Temporal analysis of land use and transportation investments with geographic information system

Land use and transportation interaction has been a research topic for several decades. There have been efforts to identify impacts of transportation on land use from several different perspectives. One focus has been the role of transportation improvements in encouraging new land developments or relocation of activities due to improved accessibility. The impacts studied have included property values and increased development. Another focus has been on the changes in travel behavior due to better mobility and accessibility. Most studies to date have been conducted in metropolitan level, thus unable to account for interactions spatially and temporally at smaller geographic scales. ^ In this study, a framework for studying the temporal interactions between transportation and land use was proposed and applied to three selected corridor areas in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The framework consists of two parts: one is developing of temporal data and the other is applying time series analysis to this temporal data to identify their dynamic interactions. Temporal GIS databases were constructed and used to compile building permit data and transportation improvement projects. Two types of time series analysis approaches were utilized: univariate models and multivariate models. Time series analysis is designed to describe the dynamic consequences of time series by developing models and forecasting the future of the system based on historical trends. Model estimation results from the selected corridors were then compared. ^ It was found that the time series models predicted residential development better than commercial development. It was also found that results from three study corridors varied in terms of the magnitude of impacts, length of lags, significance of the variables, and the model structure. Long-run effect or cumulated impact of transportation improvement on land developments was also measured with time series techniques. The study offered evidence that congestion negatively impacted development and transportation investments encouraged land development. ^

A tapestry of land uses and land covers typify our study site. Here, a commercial farm surrounds a new residential development.

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation through the Florida Coastal Everglades Long-Term Ecological Research program under Cooperative Agreements #DBI-0620409 and #DEB-9910514. This image is made available for non-commercial or educational use only.

Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

Land Use and Water Quality Correlations in Miami-Dade, Florida

South Florida continues to become increasingly developed and urbanized. My exploratory study examines connections between land use and water quality. The main objectives of the project were to develop an understanding of how land use has affected water quality in Miami-Dade canals, and an economic optimization model to estimate the costs of best management practices necessary to improve water quality. Results indicate Miami-Dade County land use and water quality are correlated. Through statistical factor and cluster analysis, it is apparent that agricultural areas are associated with higher concentrations of nitrogen, while urban areas commonly have higher levels of phosphorous than agricultural areas. The economic optimization model shows that urban areas can improve water quality by lowering fertilizer inputs. Agricultural areas can also implement methods to improve water quality although it may be more expensive than urban areas. It is important to keep solutions in mind when looking towards future water quality improvements in South Florida.

Climate, Land Use and Hydrologic Sensitivities of Stormwater Quantity and Quality in Complex Coastal Urban Watersheds

The study analyzed hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the complex coastal urban watershed of Miami River Basin, Florida by developing a Storm Water Management Model (EPA SWMM 5). Regression-based empirical models were also developed to explain stream water quality in relation to internal (land uses and hydrology) and external (upstream contribution, seawater) sources and drivers in six highly urbanized canal basins of Southeast Florida. Stormwater runoff and quality were most sensitive to rainfall, imperviousness, and conversion of open lands/parks to residential, commercial and industrial areas. In-stream dissolved oxygen and total phosphorus in the watersheds were dictated by internal stressors while external stressors were dominant for total nitrogen and specific conductance. The research findings and tools will be useful for proactive monitoring and management of storm runoff and urban stream water quality under the changing climate and environment in South Florida and around the world.

Selection and passage of county land preservation voter referendum: The role of government

County jurisdictions in America are increasingly exercising self-government in the provision of public community services through the context of second order federalism. In states exercising this form of contemporary governance, county governments with "reformed" policy-making structures and professional management practices, have begun to rival or surpass municipalities in the delivery of local services with regional implications such as environmental protection (Benton 2002, 2003; Marando and Reeves, 1993). ^ The voter referendum, a form of direct democracy, is an important component of county land preservation and environmental protection governmental policies. The recent growth and success of land preservation voter referendums nationwide reflects an increase in citizen participation in government and their desire to protect vacant land and its natural environment from threats of over-development, urbanization and sprawl, loss of open space and farmland, deterioration of ecosystems, and inadequate park and recreational amenities. ^ The study's design employs a sequential, mixed method. First, a quantitative approach employs the Heckman two-step model. It is fitted with variables for the non-random sample of 227 voter referendum counties and all non-voter referendum counties in the U.S. from 1988 to 2009. Second, the qualitative data collected from the in-depth investigation of three South Florida county case studies with twelve public administrator interviews is transformed for integration with the quantitative findings. The purpose of the qualitative method is to complement, explain and enrich the statistical analysis of county demographic, socio-economic, terrain, regional, governance and government, political preference, environmentalism, and referendum-specific factors. ^ The research finds that government factors are significant in terms of the success of land preservation voter referendums; more specifically, the presence of self-government authority (home rule charter), a reformed structure (county administrator/manager or elected executive), and environmental interest groups. In addition, this study concludes that successful counties are often located coastal, exhibit population and housing growth, and have older and more educated citizens who vote democratic in presidential elections. The analysis of case study documents and public administrator interviews finds that pragmatic considerations of timing, local politics and networking of regional stakeholders are also important features of success. Further research is suggested utilizing additional public participation, local government and public administration factors.^

Selection and Passage of County Land Preservation Voter Referendum: The Role of Government

County jurisdictions in America are increasingly exercising self-government in the provision of public community services through the context of second order federalism. In states exercising this form of contemporary governance, county governments with “reformed” policy-making structures and professional management practices, have begun to rival or surpass municipalities in the delivery of local services with regional implications such as environmental protection (Benton 2002, 2003; Marando and Reeves, 1993). The voter referendum, a form of direct democracy, is an important component of county land preservation and environmental protection governmental policies. The recent growth and success of land preservation voter referendums nationwide reflects an increase in citizen participation in government and their desire to protect vacant land and its natural environment from threats of over-development, urbanization and sprawl, loss of open space and farmland, deterioration of ecosystems, and inadequate park and recreational amenities. The study’s design employs a sequential, mixed method. First, a quantitative approach employs the Heckman two-step model. It is fitted with variables for the non-random sample of 227 voter referendum counties and all non-voter referendum counties in the U.S. from 1988 to 2009. Second, the qualitative data collected from the in-depth investigation of three South Florida county case studies with twelve public administrator interviews is transformed for integration with the quantitative findings. The purpose of the qualitative method is to complement, explain and enrich the statistical analysis of county demographic, socio-economic, terrain, regional, governance and government, political preference, environmentalism, and referendum-specific factors. The research finds that government factors are significant in terms of the success of land preservation voter referendums; more specifically, the presence of self-government authority (home rule charter), a reformed structure (county administrator/manager or elected executive), and environmental interest groups. In addition, this study concludes that successful counties are often located coastal, exhibit population and housing growth, and have older and more educated citizens who vote democratic in presidential elections. The analysis of case study documents and public administrator interviews finds that pragmatic considerations of timing, local politics and networking of regional stakeholders are also important features of success. Further research is suggested utilizing additional public participation, local government and public administration factors.