A static traffic assignment model combined with an artificial neural network delay model

As traffic congestion continues to worsen in large urban areas, solutions are urgently sought. However, transportation planning models, which estimate traffic volumes on transportation network links, are often unable to realistically consider travel time delays at intersections. Introducing signal controls in models often result in significant and unstable changes in network attributes, which, in turn, leads to instability of models. Ignoring the effect of delays at intersections makes the model output inaccurate and unable to predict travel time. To represent traffic conditions in a network more accurately, planning models should be capable of arriving at a network solution based on travel costs that are consistent with the intersection delays due to signal controls. This research attempts to achieve this goal by optimizing signal controls and estimating intersection delays accordingly, which are then used in traffic assignment. Simultaneous optimization of traffic routing and signal controls has not been accomplished in real-world applications of traffic assignment. To this end, a delay model dealing with five major types of intersections has been developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs). An ANN architecture consists of interconnecting artificial neurons. The architecture may either be used to gain an understanding of biological neural networks, or for solving artificial intelligence problems without necessarily creating a model of a real biological system. The ANN delay model has been trained using extensive simulations based on TRANSYT-7F signal optimizations. The delay estimates by the ANN delay model have percentage root-mean-squared errors (%RMSE) that are less than 25.6%, which is satisfactory for planning purposes. Larger prediction errors are typically associated with severely oversaturated conditions. A combined system has also been developed that includes the artificial neural network (ANN) delay estimating model and a user-equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment model. The combined system employs the Frank-Wolfe method to achieve a convergent solution. Because the ANN delay model provides no derivatives of the delay function, a Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) method is applied to assist in and expedite the iterative process of the Frank-Wolfe method. The performance of the combined system confirms that the convergence of the solution is achieved, although the global optimum may not be guaranteed.

Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

Effect of delay of first interview and repetition of interview on accuracy and confidence of recall of a flashbulb -type memory

Hearing of the news of the death of Diana, Princess of Wales, in a traffic accident, is taken as an analogue for being a percipient but uninvolved witness to a crime, or a witness to another person's sudden confession to some illegal act. This event (known in the literature as a “reception event”) has previously been hypothesized to cause one to form a special type of memory commonly known as a “flashbulb memory” (FB) (Brown and Kulik, 1977). FB's are hypothesized to be especially resilient against forgetting, highly detailed including peripheral details, clear, and inspiring great confidence in the individual for their accuracy. FB's are dependent for their formation upon surprise, emotional valence, and impact, or consequentiality to the witness of the initiating event. FB's are thought to be enhanced by frequent rehearsal. FB's are very important in the context of criminal investigation and litigation in that investigators and jurors usually place great store in witnesses, regardless of their actual accuracy, who claim to have a clear and complete recollection of an event, and who express this confidently. Therefore, the lives, or at least the freedom, of criminal defendants, and the fortunes of civil litigants hang on the testimony of witnesses professing to have FB's. ^ In this study, which includes a large and diverse sample (N = 305), participants were surveyed within 2–4 days after hearing of the fatal accident, and again at intervals of 2 and 4 weeks, 6, 12, and 18 months. Contrary to the FB hypothesis, I found that participants' FB's degraded over time beginning at least as early as two weeks post event. At about 12 months the memory trace stabilized, resisting further degradation. Repeated interviewing did not have any negative affect upon accuracy, contrary to concerns in the literature. Analysis by correlation and regression indicated no effect or predictive power for participant age, emotionality, confidence, or student status, as related to accuracy of recall; nor was participant confidence in accuracy predicted by emotional impact as hypothesized. Results also indicate that, contrary to the notions of investigators and jurors, witnesses become more inaccurate over time regardless of their confidence in their memories, even for highly emotional events. ^

A Static Traffic Assignment Model Combined with an Artificial Neural Network Delay Model

As traffic congestion continues to worsen in large urban areas, solutions are urgently sought. However, transportation planning models, which estimate traffic volumes on transportation network links, are often unable to realistically consider travel time delays at intersections. Introducing signal controls in models often result in significant and unstable changes in network attributes, which, in turn, leads to instability of models. Ignoring the effect of delays at intersections makes the model output inaccurate and unable to predict travel time. To represent traffic conditions in a network more accurately, planning models should be capable of arriving at a network solution based on travel costs that are consistent with the intersection delays due to signal controls. This research attempts to achieve this goal by optimizing signal controls and estimating intersection delays accordingly, which are then used in traffic assignment. Simultaneous optimization of traffic routing and signal controls has not been accomplished in real-world applications of traffic assignment. To this end, a delay model dealing with five major types of intersections has been developed using artificial neural networks (ANNs). An ANN architecture consists of interconnecting artificial neurons. The architecture may either be used to gain an understanding of biological neural networks, or for solving artificial intelligence problems without necessarily creating a model of a real biological system. The ANN delay model has been trained using extensive simulations based on TRANSYT-7F signal optimizations. The delay estimates by the ANN delay model have percentage root-mean-squared errors (%RMSE) that are less than 25.6%, which is satisfactory for planning purposes. Larger prediction errors are typically associated with severely oversaturated conditions. A combined system has also been developed that includes the artificial neural network (ANN) delay estimating model and a user-equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment model. The combined system employs the Frank-Wolfe method to achieve a convergent solution. Because the ANN delay model provides no derivatives of the delay function, a Mesh Adaptive Direct Search (MADS) method is applied to assist in and expedite the iterative process of the Frank-Wolfe method. The performance of the combined system confirms that the convergence of the solution is achieved, although the global optimum may not be guaranteed.

Delay-sensitive service request scheduling for cloud computing

Cloud computing realizes the long-held dream of converting computing capability into a type of utility. It has the potential to fundamentally change the landscape of the IT industry and our way of life. However, as cloud computing expanding substantially in both scale and scope, ensuring its sustainable growth is a critical problem. Service providers have long been suffering from high operational costs. Especially the costs associated with the skyrocketing power consumption of large data centers. In the meantime, while efficient power/energy utilization is indispensable for the sustainable growth of cloud computing, service providers must also satisfy a user's quality of service (QoS) requirements. This problem becomes even more challenging considering the increasingly stringent power/energy and QoS constraints, as well as other factors such as the highly dynamic, heterogeneous, and distributed nature of the computing infrastructures, etc. ^ In this dissertation, we study the problem of delay-sensitive cloud service scheduling for the sustainable development of cloud computing. We first focus our research on the development of scheduling methods for delay-sensitive cloud services on a single server with the goal of maximizing a service provider's profit. We then extend our study to scheduling cloud services in distributed environments. In particular, we develop a queue-based model and derive efficient request dispatching and processing decisions in a multi-electricity-market environment to improve the profits for service providers. We next study a problem of multi-tier service scheduling. By carefully assigning sub deadlines to the service tiers, our approach can significantly improve resource usage efficiencies with statistically guaranteed QoS. Finally, we study the power conscious resource provision problem for service requests with different QoS requirements. By properly sharing computing resources among different requests, our method statistically guarantees all QoS requirements with a minimized number of powered-on servers and thus the power consumptions. The significance of our research is that it is one part of the integrated effort from both industry and academia to ensure the sustainable growth of cloud computing as it continues to evolve and change our society profoundly.^

Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

Delay-Sensitive Service Request Scheduling for Cloud Computing

Cloud computing realizes the long-held dream of converting computing capability into a type of utility. It has the potential to fundamentally change the landscape of the IT industry and our way of life. However, as cloud computing expanding substantially in both scale and scope, ensuring its sustainable growth is a critical problem. Service providers have long been suffering from high operational costs. Especially the costs associated with the skyrocketing power consumption of large data centers. In the meantime, while efficient power/energy utilization is indispensable for the sustainable growth of cloud computing, service providers must also satisfy a user's quality of service (QoS) requirements. This problem becomes even more challenging considering the increasingly stringent power/energy and QoS constraints, as well as other factors such as the highly dynamic, heterogeneous, and distributed nature of the computing infrastructures, etc. In this dissertation, we study the problem of delay-sensitive cloud service scheduling for the sustainable development of cloud computing. We first focus our research on the development of scheduling methods for delay-sensitive cloud services on a single server with the goal of maximizing a service provider's profit. We then extend our study to scheduling cloud services in distributed environments. In particular, we develop a queue-based model and derive efficient request dispatching and processing decisions in a multi-electricity-market environment to improve the profits for service providers. We next study a problem of multi-tier service scheduling. By carefully assigning sub deadlines to the service tiers, our approach can significantly improve resource usage efficiencies with statistically guaranteed QoS. Finally, we study the power conscious resource provision problem for service requests with different QoS requirements. By properly sharing computing resources among different requests, our method statistically guarantees all QoS requirements with a minimized number of powered-on servers and thus the power consumptions. The significance of our research is that it is one part of the integrated effort from both industry and academia to ensure the sustainable growth of cloud computing as it continues to evolve and change our society profoundly.

Effects of the Use of the Educreations Application in the Reading Comprehension of an Adolescent with Autism and Speech Delay

Comprehension is one of the most challenging aspects of reading for people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The present paper describes an action research that intends to investigate the effect of the use of the Educreations application in the reading comprehension of a 19-year-old boy with ASD and speech delay.

Effects of the Use of the Educreations Application in the Reading Comprehension of an Adolescent with Autism and Speech Delay

This paper is the final proposal that accompanies the poster presentation of the action research "Effects of the Use of the Educreations Application in the Reading Comprehension of an Adolescent with Autism and Speech Delay" in the 2015 South Florida Research Education Conference.