Development of local homeland security networks in the state of Florida: A social network analysis approach

How do local homeland security organizations respond to catastrophic events such as hurricanes and acts of terrorism? Among the most important aspects of this response are these organizations ability to adapt to the uncertain nature of these "focusing events" (Birkland 1997). They are often behind the curve, seeing response as a linear process, when in fact it is a complex, multifaceted process that requires understanding the interactions between the fiscal pressures facing local governments, the institutional pressures of working within a new regulatory framework and the political pressures of bringing together different levels of government with different perspectives and agendas. ^ This dissertation has focused on tracing the factors affecting the individuals and institutions planning, preparing, responding and recovering from natural and man-made disasters. Using social network analysis, my study analyzes the interactions between the individuals and institutions that respond to these "focusing events." In practice, it is the combination of budgetary, institutional, and political pressures or constraints interacting with each other which resembles a Complex Adaptive System (CAS). ^ To investigate this system, my study evaluates the evolution of two separate sets of organizations composed of first responders (Fire Chiefs, Emergency Management Coordinators) and community volunteers organized in the state of Florida over the last fifteen years. Using a social network analysis approach, my dissertation analyzes the interactions between Citizen Corps Councils (CCCs) and Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) in the state of Florida from 1996–2011. It is the pattern of interconnections that occur over time that are the focus of this study. ^ The social network analysis revealed an increase in the amount and density of connections between these organizations over the last fifteen years. The analysis also exposed the underlying patterns in these connections; that as the networks became more complex they also became more decentralized though not in any uniform manner. The present study brings to light a story of how communities have adapted to the ever changing circumstances that are sine qua non of natural and man-made disasters.^

Reverse Engineering of Modified Genes by Bayesian Network Analysis Defines Molecular Determinants Critical to the Development of Glioblastoma

In this study we have identified key genes that are critical in development of astrocytic tumors. Meta-analysis of microarray studies which compared normal tissue to astrocytoma revealed a set of 646 differentially expressed genes in the majority of astrocytoma. Reverse engineering of these 646 genes using Bayesian network analysis produced a gene network for each grade of astrocytoma (Grade I–IV), and ‘key genes’ within each grade were identified. Genes found to be most influential to development of the highest grade of astrocytoma, Glioblastoma multiforme were: COL4A1, EGFR, BTF3, MPP2, RAB31, CDK4, CD99, ANXA2, TOP2A, and SERBP1. All of these genes were up-regulated, except MPP2 (down regulated). These 10 genes were able to predict tumor status with 96–100% confidence when using logistic regression, cross validation, and the support vector machine analysis. Markov genes interact with NFkβ, ERK, MAPK, VEGF, growth hormone and collagen to produce a network whose top biological functions are cancer, neurological disease, and cellular movement. Three of the 10 genes - EGFR, COL4A1, and CDK4, in particular, seemed to be potential ‘hubs of activity’. Modified expression of these 10 Markov Blanket genes increases lifetime risk of developing glioblastoma compared to the normal population. The glioblastoma risk estimates were dramatically increased with joint effects of 4 or more than 4 Markov Blanket genes. Joint interaction effects of 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10 Markov Blanket genes produced 9, 13, 20.9, 26.7, 52.8, 53.2, 78.1 or 85.9%, respectively, increase in lifetime risk of developing glioblastoma compared to normal population. In summary, it appears that modified expression of several ‘key genes’ may be required for the development of glioblastoma. Further studies are needed to validate these ‘key genes’ as useful tools for early detection and novel therapeutic options for these tumors.

Against small arms: An analysis of an international network

Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) proliferation was undertaken by the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) as the next important issue in international relations after the success of the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL). This dissertation focuses on the reasons why the issue of SALW resulted in an Action Program rather than an international convention. Thus, this result was considered as unsuccessful by the advocates of regulating the illicit trade in SALW. The study provides a social movement theoretical approach, using framing, political opportunity and network analysis to explain why the advocates of regulating the illicit trade in SALW did no succeed in their goals. The UN is taken as the arena in which NGOs, States and International Governmental Organizations (IGOs) discussed the illicit trade in SALW. ^ The findings of the study indicate that the political opportunity for the issue of SALW was not ideal. The network of NGOs, States and IGOs was not strong. The NGOs advocating regulation of SALW were divided over the approach of the issue and were part of different coalitions with differing objectives. Despite initial widespread interest among States, only a couple of States were fully committed to the issue till the end. The regional IGOs approached the issue based on their regional priorities and were less interested in an international covenant. The advocates of regulating illicit trade in SALW attempted to frame SALW as a humanitarian issue rather than as a security issue. Thus they were not able to use frame alignment to convince states to treat SALW as a humanitarian issue. In conclusion it can be said that all three items, framing, political opportunity and the network, play a role in the lack of success of advocates for regulating the illicit trade in SALW. ^

Social Network Structure as a Critical Success Condition for Open Source Software Project Communities

In recent years, a surprising new phenomenon has emerged in which globally-distributed online communities collaborate to create useful and sophisticated computer software. These open source software groups are comprised of generally unaffiliated individuals and organizations who work in a seemingly chaotic fashion and who participate on a voluntary basis without direct financial incentive. The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the social network structure of these intriguing groups and their level of output and activity, where social network structure is defined as 1) closure or connectedness within the group, 2) bridging ties which extend outside of the group, and 3) leader centrality within the group. Based on well-tested theories of social capital and centrality in teams, propositions were formulated which suggest that social network structures associated with successful open source software project communities will exhibit high levels of bridging and moderate levels of closure and leader centrality. The research setting was the SourceForge hosting organization and a study population of 143 project communities was identified. Independent variables included measures of closure and leader centrality defined over conversational ties, along with measures of bridging defined over membership ties. Dependent variables included source code commits and software releases for community output, and software downloads and project site page views for community activity. A cross-sectional study design was used and archival data were extracted and aggregated for the two-year period following the first release of project software. The resulting compiled variables were analyzed using multiple linear and quadratic regressions, controlling for group size and conversational volume. Contrary to theory-based expectations, the surprising results showed that successful project groups exhibited low levels of closure and that the levels of bridging and leader centrality were not important factors of success. These findings suggest that the creation and use of open source software may represent a fundamentally new socio-technical development process which disrupts the team paradigm and which triggers the need for building new theories of collaborative development. These new theories could point towards the broader application of open source methods for the creation of knowledge-based products other than software.

Elemental analysis and forensic comparison of soils by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS)

The elemental analysis of soil is useful in forensic and environmental sciences. Methods were developed and optimized for two laser-based multi-element analysis techniques: laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). This work represents the first use of a 266 nm laser for forensic soil analysis by LIBS. Sample preparation methods were developed and optimized for a variety of sample types, including pellets for large bulk soil specimens (470 mg) and sediment-laden filters (47 mg), and tape-mounting for small transfer evidence specimens (10 mg). Analytical performance for sediment filter pellets and tape-mounted soils was similar to that achieved with bulk pellets. An inter-laboratory comparison exercise was designed to evaluate the performance of the LA-ICP-MS and LIBS methods, as well as for micro X-ray fluorescence (μXRF), across multiple laboratories. Limits of detection (LODs) were 0.01-23 ppm for LA-ICP-MS, 0.25-574 ppm for LIBS, 16-4400 ppm for μXRF, and well below the levels normally seen in soils. Good intra-laboratory precision (≤ 6 % relative standard deviation (RSD) for LA-ICP-MS; ≤ 8 % for μXRF; ≤ 17 % for LIBS) and inter-laboratory precision (≤ 19 % for LA-ICP-MS; ≤ 25 % for μXRF) were achieved for most elements, which is encouraging for a first inter-laboratory exercise. While LIBS generally has higher LODs and RSDs than LA-ICP-MS, both were capable of generating good quality multi-element data sufficient for discrimination purposes. Multivariate methods using principal components analysis (PCA) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) were developed for discriminations of soils from different sources. Specimens from different sites that were indistinguishable by color alone were discriminated by elemental analysis. Correct classification rates of 94.5 % or better were achieved in a simulated forensic discrimination of three similar sites for both LIBS and LA-ICP-MS. Results for tape-mounted specimens were nearly identical to those achieved with pellets. Methods were tested on soils from USA, Canada and Tanzania. Within-site heterogeneity was site-specific. Elemental differences were greatest for specimens separated by large distances, even within the same lithology. Elemental profiles can be used to discriminate soils from different locations and narrow down locations even when mineralogy is similar.

Elemental Analysis and Forensic Comparison of Soils by Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) and Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS)

The elemental analysis of soil is useful in forensic and environmental sciences. Methods were developed and optimized for two laser-based multi-element analysis techniques: laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). This work represents the first use of a 266 nm laser for forensic soil analysis by LIBS. Sample preparation methods were developed and optimized for a variety of sample types, including pellets for large bulk soil specimens (470 mg) and sediment-laden filters (47 mg), and tape-mounting for small transfer evidence specimens (10 mg). Analytical performance for sediment filter pellets and tape-mounted soils was similar to that achieved with bulk pellets. An inter-laboratory comparison exercise was designed to evaluate the performance of the LA-ICP-MS and LIBS methods, as well as for micro X-ray fluorescence (μXRF), across multiple laboratories. Limits of detection (LODs) were 0.01-23 ppm for LA-ICP-MS, 0.25-574 ppm for LIBS, 16-4400 ppm for µXRF, and well below the levels normally seen in soils. Good intra-laboratory precision (≤ 6 % relative standard deviation (RSD) for LA-ICP-MS; ≤ 8 % for µXRF; ≤ 17 % for LIBS) and inter-laboratory precision (≤ 19 % for LA-ICP-MS; ≤ 25 % for µXRF) were achieved for most elements, which is encouraging for a first inter-laboratory exercise. While LIBS generally has higher LODs and RSDs than LA-ICP-MS, both were capable of generating good quality multi-element data sufficient for discrimination purposes. Multivariate methods using principal components analysis (PCA) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) were developed for discriminations of soils from different sources. Specimens from different sites that were indistinguishable by color alone were discriminated by elemental analysis. Correct classification rates of 94.5 % or better were achieved in a simulated forensic discrimination of three similar sites for both LIBS and LA-ICP-MS. Results for tape-mounted specimens were nearly identical to those achieved with pellets. Methods were tested on soils from USA, Canada and Tanzania. Within-site heterogeneity was site-specific. Elemental differences were greatest for specimens separated by large distances, even within the same lithology. Elemental profiles can be used to discriminate soils from different locations and narrow down locations even when mineralogy is similar.