A diagnostic framework for demand amplification problems in supply chains

This dissertation delivers a framework to diagnose the Bull-Whip Effect (BWE) in supply chains and then identify methods to minimize it. Such a framework is needed because in spite of the significant amount of literature discussing the bull-whip effect, many companies continue to experience the wide variations in demand that are indicative of the bull-whip effect. While the theory and knowledge of the bull-whip effect is well established, there still is the lack of an engineering framework and method to systematically identify the problem, diagnose its causes, and identify remedies. ^ The present work seeks to fill this gap by providing a holistic, systems perspective to bull-whip identification and diagnosis. The framework employs the SCOR reference model to examine the supply chain processes with a baseline measure of demand amplification. Then, research of the supply chain structural and behavioral features is conducted by means of the system dynamics modeling method. ^ The contribution of the diagnostic framework, is called Demand Amplification Protocol (DAMP), relies not only on the improvement of existent methods but also contributes with original developments introduced to accomplish successful diagnosis. DAMP contributes a comprehensive methodology that captures the dynamic complexities of supply chain processes. The method also contributes a BWE measurement method that is suitable for actual supply chains because of its low data requirements, and introduces a BWE scorecard for relating established causes to a central BWE metric. In addition, the dissertation makes a methodological contribution to the analysis of system dynamic models with a technique for statistical screening called SS-Opt, which determines the inputs with the greatest impact on the bull-whip effect by means of perturbation analysis and subsequent multivariate optimization. The dissertation describes the implementation of the DAMP framework in an actual case study that exposes the approach, analysis, results and conclusions. The case study suggests a balanced solution between costs and demand amplification can better serve both firms and supply chain interests. Insights pinpoint to supplier network redesign, postponement in manufacturing operations and collaborative forecasting agreements with main distributors.^

Group cognitive -behavioral therapy for heterogeneous anxiety disorders in children and adolescents: A multiple baseline study

This study investigated the efficacy of Group Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (GCBT) in the treatment of heterogeneous anxiety disorders in children. A partially nonconcurrent multiple baseline across groups design was used to assess the effects of the treatment on 12 clinically referred children and adolescents between 6 and 16 years of age who met DSM-IV criteria for an anxiety disorder. Targeted diagnoses included Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, Simple Phobia, Separation Anxiety Disorder, Social Phobia, and Generalized Anxiety Disorder, with three of the children also presenting with school refusal behavior. Duration of baseline for each of the three groups varied and ran for one, two, or three weeks. Dependent measures included diagnostic status, child and parent-completed reports, and daily child and parent ratings of child anxiety severity. Results indicated that GCBT was efficacious in reducing anxious symptoms in children and adolescents treated in diagnostically heterogeneous groups, and that gains were generally maintained at 6 and 12 month follow-ups. Findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical and practical implications for the efficient treatment of children and adolescents with anxiety disorders. ^

Individual child cognitive behavioral treatment versus child-parent cognitive behavioral treatments for anxiety disorders in children and adolescents: Comparative outcomes

Anxiety disorders; such as separation anxiety disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia and specific phobia, are widespread in children and adolescents. Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) has been shown to be effective in reducing excessive fears and anxieties in children and adolescents. Research has produced equivocal findings that involving parents in treatment of child anxiety enhances effects over individual CBT (ICBT). The present dissertation study examined whether parental involvement can enhance individual treatment effect if the parent conditions are streamlined by targeting specific parental variables. The first parent condition, Parent Reinforcement Skills Training (RFST), involved increasing mothers' use of positive reinforcement and decreasing use of negative reinforcement. The second parent condition, Parent Relationship Skill Training (RLST), involved increasing maternal child acceptance and decreasing maternal control (or increasing autonomy granting). Results of the present dissertation findings support the use of all three treatment conditions (ICBT, RLST, RFST) for child anxiety; that is, significant reductions in anxiety were found in each of the three treatment conditions. No significant differences were found between treatment conditions with respect to diagnostic recovery rate, clinician rating, and parent rating of child anxiety. Significant differences between conditions were found on child self rating of anxiety, with some evidence to support the superiority of RLST and RFST to ICBT. These findings support the efficacy of individual, as well as parent involved CBT, and provide mixed evidence with respect to the superiority of parent involved CBT over ICBT. The conceptual, empirical, and clinical implications of the findings are discussed. ^

The Influence of Psychological Predictors and Cognitive Behavioral Stress Management Intervention on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Adherence Among HIV-Positive Female Haitian Alcohol Users

Purpose: Over half the HIV-infected persons in the Caribbean, the second most HIV-impacted region in the world, live in Haiti. Using secondary data from a parent study, this research assessed the effects of psychological and social factors on antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence among Haitian, HIV-positive, female alcohol users. Theoretical Foundation and Research Questions: Using the Theory of Planned Behavior/Reasoned Action and the Information, Motivation, Behavior skills model as guiding theoretical frameworks, the study examined the effectiveness of an adapted cognitive behavioral stress management (CBSM-A) intervention in improving ART adherence. The effect of psychological factors (depression, anxiety, beliefs about medicine, and social support), social factors (stigma, relationship status, and educational attainment), and alcohol on adherence to ART was assessed. Methods: The sample consisted of 116 female ART patients who were randomly assigned to the CBSM-A intervention or the wait-list control group. Participants completed intervention sessions as well as pre- and post-test assessments. Analyses of variance, t-tests, and point biserial correlations were used to test hypotheses. Results: Surprisingly, ART adherence rates significantly decreased for both groups combined [F (1, 108) = 8.79, p = .004]; there was no significant difference between the intervention and control groups with regard to the magnitude of change between baseline and post assessment. On average, depression decreased significantly among participants in the CBSM-A group only [(t (62) = 5.54, p < .001)]. For both groups combined, alcohol use significantly decreased between baseline and post-assessment [(F (1, 78) = 34.70, p < .001)]; there was no significant difference between the intervention and control groups with regard to the magnitude of change between baseline and post-assessment. None of the variables were significantly correlated with ART adherence. Discussion: Adherence to ART did not improve in this sample, nor were any of the variables significantly associated with adherence. The findings suggest that additional supportive and psychological services may be needed in order to promote higher adherence to ART among HIV-positive females. More research may be needed on this sample; a focus on mental health issues, partner conflict, family and sexual history may allow for better targeting and more successful interventions.

Individual Child Cognitive Behavioral Treatment versus Child-Parent Cognitive Behavioral Treatments for Anxiety Disorders in Children and Adolescents: Comparative Outcomes

Anxiety disorders; such as separation anxiety disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia and specific phobia, are widespread in children and adolescents. Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) has been shown to be effective in reducing excessive fears and anxieties in children and adolescents. Research has produced equivocal findings that involving parents in treatment of child anxiety enhances effects over individual CBT (ICBT). The present dissertation study examined whether parental involvement can enhance individual treatment effect if the parent conditions are streamlined by targeting specific parental variables. The first parent condition, Parent Reinforcement Skills Training (RFST), involved increasing mothers’ use of positive reinforcement and decreasing use of negative reinforcement. The second parent condition, Parent Relationship Skill Training (RLST), involved increasing maternal child acceptance and decreasing maternal control (or increasing autonomy granting). Results of the present dissertation findings support the use of all three treatment conditions (ICBT, RLST, RFST) for child anxiety; that is, significant reductions in anxiety were found in each of the three treatment conditions. No significant differences were found between treatment conditions with respect to diagnostic recovery rate, clinician rating, and parent rating of child anxiety. Significant differences between conditions were found on child self rating of anxiety, with some evidence to support the superiority of RLST and RFST to ICBT. These findings support the efficacy of individual, as well as parent involved CBT, and provide mixed evidence with respect to the superiority of parent involved CBT over ICBT. The conceptual, empirical, and clinical implications of the findings are discussed.