Essays in environmental economic valuation and decision making in the presence of an environmental disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

A profile of travelers who are willing to stay in environmentally friendly hotel

The purpose of this study is to describe travelers that have indicated they are willing to stay in green hotel in order to better understand the market segment. There is very little knowledge about these types of travelers, thus making it difficult for hoteliers to know how to create marketing campaigns that target them. Data were collected via an online survey company. Behavior characteristics provided a more distinguishing profile of the traveler than did demographics or psychographics. Most travelers were willing to pay the same amount for a green hotel as a traditional hotel. Implications, future research, and limitations are discussed.

Essays in Environmental Economic Valuation and Decision Making in the Presence of an Environmental Disaster

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

Contemporary aspects of dividends: Before and during the financial crisis

The number of dividend paying firms has been on the decline since the popularity of stock repurchases in the 1980s, and the recent financial crisis has brought about a wave of dividend reductions and omissions. This dissertation examined the U.S. firms and American Depository Receipts that are listed on the U.S. equity exchanges according to their dividend paying history in the previous twelve quarters. While accounting for the state of the economy, the firm’s size, profitability, earned equity, and growth opportunities, it determines whether or not the firm will pay a dividend in the next quarter. It also examined the likelihood of a dividend change. Further, returns of firms were examined according to their dividend paying history and the state of the economy using the Fama-French three-factor model. Using forward, backward, and step-wise selection logistic regressions, the results show that firms with a history of regular and uninterrupted dividend payments are likely to continue to pay dividends, while firms that do not have a history of regular dividend payments are not likely to begin to pay dividends or continue to do so. The results of a set of generalized polytomous logistic regressions imply that dividend paying firms are more likely to reduce dividend payments during economic expansions, as opposed to recessions. Also the analysis of returns using the Fama-French three factor model reveals that dividend paying firms are earning significant abnormal positive returns. As a special case, a similar analysis of dividend payment and dividend change was applied to American Depository Receipts that trade on the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX exchanges and are issued by the Bank of New York Mellon. Returns of American Depository Receipts were examined using the Fama-French two-factor model for international firms. The results of the generalized polytomous logistic regression analyses indicate that dividend paying status and economic conditions are also important for dividend level change of American Depository Receipts, and Fama-French two-factor regressions alone do not adequately explain returns for these securities.

Near Term Computer Management Strategy For Hospitality Managers and Computer System Vendors

In his dialogue - Near Term Computer Management Strategy For Hospitality Managers and Computer System Vendors - by William O'Brien, Associate Professor, School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University, Associate Professor O’Brien initially states: “The computer revolution has only just begun. Rapid improvement in hardware will continue into the foreseeable future; over the last five years it has set the stage for more significant improvements in software technology still to come. John Naisbitt's information electronics economy¹ based on the creation and distribution of information has already arrived and as computer devices improve, hospitality managers will increasingly do at least a portion of their work with software tools.” At the time of this writing Assistant Professor O’Brien will have you know, contrary to what some people might think, the computer revolution is not over, it’s just beginning; it’s just an embryo. Computer technology will only continue to develop and expand, says O’Brien with citation. “A complacent few of us who feel “we have survived the computer revolution” will miss opportunities as a new wave of technology moves through the hospitality industry,” says ‘Professor O’Brien. “Both managers who buy technology and vendors who sell it can profit from strategy based on understanding the wave of technological innovation,” is his informed opinion. Property managers who embrace rather than eschew innovation, in this case computer technology, will benefit greatly from this new science in hospitality management, O’Brien says. “The manager who is not alert to or misunderstands the nature of this wave of innovation will be the constant victim of technology,” he advises. On the vendor side of the equation, O’Brien observes, “Computer-wise hospitality managers want systems which are easier and more profitable to operate. Some view their own industry as being somewhat behind the times… They plan to pay significantly less for better computer devices. Their high expectations are fed by vendor marketing efforts…” he says. O’Brien warns against taking a gamble on a risky computer system by falling victim to un-substantiated claims and pie-in-the-sky promises. He recommends affiliating with turn-key vendors who provide hardware, software, and training, or soliciting the help of large mainstream vendors such as IBM, NCR, or Apple. Many experts agree that the computer revolution has merely and genuinely morphed into the software revolution, informs O’Brien; “…recognizing that a computer is nothing but a box in which programs run.” Yes, some of the empirical data in this article is dated by now, but the core philosophy of advancing technology, and properties continually tapping current knowledge is sound.

Overcoming The Impotency Of Marketing

In his dialogue titled - Overcoming The Impotency Of Marketing - K. Michael Haywood, Assistant Professor, School of Hotel and Food Administration, University of Guelph, originally reveals: “Many accommodation businesses have discovered that their marketing activities are becoming increasingly impotent. To overcome this evolutionary stage in the life cycle of marketing, this article outlines six principles that will re-establish marketing's vitality.” “The opinion of general managers and senior marketing, financial, and food and beverage managers is that the marketing is not producing the results it once did and is not working as it should,” Haywood advises. Haywood points to price as the primary component hospitality managers use to favor/adjust their marketability. Although this is an effective tool, the practice can also erode profitability and margin he says. Haywood also points at recession as a major factor in exposing the failures of marketing plans. He adds that the hotel manager cannot afford to let this rationale go unchallenged; managers must take measures to mitigate circumstances that they might not have any control over. Managers must attempt to maintain profitability. “In many hotels, large corporate accounts or convention business generates a significant proportion of occupancy. Often these big buyers dictate their terms to the hotels, especially the price they are prepared to pay and the service they expect,” Haywood warns. This dynamic is just another significant pitfall that challenges marketing strategy. The savvy marketing technician must be aware of changes that occur in his or her marketplace, Haywood stresses. He offers three specific, real changes, which should be responded to. “To cope with the problems and uncertainties of the hotel business during the remainder of the decade, six components need to be developed if marketing impotency is to be overcome,” says Haywood in outlining his six-step approach to the problem. Additionally, forward thinking cannot be over-emphasized. “A high market share is helpful in general, but an even more crucial factor is careful consideration of the market sectors in which the company wants to operate,” your author advises. “Taking tactical initiatives is essential. Successful hotels act; unsuccessful ones react. The less successful marketing operations tend to be a hive of frantic activity. Fire-fighting is the normal way of life in such organizations, Haywood observes. “By contrast, successful firms plan and execute their tactical marketing activity with careful timing and precision so as to create the maximum impact,” he extends in describing his fruitful marketing arabesque.

A Comparative Study of Customer Perceptions Regarding Green Restaurant Practices: Fast Food vs. Upscale Casual

The current exploratory study was designed to determine the impact that green restaurant practices may have on intention to visit a restaurant and willingness to pay more because of those green practices. The study analyzed a convenience sample of 260 surveys from customers in fast food restaurants and 501 surveys from customers in upscale casual restaurants in the Midwestern United States (U.S.) in order to determine if there were differences in the perception of guests regarding these types of restaurants and their green practices. The findings showed that upscale casual restaurant customers believed they are knowledgeable at a higher level than the fast food restaurant customers about green restaurant practices, have a higher mean rating on the importance of environmental record and recycling in restaurants, and believed that restaurants should use local products when they can. In both groups of customers, there was a positive relationship between green practices utilized at home and customers’ willingness to pay more for green restaurant practices as well as their intention to visit the restaurant using green practices. Management implications are discussed.

The Spanish Civil War in the twenty -first century peninsular narrative: Narrative endeavors towards a national reconciliation?

This dissertation analyzes six twenty-first century novels that reflect Spain's current intellectual trends on the Spanish Civil War, Francoism and the transition to a democratic system. These novels deal with the complex correlation between memory and amnesia caused by the traumatic events of the Civil War. Despite the abundance of literature on this topic, these writers insist on the need for the recovery of historical and collective memory in order to halt the negative historical revisionism of recent years. Beginning with the death of Francisco Franco, this work focuses on the historical-theoretical framework that leads to the development of this mnemonic narrative and outlines the politics of memory effectuated during the transitional period, a lieu de mémoire frequently revisited and examined by new generations of writers. The novels analyzed also call for the retelling of history from the perspective of everyday people and address the need to pay overdue homage to victims of the post-war era.^ This work concludes that, while the texts may be considered settings for posthumous tributes, they could likewise advocate for a national reconciliation. Thus, as this narrative reveals, by focusing more on the need for a work on memory than on political and ideological polarizations, the memory of restitution does not interfere with the memory of reconciliation. The writers in question are nonetheless aware that reconciliation cannot be based on a spurious amnesia. The first step, therefore, towards reconciliation is to achieve a legitimate dialogue with regard to the traumatic past, and literary works may offer a tenable path. ^

The market value implications of pension asset allocation

Pension funds have been part of the private sector since the 1850's. Defined Benefit pension plans [DB], where a company promises to make regular contributions to investment accounts held for participating employees in order to pay a promised lifelong annuity, are significant capital markets participants, amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2010 (Federal Reserve Board, 2013). In 2006, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.158 (SFAS 158), Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postemployment Plans, shifted information concerning funding status and pension asset/liability composition from disclosure in the footnotes to recognition in the financial statements. I add to the literature by being the first to examine the effect of recent pension reform during the financial crisis of 2008-09. This dissertation is comprised of three related essays. In my first essay, I investigate whether investors assign different pricing multiples to the various classes of pension assets when valuing firms. The pricing multiples on all classes of assets are significantly different from each other, but only investments in bonds and equities were value-relevant during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with investors viewing pension liabilities as liabilities of the firm, the pricing multiples on pension liabilities are significantly larger than those on non-pension liabilities. The only pension costs significantly associated with firm value are actual rate of return and interest expense. In my second essay, I investigate the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows, extending the Barth et al. (2001a) model of the accrual process. Using market value of equity as a proxy for cash flows, the results of this study suggest that aggregate accounting amounts mask how the components of earnings affect investors' ability to predict future cash flows. Disaggregating pension earnings components and accruals results in an increase in predictive power. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, however, investors placed a greater (and negative) weight on the incremental information contained in the individual components of accruals. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications of accruals. Finally, in my third essay I investigate how investors view under-funded plans. On average, investors: view deficits arising from under-funded plans as belonging to the firm; reward firms with fully or over-funded pension plans; and encourage those funds with unfunded pension plans to become funded. Investors also encourage conservative pension asset allocations to mitigate firm risk, and smaller firms are perceived as being better able to handle the risk associated with underfunded plans. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009 underfunded status had a lower negative association with market value. In all three models, there are significant differences in pre- and post- SFAS 158 periods. These results are robust to various scenarios of the timing of the financial crisis and an alternative measure of funding.

Consolidating Security and Development in Colombia: Lessons for Peru and Panama

Colombia's increasingly effective efforts to mitigate the power of the FARC and other illegitimately armed groups in the country can offer important lessons for the Peruvian government as it strives to prevent a resurgence of Sendero Luminoso and other illegal non-state actors. Both countries share certain particular challenges: deep economic, social, and in the case of Peru ethnic divisions, the presence of and/or the effects of violent insurgencies, a large-scale narcotics production and trafficking, and a history of weak state presence in large tracts of isolated and scarcely-populated areas. Important differences exist, however in the nature of the insurgencies in the two countries, the government response to them and the nature of government and society that affects the applicability of Colombia's experience to Peru. The security threat to Panama from drug trafficking and Colombian insurgents --often a linked phenomenon-- are in many ways different from the drug/insurgent factor in Colombia itself and in Peru, although there are similar variables. Unlike the Colombian and Peruvian cases, the security threat in Panama is not directed against the state, there are no domestic elements seeking to overthrow the government -- as the case of the FARC and Sendero Luminoso, security problems have not spilled over from rural to urban areas in Panama, and there is no ideological component at play in driving the threat. Nor is drug cultivation a major factor in Panama as it is in Colombia and Peru. The key variable that is shared among all three cases is the threat of extra-state actors controlling remote rural areas or small towns where state presence is minimal. The central lesson learned from Colombia is the need to define and then address the key problem of a "sovereignity gap," lack of legitimate state presence in many part of the country. Colombia's success in broadening the presence of the national government between 2002 and the presence is owed to many factors, including an effective national strategy, improvements in the armed forces and police, political will on the part of government for a sustained effort, citizen buy-in to the national strategy, including the resolve of the elite to pay more in taxes to bring change about, and the adoption of a sequenced approach to consolidated development in conflicted areas. Control of territory and effective state presence improved citizen security, strengthened confidence in democracy and the legitimate state, promoted economic development, and helped mitigate the effect of illegal drugs. Peru can benefit from the Colombian experience especially in terms of the importance of legitimate state authority, improved institutions, gaining the support of local citizens, and furthering development to wean communities away from drugs. State coordinated "integration" efforts in Peru as practiced in Colombia have the potential for success if properly calibrated to Peruvian reality, coordinated within government, and provided with sufficient resources. Peru's traditionally weak political institutions and lack of public confidence in the state in many areas of the country must be overcome if this effort is to be successful.

Valuation of Ecosystem Services for Environmental Decision Making in South Florida

The Greater Everglades system imparts vital ecosystem services (ES) to South Florida residents including high quality drinking water supplies and a habitat for threatened and endangered species. As a result of the altered Everglades system and regional dynamics, restoration may either improve the provision of these services or impose a tradeoff between enhanced environmental goods and services and competing societal demands. The current study aims at understanding public preferences for restoration and generating willingness to pay (WTP) values for restored ES through the implementation of a discrete choice experiment. A previous study (Milon et al., 1999) generated WTP values amongst Floridians of up to $3.42 -$4.07 billion for full restoration over a 10-year period. We have collected data from 2,905 respondents taken from two samples who participated in an online survey designed to elicit the WTP values for selected ecological and social attributes included in the earlier study (Milon et al. 1999). We estimate that the Florida general public is willing to pay up to $854.1- $954.1 million over 10 years to avoid restrictions on their water usage and up to $90.8- $183.7 million over 10 years to restore the hydrological flow within the Water Conservation Area.

Jinetera

Jinetera, a novel set in La Habana, explores the self-discovery of Milena Campos whose mother drowned in her attempt to leave Cuba. Milena is sent to live with her mother’s half sister and ends up in the hospital. There she meets Kassandra Martinez-- a young prostitute (jinetera)--who is obsessed with escaping Cuba. Milena turns to prostitution to pay for a boat to Miami with Kassandra and her newborn baby. The plot of the novel centers around the theme of redemption for the protagonist as well as the characters around her. Milena believes that saving her friend’s baby will validate her mother’s death. Jinetera examines the core values of a young woman born and raised in a despondent dictatorship, who in search of freedom and redemption is led to test the limits of her integrity and humanity as she awakens to the harsh reality of a government she once trusted.

Investigating Stakeholders’ Preferences for Coral Reef Research Funding in Florida

Abstract: Heavily used and highly valuable, the Florida Reef is one of the world's most threatened ecosystems. Stakeholders from a densely urbanized coastal region in proximity to the reef system recognize its degradation, but their comprehension of climate change and commitment to pay for sustainable management and research funding have been opaque. With an emphasis on recreational anglers, residential stakeholders were surveyed online about their marine activities, perceptions of resources and threats, and willingness to pay (WTP) for dedicated coral reef research funding in Florida. The majority of stakeholders are wealthy, well educated, and politically independent. Supermajorities favored the two scenarios of taxation for a Florida Coral Reef Research Fund, and the scenario with matching federal funds earned higher support. In regression analyses, several factors emerged as significant contributors to stakeholders’ preferences, and the four recurring factors in extended models were prioritizing the environment over the economy, donating to environmental causes, concern about coral reefs, and concern about climate change, with the latter indicating a recent shift of opinion. Status in terms of income and education were found insignificant, and surprisingly income was negatively correlated with WTP. Perceptions through lenses of environmental and emotional attachments appear to overwhelm conventional status-based factors. Applied statewide, the first scenario's extrapolated WTP (based on a sales tax rate of 2.9%) would generate $675 million annually, and the extrapolated WTP under the second scenario, with matching federal funds (based on a sales tax rate of 3.0%) would generate $1.4 billion. Keywords: willingness to pay, coral reef research, taxation, climate change, stakeholder, perceptions, Florida Reef, recreational fishing, anglers