Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

The effect of cooperative learning on the attitudes toward science and the achievement of students in a non-science majors' general biology laboratory course at an urban community college

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of cooperative learning strategies on students' attitudes toward science and achievement in BSC 1005L, a non-science majors' general biology laboratory course at an urban community college. Data were gathered on the participants' attitudes toward science and cognitive biology level pre and post treatment in BSC 1005L. Elements of the Learning Together model developed by Johnson and Johnson and the Student Team-Achievement Divisions model created by Slavin were incorporated into the experimental sections of BSC 1005L.^ Four sections of BSC 1005L participated in this study. Participants were enrolled in the 1998 spring (January) term. Students met weekly in a two hour laboratory session. The treatment was administered to the experimental group over a ten week period. A quasi-experimental pretest-posttest control group design was used. Students in the cooperative learning group (n$\sb1$ = 27) were administered the Test of Science-Related Attitudes (TOSRA) and the cognitive biology test at the same time as the control group (n$\sb2$ = 19) (at the beginning and end of the term).^ Statistical analyses confirmed that both groups were equivalent regarding ethnicity, gender, college grade point average and number of absences. Independent sample t-tests performed on pretest mean scores indicated no significant differences in the TOSRA scale two or biology knowledge between the cooperative learning group and the control group. The scores of TOSRA scales: one, three, four, five, six, and seven were significantly lower in the cooperative learning group. Independent sample t-tests of the mean score differences did not show any significant differences in posttest attitudes toward science or biology knowledge between the two groups. Paired t-tests did not indicate any significant differences on the TOSRA or biology knowledge within the cooperative learning group. Paired t-tests did show significant differences within the control group on TOSRA scale two and biology knowledge. ANCOVAs did not indicate any significant differences on the post mean scores of the TOSRA or biology knowledge adjusted by differences in the pretest mean scores. Analysis of the research data did not show any significant correlation between attitudes toward science and biology knowledge. ^

An agent-based model of team coordination and performance

This research is based on the premises that teams can be designed to optimize its performance, and appropriate team coordination is a significant factor to team outcome performance. Contingency theory argues that the effectiveness of a team depends on the right fit of the team design factors to the particular job at hand. Therefore, organizations need computational tools capable of predict the performance of different configurations of teams. This research created an agent-based model of teams called the Team Coordination Model (TCM). The TCM estimates the coordination load and performance of a team, based on its composition, coordination mechanisms, and job’s structural characteristics. The TCM can be used to determine the team’s design characteristics that most likely lead the team to achieve optimal performance. The TCM is implemented as an agent-based discrete-event simulation application built using JAVA and Cybele Pro agent architecture. The model implements the effect of individual team design factors on team processes, but the resulting performance emerges from the behavior of the agents. These team member agents use decision making, and explicit and implicit mechanisms to coordinate the job. The model validation included the comparison of the TCM’s results with statistics from a real team and with the results predicted by the team performance literature. An illustrative 26-1 fractional factorial experimental design demonstrates the application of the simulation model to the design of a team. The results from the ANOVA analysis have been used to recommend the combination of levels of the experimental factors that optimize the completion time for a team that runs sailboats races. This research main contribution to the team modeling literature is a model capable of simulating teams working on complex job environments. The TCM implements a stochastic job structure model capable of capturing some of the complexity not capture by current models. In a stochastic job structure, the tasks required to complete the job change during the team execution of the job. This research proposed three new types of dependencies between tasks required to model a job as a stochastic structure. These dependencies are conditional sequential, single-conditional sequential, and the merge dependencies.