Development of safety performance functions for empirical Bayes estimation of crash reduction factors

Crash reduction factors (CRFs) are used to estimate the potential number of traffic crashes expected to be prevented from investment in safety improvement projects. The method used to develop CRFs in Florida has been based on the commonly used before-and-after approach. This approach suffers from a widely recognized problem known as regression-to-the-mean (RTM). The Empirical Bayes (EB) method has been introduced as a means to addressing the RTM problem. This method requires the information from both the treatment and reference sites in order to predict the expected number of crashes had the safety improvement projects at the treatment sites not been implemented. The information from the reference sites is estimated from a safety performance function (SPF), which is a mathematical relationship that links crashes to traffic exposure. The objective of this dissertation was to develop the SPFs for different functional classes of the Florida State Highway System. Crash data from years 2001 through 2003 along with traffic and geometric data were used in the SPF model development. SPFs for both rural and urban roadway categories were developed. The modeling data used were based on one-mile segments that contain homogeneous traffic and geometric conditions within each segment. Segments involving intersections were excluded. The scatter plots of data show that the relationships between crashes and traffic exposure are nonlinear, that crashes increase with traffic exposure in an increasing rate. Four regression models, namely, Poisson (PRM), Negative Binomial (NBRM), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB), were fitted to the one-mile segment records for individual roadway categories. The best model was selected for each category based on a combination of the Likelihood Ratio test, the Vuong statistical test, and the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The NBRM model was found to be appropriate for only one category and the ZINB model was found to be more appropriate for six other categories. The overall results show that the Negative Binomial distribution model generally provides a better fit for the data than the Poisson distribution model. In addition, the ZINB model was found to give the best fit when the count data exhibit excess zeros and over-dispersion for most of the roadway categories. While model validation shows that most data points fall within the 95% prediction intervals of the models developed, the Pearson goodness-of-fit measure does not show statistical significance. This is expected as traffic volume is only one of the many factors contributing to the overall crash experience, and that the SPFs are to be applied in conjunction with Accident Modification Factors (AMFs) to further account for the safety impacts of major geometric features before arriving at the final crash prediction. However, with improved traffic and crash data quality, the crash prediction power of SPF models may be further improved.

Improved Criteria for Estimating Calibration Factors for Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Applications

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) estimates roadway safety performance based on predictive models that were calibrated using national data. Calibration factors are then used to adjust these predictive models to local conditions for local applications. The HSM recommends that local calibration factors be estimated using 30 to 50 randomly selected sites that experienced at least a total of 100 crashes per year. It also recommends that the factors be updated every two to three years, preferably on an annual basis. However, these recommendations are primarily based on expert opinions rather than data-driven research findings. Furthermore, most agencies do not have data for many of the input variables recommended in the HSM. This dissertation is aimed at determining the best way to meet three major data needs affecting the estimation of calibration factors: (1) the required minimum sample sizes for different roadway facilities, (2) the required frequency for calibration factor updates, and (3) the influential variables affecting calibration factors. In this dissertation, statewide segment and intersection data were first collected for most of the HSM recommended calibration variables using a Google Maps application. In addition, eight years (2005-2012) of traffic and crash data were retrieved from existing databases from the Florida Department of Transportation. With these data, the effect of sample size criterion on calibration factor estimates was first studied using a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the minimum sample sizes not only vary across different roadway facilities, but they are also significantly higher than those recommended in the HSM. In addition, results from paired sample t-tests showed that calibration factors in Florida need to be updated annually. To identify influential variables affecting the calibration factors for roadway segments, the variables were prioritized by combining the results from three different methods: negative binomial regression, random forests, and boosted regression trees. Only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data. Traffic volume was consistently found to be the most influential. In addition, roadside object density, major and minor commercial driveway densities, and minor residential driveway density were also identified as influential variables.

Salient factors in child molestation: Moral development, social competence, and type of offender

The current study was designed to build on and extend the existing knowledge base of factors that cause, maintain, and influence child molestation. Theorized links among the type of offender and the offender's levels of moral development and social competence in the perpetration of child molestation were investigated. The conceptual framework for the study is based on the cognitive developmental stages of moral development as proposed by Kohlberg, the unified theory, or Four-Preconditions Model, of child molestation as proposed by Finkelhor, and the Information-Processing Model of Social Skills as proposed by McFall. The study sample consisted of 127 adult male child molesters participating in outpatient group therapy. All subjects completed a Self-Report Questionnaire which included questions designed to obtain relevant demographic data, questions similar to those used by the researchers for the Massachusetts Treatment Center: Child Molester Typology 3's social competency dimension, the Defining Issues Test (DIT) short form, the Social Avoidance and Distress Scale (SADS), the Rathus Assertiveness Schedule (RAS), and the Questionnaire Measure of Empathic Tendency (Empathy Scale). Data were analyzed utilizing confirmatory factor analysis, t-tests, and chi-square statistics. Partial support was found for the hypothesis that moral development is a separate but correlated construct from social competence. As predicted, although the actual mean score differences were small, a statistically significant difference was found in the current study between the mean DITP scores of the subject sample and that of the general male population, suggesting that child molesters, as a group, function at a lower level of moral development than does the general male population, and the situational offenders in the study sample demonstrated a statistically significantly higher level of moral development than the preferential offenders. The data did not support the hypothesis that situational offenders will demonstrate lower levels of social competence than preferential offenders. Relatively little significance is placed on this finding, however, because the measure for the social competency variable was likely subject to considerable measurement error in that the items used as indicators were not clearly defined. The last hypothesis, which involved the potential differences in social anxiety, assertion skills, and empathy between the situational and preferential offender types, was not supported by the data. ^

Factors associated with prompt difficulty in automated essay scoring

This study explores factors related to the prompt difficulty in Automated Essay Scoring. The sample was composed of 6,924 students. For each student, there were 1-4 essays, across 20 different writing prompts, for a total of 20,243 essays. E-rater® v.2 essay scoring engine developed by the Educational Testing Service was used to score the essays. The scoring engine employs a statistical model that incorporates 10 predictors associated with writing characteristics of which 8 were used. The Rasch partial credit analysis was applied to the scores to determine the difficulty levels of prompts. In addition, the scores were used as outcomes in the series of hierarchical linear models (HLM) in which students and prompts constituted the cross-classification levels. This methodology was used to explore the partitioning of the essay score variance.^ The results indicated significant differences in prompt difficulty levels due to genre. Descriptive prompts, as a group, were found to be more difficult than the persuasive prompts. In addition, the essay score variance was partitioned between students and prompts. The amount of the essay score variance that lies between prompts was found to be relatively small (4 to 7 percent). When the essay-level, student-level-and prompt-level predictors were included in the model, it was able to explain almost all variance that lies between prompts. Since in most high-stakes writing assessments only 1-2 prompts per students are used, the essay score variance that lies between prompts represents an undesirable or "noise" variation. Identifying factors associated with this "noise" variance may prove to be important for prompt writing and for constructing Automated Essay Scoring mechanisms for weighting prompt difficulty when assigning essay score.^

Achieving zero accidents—A strategic framework for continuous safety improvement in the construction industry

In the U.S., construction accidents remain a significant economic and social problem. Despite recent improvement, the Construction industry, generally, has lagged behind other industries in implementing safety as a total management process for achieving zero accidents and developing a high-performance safety culture. One aspect of this total approach to safety that has frustrated the construction industry the most has been “measurement”, which involves identifying and quantifying the factors that critically influence safe work behaviors. The basic problem attributed is the difficulty in assessing what to measure and how to measure it—particularly the intangible aspects of safety. Without measurement, the notion of continuous improvement is hard to follow. This research was undertaken to develop a strategic framework for the measurement and continuous improvement of total safety in order to achieve and sustain the goal of zero accidents, while improving the quality, productivity and the competitiveness of the construction industry as it moves forward. The research based itself on an integral model of total safety that allowed decomposition of safety into interior and exterior characteristics using a multiattribute analysis technique. Statistical relationships between total safety dimensions and safety performance (measured by safe work behavior) were revealed through a series of latent variables (factors) that describe the total safety environment of a construction organization. A structural equation model (SEM) was estimated for the latent variables to quantify relationships among them and between these total safety determinants and safety performance of a construction organization. The developed SEM constituted a strategic framework for identifying, measuring, and continuously improving safety as a total concern for achieving and sustaining the goal of zero accidents.

Development of safety performance functions for SafetyAnalyst applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency's safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

Factors surgical team members perceive influence choices of wearing or not wearing personal protective equipment during operative /invasive procedures

Exposure to certain bloodborne pathogens can prematurely end a person’s life. Healthcare workers (HCWs), especially those who are members of surgical teams, are at increased risk of exposure to these pathogens. The proper use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during operative/invasive procedures reduces that risk. Despite this, some HCWs fail to consistently use PPE as required by federal regulation, accrediting agencies, hospital policy, and professional association standards. The purpose of this mixed methods survey study was to (a) examine factors surgical team members perceive influence choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures and (b) determine what would influence consistent use of PPE by surgical team members. Using an ex post facto, non-experimental design, the memberships of five professional associations whose members comprise surgical teams were invited to complete a mixed methods survey study. The primary research question for the study was: What differences (perceptual and demographic) exist between surgical team members that influence their choices of wearing or not wearing PPE during operative/invasive procedures? Four principal differences were found between surgical team members. Functional (i.e., profession or role based) differences exist between the groups. Age and experience (i.e., time in profession) differences exist among members of the groups. Finally, being a nurse anesthetist influences the use of risk assessment to determine the level of PPE to use. Four common themes emerged across all groups informing the two study purposes. Those themes were: availability, education, leadership, and performance. Subsidiary research questions examined the influence of previous accidental exposure to blood or body fluids, federal regulations, hospital policy and procedure, leaders’ attitudes, and patients’ needs on the use of PPE. Each of these was found to strongly influence surgical team members and their use of PPE during operative/invasive procedures. Implications based on the findings affect organizational policy, purchasing and distribution decisions, curriculum design and instruction, leader behavior, and finally partnership with PPE manufacturers. Surgical team members must balance their innate need to care for patients with their need to protect themselves. Results of this study will help team members, leaders, and educators achieve this balance.

An examination of psychological meaningfulness, safety, and availability as the underlying mechanisms linking job features and personal characteristics to work engagement

The present study tested a nomological net of work engagement that was derived from its extant research. Two of the main work engagement models that have been presented and empirically tested in the literature, the JD-R model and Kahn's model, were integrated to test the effects that job features and personal characteristics can have on work engagement through the psychological conditions of meaningfulness, safety, and availability. In this study, safety refers to psychological perceptions of safety and not workplace safety behaviors. The job features that were tested in this model included person-job fit, autonomy, co-worker relations, supervisor support, procedural justice, and interactional justice, while the personal characteristics consisted of self-consciousness, self-efficacy, extraversion, and neuroticism. Thirty-four hypotheses and a conceptual model were tested in order to establish the viability of this nomological net of work engagement in which it was expected that meaningfulness would mediate the relationships between job features and work engagement, safety would mediate the relationships that job features and personal characteristics have with work engagement, and availability (physical, emotional, and cognitive resources) would mediate the relationships that personal characteristics have with work engagement. Furthermore, analyses were run in order to determine the factor structure of work engagement, assess whether or not it exhibits differential validity from organizational commitment and job satisfaction, and confirm that it is positively related to the outcome variable of organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). The final sample consisted of 500 workers from an online labor market who responded to a questionnaire composed of measures of all constructs included in this study. Findings show that work engagement is best represented as a three-factor construct, composed of vigor, dedication and absorption. Furthermore, support was found for the distinction of work engagement from the related constructs of organizational commitment and job satisfaction. With regard to the proposed model, meaningfulness proved to be the strongest predictor of work engagement. Results show that it partially mediates the relationships that all job features have with work engagement. Safety proved to be a partial mediator of the relationships that autonomy, co-worker relations, supervisor support, procedural justice, interactional justice, and self-efficacy have with work engagement, and fully mediate the relationship between neuroticism and work engagement. Findings also show that availability partially mediates the positive relationships that extraversion and self-efficacy have with work engagement, and fully mediates the negative relationship that neuroticism has with work engagement. Finally, a positive relationship was found between work engagement and OCB. Research and organizational implications are discussed.

Extended Coverage for Public Safety and Critical Communications Using Multi-hop and D2D Communications

In this thesis, we proposed the use of device-to-device (D2D) communications for extending the coverage area of active base stations, for public safety communications with partial coverage. A 3GPP standard compliant D2D system level simulator is developed for HetNets and public safety scenarios and used to evaluate the performance of D2D discovery and communications underlying cellular networks. For D2D discovery, the benefits of time-domain inter-cell interference coordi- nation (ICIC) approaches by using almost blank subframes were evaluated. Also, the use of multi-hop is proposed to improve, even further, the performance of the D2D discovery process. Finally, the possibility of using multi-hop D2D communications for extending the coverage area of active base stations was evaluated. Improvements in energy and spectral efficiency, when compared with the case of direct UE-eNB communi- cations, were demonstrated. Moreover, UE power control techniques were applied to reduce the effects of interference from neighboring D2D links.

Use of child safety seats among Mexican parents in a small south Dade community

The purpose of this study was to determine the use and misuse of child safety seats among Mexican parents. Data were collected via personal interview and by use of the SAFE KIDS BUCKLE UP Child Safety Seat Checklist Form. This study used a descriptive comparative design. The convenience sample consisted of 63 Mexican mothers with at least one child under the age of four (index child). The findings showed that Mexican parents tend to misuse or not use child safety seats. Most parents were not aware of the misuse, and receiving prior information on the use of child safety seats had no bearing on its correct use. Factors influencing nonuse include lack of finances, driving short distances, leaving child safety seat at home, and being unaware of the Florida child restraint law. Findings of this study have implications for how nurses need to educate mothers on car safety and help reduce childhood injuries.

Development of Safety Performance Functions for SafetyAnalyst Applications in Florida

In 2010, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) released a safety analysis software system known as SafetyAnalyst. SafetyAnalyst implements the empirical Bayes (EB) method, which requires the use of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). The system is equipped with a set of national default SPFs, and the software calibrates the default SPFs to represent the agency’s safety performance. However, it is recommended that agencies generate agency-specific SPFs whenever possible. Many investigators support the view that the agency-specific SPFs represent the agency data better than the national default SPFs calibrated to agency data. Furthermore, it is believed that the crash trends in Florida are different from the states whose data were used to develop the national default SPFs. In this dissertation, Florida-specific SPFs were developed using the 2008 Roadway Characteristics Inventory (RCI) data and crash and traffic data from 2007-2010 for both total and fatal and injury (FI) crashes. The data were randomly divided into two sets, one for calibration (70% of the data) and another for validation (30% of the data). The negative binomial (NB) model was used to develop the Florida-specific SPFs for each of the subtypes of roadway segments, intersections and ramps, using the calibration data. Statistical goodness-of-fit tests were performed on the calibrated models, which were then validated using the validation data set. The results were compared in order to assess the transferability of the Florida-specific SPF models. The default SafetyAnalyst SPFs were calibrated to Florida data by adjusting the national default SPFs with local calibration factors. The performance of the Florida-specific SPFs and SafetyAnalyst default SPFs calibrated to Florida data were then compared using a number of methods, including visual plots and statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The plots of SPFs against the observed crash data were used to compare the prediction performance of the two models. Three goodness-of-fit tests, represented by the mean absolute deviance (MAD), the mean square prediction error (MSPE), and Freeman-Tukey R2 (R2FT), were also used for comparison in order to identify the better-fitting model. The results showed that Florida-specific SPFs yielded better prediction performance than the national default SPFs calibrated to Florida data. The performance of Florida-specific SPFs was further compared with that of the full SPFs, which include both traffic and geometric variables, in two major applications of SPFs, i.e., crash prediction and identification of high crash locations. The results showed that both SPF models yielded very similar performance in both applications. These empirical results support the use of the flow-only SPF models adopted in SafetyAnalyst, which require much less effort to develop compared to full SPFs.

An Examination of Psychological Meaningfulness, Safety, and Availability as the Underlying Mechanisms linking Job Features and Personal Characteristics to Work Engagement

The present study tested a nomological net of work engagement that was derived from its extant research. Two of the main work engagement models that have been presented and empirically tested in the literature, the JD-R model and Kahn’s model, were integrated to test the effects that job features and personal characteristics can have on work engagement through the psychological conditions of meaningfulness, safety, and availability. In this study, safety refers to psychological perceptions of safety and not workplace safety behaviors. The job features that were tested in this model included person-job fit, autonomy, co-worker relations, supervisor support, procedural justice, and interactional justice, while the personal characteristics consisted of self-consciousness, self-efficacy, extraversion, and neuroticism. Thirty-four hypotheses and a conceptual model were tested in order to establish the viability of this nomological net of work engagement in which it was expected that meaningfulness would mediate the relationships between job features and work engagement, safety would mediate the relationships that job features and personal characteristics have with work engagement, and availability (physical, emotional, and cognitive resources) would mediate the relationships that personal characteristics have with work engagement. Furthermore, analyses were run in order to determine the factor structure of work engagement, assess whether or not it exhibits differential validity from organizational commitment and job satisfaction, and confirm that it is positively related to the outcome variable of organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). The final sample consisted of 500 workers from an online labor market who responded to a questionnaire composed of measures of all constructs included in this study. Findings show that work engagement is best represented as a three-factor construct, composed of vigor, dedication and absorption. Furthermore, support was found for the distinction of work engagement from the related constructs of organizational commitment and job satisfaction. With regard to the proposed model, meaningfulness proved to be the strongest predictor of work engagement. Results show that it partially mediates the relationships that all job features have with work engagement. Safety proved to be a partial mediator of the relationships that autonomy, co-worker relations, supervisor support, procedural justice, interactional justice, and self-efficacy have with work engagement, and fully mediate the relationship between neuroticism and work engagement. Findings also show that availability partially mediates the positive relationships that extraversion and self-efficacy have with work engagement, and fully mediates the negative relationship that neuroticism has with work engagement. Finally, a positive relationship was found between work engagement and OCB. Research and organizational implications are discussed.