Examining moderators of the hindsight bias in the context of civil legal decision -making: Counterfactuals, causal proximity, and self -referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. ^ In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. ^ Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.^

Examining Moderators of the Hindsight Bias in the Context of Civil Legal Decision-Making: Counterfactuals, Causal Proximity, and Self-Referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.

Variables motivating parents to choose a specific type of private school

The purpose of this study was to investigate the reasons associated with parents' choices of specific types of private schools. The researcher hoped to determine if there were any significant differences in the reasons parents reported for enrolling their child in a specific private school. Studies in the past have explored why parents choose private schools. This study focused on why parents chose a specific type of private school, what were the variables involved, and were there any significant differences in the motivation of parents with children enrolled in different types of private schools.^ The study gathered data using a survey instrument which centered on 14 variables generally associated with the choice of private schools. The survey asked parents to rate the variables using a Likert type scale. The Likert rating was used because it does not require respondents to choose between variables. The general areas of emphasis were (a) academics, (b) religion and values/morals, (c) nurturing educational environment, and (d) proximity and convenience of the school. The survey also gather qualitative data in the form of comments volunteered by over a third of the respondents.^ The survey was mailed to 560 randomly selected families from 30 private high schools in a 50 mile radius of Miami, Florida. The 10 high schools, represented five types of private schools, Roman Catholic, Episcopal, Independent, Jewish, and Fundamentalist Christian. After four mailings a total of 401 surveys were returned for a rate 72%.^ Significant differences appeared as the data was analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey's HSD pairwise analysis. The variables showing significant differences between types of schools were (a) quality of instruction, (b) commitment of teachers, (c) emphasis on religion, (d) small class size, (e) well-defined academic goals, (f) proximity of the school's location, (g) preparation for desired secondary schools/colleges, and (h) convenience of school's operating schedule.^ Parents appeared to have specific reasons for choosing a particular private school. They appeared to look for a school that would satisfy the special needs of their child and would be compatible with their own values, morals, and personal philosophy. ^

Understanding anuran community dynamics in temporary wetlands: The interaction and importance of landscape and biotic processes

The major objective of this study was to determine the relative importance of landscape factors, local abiotic factors, and biotic interactions in influencing tadpole community structure in temporary wetlands. I also examined the influence of agricultural activities in South-central Florida by comparing tadpole communities in native prairie wetlands (a relatively unmodified habitat) at the Kissimmee Prairie Sanctuary (KPS) to tadpole communities in three agriculturally modified habitats found at MacArthur Agro-Ecology Research Center (MAERC). Environmental characteristics were measured in 24 isolated wetlands, and tadpoles were sampled using throw-traps and dipnets during the 1999 wet season (June–October). Landscape characteristics were expected to predominately influence all aspects of community structure because anurans associated with temporary wetland systems are likely to exist as metapopulations. Both landscape characteristics (wetland proximity to nearest woodland and the amount of woodland surrounding the wetland) and biotic interactions (fish predation) had the largest influence on tadpole community structure. Predatory fish influenced tadpole communities more than expected due to the ubiquity of wetlands, lack of topographic relief, and dispersal abilities of several fish species. Differences in tadpole community structure among habitat types were attributed to differences in woodland attributes and susceptibility to fish colonization. Furthermore, agricultural modification of prairie habitats in South-central Florida may benefit amphibian communities, particularly woodland-dwelling species that are unable to coexist with predatory fish. From a conservation standpoint, temporary wetlands proximal to woodland areas and isolated from permanent water sources appear to be most important to amphibians. In addition, the high tadpole densities attained in these wetlands suggest that these wetlands serve as biological hotspots within the landscape, and their benefits extend into the adjacent terrestrial matrix. Further research efforts are needed to quantify the biological productivity of these systems and determine spatial dynamics of anurans in surrounding terrestrial habitats. ^

The correlation of structure and electronic properties near the surface of transition metal oxides

The strong couplings between different degrees of freedom are believed to be responsible for novel and complex phenomena discovered in transition metal oxides (TMOs). The physical complexity is directly responsible for their tunability. Creating surfaces/interfaces add an additional ' man-made' twist, approaching the quantum phenomena of correlated materials. ^ The dissertation focused on the structural and electronic properties in proximity of surface of three prototype TMO compounds by using three complementary techniques: scanning tunneling microscopy, angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy and low energy electron diffraction, particularly emphasized the effects of broken symmetry and imperfections like defects on the coupling between charge and lattice degrees of freedom. ^ Ca1.5Sr0.5RuO4 is a layered ruthenate with square lattice and at the boundary of magnetic/orbital instability in Ca2-xSrxRuO4. That the substitution of Sr 2+ with Ca2+ causing RuO6 rotation narrows the dxy band width and changes the Fermi surface topology. Particularly, the γ(dxy) Fermi surface sheet exhibited hole-like in Ca1.5Sr0.5RuO4 in contrast to electron-like in Sr2RuO4, showing a strong charge-lattice coupling. ^ Na0.75CoO2 is a layered cobaltite with triangular lattice exhibiting extraordinary thermoelectric properties. The well-ordered CoO2-terminated surface with random Na distribution was observed. However, lattice constants of the surface are smaller than that in bulk. The surface density of states (DOS) showed strong temperature dependence. Especially, an unusual shift of the minimum DOS occurs below 230 K, clearly indicating a local charging effect on the surface. ^ Cd2Re2O7 is the first known pyrochlore oxide superconductor (Tc ∼ 1K). It exhibited an unusual second-order phase transition occurring at TS1 = 200 K and a controversial first-order transition at TS2 = 120 K. While bulk properties display large anomalies at TS1 but rather subtle and sample-dependent changes at TS2, the surface DOS near the EF show no change at T s1 but a substantial increase below TS2---a complete reversal as the signature for the transitions. We argued that crystal imperfections, mainly defects, which were considerably enhanced at the surface, resulted in the transition at TS2. ^

Assessing the sources, quantities, and trends on human waste contamination along protected south Florida ecosystem: A chemical tracer based study

The common occurrence of human derived contaminants like pharmaceuticals, steroids and hormones in surface waters has raised the awareness of the role played by the release of treated or untreated sewage in the water quality along sensitive coastal ecosystems. South Florida is home to many important protected environments ranging from wetlands to coral reefs which are in close proximity to large metropolitan cities. Since large portions of South Florida and most of the Florida Keys population are not served by modern sewage treatment plants and rely heavily on the use of inefficient septic systems; a comprehensive survey of selected human waste contamination markers is needed in these areas to assess water quality with respect to non-traditional micro-constituents. ^ This study reports the development and application of new sensitive and selective analytical methods for the fast screening of multiple wastewater tracers, classified as Emergent Pollutants of Concern (EPOC). Novel methods for the trace analysis of non-traditional markers of human-specific contamination such as aminopropanone were developed and used to assess the potential of non-traditional markers as wastewater tracers. ^ During our investigation, surface water samples collected from near shore environments along the South Florida were analyzed for fifteen hormones and steroids, and five commonly detected pharmaceuticals. The compounds most frequently detected were: coprostanol, cholesterol, estrone, β-estradiol, caffeine, triclosan and DEET. Concentrations of caffeine, bisphenol A and DEET were usually higher and more prevalent than the hormonal steroids. In general, it was found that common pharmaceuticals and steroids are widely present in major coastal environments in South Florida. It is also evident that aquatic bodies in heavily urbanized sectors such as the Miami River and Key Largo Harbor contain higher concentrations of several compounds while relatively open bay waters and agricultural areas show reduced chemical signatures. Concentrations of hormones in the Little Venice area of Marathon Key were above the Lowest Observable Effect Levels (LOELs) for several species, indicating that biological resources in this area are at risk. Water quality issues in some of these coastal water environments go beyond eutrophication, thus EPOC should be the target goal for future mitigation projects. ^

Armenia's foreign policy, 1991–2004: Between history and geopolitics

This dissertation is the first systematic study of Armenia’s foreign policy during the post-independence period, between 1991 and 2004. It argues that a small state’s foreign policy is best understood when looking at the regional level. Armenia’s geographic proximity to Iran, Russia and Turkey, places it in an area of heightened geopolitical interest by various great powers. This dissertation explores four sets of relationships with Armenia’s major historical ‘partners’: Russia, Iran, Turkey and the West (Europe and the United States). Each relationship reveals a complex reality of a continuous negotiation between ideas of history, collective memory, nationalism and geopolitics. A detailed study of Armenia’s relations with these powers demonstrates how actors’ relations of amity and enmity are formed to constitute a regional security complex. Turkey represents the ultimate “other”, while both Europe and Iran are seen as ideational “others”, whose role in Armenia’s foreign policy, aside from pragmatic policy considerations, reflects a normative quest. Russia and the United States, on the other hand, represent the powerful structural forces that define the regional security complex, in which Armenia operates. This dissertation argues that although Armenia has been severely constrained in certain foreign policy choices, it was adept at carving a space for action that privileged the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh over other geopolitical imperatives.

Predicting hurricane evacuation decisions: When, how many, and how far

Traffic from major hurricane evacuations is known to cause severe gridlocks on evacuation routes. Better prediction of the expected amount of evacuation traffic is needed to improve the decision-making process for the required evacuation routes and possible deployment of special traffic operations, such as contraflow. The objective of this dissertation is to develop prediction models to predict the number of daily trips and the evacuation distance during a hurricane evacuation. ^ Two data sets from the surveys of the evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Ivan were used in the models' development. The data sets included detailed information on the evacuees, including their evacuation days, evacuation distance, distance to the hurricane location, and their associated socioeconomic characteristics, including gender, age, race, household size, rental status, income, and education level. ^ Three prediction models were developed. The evacuation trip and rate models were developed using logistic regression. Together, they were used to predict the number of daily trips generated before hurricane landfall. These daily predictions allowed for more detailed planning over the traditional models, which predicted the total number of trips generated from an entire evacuation. A third model developed attempted to predict the evacuation distance using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), which was able to account for the spatial variations found among the different evacuation areas, in terms of impacts from the model predictors. All three models were developed using the survey data set from Hurricane Katrina and then evaluated using the survey data set from Hurricane Ivan. ^ All of the models developed provided logical results. The logistic models showed that larger households with people under age six were more likely to evacuate than smaller households. The GWR-based evacuation distance model showed that the household with children under age six, income, and proximity of household to hurricane path, all had an impact on the evacuation distances. While the models were found to provide logical results, it was recognized that they were calibrated and evaluated with relatively limited survey data. The models can be refined with additional data from future hurricane surveys, including additional variables, such as the time of day of the evacuation. ^

An experimental and theoretical analysis of nitric oxide availability in the microcirculation

Nitric Oxide (NO) is produced in the vascular endothelium where it then diffuses to the adjacent smooth muscle cells (SMC) activating agents known to regulate vascular tone. The close proximity of the site of NO production to the red blood cells (RBC) and its known fast consumption by hemoglobin, suggests that the blood will scavenge most of the NO produced. Therefore, it is unclear how NO is able to play its role in accomplishing vasodilation. Investigation of NO production and consumption rates will allow insight into this paradox. DAF-FM is a sensitive NO fluorescence probe widely used for qualitative assessment of cellular NO production. With the aid of a mathematical model of NO/DAF-FM reaction kinetics, experimental studies were conducted to calibrate the fluorescence signal showing that the slope of fluorescent intensity is proportional to [NO]2 and exhibits a saturation dependence on [DAF-FM]. In addition, experimental data exhibited a Km dependence on [NO]. This finding was incorporated into the model elucidating NO 2 as the possible activating agent of DAF-FM. A calibration procedure was formed and applied to agonist stimulated cells, providing an estimated NO release rate of 0.418 ± 0.18 pmol/cm2s. To assess NO consumption by RBCs, measurements of the rate of NO consumption in a gas stream flowing on top of an RBC solution of specified Hematocrit (Hct) was performed. The consumption rate constant (kbl)in porcine RBCs at 25°C and 45% Hct was estimated to be 3500 + 700 s-1. kbl is highly dependent on Hct and can reach up to 9900 + 4000 s-1 for 60% Hct. The nonlinear dependence of kbl on Hct suggests a predominant role for extracellular diffusion in limiting NO uptake. Further simulations showed a linear relationship between varying NO production rates and NO availability in the SMCs utilizing the estimated NO consumption rate. The corresponding SMC [NO] level for the average NO production rate estimated was approximately 15.1 nM. With the aid of experimental and theoretical methods we were able to examine the NO paradox and exhibit that endothelial derived NO is able to escape scavenging by RBCs to diffuse to the SMCs.

Two Decades Out of the Whirlpool: Past (and Possible Future) United States Interventions in Latin America [Student's Paper Series]

This paper examines the history of U.S. interventions in Latin America and attempts to explain their frequency by highlighting two factors – besides security and economic interests – that have made American interventions in Latin America so common. First, immense differences in size and influence between the United States and the States of Latin America have made interventions appear to be a low risk solution to crises that threaten American interests in the region. Second, when U.S government concerns and aspirations for Latin America converge with the general fears and aspirations of American foreign policy, interventions become much more likely. Such a convergence pushes Latin American issues high up the U.S. foreign policy agenda because of the region’s proximity to the United States and the perception that costs of intervening are low. The leads proponents of intervention to begin asking questions like “if we cannot stop communism/revolutions/drug-trafficking in Latin America, where can we stop it?” This article traces how these factors influenced the decision to intervene in Latin America during the era of Dollar Diplomacy and during the Cold War. It concludes with three possible scenarios that could lead to a reemergence of an American interventionist policy in Latin America. It makes the argument that even though the United Sates has not intervened in Latin America during the twenty-two years, it is far from clear that American interventions in Latin America will be consigned to the past.

Preservation of nitric oxide availability as nitrite and nitrosothiols

Nitric Oxide (NO) has been known for long to regulate vessel tone. However, the close proximity of the site of NO production to "sinks" of NO such as hemoglobin (Hb) in blood suggest that blood will scavenge most of the NO produced. Therefore, it is unclear how NO is able to play its physiological roles. The current study deals with means by which this could be understood. Towards studying the role of nitrosothiols and nitrite in preserving NO availability, a study of the kinetics of glutathione (GSH) nitrosation by NO donors in aerated buffered solutions was undertaken first. Results suggest an increase in the rate of the corresponding nitrosothiol (GSNO) formation with an increase in GSH with a half-maximum constant EC50 that depends on NO concentration, thus indicating a significant contribution of NO2 mediated nitrosation in the production of GSNO. Next, the ability of nitrite to be reduced to NO in the smooth muscle cells was evaluated. The NO formed was inhibited by sGC inhibitors and accelerated by activators and was independent of O2 concentration. Nitrite transport mechanisms and effects of exogenous nitrate on transport and reduction of nitrite were examined. The results showed that sGC can mediate nitrite reduction to NO and nitrite is transported across the smooth muscle cell membrane via anion channels, both of which can be attenuated by nitrate. Finally, a 2-D axisymmetric diffusion model was constructed to test the accumulation of NO in the smooth muscle layer from reduction of nitrite. It was observed that at the end of the simulation period with physiological concentrations of nitrite in the smooth muscle cells (SMC), a low sustained NO generated from nitrite reduction could maintain significant sGC activity and might affect vessel tone. The major nitrosating mechanism in the circulation at reduced O2 levels was found to be anaerobic and a Cu+ dependent GSNO reduction activity was found to deliver minor amounts of NO from physiological GSNO levels in the tissue.

Caring and being cared -for: Perceptions of adolescent males at -risk for school failure

This qualitative study used grounded theory methods and purposeful sampling to explore perceptions on caring and being cared-for. Twenty-four adolescent male participants, identified as at-risk for school failure, completed a two phase interview process exploring these phenomena within three relationships; the relationship with the friend, with the most caring person they knew and with the teacher they felt cared for them. ^ Each participant was asked a predetermined set of open questions in an initial semi-structured interview. In addition each participant was encouraged to explore his own reflections on caring. A second interview allowed for member checking and for the participant to continue sharing his meaning of caring and being cared-for. ^ Line by line analysis with open, axial and selective coding was applied to interview transcripts along with a constant comparative method. Results indicated that the core category integrating all other categories was attachment bonding. Participants' stories manifested characteristics of proximity seeking, secure base, safe haven and distress upon involuntary separation from an attachment figure. ^ Strategies facilitating attachment bonding were influenced by the power positions of the relational players. Participants responded positively to the one-caring when they felt cared-for. Results further indicated that participants did not need to feel a sense of belonging in order to feel cared-for. Teacher behaviors indicating openness for authentic connections with students were specific to teacher's friendliness and professional competence. Teachers who nurtured feelings of being cared-for were uncommon in the participants' educational experience. ^ The number of adolescent males leaving high school prematurely is both a personal problem and a social problem. Despite a “mask” of indifference often exhibited by adolescent males at-risk for school failure, teachers might consider the social/emotional needs of these students when implementing the curriculum. In addition, policy makers might consider the social/emotional needs of this vulnerable population when developing programs meant to foster psychological well-being and connectedness for adolescent males at-risk for school failure. ^

A study of the relationship between employee virtuality and technology deviance as mediated by leadership and employee perceptions

Recent studies found that organizations have been investing significant capital in developing teams and employees in geographic areas where labor and resources are considerably cheaper. Furthermore, organizations are moving core operational activities such as research and development and back-office processes to globally distributed teams. ^ However, several factors that are inherent to these virtual teams can have a negative impact on employee perceptions and engagement; specifically, the physical and temporal differences between employees and their supervisors, the lack of meaningful social interaction intrinsic to working relationships, and cultural biases that can be fostered when close, daily interactions is not there to help bridge the dissimilarity. ^ When strategies are not in place to mitigate these deficiencies, it can cause virtual employees to disengage emotionally and intellectually from the organization, or lead them to feel justified in working against the best interest of the company. ^ Past research indicates that although deviant behavior in the workplace is not new, transgressions committed by employees have been increasing significantly every year. Beyond the focus of why employees are motivated to act against the organization, to what extent do the recent changes to the organization’s structure influence this type of behavior through their actions at the macro (organizational) and micro level (leadership). ^ In addition, there is a related phenomenon that has aided the transformation of the workplace—namely, the ubiquity of technology. In the context of workplace deviance, established research has documented an increasing trend of employees utilizing company technology as a medium and amplifier when harming the organization. It is important to understand whether technology has facilitated or hindered workplace deviance by virtue of the technology itself (as a means), and as part of the new employee roles created by the evolving technology (i.e., virtual employees). Therefore, it is important to identify how individual attitudes and behaviors can be affected by an employee’s degree of virtuality. ^ This study will add to the understanding of how social interaction and physical proximity, leadership and other perception factors contribute to the changes organizations are experiencing as their structure evolves and adapts to compete in the new global environment. ^

Boundary Effects on Benthic Microbial Phosphorus Concentrations and Diatom Beta Diversity in a Hydrologically-modified, Nutrient-limited Wetland

Water flow and flooding duration in wetlands influence the structure and productivity of microbial communities partly through their influence on nutrient loading. The effect of flow-regulated nutrient loads is especially relevant for microbial communities in nutrient-poor settings, where delivery controls nutrient uptake rates and the intensity of microbial interactions. We examined the effect of hydrologic history and proximity to water sources on nutrient enrichment of benthic microbial assemblages (periphyton) and on their diatom species composition, along the artificial boundaries of Taylor Slough, a historically phosphorus-depleted drainage of the Florida Everglades. Concentrations of phosphorus in periphyton declined from the wetland boundary near inflow structures to 100-m interior, with spatial and temporal variability in rates dependent on proximity to and magnitude of water flow. Phosphorus availability influenced the beta diversity of diatom assemblages, with higher values near inflow structures where resources were greatest, while interior sites and reference transects contained assemblages with constant composition of taxa considered endemic to the Everglades. This research shows how hydrologic restoration may have unintended consequences when incoming water quality is not regulated, including a replacement of distinctive microbial assemblages by ubiquitous, cosmopolitan ones.

Fish Community Responses to the Combined Effects of Decreased Hydroperiod and Nonnative Fish Invasions in a Karst Wetland: Are Everglades Solution Holes Sinks for Native Fishes?

Short-hydroperiod Everglades wetlands have been disproportionately affected by reductions in freshwater inflows, land conversion and biotic invasions. Severe hydroperiod reductions in these habitats, including the Rocky Glades, coupled with proximity to canals that act as sources of invasions, may limit their ability to support high levels of aquatic production. We examined whether karst solution holes function as dry-down refuges for fishes, providing a source of marsh colonists upon reflooding, by tracking fish abundance, nonnative composition, and survival in solution holes throughout the dry season. We paired field surveys with an in situ nonnative predation experiment that tested the effects of predation by the recent invader, African jewelfish (Hemichromis letourneuxi) on native fishes. Over the 3 years surveyed, a large number of the solution holes dried before the onset of the wet season, while those retaining water had low survivorship and were dominated by nonnatives. In the experiment, mortality of eastern mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) in the presence of African jewelfish was greater than that associated with deteriorating water quality. Under current water management, findings suggest that solution holes are largely sinks for native fishes, given the high frequency of drydown, extensive period of fish residence, and predation by nonnative fishes.