World coffee markets and national coffee parastatals since 1989: A comparative study of Colombia and Cote d'Ivoire

The International Coffee Agreements (ICA) involved the majority of nations producing and consuming coffee and provided relative economic stability to the coffee sectors of the exporting Third World countries. This study focuses on the serious impact of the 1989 collapse of the ICA on the domestic coffee sectors of Colombia and Côte d'Ivoire. In particular, the dissertation examines the role of the Colombian and Ivoirian coffee parastatals, the Federacion Nacional de Cafeteros de Colombia and the Caisse de Stabilisation et Soutien des Prix des Produits Agricoles, during the crisis and their transformation by it. ^ The theoretical framework employed in this study is borrowed from the literature on state-society relations. The methodology includes: in-depth analysis of the historical roles of the parastatal agencies in coffee production, state-society relations and economic development in Colombia and Côte d'Ivoire; interviews with parastatal administrators, producers and other knowledgeable informants in both countries; and a comprehensive review of newspaper articles and official statements of coffee policy published in Colombia and Côte d'Ivoire. prior to, during, and after the crisis. ^ The Colombian and Ivoirian coffee sectors and their producers faced serious economic and social problems following the drop in coffee prices. The coffee parastatals in Colombia and Côte d'lvoire first lost some of their responsibilities following the world coffee crisis. The Caisse was in the end eliminated while FEDECAFE struggled to remain in existence. Along the way, both entities faced protests from disgruntled coffee producers, who organized politically for the first time in their nations' histories. I argue that the outcome for the parastatals depended in part on the conditions of their formation, particularly the level of societal involvement in their creation. I also posit that the country's dependence on foreign aid played a key role in the fate of the parastatals. ^ This dissertation concludes that developments in the Colombian and Ivoirian coffee sectors have significantly contributed to the creation of the difficult political and economic conditions of both countries today. ^

Contemporary aspects of dividends: Before and during the financial crisis

The number of dividend paying firms has been on the decline since the popularity of stock repurchases in the 1980s, and the recent financial crisis has brought about a wave of dividend reductions and omissions. This dissertation examined the U.S. firms and American Depository Receipts that are listed on the U.S. equity exchanges according to their dividend paying history in the previous twelve quarters. While accounting for the state of the economy, the firm’s size, profitability, earned equity, and growth opportunities, it determines whether or not the firm will pay a dividend in the next quarter. It also examined the likelihood of a dividend change. Further, returns of firms were examined according to their dividend paying history and the state of the economy using the Fama-French three-factor model. Using forward, backward, and step-wise selection logistic regressions, the results show that firms with a history of regular and uninterrupted dividend payments are likely to continue to pay dividends, while firms that do not have a history of regular dividend payments are not likely to begin to pay dividends or continue to do so. The results of a set of generalized polytomous logistic regressions imply that dividend paying firms are more likely to reduce dividend payments during economic expansions, as opposed to recessions. Also the analysis of returns using the Fama-French three factor model reveals that dividend paying firms are earning significant abnormal positive returns. As a special case, a similar analysis of dividend payment and dividend change was applied to American Depository Receipts that trade on the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX exchanges and are issued by the Bank of New York Mellon. Returns of American Depository Receipts were examined using the Fama-French two-factor model for international firms. The results of the generalized polytomous logistic regression analyses indicate that dividend paying status and economic conditions are also important for dividend level change of American Depository Receipts, and Fama-French two-factor regressions alone do not adequately explain returns for these securities.

Changing Guest Preferences and Marketing Challenges In the Resort Industry

Resorts in the future will be feeling the effect of a number of changes in the industry. Changing demographics, economic conditions and the changing priorities of resort guests will play major roles in the future success of resort properties. The authors stress that future resort marketing should emphasize the expansion of current market segments, the creation of new market segments, and hte expansion of qualirty services.

Relationship between Changes in Cash Flow and Investments in Publicy Traded Restaurant Firms in the United States

This research investigated the relationship between investments in fixed assets and free cash flows of U.S. restaurant firms while controlling for future investment opportunities and financial constraints. It also investigated investment and cash-flow sensitivity in the context of economic conditions. Results suggested that investments in small firms (with higher financial constraints) had relatively weaker sensitivity to cash flows than investments in large firms (with higher sensitivity). Controlling for economic conditions did not significantly change results. While the debate over sensitivity of investments to cash flows remains unresolved, it has not been explored widely in industry contexts, especially in services such as the restaurant industry. In addition to its contribution to this literature, this paper provides implications for cash-flow management in publicly traded restaurant companies.

Timeshare Owner Preferences - An Analysis of Program and Service Relationships during Recessionary Times

Since the 1970s various industry studies have indicated that the vacation ownership industry has enjoyed unprecedented growth in unit sales, resort growth, and the number of owners (American Resort Devleopment Association [ARDA], 2007; ARDA, 2009a; ARDA, 2009b). However, due to the recent economic downturn these growth metrics are no longer obtainable. This external impact has caused developers to retrench and therefore reflect upon their existing product and service offerings, financial metrics, and consumer markets (ARDA, 2010a; ARDA 2010b). The crux of these findings indicates that the industry has shifted to maintaining and enhancing product and service offerings as a reaction to changing economic conditions. The findings reported in the body of this manuscript represent product and service preferences as collected from a random data pull of their existing ownership base. The study also revealed current preferences of timeshare owners with relation to services provided and products/amenities offered. Management implications and limitations of the current study are discussed.

Democracy promotion and Turkey

The dissertation documented the degree of Turkey's involvement in the promotion of democracy in the Arab Middle East (ME). Initially, I investigated why and under what conditions Turkey promotes democracy in the ME, and then I explained strategies through which Turkey promotes democracy in the region. I applied the neo-classical realist theoretical framework and a mixed methodology in the research, and I provided evidence from two sources: face-to-face interviews with the Turkish and foreign officials and common citizens, and the statistical data from institutions, such as the OECD, Turkish Statistical Institute, and World Bank.^ My research indicates that Turkey promotes democracy through seven channels. These channels are official development assistance (ODA), mentoring, demonstrative effect, normative pressure, conditionality, military power, enlargement, and civil society organizations. Turkey promotes democracy in the ME for three substantial reasons: first, to advance its security and economic interests; second, to improve the political, social, and economic conditions of people living in the region; and third, to create long-term regional stability, crucial for cooperation in economic and security realms.^ I attempted to engage in debates with two distinct, but interrelated fields of comparative politics and international relations. My most important contribution to the field is that I documented Turkey's case of democracy promotion regarding the degree of Turkey's involvement in this endeavor, its strategies, specificities, and effectiveness in the region. I also contribute to the field as I explained the difference between democracy promotion policies of a regional power, such as Turkey, and global powers, such as the US. I further engaged in discussions that illuminate some aspects of the interplay between the identity and strategic interests in states' foreign policy decisions.^

Matrifocality and child shifting among the low income earners in Jamaica

Jamaican family structures have long felt the impact of unstable internal economic conditions and high volume of labor demands originating from England, Canada, the United States, and other larger societies. In response to the economic conditions and labor demands, increasing numbers of Jamaican women have migrated away from home, both within Jamaica and to other countries. Subsequently, many Jamaicans' households are restructured using a method called child shifting. This refers to "the relocation of children between households." Using three major theoretical paradigms: cultural diffusion, social pathology, and structural functionalism, this study explores the literature of child shifting to understand how economic conditions influence matrifocal families and in particular their child rearing practices. This study employs the structural functionalism paradigm's focus on "adaptive responses" to find plausible explanations for child shifting patterns. The primary premise of the "adaptive responses" approach is that economic marginality leads to certain adaptive responses in residential, kinship, and child rearing patterns. This study finds certain adjustment problems associated with child shifting. These include shifted children developing feelings of abandonment, of anxiety, of loss, and having difficulty trusting after the shifting occurs. These costs may outweigh the benefits of child shifting.

World coffee markets and national coffee parastatals since 1989: a comparative study of Colombia and Cote D'ivoire

The International Coffee Agreements (ICA) involved the majority of nations producing and consuming coffee and provided relative economic stability to the coffee sectors of the exporting Third World countries. This study focuses on the serious impact of the 1989 collapse of the ICA on the domestic coffee sectors of Colombia and Cote d'Ivoire. In particular, the dissertation examines the role of the Colombian and Ivoirian coffee parastatals, the Federacion Nacional de Cafeteros de Colombia and the Caisse de Stabilisation et Soutien des Prix des Produits Agricoles, during the crisis and their transformation by it. The theoretical framework employed in this study is borrowed from the literature on state-society relations. The methodology includes: in-depth analysis of the historical roles of the parastatal agencies in coffee production, state-society relations and economic development in Colombia and Côte d'Ivoire; interviews with parastatal administrators, producers and other knowledgeable informants in both countries; and a comprehensive review of newspaper articles and official statements of coffee policy published in Colombia and Côte d'Ivoire prior to, during, and after the crisis. The Colombian and Ivoirian coffee sectors and their producers faced serious economic and social problems following the drop in coffee prices. The coffee parastatals in Colombia and Côte d'Ivoire first lost some of their responsibilities following the world coffee crisis. The Caisse was in the end eliminated while FEDECAFE struggled to remain in existence. Along the way, both entities faced protests from disgruntled coffee producers, who organized politically for the first time in their nations' histories. I argue that the outcome for the parastatals depended in part on the conditions of their formation, particularly the level of societal involvement in their creation. I also posit that the country's dependence on foreign aid played a key role in the fate of the parastatals. This dissertation concludes that developments in the Colombian and Ivoirian coffee sectors have significantly contributed to the creation of the difficult political and economic conditions of both countries today.

Economic Inequality and the Conditions of Freedom- Views from the American Founding

Professor Clement Fatovic, Director of Graduate Studies for Politic Sciences, lectures on the subject of the American Founding. Lecture held at the Green Library, Modesto Maidique Campus, Florida International University, on April 10, 2013.

Characterization of design and economic sensitivity of vapor phase carbon adsorption systems to environmental uncertainties

Vapor phase carbon adsorption systems are used to remove aromatics, aliphatics, and halogenated hydrocarbons. The adsorption capacity of granular activated carbon is reduced when environmental parameters (temperature, pressure, and humidity) interfere with homogeneous surface diffusion and pore distribution dynamics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of parametric uncertainties in adsorption efficiency. ^ Modified versions of the Langmuir isotherm in conjunction with thermodynamic equations described gaseous adsorption of single component influent onto microporous media. Experimental test results derived from Wang et al. (1999) simulated adsorption kinetics while the Myer and monsoon Langmuir constant accounted for isothermal gas compression and energetic heterogeneity under thermodynamic equilibrium conditions. Responsiveness of adsorption capacity to environmental uncertainties was analyzed by statistical sensitivity and modeled by breakthrough curves. Results indicated that extensive fluctuations in adsorption capacity significantly reduced carbon consumption while isothermal variations had a pronounced effect on saturation capacity. ^

A study of stock market fluctuations and their relation to business conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

The effect of domestic credit in the economic *development process

A commonly held view is that creation of excessive domestic credit may lead to inflation problems, however, many economists uphold the possibility that, generous domestic credit under appropriate conditions will result in increases of output. This hypothesis is examined for Japan and Colombia for the period 1950-1993.^ Domestic credit theories are reviewed since the times of Thornton and Smith, until the recent times of Lewis, McKinnon, Stiglitz and of Japanese economists like K. Emi, Tachi R. and others. It is found that in Japan of the Post-War period, efficient financial markets and the decisive role of the government in orienting investment decisions seem to have influenced positively the effectiveness of domestic credit as an output-stimulating variable. On the contrary, in Colombia the absence of the above features seems to explain why domestic credit is not very effective as an output-stimulating variable.^ Multiple regression analyses show that domestic credit is a strong explanatory variable for output increases in Japan and a weak one for Colombia's case in the studied period. For Japan the correlation depicts a positive relationship between the two variables with a decreasing rate very similar to a typical production function. Moreover, the positive decreasing rate is confirmed if net domestic credit is used in the correlations. For Colombia a positive relationship is also found when accumulated domestic credit is used, but, if net domestic credit is the source of correlations, the positive decreasing rate is not obtained.^ Granger causality tests determined causality from domestic credit to output for Japan and no-causality for Colombia at the 1% significance level; the differences are explained by: (1) The low development level of the financial system in Colombia. (2) The nonexistence of consistent domestic credit policy to foster economic development. (3) The lack of an authoritative orientation in the allocation of financial resources and the nonexistence of long range industrialization programs in Colombia that could channel productively credit resources. For the system of equations relating domestic credit and exports, the Granger causality tests determined no-causality between domestic credit and exports for both Japan and Colombia also at the 1% significance level. ^

Distribution of light in the human retina under natural viewing conditions

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness inAmerica. The fact that AMD wreaks most of the damage in the center of the retina raises the question of whether light, integrated over long periods, is more concentrated in the macula. A method, based on eye-tracking, was developed to measure the distribution of light in the retina under natural viewing conditions. The hypothesis was that integrated over time, retinal illumination peaked in the macula. Additionally a possible relationship between age and retinal illumination was investigated. The eye tracker superimposed the subject's gaze position on a video recorded by a scene camera. Five informed subjects were employed in feasibility tests, and 58 naïve subjects participated in 5 phases. In phase 1 the subjects viewed a gray-scale image. In phase 2, they observed a sequence of photographic images. In phase 3 they viewed a video. In phase 4, they worked on a computer; in phase 5, the subjects walked around freely. The informed subjects were instructed to gaze at bright objects in the field of view and then at dark objects. Naïve subjects were allowed to gaze freely for all phases. Using the subject's gaze coordinates, and the video provided by the scene camera, the cumulative light distribution on the retina was calculated for ∼15° around the fovea. As expected for control subjects, cumulative retinal light distributions peaked and dipped in the fovea when they gazed at bright or dark objects respectively. The light distribution maps obtained from the naïve subjects presented a tendency to peak in the macula for phases 1, 2, and 3, a consistent tendency in phase 4 and a variable tendency in phase 5. The feasibility of using an eye-tracker system to measure the distribution of light in the retina was demonstrated, thus helping to understand the role played by light exposure in the etiology of AMD. Results showed that a tendency for light to peak in the macula is a characteristic of some individuals and of certain tasks. In these situations, risk of AMD could be increased. No significant difference was observed based on age.

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.