Development of prediction models for freeway incident durations using data mining techniques

The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^

Online solid phase extraction liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (SPE-LC-MS/MS) method for the determination of sucralose in reclaimed and drinking waters and its photo degradation in natural waters from South Florida

Background Sucralose has gained popularity as a low calorie artificial sweetener worldwide. Due to its high stability and persistence, sucralose has shown widespread occurrence in environmental waters, at concentrations that could reach up to several μg/L. Previous studies have used time consuming sample preparation methods (offline solid phase extraction/derivatization) or methods with rather high detection limits (direct injection) for sucralose analysis. This study described a faster and sensitive analytical method for the determination of sucralose in environmental samples. Results An online SPE-LC–MS/MS method was developed, being capable to quantify sucralose in 12 minutes using only 10 mL of sample, with method detection limits (MDLs) of 4.5 ng/L, 8.5 ng/L and 45 ng/L for deionized water, drinking and reclaimed waters (1:10 diluted with deionized water), respectively. Sucralose was detected in 82% of the reclaimed water samples at concentrations reaching up to 18 μg/L. The monthly average for a period of one year was 9.1 ± 2.9 μg/L. The calculated mass loads per capita of sucralose discharged through WWTP effluents based on the concentrations detected in wastewaters in the U. S. is 5.0 mg/day/person. As expected, the concentrations observed in drinking water were much lower but still relevant reaching as high as 465 ng/L. In order to evaluate the stability of sucralose, photodegradation experiments were performed in natural waters. Significant photodegradation of sucralose was observed only in freshwater at 254 nm. Minimal degradation (<20%) was observed for all matrices under more natural conditions (350 nm or solar simulator). The only photolysis product of sucralose identified by high resolution mass spectrometry was a de-chlorinated molecule at m/z 362.0535, with molecular formula C12H20Cl2O8. Conclusions Online SPE LC-APCI/MS/MS developed in the study was applied to more than 100 environmental samples. Sucralose was frequently detected (>80%) indicating that the conventional treatment process employed in the sewage treatment plants is not efficient for its removal. Detection of sucralose in drinking waters suggests potential contamination of surface and ground waters sources with anthropogenic wastewater streams. Its high resistance to photodegradation, minimal sorption and high solubility indicate that sucralose could be a good tracer of anthropogenic wastewater intrusion into the environment.

Physics-based modeling of power system components for the evaluation of low-frequency radiated electromagnetic fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system's EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter's components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled

Foundations of quantitative information flow: Channels, cascades, and the information order

Secrecy is fundamental to computer security, but real systems often cannot avoid leaking some secret information. For this reason, the past decade has seen growing interest in quantitative theories of information flow that allow us to quantify the information being leaked. Within these theories, the system is modeled as an information-theoretic channel that specifies the probability of each output, given each input. Given a prior distribution on those inputs, entropy-like measures quantify the amount of information leakage caused by the channel. ^ This thesis presents new results in the theory of min-entropy leakage. First, we study the perspective of secrecy as a resource that is gradually consumed by a system. We explore this intuition through various models of min-entropy consumption. Next, we consider several composition operators that allow smaller systems to be combined into larger systems, and explore the extent to which the leakage of a combined system is constrained by the leakage of its constituents. Most significantly, we prove upper bounds on the leakage of a cascade of two channels, where the output of the first channel is used as input to the second. In addition, we show how to decompose a channel into a cascade of channels. ^ We also establish fundamental new results about the recently-proposed g-leakage family of measures. These results further highlight the significance of channel cascading. We prove that whenever channel A is composition refined by channel B, that is, whenever A is the cascade of B and R for some channel R, the leakage of A never exceeds that of B, regardless of the prior distribution or leakage measure (Shannon leakage, guessing entropy leakage, min-entropy leakage, or g-leakage). Moreover, we show that composition refinement is a partial order if we quotient away channel structure that is redundant with respect to leakage alone. These results are strengthened by the proof that composition refinement is the only way for one channel to never leak more than another with respect to g-leakage. Therefore, composition refinement robustly answers the question of when a channel is always at least as secure as another from a leakage point of view.^

Physics-Based Modeling of Power System Components for the Evaluation of Low-Frequency Radiated Electromagnetic Fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system’s EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter’s components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled