An autoregressive conditional filtering process to remove intraday seasonal volatility and its application to testing the noisy rational expectations model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Aerodynamic load characteristics evaluation and tri-axial performance testing on fiber reinforced polymer connections and metal fasteners to promote hurricane damage mitigation

Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. ^ The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated triaxial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. ^ The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing. ^

The impact of *experience, industry characteristics, and individual differences on audit risk and the extent of testing decisions: An empirical investigation

The first part of the study examined the effect of industry risk changes on perceived audit risk at the financial statement level and whether these changes depended on individual differences such as experience and tolerance for ambiguity. ^ Forty-eight auditors from two offices of one of the “Big 5” CPA firms participated in this study. The ANOVA results supported the effect of industry risk in the assessment of audit risk at the financial statement level. Higher industry risk was associated with higher perceived audit risk. Tolerance for ambiguity was also significant in explaining the changes in the assessment of audit risk. Auditors with a high tolerance for ambiguity perceived lower audit risk than auditors with a low tolerance for ambiguity. Although ANOVA results did not find experience to be significant, a t-test for experience showed it to be marginally significant and inversely related to audit risk. ^ The second part of this study examined whether differences in perceived audit risk at the financial statement level altered the extent, nature or timing of the planned auditing procedures. The results of the MANOVA suggested an overall audit risk effect at the financial statement level. Perceived audit risk was significant in explaining the variation in the number of hours planned for the total cycle and the number of hours p1anned for the tests of balances and details. Perceived audit risk was not significant in determining the analytical review procedures planned, but assessed inherent risk at the cycle level was significant. The higher the inherent risk the more analytical procedures were planned. Perceived audit risk was not significant in explaining the timing of the procedures, but individual differences were significant. The results showed that experienced auditors and those with a high tolerance for ambiguity were less likely to postpone the performance of the interim procedures or the time at which the majority of audit work would be done. ^

Aerodynamic Load Characteristics Evaluation and Tri-Axial Performance Testing on Fiber Reinforced Polymer Connections and Metal Fasteners to Promote Hurricane Damage Mitigation

Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated tri-axial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing.

An Autoregressive Conditional Filtering Process to remove Intraday Seasonal Volatility and its Application to Testing the Noisy Rational Expectations Model

We develop a new autoregressive conditional process to capture both the changes and the persistency of the intraday seasonal (U-shape) pattern of volatility in essay 1. Unlike other procedures, this approach allows for the intraday volatility pattern to change over time without the filtering process injecting a spurious pattern of noise into the filtered series. We show that prior deterministic filtering procedures are special cases of the autoregressive conditional filtering process presented here. Lagrange multiplier tests prove that the stochastic seasonal variance component is statistically significant. Specification tests using the correlogram and cross-spectral analyses prove the reliability of the autoregressive conditional filtering process. In essay 2 we develop a new methodology to decompose return variance in order to examine the informativeness embedded in the return series. The variance is decomposed into the information arrival component and the noise factor component. This decomposition methodology differs from previous studies in that both the informational variance and the noise variance are time-varying. Furthermore, the covariance of the informational component and the noisy component is no longer restricted to be zero. The resultant measure of price informativeness is defined as the informational variance divided by the total variance of the returns. The noisy rational expectations model predicts that uninformed traders react to price changes more than informed traders, since uninformed traders cannot distinguish between price changes caused by information arrivals and price changes caused by noise. This hypothesis is tested in essay 3 using intraday data with the intraday seasonal volatility component removed, as based on the procedure in the first essay. The resultant seasonally adjusted variance series is decomposed into components caused by unexpected information arrivals and by noise in order to examine informativeness.

Stereotype Threat and the Standardized Testing Experiences of African American Children at an Urban Elementary School

Stereotype threat (Steele & Aronson, 1995) refers to the risk of confirming a negative stereotype about one’s group in a particular performance domain. The theory assumes that performance in the stereotyped domain is most negatively affected when individuals are more highly identified with the domain in question. As federal law has increased the importance of standardized testing at the elementary level, it can be reasonably hypothesized that the standardized test performance of African American children will be depressed when they are aware of negative societal stereotypes about the academic competence of African Americans. This sequential mixed-methods study investigated whether the standardized testing experiences of African American children in an urban elementary school are related to their level of stereotype awareness. The quantitative phase utilized data from 198 African American children at an urban elementary school. Both ex-post facto and experimental designs were employed. Experimental conditions were diagnostic and non-diagnostic testing experiences. The qualitative phase utilized data from a series of six focus group interviews conducted with a purposefully selected group of 4 African American children. The interview data were supplemented with data from 30 hours of classroom observations. Quantitative findings indicated that the stereotype threat condition evoked by diagnostic testing depresses the reading test performance of stereotype-aware African American children (F[1, 194] = 2.21, p < .01). This was particularly true of students who are most highly domain-identified with reading (F[1, 91] = 19.18, p < .01). Moreover, findings indicated that only stereotype-aware African American children who were highly domain-identified were more likely to experience anxiety in the diagnostic condition (F[1, 91] = 5.97, p < .025). Qualitative findings revealed 4 themes regarding how African American children perceive and experience the factors related to stereotype threat: (1) a narrow perception of education as strictly test preparation, (2) feelings of stress and anxiety related to the state test, (3) concern with what “others” think (racial salience), and (4) stereotypes. A new conceptual model for stereotype threat is presented, and future directions including implications for practice and policy are discussed.

Risk factors of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases among Jamaican adolescents

Purpose. The purpose of the study was to examine Jamaican adolescents in a school setting, for risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Methods. A descriptive epidemiological cross-sectional study of 276 Jamaican adolescents (112 males and 164 females) ages 14-19 years (15.6±1.2), randomly selected from grades 9-12 from ten high schools on the island. Thirteen risk factors were examined. Risk factors were compared with BMI levels and demographics. A sub-study validated finger prick testing of fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, and HbA1c versus venous testing in 59 subjects. Results. Prevalence of overweight was 33.0% (n=91) with mean BMI of 23.74±7.74. Approximately 66.7% of subjects reported ≥ 3 risk factors. The number of T2DM and CVDs risk factors increased for subjects with BMI above 25. One third of the overweight subjects were classified with the metabolic syndrome. High BMI was associated with high waist circumference (r = .767, p < .01), high waist-to-hip ratio (r = .180, p < .01), presence of Acanthosis Nigricans (r = .657, p < .01), high total cholesterol (r = .158, p < .01), family history of T2DM (r = .157, p < .01), and hypertension (r = .422, p < .01). Regression analyses significantly predicted gender and physical activity (p < .001), and total number of risk factors for T2DM and CVDs (p < .001). Paired samples t-tests revealed no significant differences between methods of testing for TC and HbA1c (p < .01) but not for FBG (p > .05). Percentage bias for the methods of blood testing met the reference standards for fasting blood glucose but not for total cholesterol and HbA1c. Bland Altman tests of agreement between the two methods indicated good agreement for all three tests. Conclusion. Jamaican adolescents are at high risk for T2DM and CVDs as seen in other study populations. Effective programs to prevent T2DM and CVDs are needed. Family history of diseases, anthropometric measures, and gender identified more subjects at risk than did the biochemical measures. Comparison between finger prick and venous blood methods suggested that finger prick is an adequate method to screen for risk factors in children and adolescents.

Monounsaturated fatty acid, carbohydrate intake, and diabetes status are associated with arterial pulse pressure

Background Diabetes is a global epidemic. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most prevalent consequences of diabetes. Nutrition is considered a modifiable risk factor for CVD, particularly for individuals with diabetes; albeit, there is little consensus on the role of carbohydrates, proteins and fats for arterial health for persons with or without diabetes. In this study, we examined the association of macronutrients with arterial pulse pressure (APP), a surrogate measure of arterial health by diabetes status and race. Methods Participants were 892 Mexican Americans (MA), 1059 Black, non-Hispanics (BNH) and 2473 White, non-Hispanics (WNH) with and without diabetes of a weighted sample from the National Nutrition and Health Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2008. The cross-sectional analysis was performed with IBM-SPSS version 18 with the complex sample analysis module. The two-year sample weight for the sub-sample with laboratory values was applied to reduce bias and approximate a nationally, representative sample. Arterial stiffness was assessed by arterial pulse pressure (APP). Results APP was higher for MA [B = 0.063 (95% CI 0.015 to 0.111), p = 0.013] and BNH [B = 0.044 (95% CI 0.006 to 0.082), p = 0.018] than WNH, controlling for diabetes, age, gender, body mass index (BMI), fiber intake, energy intake (Kcal) and smoking. A two-way interaction of diabetes by carbohydrate intake (grams) was inversely associated with APP [B = -1.18 (95% CI -0.178 to -0.058), p = 0.001], controlling for race, age, gender, BMI, Kcal and smoking. BNH with diabetes who consumed more mono-unsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) than WNH with diabetes had lower APP [B = -0.112 (95%CI-0.179 to -0.045), p = 0.003] adjusting for saturated fatty acids, Kcal, age, gender, BMI and smoking. Conclusion Higher MUFA and carbohydrate intake for persons with diabetes reflecting lower APP may be due to replacement of saturated fats with CHO and MUFA. The associations of APP with diabetes, race and dietary intake need to be confirmed with intervention and prospective studies. Confirmation of these results would suggest that dietary interventions for minorities with diabetes may improve arterial health.

Personnel selection, safety performance, and job performance: Are safe workers better workers?

The present dissertation consists of two studies that combine personnel selection, safety performance, and job performance literatures to answer an important question: are safe workers better workers? Study 1 tested a predictive model of safety performance to examine personality characteristics (conscientiousness and agreeableness), and two novel behavioral constructs (safety orientation and safety judgment) as predictors of safety performance in a sample of forklift loaders/operators (N = 307). Analyses centered on investigating safety orientation as a proximal predictor and determinant of safety performance. Study 2 replicated Study 1 and explored the relationship between safety performance and job performance by testing an integrative model in a sample of machine operators and construction crewmembers (N = 323). Both Study 1 and Study 2 found conscientiousness, agreeableness, and safety orientation to be good predictors of safety performance. While both personality and safety orientation were positively related to safety performance, safety orientation proved to be a more proximal determinant of safety performance. Across studies, results surrounding safety judgment as a predictor of safety performance were inconclusive, suggesting possible issues with measurement of the construct. Study 2 found a strong relationship between safety performance and job performance. In addition, safety performance served as a mediator between predictors (conscientiousness, agreeableness and safety orientation) and job performance. Together these findings suggest that safe workers are indeed better workers, challenging previous viewpoints to the contrary. Further, results implicate the viability of personnel selection as means of promoting safety in organizations.^

Risk factors of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases among Jamaican adolescents

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to examine Jamaican adolescents in a school setting, for risk factors of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Methods: A descriptive epidemiological cross-sectional study of 276 Jamaican adolescents (112 males and 164 females) ages 14-19 years (15.6±1.2), randomly selected from grades 9-12 from ten high schools on the island. Thirteen risk factors were examined. Risk factors were compared with BMI levels and demographics. A sub-study validated finger prick testing of fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, and HbAlc versus venous testing in 59 subjects. Results: Prevalence of overweight was 33.0% (n=91) with mean BMI of 23.74±7.74. Approximately 66.7% of subjects reported > 3 risk factors. The number of T2DM and CVDs risk factors increased for subjects with BMI above 25. One third of the overweight subjects were classified with the metabolic syndrome. High BMI was associated with high waist circumference (r =.767, p (r = .180, p.05). Percentage bias for the methods of blood testing met the reference standards for fasting blood glucose but not for total cholesterol and HbAlc. Bland Altman tests of agreement between the two methods indicated good agreement for all three tests. Conclusion: Jamaican adolescents are at high risk for T2DM and CVDs as seen in other study populations. Effective programs to prevent T2DM and CVDs are needed. Family history of diseases, anthropometric measures, and gender identified more subjects at risk than did the biochemical measures. Comparison between finger prick and venous blood methods suggested that finger prick is an adequate method to screen for risk factors in children and adolescents.

Design and analysis of micro-channel heat-exchanger embedded in Low Temperature Co-fire Ceramic (LTCC)

Increased device density, switching speeds of integrated circuits and decrease in package size is placing new demands for high power thermal-management. The convectional method of forced air cooling with passive heat sink can handle heat fluxes up-to 3-5W/cm2; however current microprocessors are operating at levels of 100W/cm2, This demands the usage of novel thermal-management systems. In this work, water-cooling systems with active heat sink are embedded in the substrate. The research involved fabricating LTCC substrates of various configurations - an open-duct substrate, the second with thermal vias and the third with thermal vias and free-standing metal columns and metal foil. Thermal testing was performed experimentally and these results are compared with CFD results. An overall thermal resistance for the base substrate is demonstrated to be 3.4oC/W-cm2. Addition of thermal vias reduces the effective resistance of the system by 7times and further addition of free standing columns reduced it by 20times.

Durability assessment of polymer trileaflet heart valves

The durability of a polymer trileaflet valve is dependent on leaflet stress concentrations, so valve designs that reduce stress can, hypothetically, increase durability. Design aspects that are believed to contribute to reduced leaflet stress include stent flexibility, parabolic coaptation curvature, and leaflet anisotropy. With this in mind, the purpose of this investigation was to elucidate what specific combinations of these parameters promote optimal acute and long-term valve function. A combination of four stent designs, seven leaflet reinforcement materials, and three coaptation geometries were evaluated through a combination of experimentation and modeling. Static tensile and Poisson’s ratio tests and dynamic tensile fatigue testing were used to evaluate the individual leaflet components; and hydrodynamic testing and accelerated valve fatigue was used to assess complete valve prototypes. The two most successful designs included a 0.40 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a fatigue life of 10.35 years, and a 0.20 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a 28.9 mmHg decrease in pressure drop over the former. A finite element model was incorporated to verify the impact of the above-mentioned parameters on leaflet stress concentrations. Leaflet anisotropy had a large impact on stress concentrations, and matching the circumferential modulus to that of the natural valve showed the greatest benefit. Varying the radial modulus had minimal impact. Varying coaptation geometry had no impact, but stent flexibility did have a marked effect on the stress at the top of the commissure, where a completely rigid stent resulted in a higher peak stress than a flexible stent (E = 385 MPa). In conclusion, stent flexibility and leaflet anisotropy do effect stress concentrations in the SIBS trileaflet valve, but coaptation geometry does not. Regions of high stress concentrations were linked to failure locations in vitro, so a fatigue prediction model was developed from the S/N curves generated during dynamic tensile testing of the 0.20 mm knit-reinforced leaflets. Failure was predicted at approximately 400 million cycles (10 years) at the top of the commissure. In vitro fatigue of this valve showed failure initiation after approximately 167 million cycles (4.18 years), but it was related to a design defect that is subsequently being changed.

Neural network based off-line handwritten text recognition system

This dissertation introduces a new system for handwritten text recognition based on an improved neural network design. Most of the existing neural networks treat mean square error function as the standard error function. The system as proposed in this dissertation utilizes the mean quartic error function, where the third and fourth derivatives are non-zero. Consequently, many improvements on the training methods were achieved. The training results are carefully assessed before and after the update. To evaluate the performance of a training system, there are three essential factors to be considered, and they are from high to low importance priority: (1) error rate on testing set, (2) processing time needed to recognize a segmented character and (3) the total training time and subsequently the total testing time. It is observed that bounded training methods accelerate the training process, while semi-third order training methods, next-minimal training methods, and preprocessing operations reduce the error rate on the testing set. Empirical observations suggest that two combinations of training methods are needed for different case character recognition. Since character segmentation is required for word and sentence recognition, this dissertation provides also an effective rule-based segmentation method, which is different from the conventional adaptive segmentation methods. Dictionary-based correction is utilized to correct mistakes resulting from the recognition and segmentation phases. The integration of the segmentation methods with the handwritten character recognition algorithm yielded an accuracy of 92% for lower case characters and 97% for upper case characters. In the testing phase, the database consists of 20,000 handwritten characters, with 10,000 for each case. The testing phase on the recognition 10,000 handwritten characters required 8.5 seconds in processing time.

The Effect of Mobile Technology as an Active Student Response System on the Acquisition of U.S. History Content of Secondary Students with Specific Learning Disabilities

Students with specific learning disabilities (SLD) typically learn less history content than their peers without disabilities and show fewer learning gains. Even when they are provided with the same instructional strategies, many students with SLD struggle to grasp complex historical concepts and content area vocabulary. Many strategies involving technology have been used in the past to enhance learning for students with SLD in history classrooms. However, very few studies have explored the effectiveness of emerging mobile technology in K-12 history classrooms. This study investigated the effects of mobile devices (iPads) as an active student response (ASR) system on the acquisition of U.S. history content of middle school students with SLD. An alternating treatments single subject design was used to compare the effects of two interventions. There were two conditions and a series of pretest probesin this study. The conditions were: (a) direct instruction and studying from handwritten notes using the interactive notebook strategy and (b) direct instruction and studying using the Quizlet App on the iPad. There were three dependent variables in this study: (a) percent correct on tests, (b) rate of correct responses per minute, and (c) rate of errors per minute. A comparative analysis suggested that both interventions (studying from interactive notes and studying using Quizlet on the iPad) had varying degrees of effectiveness in increasing the learning gains of students with SLD. In most cases, both interventions were equally effective. During both interventions, all of the participants increased their percentage correct and increased their rate of correct responses. Most of the participants decreased their rate of errors. The results of this study suggest that teachers of students with SLD should consider a post lesson review in the form of mobile devices as an ASR system or studying from handwritten notes paired with existing evidence-based practices to facilitate students’ knowledge in U.S. history. Future research should focus on the use of other interactive applications on various mobile operating platforms, on other social studies subjects, and should explore various testing formats such as oral question-answer and multiple choice.

Durability Assessment of Polymer Trileaflet Heart Valves

The durability of a polymer trileaflet valve is dependent on leaflet stress concentrations, so valve designs that reduce stress can, hypothetically, increase durability. Design aspects that are believed to contribute to reduced leaflet stress include stent flexibility, parabolic coaptation curvature, and leaflet anisotropy. With this in mind, the purpose of this investigation was to elucidate what specific combinations of these parameters promote optimal acute and long-term valve function. A combination of four stent designs, seven leaflet reinforcement materials, and three coaptation geometries were evaluated through a combination of experimentation and modeling. Static tensile and Poisson’s ratio tests and dynamic tensile fatigue testing were used to evaluate the individual leaflet components; and hydrodynamic testing and accelerated valve fatigue was used to assess complete valve prototypes. The two most successful designs included a 0.40 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a fatigue life of 10.35 years, and a 0.20 mm thick knit-reinforced valve with a 28.9 mmHg decrease in pressure drop over the former. A finite element model was incorporated to verify the impact of the above-mentioned parameters on leaflet stress concentrations. Leaflet anisotropy had a large impact on stress concentrations, and matching the circumferential modulus to that of the natural valve showed the greatest benefit. Varying the radial modulus had minimal impact. Varying coaptation geometry had no impact, but stent flexibility did have a marked effect on the stress at the top of the commissure, where a completely rigid stent resulted in a higher peak stress than a flexible stent (E = 385 MPa). In conclusion, stent flexibility and leaflet anisotropy do effect stress concentrations in the SIBS trileaflet valve, but coaptation geometry does not. Regions of high stress concentrations were linked to failure locations in vitro, so a fatigue prediction model was developed from the S/N curves generated during dynamic tensile testing of the 0.20 mm knit-reinforced leaflets. Failure was predicted at approximately 400 million cycles (10 years) at the top of the commissure. In vitro fatigue of this valve showed failure initiation after approximately 167 million cycles (4.18 years), but it was related to a design defect that is subsequently being changed.