A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.

Measuring the arts: The case of Dade County nonprofits arts organizations

The theoretical analysis and research of cultural activities have been limited, for the most part, to the study of the role the public sector plays in the funding and support of nonprofit Arts organizations. The tools used to evaluate this intervention follow a macroeconomic perspective and fail to account for microeconomic principles and assumptions that affect the behavior of these organizations. This dissertation describes through conceptual models the behavior of the agents involved in the artistic process and the economic sectors affected by it. The first paper deals with issues related to economic impact studies and formulates a set of guidelines that should be followed when conducting this type of study. One of the ways to assess more accurately the impact culture has in a community is by assuming that artists can re-create the public space of a blight community and get it ready for a regeneration process. The second paper of this dissertation assumes just that and explains in detail all the cultural, political, economic and sociological interactions that are taking place in the Arts-led regeneration process in Miami Beach, Florida. The paper models the behavior of these agents by indicating what their goals and decision process mechanisms are. The results give support to the claim that the public space artists create in a city actually stimulate development. The third paper discusses the estimation of a demand function for artistic activities, specifically the New World Symphony (NWS) located in Miami Beach, Florida. The behavior of the consumers and producers of NWS' concerts is modeled. The results support the notion that consumers make their decisions based, among other things, on the perceived value these concerts have. Economists engage in the analysis of the effects of cultural activities in a community since many cities rely on them for their development. The history of many communities is not told by their assembly lines and machinery anymore but by their centers of entertainment, hotels and restaurants. Many cities in Europe and North America that have seen the manufacturing sector migrate to the South are trying to face the demands of the new economy by using the Arts as catalysts for development. ^

A methodological framework for modeling pavement maintenance costs for projects with performance-based contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

An incremental multilinear system for human face learning and recognition

This dissertation establishes a novel system for human face learning and recognition based on incremental multilinear Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Most of the existing face recognition systems need training data during the learning process. The system as proposed in this dissertation utilizes an unsupervised or weakly supervised learning approach, in which the learning phase requires a minimal amount of training data. It also overcomes the inability of traditional systems to adapt to the testing phase as the decision process for the newly acquired images continues to rely on that same old training data set. Consequently when a new training set is to be used, the traditional approach will require that the entire eigensystem will have to be generated again. However, as a means to speed up this computational process, the proposed method uses the eigensystem generated from the old training set together with the new images to generate more effectively the new eigensystem in a so-called incremental learning process. In the empirical evaluation phase, there are two key factors that are essential in evaluating the performance of the proposed method: (1) recognition accuracy and (2) computational complexity. In order to establish the most suitable algorithm for this research, a comparative analysis of the best performing methods has been carried out first. The results of the comparative analysis advocated for the initial utilization of the multilinear PCA in our research. As for the consideration of the issue of computational complexity for the subspace update procedure, a novel incremental algorithm, which combines the traditional sequential Karhunen-Loeve (SKL) algorithm with the newly developed incremental modified fast PCA algorithm, was established. In order to utilize the multilinear PCA in the incremental process, a new unfolding method was developed to affix the newly added data at the end of the previous data. The results of the incremental process based on these two methods were obtained to bear out these new theoretical improvements. Some object tracking results using video images are also provided as another challenging task to prove the soundness of this incremental multilinear learning method.

A Methodological Framework for Modeling Pavement Maintenance Costs for Projects with Performance-based Contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

The relationship between student characteristics, computer literacy,technology acceptance, and distance education student satisfaction

The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between the characteristics of distance education students, their computer literacy and technology acceptance and distance education course satisfaction. The theoretical framework for this study will apply Rogers and Havelock's Innovation, Diffusion & Utilization theories to distance education. It is hypothesized that technology acceptance and computer competency will influence the student course satisfaction and explain the decision to adopt or reject distance education curriculum and technology. Distance education delivery, Institutional Support, Convenience, Interactivity and five distance education technologies were studied. The data were collected by a survey questionnaire sent to four Florida universities. Three hundred and nineteen and students returned the questionnaire. A factor and regression analysis on three measure of satisfaction revealed significant difference between the three main factors related to the overall satisfaction of distance education students and their adoption of distance education technology as medium of learning. Computer literacy is significantly related to greater overall student satisfaction. However, when competing with other factors such as delivery, support, interactivity, and convenience, computer literacy is not significant. Results indicate that age and status are the only two student characteristics to be significant. Distance education technology acceptance is positively related to higher overall satisfaction. Innovativeness is also positively related to student overall satisfaction. Finally, the technology used relates positively to greater satisfaction levels within the educational experience. Additional research questions were investigated and provided insights into the innovation decision process.

Essays on the impact of stakeholders' sentiment on the financial decision making process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors’ sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, “ Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices”, a new technical trading strategy was developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results indicate that sample firms trade within a range and give signals as to when to buy or sell. In the second essay, “Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm”, examined the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Final analysis reported that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. Changes in the cost of capital, weighted cost of average capital were found due to managerial sentiment. In the last essay, “Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection”, analyzed how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the portfolio performance. Results suggested that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicated the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicator for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

The role of overseas Chinese investment in the emerging countries of Southeast and East Asia: A Confucian model of the foreign direct investment decision-making process using factors unconsidered in the West

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of the foreign direct investment location decision making process through the examination of non-Western investors and their investment strategies in non-traditional markets. This was accomplished through in-depth personal interviews with 50 Overseas Chinese business owners and executives in several different industries from Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand about 97 separate investment projects in Southeast and East Asia, including The Philippines, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, India, Pakistan, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, Taiwan, and Mainland China.^ Traditional factors utilized in Western models of the foreign direct investment decision making process are reviewed, as well as literature on Asian management systems and the current state of business practices in emerging countries of Southeast and East Asia. Because of the lack of institutionalization in these markets and the strong influences of Confucian and patriarchal value systems on the Overseas Chinese, it was suspected that while some aspects of Western rational economic models of foreign direct investment are utilized, these models are insufficient in this context, and thus are not fully generalizable to the unique conditions of the Overseas Chinese business network in the region without further modification.^ Thus, other factors based on a Confucian value system need to be integrated into these models. Results from the analysis of structured interviews suggest Overseas Chinese businesses rely more heavily on their network and traditional Confucian values than rational economic factors when making their foreign direct investment location decisions in emerging countries in Asia. This effect is moderated by the firm's industry and the age of the firm's owners. ^