Drivers of Decadal-Scale Change in Southern Everglades Wetland Macrophyte Communities of the Coastal Ecotone

Understanding the relationships between hydrology and salinity and plant community structure and production is critical to allow predictions of wetland responses to altered water management, changing precipitation patterns and rising sea-level. We addressed how salinity, water depth, hydroperiod, canal inflows, and local precipitation control marsh macrophyte aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and structure in the coastal ecotone of the southern Everglades. We contrasted responses in two watersheds - Taylor Slough (TS) and C-111 - systems that have and will continue to experience changes in water management. Based on long-term trajectories in plant responses, we found continued evidence of increasing water levels and length of inundation in the C-111 watershed south of the C-111 canal. We also found strong differentiation among sites in upper TS that was dependent on hydrology. Finally, salinity, local precipitation and freshwater discharge from upstream explained over 80 % of the variance in Cladium ANPP at a brackish water site in TS. Moreover, our study showed that, while highly managed, the TS and C-111 watersheds maintain legacies in spatial pattern that would facilitate hydrologic restoration. Based on the trajectories in Cladium and Eleocharis, shifts in plant community structure could occur within 5–10 years of sustained water management change.

Relating precipitation and water management to nutrient concentrations in the oligotrophic ‘‘upside-down’’ estuaries of the Florida Everglades

We present 8 yr of long-term water quality, climatological, and water management data for 17 locations in Everglades National Park, Florida. Total phosphorus (P) concentration data from freshwater sites (typically ,0.25 mmol L21, or 8 mg L21) indicate the oligotrophic, P-limited nature of this large freshwater–estuarine landscape. Total P concentrations at estuarine sites near the Gulf of Mexico (average ø0.5 m mol L21) demonstrate the marine source for this limiting nutrient. This ‘‘upside down’’ phenomenon, with the limiting nutrient supplied by the ocean and not the land, is a defining characteristic of the Everglade landscape. We present a conceptual model of how the seasonality of precipitation and the management of canal water inputs control the marine P supply, and we hypothesize that seasonal variability in water residence time controls water quality through internal biogeochemical processing. Low freshwater inflows during the dry season increase estuarine residence times, enabling local processes to control nutrient availability and water quality. El Nin˜o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events tend to mute the seasonality of rainfall without altering total annual precipitation inputs. The Nin˜o3 ENSO index (which indicates an ENSO event when positive and a La Nin˜a event when negative) was positively correlated with both annual rainfall and the ratio of dry season to wet season precipitation. This ENSO-driven disruption in seasonal rainfall patterns affected salinity patterns and tended to reduce marine inputs of P to Everglades estuaries. ENSO events also decreased dry season residence times, reducing the importance of estuarine nutrient processing. The combination of variable water management activities and interannual differences in precipitation patterns has a strong influence on nutrient and salinity patterns in Everglades estuaries.

Regional climate gradients in precipitation and temperature in response to climate teleconnections in the Greater Everglades ecosystem of South Florida

Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 101–102 km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.