The inclusion of differentially assessed lands in urban growth model calibration: a comparison of two approaches using SLEUTH

This research sought to understand the role that differentially assessed lands (lands in the United States given tax breaks in return for their guarantee to remain in agriculture) play in influencing urban growth. Our method was to calibrate the SLEUTH urban growth model under two different conditions. The first used an excluded layer that ignored such lands, effectively rendering them available for development. The second treated those lands as totally excluded from development. Our hypothesis was that excluding those lands would yield better metrics of fit with past data. Our results validate our hypothesis since two different metrics that evaluate goodness of fit both yielded higher values when differentially assessed lands are treated as excluded. This suggests that, at least in our study area, differential assessment, which protects farm and ranch lands for tenuous periods of time, has indeed allowed farmland to resist urban development. Including differentially assessed lands also yielded very different calibrated coefficients of growth as the model tried to account for the same growth patterns over two very different excluded areas. Excluded layer design can greatly affect model behavior. Since differentially assessed lands are quite common through the United States and are often ignored in urban growth modeling, the findings of this research can assist other urban growth modelers in designing excluded layers that result in more accurate model calibration and thus forecasting.

The moderate voice of John Sherman and the Republican agenda 1855-1898

Republican John Sherman, United States Congressman, Senator, Treasury Secretary, and Secretary of State had a political career of major importance from 1855 to 1898, yet there have been only casual references by historians and only two biographies of him, with the most recent published in 1902. From a strong Whig Party background, he was first elected to the United States House of Representatives in 1854; switching to the Republicans that same year. Then elevated to the Senate in 1861, he served in that body throughout the Civil War and Reconstruction when he was the most important voice of party unity and moderation. In 1877, the new President Rutherford Hayes appointed Sherman Secretary of the Treasury. He returned to the Senate after the Hayes administration where he sat for the following 15 years. In this particularly notable period, he not only led the upper house, but he engineered more bills in Congress which bore his name than any other member of either house. These included the critically important Sherman Silver Purchase Act, the Sherman Anti-Trust Act and Sherman Inter-State Commerce Act. In 1897 he left the Senate finally when William McKinley appointed him Secretary of State. ^ Through this long, distinguished career, Sherman was involved in all the important legislation that brought the country through the Civil War and Reconstruction and into the post-war world of the Gilded Age of rapid industrialization, and urban growth, Politically, he never strayed far from the nationalistic and economic principles of the Whig Party, and brought both these values to bear in the Republican Party that dominated American political life from 1860 to 1900. Similarly, party loyalty and loyalty to the President always characterized his service. He was indeed, an exemplar of political and statesmanship. ^ While research for this dissertation included review of both journal and monographic literature, its basis lies more critically in primary research in unpublished archival material in repositories from Maine to Ohio, in particular the Library of Congress. ^

Forecasting enrollment in differential assessment programs using cellular automata

Urban growth models have been used for decades to forecast urban development in metropolitan areas. Since the 1990s cellular automata, with simple computational rules and an explicitly spatial architecture, have been heavily utilized in this endeavor. One such cellular-automata-based model, SLEUTH, has been successfully applied around the world to better understand and forecast not only urban growth but also other forms of land-use and land-cover change, but like other models must be fed important information about which particular lands in the modeled area are available for development. Some of these lands are in categories for the purpose of excluding urban growth that are difficult to quantify since their function is dictated by policy. One such category includes voluntary differential assessment programs, whereby farmers agree not to develop their lands in exchange for significant tax breaks. Since they are voluntary, today’s excluded lands may be available for development at some point in the future. Mapping the shifting mosaic of parcels that are enrolled in such programs allows this information to be used in modeling and forecasting. In this study, we added information about California’s Williamson Act into SLEUTH’s excluded layer for Tulare County. Assumptions about the voluntary differential assessments were used to create a sophisticated excluded layer that was fed into SLEUTH’s urban growth forecasting routine. The results demonstrate not only a successful execution of this method but also yielded high goodness-of-fit metrics for both the calibration of enrollment termination as well as the urban growth modeling itself.

Evaluating Effects of Everglades Restoration on American Crocodile Populations in South Florida Using a Spatially-Explicit, Stage-Based Population Model

The distribution and abundance of the American crocodile (Crocodylus acutus) in the Florida Everglades is dependent on the timing, amount, and location of freshwater flow. One of the goals of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) is to restore historic freshwater flows to American crocodile habitat throughout the Everglades. To predict the impacts on the crocodile population from planned restoration activities, we created a stage-based spatially explicit crocodile population model that incorporated regional hydrology models and American crocodile research and monitoring data. Growth and survival were influenced by salinity, water depth, and density-dependent interactions. A stage-structured spatial model was used with discrete spatial convolution to direct crocodiles toward attractive sources where conditions were favorable. The model predicted that CERP would have both positive and negative impacts on American crocodile growth, survival, and distribution. Overall, crocodile populations across south Florida were predicted to decrease approximately 3 % with the implementation of CERP compared to future conditions without restoration, but local increases up to 30 % occurred in the Joe Bay area near Taylor Slough, and local decreases up to 30 % occurred in the vicinity of Buttonwood Canal due to changes in salinity and freshwater flows.

Regional growth, structural change, and natural disaster

Hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and other serious natural hazards have been attributed with causing changes in regional economic growth, income, employment, and wealth. Natural disasters are said to cause; (1) an acceleration of existing economic trends; (2) an expansion of employment and income, due to recovery operations (the so-called silver lining); and (3) an alteration in the structure of regional economic activity due to changes in "intra" and "inter" regional trading patterns, and technological change.^ Theoretical and stylized disaster simulations (Cochrane 1975; Haas, Cochrane, and Kates 1977; Petak et al. 1982; Ellson et al. 1983, 1984; Boisvert 1992; Brookshire and McKee 1992) point towards a wide scope of possible negative and long lasting impacts upon economic activity and structure. This work examines the consequences of Hurricane Andrew on Dade County's economy. Following the work of Ellson et al. (1984), Guimaraes et al. (1993), and West and Lenze (1993; 1994), a regional econometric forecasting model (DCEFM) using a framework of "with" and "without" the hurricane is constructed and utilized to assess Hurricane Andrew's impact on the structure and level of economic activity in Dade County, Florida.^ The results of the simulation exercises show that the direct economic impact associated with Hurricane Andrew on Dade County is of short duration, and of isolated sectoral impact, with impact generally limited to construction, TCP (transportation, communications, and public utilities), and agricultural sectors. Regional growth, and changes in income and employment reacted directly to, and within the range and direction set by national economic activity. The simulations also lead to the conclusion that areal extent, infrastructure, and sector specific damages or impacts, as opposed to monetary losses, are the primary determinants of a disaster's effects upon employment, income, growth, and economic structure. ^

The relationship between educational placement, instructional practices, and achievement gains of Black students with specific learning disabilities in secondary urban school settings

Black students, in general, are underserved academically (Darling-Hammond, 2000; Townsend, 2002) and overrepresented in special education (Donovan & Cross, 2002). Black students with disabilities are further overrepresented in more restrictive educational environments (Skiba, Poloni-Staudinger, Gallini, Simmons & Feggins-Azziz, 2006). Although the National Longitudinal Transition Study 2 (NLTS2) revealed that the academic performance of students with learning disabilities is positively related to the percentage of courses taken in the general education setting (Newman, 2006), the research specifically on placement of Black students with disabilities, particularly at the secondary level, as it relates to academic achievement is lacking. While previous studies have sought to determine which placement is better for students with disabilities, no study was found that specifically examined the impact of placement specific to Black students with specific learning disabilities (SLD) in urban settings (Fore, III, Hagan-Burke, Burke, Boon & Smith, 2008; Rea, McLaughlin & Walther-Thomas, 2002). This study examined educational placement, instructional best practices, and achievement gains of Black students with SLD in urban secondary settings using an ex post facto research design. Achievement, placement, and demographic data were collected and analyzed on approximately 314 Black eighth grade students with SLD. The Teacher Instructional Practices Survey was developed and used to collect and analyze data from the teachers of 78 of these students as it relates to instructional best practices. Results indicate no significant difference in reading but a significant difference in math gains of students served in inclusive settings as compared to resource settings with a small effect size. Also, no significant relationship was found between achievement gains and the reported use of instructional best practices. However, there was a relationship between educational placement and the use of instructional best practices. The results implied that there is a need for training with both general and special education teachers on instructional best practices for SWD and that there should be certain IEP team considerations when making placement decisions for this population of students with disabilities. It is recommended that future research in this area include classroom observations and factors other than test scores to measure growth in achievement.

Comparison of community structure of mangrove and riprap rock habitats along urban coastlines of south Florida

Globally, mangrove ecosystems have substantially declined, largely a result of human impacts. Mangroves provide a number of ecosystem services such as shoreline stabilization and nursery habitat for fish species. As declines continue, many of these ecosystem services are lost or altered. The need for shoreline stabilization has become increasingly apparent when chronic erosion wear away coastlines once mangroves are removed. Limestone boulders called riprap have been employed to offset continued erosion associated with mangrove clearing. In urban coastal areas adjacent to Biscayne Bay, Florida, as much as 80 percent of mangroves have been lost. More recently, riprap has been used in conjunction with mangroves to restore wetlands throughout the Bay. This riprap-mangrove habitat provides structure for marine organisms to colonize. However, fish assemblages and benthic composition could vary between this hybridized habitat and natural mangrove systems. Comparisons of fish and benthic community structure were made, to determine if abundance, species richness, and overall diversity differed between the two habitat types. Visual census and benthic quadrat surveys were conducted in vi mangrove and mangrove-riprap sites within two regions of Biscayne Bay. Total fish abundance was greater in mangroves, but the effect of habitat type on species richness varied between regions. The community structure of fishes and benthic composition differed significantly between mangroves and riprap habitats. Because species composition is so distinct, it is likely that the two communities do no function in the same manner. In areas with cleared shorelines, it may be important to consider the function of added anthropogenic structure for ecological communities.

The impact of Round II Urban Empowerment Zones on local communities

In the United States, the federal Empowerment Zone (EZ) program aimed to create and retain business investment in poor communities and to encourage local hiring through the use of special tax credits, relaxed regulations, social service grants, and other incentives. My dissertation explores whether the Round II Urban EZs had a beneficial impact on local communities and what factors influenced the implementation and performance of the EZs, using three modes of inquiry. First, linear regression models investigate whether the federal revitalization program had a statistically significant impact on the creation of new businesses and jobs in Round II Urban EZ communities. Second, location quotient and shift-share analysis are used to reveal the industry clusters in three EZ communities that experienced positive business and job growth. Third, qualitative analysis is employed to explore factors that influenced the implementation and performance of EZs in general, and in particular, Miami-Dade County, Florida. The results show an EZ's presence failed to have a significant influence on local business and job growth. In communities that experienced a beneficial impact from EZs, there has been a pattern of decline in manufacturing companies and increase in service-driven firms. The case study suggests that institutional factors, such as governance structure, leadership, administrative capacity, and community participation have affected the effectiveness of the program's implementation and performance.

Population viability analyses of Chamaecrista keyensis (Leguminosae: Caesalpinioideae), a narrowly endemic herb of the lower Florida Keys: Effects of seasonal timing of fires and the urban -wildland interface

This research first evaluated the effects of urban wildland interface on reproductive biology of the Big Pine Partridge Pea, Chamaecrista keyensis, an understory herb that is endemic to Big Pine Key, Florida. I found that C. keyensis was self-compatible, but depended on bees for seed set. Furthermore, individuals of C. keyensis in urban habitats suffered higher seed predation and therefore set fewer seeds than forest interior plants. ^ I then focused on the effects of fire at different times of the year, summer (wet) and winter (dry), on the population dynamics and population viability of C. keyensis. I found that C. keyensis population recovered faster after winter burns and early summer burns (May–June) than after late summer burns (July–September) due to better survival and seedling recruitment following former fires. Fire intensity had positive effects on reproduction of C. keyensis. In contrast, no significant fire intensity effects were found on survival, growth, and seedling recruitment. This indicated that better survival and seedling recruitment following winter and early summer burns (compared with late summer burns) were due to the reproductive phenology of the plant in relation to fires rather than differences in fire intensity. Deterministic population modeling showed that time since fire significantly affected the finite population growth rates (λ). Particularly, recently burned plots had the largest λ. In addition, effects of timing of fires on λ were most pronounced the year of burn, but not the subsequent years. The elasticity analyses suggested that maximizing survival is an effective way to minimize the reduction in finite population growth rate the year of burn. Early summer fires or dry-season fires may achieve this objective. Finally, stochastic simulations indicated that the C. keyensis population had lower extinction risk and population decline probability if burned in the winter than in the late summer. A fire frequency of approximately 7 years would create the lowest extinction probability for C. keyensis. A fire management regime including a wide range of burning seasons may be essential for the continued existence of C. keyensis and other endemic species of pine rockland on Big Pine Key. ^

Monitoring of Tree Island Condition in the Southern Everglades: Hydrologic Driven Decadal Changes in Tree Island Woody Vegetation Structure and Composition: 2012 Annual Report

This report examines the interaction between hydrology and vegetation over a 10-year period, between 2001/02 and 2012 within six permanent tree island plots located on three tree islands, two plots each per tree island, established in 2001/02, along a hydrologic and productivity gradient. We hypothesize that: (H1) hydrologic differences within plots between census dates will result in marked differences in a) tree and sapling densities, b) tree basal area, and c) forest structure, i.e., canopy volume and height, and (H2) tree island growth, development, and succession is dependent on hydrologic fluxes, particularly during periods of prolonged droughts or below average hydroperiods.

Sistematización in Urban Disaster Risk Reduction

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of sistematización’s use as a research tool in the operationalization of a “neighborhood approach” to the implementation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) in informal urban settlements. Design/methodology/approach – The first section highlights sistematización’s historical origins in Latin America in the fields of popular adult education, social work, and rural development. The second explains why sistematización was made a required component of project implementation. The third section addresses the approach to sistematización used. The final discusses how this experience both contributes to sistematización’s theoretical development and practical application as a methodology. Findings – The introduction of “sistematización” as a research tool facilitated real-time assessment of project implementation, providing timely information that positively influenced decision-making processes. This on-going feedback, collective learning, and open-exchange of know-how between NGOs and partner institutions allowed for the evaluation of existing practices and development of new ways of collaborating to address disaster risk in complex and dynamic urban environments. Practical implications – Sistematización transcends the narrow focus of traditional monitoring and evaluation on final results, emphasizing a comprehensive understanding of processes and contexts. Originality/value – Its use in the implementation of DRR initiatives in informal urban environments is particularly novel, highlighting the capacity of the methodology to be tailored to a variety of needs, in this case, bridging the gap between NGOs, local governments, and vulnerable communities, as well as between urban, development, and disaster risk management planning.

Climate, Land Use and Hydrologic Sensitivities of Stormwater Quantity and Quality in Complex Coastal Urban Watersheds

The study analyzed hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff and quality in the complex coastal urban watershed of Miami River Basin, Florida by developing a Storm Water Management Model (EPA SWMM 5). Regression-based empirical models were also developed to explain stream water quality in relation to internal (land uses and hydrology) and external (upstream contribution, seawater) sources and drivers in six highly urbanized canal basins of Southeast Florida. Stormwater runoff and quality were most sensitive to rainfall, imperviousness, and conversion of open lands/parks to residential, commercial and industrial areas. In-stream dissolved oxygen and total phosphorus in the watersheds were dictated by internal stressors while external stressors were dominant for total nitrogen and specific conductance. The research findings and tools will be useful for proactive monitoring and management of storm runoff and urban stream water quality under the changing climate and environment in South Florida and around the world.