A Look Back To Look Forward: New Patterns In The Supply/Demand Equation In The Lodging Industry

In his dialogue entitled - A Look Back to Look Forward: New Patterns In The Supply/Demand Equation In The Lodging Industry - by Albert J. Gomes, Senior Principal, Pannell Kerr Forster, Washington, D.C. What the author intends for you to know is the following: “Factors which influence the lodging industry in the United States are changing that industry as far as where hotels are being located, what clientele is being served, and what services are being provided at different facilities. The author charts these changes and makes predictions for the future.” Gomes initially alludes to the evolution of transportation – the human, animal, mechanical progression - and how those changes, in the last 100 years or so, have had a significant impact on the hotel industry. “A look back to look forward treats the past as prologue. American hoteliers are in for some startling changes in their business,” Gomes says. “The man who said that the three most important determinants for the success of a hotel were “location, location, location” did a lot of good only in the short run.” Gomes wants to make you aware of the existence of what he calls, “locational obsolescence.” “Locational obsolescence is a fact of life, and at least in the United States bears a direct correlation to evolutionary changes in transportation technology,” he says. “…the primary business of the hospitality industry is to serve travelers or people who are being transported,” Gomes expands the point. Tied to the transportation element, the author also points out an interesting distinction between hotels and motels. In addressing, “…what clientele is being served, and what services are being provided at different facilities,” Gomes suggests that the transportation factor influences these constituents as well. Also coupled with this discussion are oil prices and shifts in transportation habits, with reference to airline travel being an ever increasing method of travel; capturing much of the inter-city travel market. Gomes refers to airline deregulation as an impetus. The point being, it’s a fluid market rather than a static one, and [successful] hospitality properties need to be cognizant of market dynamics and be able to adjust to the variables in their marketplace. Gomes provides many facts and figures to bolster his assertions. Interestingly and perceptively, at the time of this writing, Gomes alludes to America’s deteriorating road and bridge network. As of right now, in 2009, this is a major issue. Gomes rounds out this study by comparing European hospitality trends to those in the U.S.

Influence of habitat on the reproductive ecology of the Amazonian palm, Mauritia flexuosa, in Roraima, Brazil

Although Mauritia flexuosa (Arecaceae) plays a pivotal role in the ecology and economy of the Amazon, and occurs in a variety of habitats, little is known about the influence of habitat on the reproductive biology of this palm. My dissertation focuses on the reproductive biology of M. flexuosa in three habitats in Roraima, Brazil: undisturbed forest, undisturbed forest-savanna ecotone, and savanna disturbed by plantations of the exotic tree, Acacia mangium. First, I calculated sex ratios and linked precipitation patterns with phenology. Sex ratios were female-biased. Precipitation was negatively associated with flowering, and positively associated with fruiting. Habitat appears to have no significant influence on phenology of M. flexuosa, although short-term climate variation may affect phenology of this species. Second, I examined floral biology, observed floral visitors, and performed exclusion experiments to determine the pollination system of M. flexuosa. Fruit set did not differ significantly between the visitor exclusion treatment and the control, but was significantly lowest in the wind + visitor exclusion treatment, suggesting that this dioecious palm is anemophilous, independent of habitat. Third, I identified the abiotic and biotic factors explaining variation in fruit mass, seed mass, seed number per fruit, and total fruit yield among habitats. Soil moisture and flooding during the wet season were the best predictors of fruit and seed output. The number of leaves, diameter at breast height, and height were all accurate predictors of reproductive output, but crown volume did not accurately predict fruit yields. Results re-evaluate traditional assumptions about wind-pollination in the tropics, and highlight abiotic and biotic factors responsible for variation in reproductive output of M. flexuosa, with implications for effective management of this palm. Finally, I interviewed harvesters and vendors to document the traditional knowledge and market dynamics of the fruit of M. flexuosa, buriti. Traditional knowledge corroborated results from scientific studies. Vendors argued that the price of buriti must increase, and must fluctuate with varying supply. With appropriate economic incentives to vendors/harvesters, Roraima may expand its market infrastructure for buriti, effectively stimulating the regional economy and practicing sustainable harvesting.

Influence of Habitat on the Reproductive Ecology of the Amazonian Palm, Mauritia flexuosa, in Roraima, Brazil

Although Mauritia flexuosa (Arecaceae) plays a pivotal role in the ecology and economy of the Amazon, and occurs in a variety of habitats, little is known about the influence of habitat on the reproductive biology of this palm. My dissertation focuses on the reproductive biology of M. flexuosa in three habitats in Roraima, Brazil: undisturbed forest, undisturbed forest-savanna ecotone, and savanna disturbed by plantations of the exotic tree, Acacia mangium. First, I calculated sex ratios and linked precipitation patterns with phenology. Sex ratios were female-biased. Precipitation was negatively associated with flowering, and positively associated with fruiting. Habitat appears to have no significant influence on phenology of M. flexuosa, although short-term climate variation may affect phenology of this species. Second, I examined floral biology, observed floral visitors, and performed exclusion experiments to determine the pollination system of M. flexuosa. Fruit set did not differ significantly between the visitor exclusion treatment and the control, but was significantly lowest in the wind + visitor exclusion treatment, suggesting that this dioecious palm is anemophilous, independent of habitat. Third, I identified the abiotic and biotic factors explaining variation in fruit mass, seed mass, seed number per fruit, and total fruit yield among habitats. Soil moisture and flooding during the wet season were the best predictors of fruit and seed output. The number of leaves, diameter at breast height, and height were all accurate predictors of reproductive output, but crown volume did not accurately predict fruit yields. Results re-evaluate traditional assumptions about wind-pollination in the tropics, and highlight abiotic and biotic factors responsible for variation in reproductive output of M. flexuosa, with implications for effective management of this palm. Finally, I interviewed harvesters and vendors to document the traditional knowledge and market dynamics of the fruit of M. flexuosa, buriti. Traditional knowledge corroborated results from scientific studies. Vendors argued that the price of buriti must increase, and must fluctuate with varying supply. With appropriate economic incentives to vendors/harvesters, Roraima may expand its market infrastructure for buriti, effectively stimulating the regional economy and practicing sustainable harvesting.

The commercial bark harvest of the African cherry (Prunus africana) on Mount Oku, Cameroon: Effects on traditional uses and population dynamics

Bark extracts of the African cherry (Prunus africana) are used to treat benign prostatic hyperplasia. This study examined the effects of commercial bark harvest on population dynamics in the Kilum-Ijim Forest Preserve on Mount Oku, Cameroon and on traditional uses. P. africana is valued for its timber and as fuel although its greatest value is as a traditional medicine for human and animal ailments. Harvest has depleted the resource and has eroded traditional forest protection practices. I constructed matrix models to examine the effects of bark harvest on population structure and on population dynamics in harvested and unharvested populations. Harvesting simulations examined the effect on the population growth rate (λ) with differing levels of mortality of harvest-sized and large trees and differing harvest frequencies. Size class frequencies for the entire forest decreased in a reverse j-shaped curve, indicating adequate recruitment in the absence of harvest. Individual plots showed differences from the overall forest data, suggesting effects of natural and man-made perturbations, particularly due to bark harvest. One plot (harvested in the 1980s) showed a temporal difference in λ and fluctuated around one, due to alternating high and low fruiting years; other unharvested plots showed smaller temporal differences. Harvested plots (harvested illegally in 1997) had values of λ less than one and showed small temporal differences. The control plot also showed λ less than one, due to poor recruitment in the closed canopy forest. The value of λ for the combined data was 0.9931 suggesting a slightly declining population. The elasticity matrix for the combined data indicated the population growth rate was most sensitive to the survival of the large reproductive trees (42.5% of the elasticity). In perturbation analyses, reducing the survival of the large trees caused the largest reductions in λ. Simulations involving harvesting frequency indicated λ returns to pre-harvest conditions if trees are re-harvested after 10–15 years, but only if the large trees are left unharvested. Management scenarios suggest harvest can be sustainable if seedlings and small saplings are planted in the forest and actively managed, although large-scale plantations may be the only feasible option to meet market demand. ^

Three essays on market depth in futures markets

Liquidity is an important market characteristic for participants in every financial market. One of the three components of liquidity is market depth. Prior literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of depth in U.S. futures markets due to past limitations on the availability of data. However, recent innovations in data collection and dissemination provide new opportunities to investigate the depth dimension of liquidity. In this dissertation, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group proprietary database on depth is employed to study the dynamics of depth in the U.S. futures markets. This database allows for the analysis of depth along the entire limit order book rather than just at the first level. The first essay examines the characteristics of depth within the context of the five-deep limit order book. Results show that a large amount of depth is present in the book beyond the best level. Furthermore, the findings show that the characteristics of five-deep depth between day and night trading vary and that depth is unequal across levels within the limit order book. The second essay examines the link between the five-deep market depth and the bid-ask spread. The results suggest an inverse relation between the spread and the depth after adjusting for control factors. The third essay explores transitory volatility in relation to depth in the limit order book. Evidence supports the relation between an increase in volatility and a subsequent decrease in market depth. Overall, the results of this dissertation are consistent with limit order traders actively managing depth along the limit order book in electronic U.S. futures markets.

Three Essays on Market Depth in Futures Markets

Liquidity is an important market characteristic for participants in every financial market. One of the three components of liquidity is market depth. Prior literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of depth in U.S. futures markets due to past limitations on the availability of data. However, recent innovations in data collection and dissemination provide new opportunities to investigate the depth dimension of liquidity. In this dissertation, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group proprietary database on depth is employed to study the dynamics of depth in the U.S. futures markets. This database allows for the analysis of depth along the entire limit order book rather than just at the first level. The first essay examines the characteristics of depth within the context of the five-deep limit order book. Results show that a large amount of depth is present in the book beyond the best level. Furthermore, the findings show that the characteristics of five-deep depth between day and night trading vary and that depth is unequal across levels within the limit order book. The second essay examines the link between the five-deep market depth and the bid-ask spread. The results suggest an inverse relation between the spread and the depth after adjusting for control factors. The third essay explores transitory volatility in relation to depth in the limit order book. Evidence supports the relation between an increase in volatility and a subsequent decrease in market depth. Overall, the results of this dissertation are consistent with limit order traders actively managing depth along the limit order book in electronic U.S. futures markets.