The efficacy of the Ellison model as a retention initiative for first semester freshmen

The freshman year is the most critical year of matriculation for students in higher education. One in four freshman students drops out of higher education after the first year. In fact, the first two to six weeks of college represent a very critical transition period when students make the decision to persist or depart from the institution. Many students leave because they are unable to make a connection with the institution. Retention is often profoundly affected by student involvement in the academic environment, satisfaction with the campus climate and the institution's response to diversity. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine and evaluate an effective institutional response that promotes freshman retention and academic success. The tenets (diversity training, conflict management, and community building) of a mentoring model were applied to the freshman experience seminar class (experimental group) as a pedagogical method of instruction to determine its efficacy as a retention initiative when compared with the traditional freshman experience seminar class (comparison group). ^ The quantitative study employed a quasi-experimental research design based on Astin's (1993) I-E-O model. The model examined the relationships between the characteristics students bring with them to college, called inputs, their experiences in the environment during college, and the outcomes students achieved during matriculation. Fifty-two students enrolled in the freshman seminar class participated in the study. ^ Demographic data and input variables between groups were analyzed using chi-square, t-tests and multivariate analyses. Overall, students in the experimental group had significantly higher satisfaction (campus climate) scores than the comparison group. An analysis of the students' willingness to interact with others from diverse groups indicated a significant difference between groups, with the experimental group scoring higher than the comparison group. Students in the experimental group were significantly more involved in campus activities than students in the comparison group. No significant differences were found between groups relative to the mean grade point average and re-enrollment for fall semester 2001. ^ While the mentoring model did not directly affect re-enrollment of students, the model did promote student satisfaction with the institution, an appreciation for diversity of contact and it encouraged involvement in the campus community. These are all essential outcomes of a quality retention program. ^

Improved Criteria for Estimating Calibration Factors for Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Applications

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) estimates roadway safety performance based on predictive models that were calibrated using national data. Calibration factors are then used to adjust these predictive models to local conditions for local applications. The HSM recommends that local calibration factors be estimated using 30 to 50 randomly selected sites that experienced at least a total of 100 crashes per year. It also recommends that the factors be updated every two to three years, preferably on an annual basis. However, these recommendations are primarily based on expert opinions rather than data-driven research findings. Furthermore, most agencies do not have data for many of the input variables recommended in the HSM. This dissertation is aimed at determining the best way to meet three major data needs affecting the estimation of calibration factors: (1) the required minimum sample sizes for different roadway facilities, (2) the required frequency for calibration factor updates, and (3) the influential variables affecting calibration factors. In this dissertation, statewide segment and intersection data were first collected for most of the HSM recommended calibration variables using a Google Maps application. In addition, eight years (2005-2012) of traffic and crash data were retrieved from existing databases from the Florida Department of Transportation. With these data, the effect of sample size criterion on calibration factor estimates was first studied using a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the minimum sample sizes not only vary across different roadway facilities, but they are also significantly higher than those recommended in the HSM. In addition, results from paired sample t-tests showed that calibration factors in Florida need to be updated annually. To identify influential variables affecting the calibration factors for roadway segments, the variables were prioritized by combining the results from three different methods: negative binomial regression, random forests, and boosted regression trees. Only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data. Traffic volume was consistently found to be the most influential. In addition, roadside object density, major and minor commercial driveway densities, and minor residential driveway density were also identified as influential variables.