Essays on city size distribution and real estate bubbles

This is a dissertation about urban systems; within this broad subject I tackle three issues, one that focuses on an observed inter-city relationship and two that focus on an intra-city phenomenon. In Chapter II I adapt a model of random emergence of economic opportunities from the firm growth literature to the urban dynamics situation and present several predictions for urban system dynamics. One of these predictions is that the older the city the larger and more diversified it is going to be on average, which I proceed to verify empirically using two distinct datasets. In Chapter III I analyze the Residential Real Estate Bubble that took place in Miami-Dade County from 1999 to 2006. I adopt a Spatial-Economic model developed for the Paris Bubble episode of 1984–1993 and formulate an innovative test of the results in terms of speculative intensity on the basis of proxies of investor activity available in my dataset. My results support the idea that the best or more expensive areas are also where the greatest speculative activity takes place and where the rapid increase in prices begins. The most significant departure from previous studies that emerges in my results is the absence of a wider gap between high priced areas and low priced areas in the peak year. I develop a measure of dispersion in value among areas and contrast the Miami-Dade and Paris episodes. In Chapter IV I analyze the impact on tax equity of a Florida tax-limiting legislation known as Save Our Homes. I first compare homesteaded and non-homesteaded properties, and second, look within the subset of homesteaded properties. I find that non-homesteaded properties increase their share of taxes paid relative to homesteaded properties during an up market, but that this is reversed during a down market. For the subset of homesteaded properties I find that the impact on tax equity of SOH will depend on differential growth rates among higher and lower valued homes, but during times of rapid home price appreciation, in a scenario of no differential growth rates in property values, SOH increases progressivity relative to the prior system.

Hydrologic measurements and implications for tree island formation within Everglades National Park

Tree islands in the Shark River Slough of the Everglades National Park (ENP), in the southern state of Florida in the United States, are part of a wetland system of densely vegetated ridges interspersed within relatively open sloughs. Human alteration of this system has had dramatic negative effects on the landscape of the region and restoration efforts will require adjusting the hydrology of the region to assure the preservation of these important ecologic features. The primary objectives of this study were to document the hydrology in the vicinity of tree islands in ENP by measuring velocities in time and space and by characterizing suspended sediments. The results of such measurements were interpreted with respect to factors that may limit tree island growth. The measurements were conducted in the vicinity of three tree islands known as Black Hammock (BH), Gumbo Limbo (GL), and an unnamed island that was named for this study as Satin Leaf (SL). Acoustical Doppler Velocity (ADV) meters were used for measuring the low velocities of the Everglades water flow. Properties of suspended sediments were characterized through measurements of particle size distribution, turbidity, concentration and particle density. Mean velocities observed at each of the tree islands varied from 0.9 to 1.4 cm/s. Slightly higher mean velocities were observed during the wet season (1.2–1.6 cm/s) versus the dry season (0.8–1.3 cm/s). Maximum velocities of more than 4 cm/s were measured in areas of Cladium jamaicense die-off and at the hardwood hammock (head) of the islands. At the island’s head, water is channelized around obstructions such as tree trunks in relatively rapid flow, which may limit the lateral extent of tree island growth. Channelization is facilitated by shade from the tree canopy, which limits the growth of underwater vegetation thereby minimizing the resistance to flow and limiting sediment deposition. Suspended sediment concentrations were low (0.5–1.5 mg/L) at all study sites and were primarily of organic origin. The mean particle size of the suspended sediments was 3 μm with a distribution that was exponential. Critical velocities needed to cause re-suspension of these particles were estimated to be above the actual velocities observed. Sediment transport within the water column appears to be at a near steady state during the conditions evaluated with low rates of sediment loss balanced by presumably the release of equivalent quantities of particles of organic origin. Existing hydrologic conditions do not appear to transport sufficient suspended sediments to result in the formation of tree islands. Of interest would be to collect hydrologic and sediment transport data during extreme hydrologic events to determine if enough sediment is transported under these conditions to promote sufficient sediment accumulations.