A comprehensive study of bankruptcy prediction: Accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure

Bankruptcy prediction has been a fruitful area of research. Univariate analysis and discriminant analysis were the first methodologies used. While they perform relatively well at correctly classifying bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms, their predictive ability has come into question over time. Univariate analysis lacks the big picture that financial distress entails. Multivariate discriminant analysis requires stringent assumptions that are violated when dealing with accounting ratios and market variables. This has led to the use of more complex models such as neural networks. While the accuracy of the predictions has improved with the use of more technical models, there is still an important point missing. Accounting ratios are the usual discriminating variables used in bankruptcy prediction. However, accounting ratios are backward-looking variables. At best, they are a current snapshot of the firm. Market variables are forward-looking variables. They are determined by discounting future outcomes. Microstructure variables, such as the bid-ask spread, also contain important information. Insiders are privy to more information that the retail investor, so if any financial distress is looming, the insiders should know before the general public. Therefore, any model in bankruptcy prediction should include market and microstructure variables. That is the focus of this dissertation. The traditional models and the newer, more technical models were tested and compared to the previous literature by employing accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure variables. Our findings suggest that the more technical models are preferable, and that a mix of accounting and market variables are best at correctly classifying and predicting bankrupt firms. Multi-layer perceptron appears to be the most accurate model following the results. The set of best discriminating variables includes price, standard deviation of price, the bid-ask spread, net income to sale, working capital to total assets, and current liabilities to total assets.

The effect of mastery learning on a course in accounting information system (AIS): A comparison within public and private universities in Taiwan

The Accounting Information System (AIS) is an important course in the Department of Accounting (DoAc) of universities in Taiwan. This course is required for seniors not only because it meets the needs of the profession, but also because it provides continual study for the department's students.^ The scores of The National College and University Joint Entrance Examination (NUEE) show that students with high learning ability are admitted to public universities with high scores, while those with low learning ability are admitted only to private universities. The same situation has been found by the researcher while teaching an AIS course in DoAc of The Public Chun Shin University (CSU) and The Private Chinese Culture University (CCU).^ The purpose of this study was to determine whether low ability students enrolled in private universities in Taiwan in a mastery learning program could attain the same level as high ability students from public universities enrolled in a traditional program. An experimental design was used. The mastery learning method was used to teach three groups of seniors with low learning ability studying in the DoAc at CCU. The traditional method was used to teach the control group which consisted of senior students of DoAc of CSU with high learning ability. As a part of the mastery learning strategy, a formative test, quizzes, and homework were completed by the experimental group only, while the mid-term examination was completed by both groups as part of the course. The dependent variable was the summative test, the final examination. It was completed by both groups upon the course's completion.^ As predicted, there were significant differences between the two groups' results on the pretest. There were no significant differences between the two groups' results on the posttest. These findings support the hypothesis of the study and reveal the effectiveness of mastery learning strategies with low learning ability students. ^

Earnings management using estimates and the timing of adoption of accounting standards: An empirical examination of pensions

This study investigates the relationship between adoption timing of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 87 and earnings management after adoption. Earnings management, defined consistent with Schipper (1989), is tested through hypotheses using (1) a portfolio approach and (2) pension rates. One Hypothesis uses a Modified Jones (1991) Model as a proxy for discretionary accruals and the other uses pension rate estimates.^ Statistically significant relationships are found between adoption timing and (1) discretionary accruals and (2) estimated rate-of-return (ROR) on pension plan assets. Early adopting firms tend to have lower discretionary accruals after adoption than on-time adopters. They also tend to use higher ROR estimates which are not supported by higher actual returns. Thus, while early adopters may be using ROR to manage income, this tends to not result in higher discretionary accruals. ^

An examination of accounting and auditing issues related to strategic environmental initiatives

Although corporate environmental accountability is receiving unprecedented attention in the United States from policy makers, the capital market, and the public at large, extant research is limited in its examination of the implications of strategic corporate environmental initiatives on accounting and auditing. The purpose of my dissertation is to address these implications by examining the association between firm environmental initiatives and audit fees, capital expenditures, and earnings quality using multivariate regression analysis. I find that firms engaged in more strategic environmental initiatives tend to have significantly higher audit fees and capital expenditures, and significantly lower levels of earnings manipulation measured using discretionary accruals. These results support the notion that auditors do recognize the importance of environmental initiatives when conducting the year-end financial statement audit, an idea that positively reflects upon the auditor’s monitoring role. The results also demonstrate the increased amount of capital resources required to participate in strategic environmental initiatives, an anecdotal notion that had yet to be empirically supported. This empirical support provides valuable insights on how environmental initiatives materially impact corporate financial statements. Finally, my results extend the extant literature by demonstrating that the superior financial performance reported by environmentally active firms is less likely driven by earnings manipulation by management, and by implication, more likely a result of real economic gains. Taken together, my dissertation establishes a strong and timely foundation for current and future research to explore corporate environmental initiatives in the United States and globally, a topic increasingly gaining momentum in today’s more eco-conscious world.^

Franchising in the Hospitality Industry: Accounting Aspects

Franchised businesses are a powerful factor in the American economy. The author provides a general overview of the area, citing statistics supporting its growth in the industry. Attention will be focused on accounting aspects of franchising, placing major emphasis on issues associated with the recognition of franchise fee revenue.

Controllers' Perceptions of the Importance of Accounting Skills to Lodging Managers

Are managerial accounting skills important to all managers? Which of the common managerial accounting skills are the most important to the non- accounting manager? The authors report on their descriptive research gathered from controllers in the hospitality industry which provides guide- lines for managers in these areas.

Industry Expresses Attitudes Toward Accounting, Finance Curricula

A survey of hospitality financial executives provides guidance for those planning accounting and finance curricula for schools of hospitality management. The authors discuss the results of their survey sponsored by the Association of Hospitality Financial Management Educators.

Private Club Financial Performance

This article reveals the median financial results for the club industry for 2011 using 24 financial ratios. The results are based on the submission of balance sheet and selected income statement numbers from 80 clubs. The ratios are reported as median results for the entire sample as well as the median results for the top and low performing clubs delineated by return on assets. The biggest differences between the two extreme groups of clubs are (1) average collection period, (2) operating cash flows to current liabilities and long-term debt, (3) fines interest earned, (4) fixed charge coverage ratio, (5) food and beverage inventory turnovers, (6) profit margin, (7) return on assets, (8) operating efficiency ratio, (9) labor cost percentage.

The market value implications of pension asset allocation

Pension funds have been part of the private sector since the 1850's. Defined Benefit pension plans [DB], where a company promises to make regular contributions to investment accounts held for participating employees in order to pay a promised lifelong annuity, are significant capital markets participants, amounting to 2.3 trillion dollars in 2010 (Federal Reserve Board, 2013). In 2006, Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No.158 (SFAS 158), Employers' Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postemployment Plans, shifted information concerning funding status and pension asset/liability composition from disclosure in the footnotes to recognition in the financial statements. I add to the literature by being the first to examine the effect of recent pension reform during the financial crisis of 2008-09. This dissertation is comprised of three related essays. In my first essay, I investigate whether investors assign different pricing multiples to the various classes of pension assets when valuing firms. The pricing multiples on all classes of assets are significantly different from each other, but only investments in bonds and equities were value-relevant during the recent financial crisis. Consistent with investors viewing pension liabilities as liabilities of the firm, the pricing multiples on pension liabilities are significantly larger than those on non-pension liabilities. The only pension costs significantly associated with firm value are actual rate of return and interest expense. In my second essay, I investigate the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows, extending the Barth et al. (2001a) model of the accrual process. Using market value of equity as a proxy for cash flows, the results of this study suggest that aggregate accounting amounts mask how the components of earnings affect investors' ability to predict future cash flows. Disaggregating pension earnings components and accruals results in an increase in predictive power. During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, however, investors placed a greater (and negative) weight on the incremental information contained in the individual components of accruals. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications of accruals. Finally, in my third essay I investigate how investors view under-funded plans. On average, investors: view deficits arising from under-funded plans as belonging to the firm; reward firms with fully or over-funded pension plans; and encourage those funds with unfunded pension plans to become funded. Investors also encourage conservative pension asset allocations to mitigate firm risk, and smaller firms are perceived as being better able to handle the risk associated with underfunded plans. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009 underfunded status had a lower negative association with market value. In all three models, there are significant differences in pre- and post- SFAS 158 periods. These results are robust to various scenarios of the timing of the financial crisis and an alternative measure of funding.