Voting with their feet: Migration, partisanship, and party-safe elections in Florida

Political scientists have long noted that Congressional elections are often uncompetitive, often extremely so. Many scholars argue that the cause lies in the partisan redistricting of Congressional districts, or “gerrymandering”. Other scholars emphasize polarization created by a fragmented news media, or the candidate choices made by a more ideological primary electorate. All these explanations identify the cause of party-safe elections in institutions of various kinds. This dissertation, by contrast, presents a structural explanation of uncompetitive elections. My theory is that population composition and patterns of migration are significant causes and predictors of election results in Florida. I test this theory empirically by comparing the predictions from four hypotheses against aggregate data, using the county as the unit of analysis. The first hypothesis is that Florida can be divided into clearly distinguishable, persistent partisan sections. This hypothesis is confirmed. The second hypothesis is that Florida voters have become increasingly partisan over time. This hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis is that the degree of migration into a county predicts how that county will vote. This hypothesis is partially confirmed, for the migration effect appears to have waned over time. The last hypothesis is that the degree of religiosity of a county population is a predictor of how that county will vote. This hypothesis is also supported by the results of statistical analysis. By identifying the structural causes of party-safe elections, this dissertation not only broadens our understanding of elections in Florida, but also sheds light on the current polarization in American politics.

The impact of migration and intergenerational changes on the Cuban family in the United States

This study examines changes in the Cuban family in the United States produced by time, migration, and the rise of new generations. The thesis will use a data set extracted from the 5% Public Use Microdata Series (PUMS) of the U.S. Decennial Census of Population for the years 1970, 1980 and 1990. Contingency table analysis and comparison of means were used to examine various family-related variables. The analysis points to changes in the traditional Cuban family towards less traditional family arrangements. The multigenerational feature of the Cuban household has diminished as the elderly have become independent and are more likely to be living on their own. Although female labor participation remains high, the occupational patterns of the first generation of Cuban women have diversified and a new trend has emerged for the second generation. The second generation of Cuban women demonstrates a strong inclination for white-collar occupations. Fertility rates remain low.