A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.

International stock portfolio selection and performance measures recognizing higher moments of return distributions

Since the seminal works of Markowitz (1952), Sharpe (1964), and Lintner (1965), numerous studies on portfolio selection and performance measure have been based upon the mean-variance framework. However, several researchers (e.g., Arditti (1967, and 1971), Samuelson (1970), and Rubinstein (1973)) argue that the higher moments cannot be neglected unless there is reason to believe that: (i) the asset returns are normally distributed and the investor's utility function is quadratic, or (ii) the empirical evidence demonstrates that higher moments are irrelevant to the investor's decision. Based on the same argument, this dissertation investigates the impact of higher moments of return distributions on three issues concerning the 14 international stock markets.^ First, the portfolio selection with skewness is determined using: the Polynomial Goal Programming in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated. The empirical findings suggest that the return distributions of international stock markets are not normally distributed, and that the incorporation of skewness into an investor's portfolio decision causes a major change in the construction of his optimal portfolio. The evidence also indicates that an investor will trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness. Moreover, when short sales are allowed, investors are better off as they attain higher expected return and skewness simultaneously.^ Second, the performance of international stock markets are evaluated using two types of performance measures: (i) the two-moment performance measures of Sharpe (1966), and Treynor (1965), and (ii) the higher-moment performance measures of Prakash and Bear (1986), and Stephens and Proffitt (1991). The empirical evidence indicates that higher moments of return distributions are significant and relevant to the investor's decision. Thus, the higher moment performance measures should be more appropriate to evaluate the performances of international stock markets. The evidence also indicates that various measures provide a vastly different performance ranking of the markets, albeit in the same direction.^ Finally, the inter-temporal stability of the international stock markets is investigated using the Parhizgari and Prakash (1989) algorithm for the Sen and Puri (1968) test which accounts for non-normality of return distributions. The empirical finding indicates that there is strong evidence to support the stability in international stock market movements. However, when the Anderson test which assumes normality of return distributions is employed, the stability in the correlation structure is rejected. This suggests that the non-normality of the return distribution is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the investigation of inter-temporal stability of international stock markets. ^

Earnings management using estimates and the timing of adoption of accounting standards: An empirical examination of pensions

This study investigates the relationship between adoption timing of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 87 and earnings management after adoption. Earnings management, defined consistent with Schipper (1989), is tested through hypotheses using (1) a portfolio approach and (2) pension rates. One Hypothesis uses a Modified Jones (1991) Model as a proxy for discretionary accruals and the other uses pension rate estimates.^ Statistically significant relationships are found between adoption timing and (1) discretionary accruals and (2) estimated rate-of-return (ROR) on pension plan assets. Early adopting firms tend to have lower discretionary accruals after adoption than on-time adopters. They also tend to use higher ROR estimates which are not supported by higher actual returns. Thus, while early adopters may be using ROR to manage income, this tends to not result in higher discretionary accruals. ^

A comprehensive portfolio construction under stochastic environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. ^ A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: (a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, (b) implement large-scale optimizations, and (c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. ^ The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. ^ The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH). ^

Essays of strategic alliance portfolio configuration—Its performance properties, strategic antecedents and consequential effects on multinational firms' continuing foreign expansion

This dissertation focused on an increasingly prevalent phenomenon in today's global business environment—strategic alliance portfolio. Building on resource-based view, resource dependency theory and real options theory, this dissertation adopted a multi-dimensional perspective to examine the performance implications, strategic antecedents of alliance portfolio configuration, and its strategic effects on firms' decision-making on their continuing foreign expansion. The dissertation consisted of three interrelated essays, each of which dealt with a specific research question. In the first essay I applied a two-dimensional construct that embraces both alliance relations' and alliance partners' attributes to illustrate alliance portfolio configuration. Based on this framework, a longitudinal study was conducted attempting to explore the performance properties of alliance portfolio configuration. The results revealed that alliance diversity and partner diversity have different relative contributions to firms' economic performance. The relationship between alliance portfolio configuration and firm performance was shaped by degree of multinationality in a curvilinear pattern. The second essay attempted to identify the firm level driving forces of alliance portfolio configuration and how these forces interacting with firms' internationalization influence firms' strategic choices on alliance portfolio configuration. The empirical results indicated that past alliance experience, slack resource and firms' brand images are three critical determinants shaping alliance portfolios, but those shaping relationships are conditioned by firms' multinationality. The third essay primarily employed real options theory to build a conceptual framework, revealing how country-, alliance portfolio-, firm-, and industry level factors and their interactions influence firms' strategic decision-making on post-entry continuing expansion in foreign markets. The two empirical studies were resided in global hospitality and travel industries and use panel data to test the relevant theoretical models. Overall, the dissertation advanced and enriched the theoretical domain of alliance portfolio. It particularly shed valuable insights on three fundamental questions in the domain of alliance portfolio research, namely "if and how alliance portfolios contribute to firms' economic performance"; "what determines the appearance of alliance portfolios”; and "how alliance portfolios affect firms' strategic decision-making". This dissertation also extended the international business and strategic management research on service multinationals' foreign expansion and performance.

Best Management Practices in Green Lodging Defined and Explained

Best management practices in green lodging are sustainable or “green” business strategies designed to enhance the lodging product from the perspective of owners, operators and guests. For guests, these practices should enhance their experience while for owners and operators, generate positive returns on investments. Best management practices in green lodging typically starts with a clear understanding of each lodging firm’s role in society, its impact on the environment and strategies developed to mitigate negative environmental externalities generated from the production of lodging goods and services. Negative externalities of hotel operations manifest themselves in energy and water usage, waste generation and air pollution. Hence, best management practices in green lodging are dynamic, cost effective, innovative, stakeholder driven and environmentally sound technical and behavioral solutions that attempt to ameliorate or eliminate the negative environmental externalities associated with lodging operations, while simultaneously generate positive returns on green investments. Thus, best management practices in green lodging should reduce lodging firms’ operating costs, increase guest satisfaction, reduce or eliminate the negative environmental impacts associated with hotel operations while simultaneously enhance business operations.

Marketing A Hospitality Program And Its Product

In his dialogue entitled - Marketing A Hospitality Program and Its Product - Jürgen Chopard, Dr. es Sciences (Economics) Director, Centre International de Glion, Glion, Switzerland, Dr. Chopard initially offers: “The recruitment of qualified personnel is extremely difficult in an industry with a poor image; where career paths are not well defined. The author discusses the employment of marketing management techniques to improve the positioning of hospitality education and create a more attractive perception of the hotel industry.” As outlined in the above paragraph, Dr. Chopard vectors-in on marketing strategies from two standpoints; the educational side with its focus on curriculum, and the larger, industry side with its emphasis on public perception and service. These are not necessarily, nor should they be viewed as disparate elements. “ Although some professionals may see schools of hospitality education catering to two markets, students on one hand and industry on the other, in fact, their needs should be viewed as the same and hence a single market,” Dr. Chopard says to bolster his assertion. “The marketing concept is a management orientation that holds that the key task of the organization is to determine the needs and wants of target markets and to adapt the organization to delivering the desired satisfactions more effectively and efficiently than its competitor,” the author confides, with an attribution. From these information/definition leanings, Dr. Chopard continues on a path that promotes the Centre International de Glion, Glion, Switzerland, which he is affiliated with. Why, because they endorse the same principles he is explaining to you. That’s not a bad thing. Essentially, what Dr. Chopard wants you to know is, education and business management are synonymous and therefore should share the same marketing designs and goals. “It is hard to believe that as critically important a sector as education does not use for its own management the techniques which it teaches and which have largely been proved in other fields,” the author provides as counterpoint. Since pedagogical needs so closely relate to the more pragmatic needs of the industry in general, these elements should seek to compliment and engage each other, in fact, collaboration is imperative, Dr. Chopard expresses a priori. “The cooperation of future employers is indispensable in the preparation of the product, so that it is capable of providing the expected services. The need for close relations between training establishments and the hotel and catering industry seems obvious,” Dr. Chopard says. The author reveals some flaws in hospitality marketing strategy, and then contrasts these against how a successful strategy could/should be implemented.

E=MC3 Energy Equals Management's Continued Cost Concerns

E=MC³ Energy Equals Management's Continued Cost Concern, is an essay written by Fritz G. Hagenmeyer, Associate Professor, School of Hospitality Management at Florida International University. In the writing, Hagenmeyer initially tenders: “Energy problems in the hospitality industry can be contained or reduced, yielding elevated profits as a result of applied, quality management principles. The concepts, processes and procedures presented in this article are intended to aid present and future managers to become more effective with a sharpened focus on profitability.” This article is an overview of energy efficiency and the management of such. In an expanding energy consumption market with its escalating costs, energy management has become an ever increasing concern and component of responsible hospitality management, Hagenmeyer will have you know. “In endeavoring to "manage" on a day-to-day basis a functioning hospitality building's energy system, the person in charge must take on the role of Justice with her scales, attempting to balance the often varying comfort needs of guests and occupants with the invariable rising costs of energy utilized to generate and maintain such comfort conditions, since comfort is seen as an integral part of the "service," "product," or "price/value” perception of patrons,” says Hagenmeyer. In contrast to what was thought in the mid point of this century - that energy would be abundant and cheap - the reality has set-in that this is not the case; not by a long shot. The author wants you to be aware that energy costs in buildings are a force to be reckoned with; a major expense to be sure. “Since 1973, "energy-conscious design" has begun to become part of the repertoire of architects, design engineers, and construction companies,” Hagenmeyer states. “For instance, whereas office buildings of the early 1970s might have used 400,000 British Thermal Units (BTUs) per square foot year, new buildings are going up that use 55,000 to 65,000 BTUs per square foot year,” Hagenmeyer, like an incandescent bulb, illuminates you. Hagenmeyer references Robert E. Aulbach’s article - Energy Management – when informing you that the hospitality manager should not become complacent in addressing the energy cost issue, but should and must maintain a diligent focus on the problem. Hagenmeyer also makes reference to the Middle East War and to OPEC, and their influence on energy prices. In closing, Hagenmeyer suggests an - Energy Management Action Plan – which he outlines for you.

Toward A Better Understanding of the Evolution of Hotel Development: A Discussion of Product-specific Lodging Demand

In his essay - Toward a Better Understanding of the Evolution of Hotel Development: A Discussion of Product-Specific Lodging Demand - by John A. Carnella, Consultant, Laventhol & Horwath, cpas, New York, Carnella initially describes his piece by stating: “The diversified hotel product in the united states lodging market has Resulted in latent room-night demand, or supply-driven demand resulting from the introduction of a lodging product which caters to a specific set of hotel patrons. The subject has become significant as the lodging market has moved toward segmentation with regard to guest room offerings. The author proposes that latent demand is a tangible, measurable phenomenon best understood in light of the history of the guest room product from its infancy to its present state.” The article opens with an ephemeral depiction of hotel development in the United States, both pre’ and post World War II. To put it succinctly, the author wants you to know that the advent of the inter-state highway system changed the complexion of the hotel industry in the U.S. “Two essential ingredients were necessary for the next phase of hotel development in this country. First was the establishment of the magnificently intricate infrastructure which facilitated motor vehicle transportation in and around the then 48 states of the nation,” says Carnella. “The second event…was the introduction of affordable highway travel. Carnella goes on to say that the next – big thing – in hotel evolution was the introduction of affordable air travel. “With the airways filled with potential lodging guests, developers moved next to erect a new genre of hotel, the airport hotel,” Carnella advances his picture. Growth progressed with the arrival of the suburban hotel concept, which wasn’t fueled by developments in transportation, but by changes in people’s living habits, i.e. suburban affiliations as opposed to urban and city population aggregates. The author explores the distinctions between full-service and limited service lodging operations. “The market of interest with consideration to the extended-stay facility is one dominated by corporate office parks,” Carnella proceeds. These evolutional states speak to latent demand, and even further to segmentation of the market. “Latent demand… is a product-generated phenomenon in which the number of potential hotel guests increases as the direct result of the introduction of a new lodging facility,” Carnella brings his unique insight to the table with regard to the specialization process. The demand is already there; just waiting to be tapped. In closing, “…there must be a consideration of the unique attributes of a lodging facility relative to its ability to attract guests to a subject market, just as there must be an examination of the property's ability to draw guests from within the subject market,” Carnella proposes.

The Influence of Social Responsibility Image Relative to Product and Service Quality on Brand Loyalty: An Exploratory Study of Quick-service Restaurants

Social responsibility (SR) is becoming an increasingly significant component of many firms’ strategic planning decisions. Research has shown that consumers tend to reward socially responsible behavior. However, there has been little testing of the construct in the hospitality industry. Additionally, when other important variables that influence consumer brand loyalty are considered, will brand social responsibility image (BSRI) still play a significant role? This study investigates the importance of SR and its impact on brand loyalty, relative to product quality and service quality in the quick-service restaurant industry. The authors were also interested to learn whether BSRI impacted consumers' image of product and service quality. It was found that BSRI had a positive impact on brand loyalty, product quality, and service quality. However, product quality was a significantly stronger predictor of brand loyalty than BSRI. Where the vast majority of studies of SR have utilized scenario analysis of hypothetical firms, this study utilizes consumers' perceptions of a real-world firm.

Best Management Practices in Green Lodging Defined and Explained

Best management practices in green lodging are sustainable or “green” business strategies designed to enhance the lodging product from the perspective of owners, operators and guests. For guests, these practices should enhance their experience while for owners and operators, generate positive returns on investments. Best management practices in green lodging typically starts with a clear understanding of each lodging firm’s role in society, its impact on the environment and strategies developed to mitigate negative environmental externalities generated from the production of lodging goods and services. Negative externalities of hotel operations manifest themselves in energy and water usage, waste generation and air pollution. Hence, best management practices in green lodging are dynamic, cost effective, innovative, stakeholder driven and environmentally sound technical and behavioral solutions that attempt to ameliorate or eliminate the negative environmental externalities associated with lodging operations, while simultaneously generate positive returns on green investments. Thus, best management practices in green lodging should reduce lodging firms’ operating costs, increase guest satisfaction, reduce or eliminate the negative environmental impacts associated with hotel operations while simultaneously enhance business operations.

A Comprehensive Portfolio Construction Under Stochastic Environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, b) implement large-scale optimizations, and c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH).