Development, validation and uncertainty analysis of quantitative structure and activity relationship models for Log P of disinfection by -products

Hydrophobicity as measured by Log P is an important molecular property related to toxicity and carcinogenicity. With increasing public health concerns for the effects of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs), there are considerable benefits in developing Quantitative Structure and Activity Relationship (QSAR) models capable of accurately predicting Log P. In this research, Log P values of 173 DBP compounds in 6 functional classes were used to develop QSAR models, by applying 3 molecular descriptors, namely, Energy of the Lowest Unoccupied Molecular Orbital (ELUMO), Number of Chlorine (NCl) and Number of Carbon (NC) by Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis. The QSAR models developed were validated based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) principles. The model Applicability Domain (AD) and mechanistic interpretation were explored. Considering the very complex nature of DBPs, the established QSAR models performed very well with respect to goodness-of-fit, robustness and predictability. The predicted values of Log P of DBPs by the QSAR models were found to be significant with a correlation coefficient R2 from 81% to 98%. The Leverage Approach by Williams Plot was applied to detect and remove outliers, consequently increasing R 2 by approximately 2% to 13% for different DBP classes. The developed QSAR models were statistically validated for their predictive power by the Leave-One-Out (LOO) and Leave-Many-Out (LMO) cross validation methods. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the variations and inherent uncertainties in the QSAR models of Log P and determine the most influential parameters in connection with Log P prediction. The developed QSAR models in this dissertation will have a broad applicability domain because the research data set covered six out of eight common DBP classes, including halogenated alkane, halogenated alkene, halogenated aromatic, halogenated aldehyde, halogenated ketone, and halogenated carboxylic acid, which have been brought to the attention of regulatory agencies in recent years. Furthermore, the QSAR models are suitable to be used for prediction of similar DBP compounds within the same applicability domain. The selection and integration of various methodologies developed in this research may also benefit future research in similar fields.

Chlorine contribution to quantitative structure and activity relationship models of disinfection by -products' quantum chemical descriptors and toxicities

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: (1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (E LUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; (2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; (3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl ) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: (1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); (2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and (3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: (1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; (2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; (3) E LUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and (4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.

Chlorine Contribution to Quantitative Structure and Activity Relationship Models of Disinfection By-Products' Quantum Chemical Descriptors and Toxicities

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: 1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (ELUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; 2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; 3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: 1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); 2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and 3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: 1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; 2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; 3) ELUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and 4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.

Multidimensional classification and diagnosis of leukemia in flow cytometry

This research is to establish new optimization methods for pattern recognition and classification of different white blood cells in actual patient data to enhance the process of diagnosis. Beckman-Coulter Corporation supplied flow cytometry data of numerous patients that are used as training sets to exploit the different physiological characteristics of the different samples provided. The methods of Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used as promising pattern classification techniques to identify different white blood cell samples and provide information to medical doctors in the form of diagnostic references for the specific disease states, leukemia. The obtained results prove that when a neural network classifier is well configured and trained with cross-validation, it can perform better than support vector classifiers alone for this type of data. Furthermore, a new unsupervised learning algorithm---Density based Adaptive Window Clustering algorithm (DAWC) was designed to process large volumes of data for finding location of high data cluster in real-time. It reduces the computational load to ∼O(N) number of computations, and thus making the algorithm more attractive and faster than current hierarchical algorithms.

A research platform for artificial neural networks with applications in pediatric epilepsy

This dissertation established a state-of-the-art programming tool for designing and training artificial neural networks (ANNs) and showed its applicability to brain research. The developed tool, called NeuralStudio, allows users without programming skills to conduct studies based on ANNs in a powerful and very user friendly interface. A series of unique features has been implemented in NeuralStudio, such as ROC analysis, cross-validation, network averaging, topology optimization, and optimization of the activation function’s slopes. It also included a Support Vector Machines module for comparison purposes. Once the tool was fully developed, it was applied to two studies in brain research. In the first study, the goal was to create and train an ANN to detect epileptic seizures from subdural EEG. This analysis involved extracting features from the spectral power in the gamma frequencies. In the second application, a unique method was devised to link EEG recordings to epileptic and nonepileptic subjects. The contribution of this method consisted of developing a descriptor matrix that can be used to represent any EEG file regarding its duration and the number of electrodes. The first study showed that the inter-electrode mean of the spectral power in the gamma frequencies and its duration above a specific threshold performs better than the other frequencies in seizure detection, exhibiting an accuracy of 95.90%, a sensitivity of 92.59%, and a specificity of 96.84%. The second study yielded that Hjorth’s parameter activity is sufficient to accurately relate EEG to epileptic and non-epileptic subjects. After testing, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the classifier were all above 0.9667. Statistical tests measured the superiority of activity at over 99.99 % certainty. It was demonstrated that (1) the spectral power in the gamma frequencies is highly effective in locating seizures from EEG and (2) activity can be used to link EEG recordings to epileptic and non-epileptic subjects. These two studies required high computational load and could be addressed thanks to NeuralStudio. From a medical perspective, both methods proved the merits of NeuralStudio in brain research applications. For its outstanding features, NeuralStudio has been recently awarded a patent (US patent No. 7502763).

Reverse Engineering of Modified Genes by Bayesian Network Analysis Defines Molecular Determinants Critical to the Development of Glioblastoma

In this study we have identified key genes that are critical in development of astrocytic tumors. Meta-analysis of microarray studies which compared normal tissue to astrocytoma revealed a set of 646 differentially expressed genes in the majority of astrocytoma. Reverse engineering of these 646 genes using Bayesian network analysis produced a gene network for each grade of astrocytoma (Grade I–IV), and ‘key genes’ within each grade were identified. Genes found to be most influential to development of the highest grade of astrocytoma, Glioblastoma multiforme were: COL4A1, EGFR, BTF3, MPP2, RAB31, CDK4, CD99, ANXA2, TOP2A, and SERBP1. All of these genes were up-regulated, except MPP2 (down regulated). These 10 genes were able to predict tumor status with 96–100% confidence when using logistic regression, cross validation, and the support vector machine analysis. Markov genes interact with NFkβ, ERK, MAPK, VEGF, growth hormone and collagen to produce a network whose top biological functions are cancer, neurological disease, and cellular movement. Three of the 10 genes - EGFR, COL4A1, and CDK4, in particular, seemed to be potential ‘hubs of activity’. Modified expression of these 10 Markov Blanket genes increases lifetime risk of developing glioblastoma compared to the normal population. The glioblastoma risk estimates were dramatically increased with joint effects of 4 or more than 4 Markov Blanket genes. Joint interaction effects of 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10 Markov Blanket genes produced 9, 13, 20.9, 26.7, 52.8, 53.2, 78.1 or 85.9%, respectively, increase in lifetime risk of developing glioblastoma compared to normal population. In summary, it appears that modified expression of several ‘key genes’ may be required for the development of glioblastoma. Further studies are needed to validate these ‘key genes’ as useful tools for early detection and novel therapeutic options for these tumors.

A Research Platform for Artificial Neural Networks with Applications in Pediatric Epilepsy

This dissertation established a state-of-the-art programming tool for designing and training artificial neural networks (ANNs) and showed its applicability to brain research. The developed tool, called NeuralStudio, allows users without programming skills to conduct studies based on ANNs in a powerful and very user friendly interface. A series of unique features has been implemented in NeuralStudio, such as ROC analysis, cross-validation, network averaging, topology optimization, and optimization of the activation function’s slopes. It also included a Support Vector Machines module for comparison purposes. Once the tool was fully developed, it was applied to two studies in brain research. In the first study, the goal was to create and train an ANN to detect epileptic seizures from subdural EEG. This analysis involved extracting features from the spectral power in the gamma frequencies. In the second application, a unique method was devised to link EEG recordings to epileptic and non-epileptic subjects. The contribution of this method consisted of developing a descriptor matrix that can be used to represent any EEG file regarding its duration and the number of electrodes. The first study showed that the inter-electrode mean of the spectral power in the gamma frequencies and its duration above a specific threshold performs better than the other frequencies in seizure detection, exhibiting an accuracy of 95.90%, a sensitivity of 92.59%, and a specificity of 96.84%. The second study yielded that Hjorth’s parameter activity is sufficient to accurately relate EEG to epileptic and non-epileptic subjects. After testing, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the classifier were all above 0.9667. Statistical tests measured the superiority of activity at over 99.99 % certainty. It was demonstrated that 1) the spectral power in the gamma frequencies is highly effective in locating seizures from EEG and 2) activity can be used to link EEG recordings to epileptic and non-epileptic subjects. These two studies required high computational load and could be addressed thanks to NeuralStudio. From a medical perspective, both methods proved the merits of NeuralStudio in brain research applications. For its outstanding features, NeuralStudio has been recently awarded a patent (US patent No. 7502763).