6 resultados para Modèle de Lee-Carter

em Digital Commons at Florida International University


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Coral reefs are experiencing declines worldwide and recently coral diseases have been identified as significant contributors to coral mortality. However, little is known regarding the factors that drive coral disease distributions and dynamics. Current knowledge of the organisms that cause coral diseases is also limited, with pathogens having been identified for only 5 of the 21 described coral diseases. The study presented here describes coral disease dynamics in terms of occurrence, prevalence, spatial distribution, and host species susceptibility from 2002--2004 on reefs of the Northern Florida Keys (NFK) and Lee Stocking Island (LSI) in the Bahamas' Exuma chain. In addition, this research investigated the influence of temperature, sediment, and nutrient availability on coral disease prevalence and severity. Finally, microbial communities associated with a polymicrobial disease, black band, were examined to address spatial and temporal variability. ^ Four scleractinian diseases were observed in repeated surveys conducted during June-August of each year: black band disease (BBD), white plague type 2 (WP), dark spots syndrome (DSS), and yellow band disease-(YBD). Coral disease prevalence was generally low in both the NFK and LSI as compared to epizootic levels reported previously in the NFK and other regions of the Caribbean. Disease prevalence and species susceptibility varied spatially and temporally. Massive framework species, including Siderastrea siderea, Colpophyllia natans, and Montastraea annularis, along with relatively smaller colonies of Meandrina meandrites and Dichocoenia stokesi, were most susceptible to disease. Temperature, sedimentation, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen were positively correlated with BBD infections. Furthermore, experimental nutrient enrichment exacerbated coral tissue loss to BBD both in situ and in vivo. Profiling of BBD microbial communities using length heterogeneity PCR revealed variation over space and time, with significantly distinct bacterial assemblages in the NFK, LSI, and US Virgin Islands. ^ This study contributes to knowledge of the relationship between coral diseases and the environment, and facilitates predictions regarding potential changes in coral reef communities under differing environmental conditions. Additionally, this research provides further understanding of coral disease dynamics at both the host and microbial pathogen levels.^

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President Jimmy Carter once said, "I had a different way of governing." In attempting to explain what he meant by this, Carter has been variously described as a political amateur, a trustee, a non-political politician, an "active-positive" president, and a forerunner of the 1990s' New Democrats. It is argued here, however, that mere secular descriptions and categories such as these do not adequately capture the essence of Carter's brand of politics and his understanding of the presidency. Rejecting Richard Neustadt's prescriptions for effective presidential leadership, Carter thought political bargaining and compromise were "dirty" and "sinful." He deemed the ways of Washington as "evil," and considered many, if not most, career politicians immoral. While he fully supported the institutional separation of church and state, politics for Carter was about "doing right," telling the truth, and making the United States and the world "a better demonstration of what Christ is." Like two earlier Democrats, William Jennings Bryan and Woodrow Wilson, Carter understood politics as an alternative form of Christian ministry and service. In this regard, Carter was a presidential exception. Carter's evangelical faith gave his politics meaning, skill, vision, and a framework for communication. Using Fred Greenstein's categories of presidential leadership, Carter's faith provided him with "emotional intelligence", too. However, Carter's evangelical style provoked many of his contemporaries, including many of his fellow Democrats. To his critics at home and abroad, Carter was often accused of being arrogant, stubborn, naive, and ultimately a political failure. But as evinced by his indispensable role in negotiating peace between Israel and Egypt, his leadership style also provided him some remarkable achievements. The research here is based on a thorough examination of President Carter's many writings, his public papers, interviews, and opinion pieces. Written accounts from former Carter administration officials and from Israeli and Egyptian participants at Camp David are also used. This project is largely descriptive, qualitative in approach, but quantitative data are used when appropriate and as supplements.

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This flyer promotes the event "One Voice, Two Attitudes: Perceptions of Spanish and English among Cuban Americans in Miami Lecture by Phillip M. Carter" hosted by the Cuban Research Institute.

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http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/fce_lter_photos/1298/thumbnail.jpg

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