A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.

The politics of professional sports facility subsidies in Florida

Political leaders in urban settings regularly confront difficult decisions over how to distribute public funds. Those decisions may be even more controversial when they involve public subsidies of professional sports facilities. Yet, state and local governments in the United States have granted billions of dollars in financial and land-based subsidies for professional sports facilities over the past two decades, raising questions about how these types of corporate welfare decisions are made by local leaders. Scholarship on urban politics and community power suggests a number of theories to explain political influence. They include elitism, pluralism, political economy and growth machines, urban regimes, coalition theory, and minority empowerment. My hypothesis is that coalition theory, a theory that argues that public policy decisions are made by shifting, ad hoc alliances within a community, best describes these subsidy decisions. ^ To test this hypothesis I employ a public policy process model and develop a framework of variables that is used to methodically examine four sports facilities funding decisions in two Florida counties between 1977 and 1998: Joe Robbie Stadium and the American Airlines Arena in Miami-Dade, and the Ice Palace Arena and the Raymond James Stadium in Hillsborough County. The framework includes six variables that permit a rigorous examination of the actors involved in the decision, their interactions, and the political environment within which they operate. The variables are formal political structure, informal sector, subsidy proponents, subsidy opponents, public policy options, and public opinion. ^ This research rests on qualitative data gathered from interviews of public and private officials involved in subsidy decisions, public records, and media reports Employing a case study analysis, I offer a rich description of the decision making process to publicly fund sports stadiums and arenas in Florida. My findings confirm that the best theory to explain decisions to subsidize sports facilities is one in which short-term, temporary coalitions are formed to accomplish policy goals. ^

Determinants of local government pension funding: Empirical evidence from Florida

The financial community is well aware that continued underfunding of state and local government pension plans poses many public policy and fiduciary management concerns. However, a well-defined theoretical rationale has not been developed to explain why and how public sector pension plans underfund. This study uses three methods: a survey of national pension experts, an incomplete covariance panel method, and field interviews.^ A survey of national public sector pension experts was conducted to provide a conceptual framework by which underfunding could be evaluated. Experts suggest that plan design, fiscal stress, and political culture factors impact underfunding. However, experts do not agree with previous research findings that unions actively pursue underfunding to secure current wage increases.^ Within the conceptual framework and determinants identified by experts, several empirical regularities are documented for the first time. Analysis of 173 local government pension plans, observed from 1987 to 1992, was conducted. Findings indicate that underfunding occurs in plans that have lower retirement ages, increased costs due to benefit enhancements, when the sponsor faces current year operating deficits, or when a local government relies heavily on inelastic revenue sources. Results also suggest that elected officials artificially inflate interest rate assumptions to reduce current pension costs, consequently shifting these costs to future generations. In concurrence with some experts there is no data to support the assumption that highly unionized employees secure more funding than less unionized employees.^ Empirical results provide satisfactory but not overwhelming statistical power, and only minor predictive capacity. To further explore why underfunding occurs, field interviews were carried out with 62 local government officials. Practitioners indicated that perceived fiscal stress, the willingness of policymakers to advance funding, bargaining strategies used by union officials, apathy by employees and retirees, pension board composition, and the level of influence by internal pension experts has an impact on funding outcomes.^ A pension funding process model was posited by triangulating the expert survey, empirical findings, and field survey results. The funding process model should help shape and refine our theoretical knowledge of state and local government pension underfunding in the future. ^

Measuring the arts: The case of Dade County nonprofits arts organizations

The theoretical analysis and research of cultural activities have been limited, for the most part, to the study of the role the public sector plays in the funding and support of nonprofit Arts organizations. The tools used to evaluate this intervention follow a macroeconomic perspective and fail to account for microeconomic principles and assumptions that affect the behavior of these organizations. This dissertation describes through conceptual models the behavior of the agents involved in the artistic process and the economic sectors affected by it. The first paper deals with issues related to economic impact studies and formulates a set of guidelines that should be followed when conducting this type of study. One of the ways to assess more accurately the impact culture has in a community is by assuming that artists can re-create the public space of a blight community and get it ready for a regeneration process. The second paper of this dissertation assumes just that and explains in detail all the cultural, political, economic and sociological interactions that are taking place in the Arts-led regeneration process in Miami Beach, Florida. The paper models the behavior of these agents by indicating what their goals and decision process mechanisms are. The results give support to the claim that the public space artists create in a city actually stimulate development. The third paper discusses the estimation of a demand function for artistic activities, specifically the New World Symphony (NWS) located in Miami Beach, Florida. The behavior of the consumers and producers of NWS' concerts is modeled. The results support the notion that consumers make their decisions based, among other things, on the perceived value these concerts have. Economists engage in the analysis of the effects of cultural activities in a community since many cities rely on them for their development. The history of many communities is not told by their assembly lines and machinery anymore but by their centers of entertainment, hotels and restaurants. Many cities in Europe and North America that have seen the manufacturing sector migrate to the South are trying to face the demands of the new economy by using the Arts as catalysts for development. ^

An incremental multilinear system for human face learning and recognition

This dissertation establishes a novel system for human face learning and recognition based on incremental multilinear Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Most of the existing face recognition systems need training data during the learning process. The system as proposed in this dissertation utilizes an unsupervised or weakly supervised learning approach, in which the learning phase requires a minimal amount of training data. It also overcomes the inability of traditional systems to adapt to the testing phase as the decision process for the newly acquired images continues to rely on that same old training data set. Consequently when a new training set is to be used, the traditional approach will require that the entire eigensystem will have to be generated again. However, as a means to speed up this computational process, the proposed method uses the eigensystem generated from the old training set together with the new images to generate more effectively the new eigensystem in a so-called incremental learning process. In the empirical evaluation phase, there are two key factors that are essential in evaluating the performance of the proposed method: (1) recognition accuracy and (2) computational complexity. In order to establish the most suitable algorithm for this research, a comparative analysis of the best performing methods has been carried out first. The results of the comparative analysis advocated for the initial utilization of the multilinear PCA in our research. As for the consideration of the issue of computational complexity for the subspace update procedure, a novel incremental algorithm, which combines the traditional sequential Karhunen-Loeve (SKL) algorithm with the newly developed incremental modified fast PCA algorithm, was established. In order to utilize the multilinear PCA in the incremental process, a new unfolding method was developed to affix the newly added data at the end of the previous data. The results of the incremental process based on these two methods were obtained to bear out these new theoretical improvements. Some object tracking results using video images are also provided as another challenging task to prove the soundness of this incremental multilinear learning method.

A nested Petri net framework for modeling and analyzing multi-agent systems

In the past two decades, multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a new paradigm for conceptualizing large and complex distributed software systems. A multi-agent system view provides a natural abstraction for both the structure and the behavior of modern-day software systems. Although there were many conceptual frameworks for using multi-agent systems, there was no well established and widely accepted method for modeling multi-agent systems. This dissertation research addressed the representation and analysis of multi-agent systems based on model-oriented formal methods. The objective was to provide a systematic approach for studying MAS at an early stage of system development to ensure the quality of design. ^ Given that there was no well-defined formal model directly supporting agent-oriented modeling, this study was centered on three main topics: (1) adapting a well-known formal model, predicate transition nets (PrT nets), to support MAS modeling; (2) formulating a modeling methodology to ease the construction of formal MAS models; and (3) developing a technique to support machine analysis of formal MAS models using model checking technology. PrT nets were extended to include the notions of dynamic structure, agent communication and coordination to support agent-oriented modeling. An aspect-oriented technique was developed to address the modularity of agent models and compositionality of incremental analysis. A set of translation rules were defined to systematically translate formal MAS models to concrete models that can be verified through the model checker SPIN (Simple Promela Interpreter). ^ This dissertation presents the framework developed for modeling and analyzing MAS, including a well-defined process model based on nested PrT nets, and a comprehensive methodology to guide the construction and analysis of formal MAS models.^

A deontic analysis of inter -organizational control requirements

This research focuses on the design and verification of inter-organizational controls. Instead of looking at a documentary procedure, which is the flow of documents and data among the parties, the research examines the underlying deontic purpose of the procedure, the so-called deontic process, and identifies control requirements to secure this purpose. The vision of the research is a formal theory for streamlining bureaucracy in business and government procedures. ^ Underpinning most inter-organizational procedures are deontic relations, which are about rights and obligations of the parties. When all parties trust each other, they are willing to fulfill their obligations and honor the counter parties’ rights; thus controls may not be needed. The challenge is in cases where trust may not be assumed. In these cases, the parties need to rely on explicit controls to reduce their exposure to the risk of opportunism. However, at present there is no analytic approach or technique to determine which controls are needed for a given contracting or governance situation. ^ The research proposes a formal method for deriving inter-organizational control requirements based on static analysis of deontic relations and dynamic analysis of deontic changes. The formal method will take a deontic process model of an inter-organizational transaction and certain domain knowledge as inputs to automatically generate control requirements that a documentary procedure needs to satisfy in order to limit fraud potentials. The deliverables of the research include a formal representation namely Deontic Petri Nets that combine multiple modal logics and Petri nets for modeling deontic processes, a set of control principles that represent an initial formal theory on the relationships between deontic processes and documentary procedures, and a working prototype that uses model checking technique to identify fraud potentials in a deontic process and generate control requirements to limit them. Fourteen scenarios of two well-known international payment procedures—cash in advance and documentary credit—have been used to test the prototype. The results showed that all control requirements stipulated in these procedures could be derived automatically.^

Work Creativity as a Dimension of Job Performance

To stay competitive, many employers are looking for creative and innovative employees to add value to their organization. However, current models of job performance overlook creative performance as an important criterion to measure in the workplace. The purpose of this dissertation is to conduct two separate but related studies on creative performance that aim to provide support that creative performance should be included in models of job performance, and ultimately included in performance evaluations in organizations. Study 1 is a meta-analysis on the relationship between creative performance and task performance, and the relationship between creative performance and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). Overall, I found support for a medium to large corrected correlation for both the creative performance-task performance (ρ = .51) and creative performance-OCB (ρ = .49) relationships. Further, I also found that both rating-source and study location were significant moderators. Study 2 is a process model that includes creative performance alongside task performance and OCB as the outcome variables. I test a model in which both individual differences (specifically: conscientiousness, extraversion, proactive personality, and self-efficacy) and job characteristics (autonomy, feedback, and supervisor support) predict creative performance, task performance, and OCB through engagement as a mediator. In a sample of 299 employed individuals, I found that all the individual differences and job characteristics were positively correlated with all three performance criteria. I also looked at these relationships in a multiple regression framework and most of the individual differences and job characteristics still predicted the performance criteria. In the mediation analyses, I found support for engagement as a significant mediator of the individual differences-performance and job characteristics-performance relationships. Taken together, Study 1 and Study 2 support the notion that creative performance should be included in models of job performance. Implications for both researchers and practitioners alike are discussed.

A Deontic Analysis of Inter-Organizational Control Requirements

This research focuses on the design and verification of inter-organizational controls. Instead of looking at a documentary procedure, which is the flow of documents and data among the parties, the research examines the underlying deontic purpose of the procedure, the so-called deontic process, and identifies control requirements to secure this purpose. The vision of the research is a formal theory for streamlining bureaucracy in business and government procedures. Underpinning most inter-organizational procedures are deontic relations, which are about rights and obligations of the parties. When all parties trust each other, they are willing to fulfill their obligations and honor the counter parties’ rights; thus controls may not be needed. The challenge is in cases where trust may not be assumed. In these cases, the parties need to rely on explicit controls to reduce their exposure to the risk of opportunism. However, at present there is no analytic approach or technique to determine which controls are needed for a given contracting or governance situation. The research proposes a formal method for deriving inter-organizational control requirements based on static analysis of deontic relations and dynamic analysis of deontic changes. The formal method will take a deontic process model of an inter-organizational transaction and certain domain knowledge as inputs to automatically generate control requirements that a documentary procedure needs to satisfy in order to limit fraud potentials. The deliverables of the research include a formal representation namely Deontic Petri Nets that combine multiple modal logics and Petri nets for modeling deontic processes, a set of control principles that represent an initial formal theory on the relationships between deontic processes and documentary procedures, and a working prototype that uses model checking technique to identify fraud potentials in a deontic process and generate control requirements to limit them. Fourteen scenarios of two well-known international payment procedures -- cash in advance and documentary credit -- have been used to test the prototype. The results showed that all control requirements stipulated in these procedures could be derived automatically.

The relationship between student characteristics, computer literacy,technology acceptance, and distance education student satisfaction

The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between the characteristics of distance education students, their computer literacy and technology acceptance and distance education course satisfaction. The theoretical framework for this study will apply Rogers and Havelock's Innovation, Diffusion & Utilization theories to distance education. It is hypothesized that technology acceptance and computer competency will influence the student course satisfaction and explain the decision to adopt or reject distance education curriculum and technology. Distance education delivery, Institutional Support, Convenience, Interactivity and five distance education technologies were studied. The data were collected by a survey questionnaire sent to four Florida universities. Three hundred and nineteen and students returned the questionnaire. A factor and regression analysis on three measure of satisfaction revealed significant difference between the three main factors related to the overall satisfaction of distance education students and their adoption of distance education technology as medium of learning. Computer literacy is significantly related to greater overall student satisfaction. However, when competing with other factors such as delivery, support, interactivity, and convenience, computer literacy is not significant. Results indicate that age and status are the only two student characteristics to be significant. Distance education technology acceptance is positively related to higher overall satisfaction. Innovativeness is also positively related to student overall satisfaction. Finally, the technology used relates positively to greater satisfaction levels within the educational experience. Additional research questions were investigated and provided insights into the innovation decision process.

Work creativity as a dimension of job performance

To stay competitive, many employers are looking for creative and innovative employees to add value to their organization. However, current models of job performance overlook creative performance as an important criterion to measure in the workplace. The purpose of this dissertation is to conduct two separate but related studies on creative performance that aim to provide support that creative performance should be included in models of job performance, and ultimately included in performance evaluations in organizations. Study 1 is a meta-analysis on the relationship between creative performance and task performance, and the relationship between creative performance and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). Overall, I found support for a medium to large corrected correlation for both the creative performance-task performance (ρ = .51) and creative performance-OCB (ρ = .49) relationships. Further, I also found that both rating-source and study location were significant moderators. Study 2 is a process model that includes creative performance alongside task performance and OCB as the outcome variables. I test a model in which both individual differences (specifically: conscientiousness, extraversion, proactive personality, and self-efficacy) and job characteristics (autonomy, feedback, and supervisor support) predict creative performance, task performance, and OCB through engagement as a mediator. In a sample of 299 employed individuals, I found that all the individual differences and job characteristics were positively correlated with all three performance criteria. I also looked at these relationships in a multiple regression framework and most of the individual differences and job characteristics still predicted the performance criteria. In the mediation analyses, I found support for engagement as a significant mediator of the individual differences-performance and job characteristics-performance relationships. Taken together, Study 1 and Study 2 support the notion that creative performance should be included in models of job performance. Implications for both researchers and practitioners alike are discussed.^

The role of overseas Chinese investment in the emerging countries of Southeast and East Asia: A Confucian model of the foreign direct investment decision-making process using factors unconsidered in the West

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of the foreign direct investment location decision making process through the examination of non-Western investors and their investment strategies in non-traditional markets. This was accomplished through in-depth personal interviews with 50 Overseas Chinese business owners and executives in several different industries from Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand about 97 separate investment projects in Southeast and East Asia, including The Philippines, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, Taiwan, and Mainland China.^ Traditional factors utilized in Western models of the foreign direct investment decision making process are reviewed, as well as literature on Asian management systems and the current state of business practices in emerging countries of Southeast and East Asia. Because of the lack of institutionalization in these markets and the strong influences of Confucian and patriarchal value systems on the Overseas Chinese, it was suspected that while some aspects of Western rational economic models of foreign direct investment are utilized, these models are insufficient in this context, and thus are not fully generalizable to the unique conditions of the Overseas Chinese business network in the region without further modification.^ Thus, other factors based on a Confucian value system need to be integrated into these models. Results from the analysis of structured interviews suggest Overseas Chinese businesses rely more heavily on their network and traditional Confucian values than rational economic factors when making their foreign direct investment location decisions in emerging countries in Asia. This effect is moderated by the firm's industry and the age of the firm's owners. ^

A qualitative analysis of the lived experience of nursing staff developers in the process of changing to a new educational model

The purpose of this study was to document and critically analyze the lived experience of selected nursing staff developers in the process of moving toward a new model for hospital nursing education. Eleven respondents were drawn from a nation-wide population of about two hundred individuals involved in nursing staff development. These subjects were responsible for the implementation of the Performance Based Development System (PBDS) in their institutions.^ A purposive, criterion-based sampling technique was used with respondents being selected according to size of hospital, primary responsibility for orchestration of the change, influence over budgetary factors and managerial responsibility for PBDS. Data were gathered by the researcher through both in-person and telephone interviews. A semi-structured interview guide, designed by the researcher was used, and respondents were encouraged to amplify on their recollections as desired. Audiotapes were transcribed and resulting computer files were analyzed using the program "Martin". Answers to interview questions were compiled and reported across cases. The data was then reviewed a second time and interpreted for emerging themes and patterns.^ Two types of verification were used in the study. Internal verification was done through interview transcript review and feedback by respondents. External verification was done through review and feedback on data analysis by readers who were experienced in management of staff development departments.^ All respondents were female, so Gilligan's concept of the "ethic of care" was examined as a decision making strategy. Three levels of caring which influenced decision making were found. They were caring: (a) for the organization, (b) for the employee, and (c) for the patient. The four existentials of the lived experience, relationality, corporeality, temporality and spatiality were also examined to reveal the everydayness of making change. ^

Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors’ sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, “ Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices”, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, “Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm”, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, “Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection”, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.