, gender, race or ethnicity, native language other than English, public preschool experience, and socioeconomic status have no effect on the determination of readiness for school". Results were confirmed using t-tests, ANOVA, and linear regression models. The cohort of 1555 Broward County students in the study were evaluated using the Florida's Expectations for School Readiness checklist and were determined not ready for school during the initial data collection year 1996-1997.^ The determination of school readiness was significantly dependent on the gender, and racial or ethnic background of the students in the cohort. The socioeconomic status and native language other than English designations were significant for students only in the areas of preacademic, academic and literacy development. Chronological age on entry to school or attendance in public preschool prior to entry in kindergarten for the cohort was not significant in the determination of readiness for school.^ Given the fact that this study followed only students that were determined not ready for school, it is recommended that a second cohort of both "ready" and "not ready" students be studied. ^

Inmanencia mistica en la obra de Federico Garcia Lorca

The purpose of this dissertation was to analyze the works of Federico García Lorca within the mystic context that dominates their very genesis. The problematic definition of mysticism was explored lest it be confused with traditional mysticism, which implies union with the divine. The historiography of literature speaks of the Mystic Genre, yet it does not address the mystic mode of artistic creation due to its inability to adhere to rational measure. This mode of conception was explored through Lorca's poetic discourse: ‘Lorquian mysticism’ is the result of the poet's cultivation of an innate spiritual potential enhanced by external influences and technical mastery. ^ There is visible influence of Fray Luis of León in Lorca's early Libro de poemas and El maleficio de la mariposa, as well as of Saint John of the Cross in the later Diván del Tamarit, Sonetos de amor and Yerma. However, definitive echoes of poets from the Sufi and other Eastern mystic traditions were also illustrated in these late works. A persistent longing to elide the physical condition, the greatest obstacle of the transcendental quest, is the essence of Lorca's poetic voice. ^ The object of this analysis was Lorca's language, which reaches levels removed from conventional thought. His dazzling metaphors and his particular use of symbols and of paradox compare equitably with those of great mystic poets. Like them, Lorca was faced with the same limitations of language to describe an ineffable experience; he embraced what Octavio Paz describes as ‘sacred language’: there is a linguistic frugality as well as an ambiguity in Lorca's poetic art that result from his realization of supercognitive states. Yet such an interpretation is rejected by the rationalist approach, invoking the age-old debate between faith and reason and signaling the application of psychoanalytical theory. This limited approach was disputed on the basis of reader-response theory. Lorca was truly an eclectic and a modification of the conventional reader's preestablished horizon of expectations is essential in order to seal the gaps in his late works. This innovative perspective placed Lorca within the framework of a new mysticism in the modern world. ^

The boundaries of acceptance: Do expectations for the complainant's psychological injury affect legal decisions in a sexual harassment case

Research indicates that people engaged in legal decision-making use a host of biases and preconceptions to guide their decisions about whether the evidence presented to them is reasonable. However, few theories address how such expectations affect legal decision-makers. The present study attempted to determine if social judgment theory (SJT) can explain how and when legal decision-makers rely on expectations for the complainant's psychological injury in a hostile environment sexual harassment case. Two experiments provided undergraduate participants with a written summary of a hostile work environment allegation that first manipulated participants' expectations about reasonable psychological injuries (mild v. severe), and then presented them with actual severity levels of psychological injury (ranging from minimal to extreme). Experiment 1 (N = 295) hypothesized and found that participants who expected severe injuries perceived a greater range of psychological injuries to be reasonable than participants expecting mild injury. Experiment 2 ( N = 202) used similar methodology and investigated whether perceived reasonableness for the injury allegations affected legal decisions. Experiment 2 hypothesized that participants expecting severe psychological injury should render more pro-complainant decisions than participants expecting mild psychological injury. This result should be most pronounced when participants receive a moderate injury allegation, since this allegation was perceived as reasonable by participants expecting severe injury, but unreasonable by participants expecting mild injury. Consistent with SJT, participants who received a moderate injury but expected a severe injury found more liability than participants who received a moderate injury but expected a mild injury. Inconsistent with SJT, participants' expectations did not affect their compensatory damage decisions. In fact, more severe injury allegations increased damage awards regardless of participants' expectations. Although the results provide mixed support for applying SJT to legal decisions in sexual harassment cases, they emphasize the continuing role of oft-unstudied extra-legal factors (juror's expectations and psychological injury severity) on legal decisions.

Student Expositions as an Opportunity to Feel Proud: One Antidote to Expectations of Failure in Zone Schools

Expositions of student work at the end of the extended school year are one of many reform efforts in a specially formed School Improvement Zone in Miami Dade schools. This descriptive analysis offers examples of successful attempts to engender pride even in the face of formidable social and cultural obstacles.

Strategic Directions of Hotel Industry Expectations

A factor analysis is presented which indicates that among 20 potential strategic issues reated by hotl industry executives three fundamental strategic directions exist. The author summarizes an empiracle study that queried these individuals' beliefs regarding strategic issues they rated at most important.

Senior Savvy: Mature Diner's Restaurant Service Expectations

This article is a reflection of a study conducted with active mature consumers who enjoy dining out, traveling, and patronizing the service industry in general. The goal was to discover their restaurant service expectations in order to provide restaurateurs, hoteliers, educators, and students of hospitality management programs information about this important customer segment so that future plans for improving service would include considerations of their service needs.

Evidence of the heterogeneous market hypothesis using wavelet multi -resolution analysis

In finance literature many economic theories and models have been proposed to explain and estimate the relationship between risk and return. Assuming risk averseness and rational behavior on part of the investor, the models are developed which are supposed to help in forming efficient portfolios that either maximize (minimize) the expected rate of return (risk) for a given level of risk (rates of return). One of the most used models to form these efficient portfolios is the Sharpe's Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In the development of this model it is assumed that the investors have homogeneous expectations about the future probability distribution of the rates of return. That is, every investor assumes the same values of the parameters of the probability distribution. Likewise financial volatility homogeneity is commonly assumed, where volatility is taken as investment risk which is usually measured by the variance of the rates of return. Typically the square root of the variance is used to define financial volatility, furthermore it is also often assumed that the data generating process is made of independent and identically distributed random variables. This again implies that financial volatility is measured from homogeneous time series with stationary parameters. In this dissertation, we investigate the assumptions of homogeneity of market agents and provide evidence for the case of heterogeneity in market participants' information, objectives, and expectations about the parameters of the probability distribution of prices as given by the differences in the empirical distributions corresponding to different time scales, which in this study are associated with different classes of investors, as well as demonstrate that statistical properties of the underlying data generating processes including the volatility in the rates of return are quite heterogeneous. In other words, we provide empirical evidence against the traditional views about homogeneity using non-parametric wavelet analysis on trading data, The results show heterogeneity of financial volatility at different time scales, and time-scale is one of the most important aspects in which trading behavior differs. In fact we conclude that heterogeneity as posited by the Heterogeneous Markets Hypothesis is the norm and not the exception.